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Oil prices rise as fragile US-Iran talks sustain supply worries | The Express Tribune
Oil climbs as Iran peace deal fades; Hormuz tensions keep Brent above $105 and $115 in sight
By helping the world reduce oil prices from the $150-$200 range and saving hundreds of billions in import bills and high interest expense, Pakistan has earned its seat at the table. photo: REUTERS
Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Tuesday as talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran appeared fragile, with Tehran’s response to a Washington proposal highlighting stark differences that have kept supply concerns alive.
Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 0.8%, at $105.07 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 99 cents, or 1%, to $99.06 at 0411 GMT. Both benchmarks increased nearly 2.8% on Monday.
US President Donald Trump on Monday said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support,” pointing to disagreements over several demands, such as the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the removal of a US naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales and compensation for war damage.
Tehran also emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Read: Aramco CEO warns 1 billion barrels lost will slow oil market recovery
“Optimism regarding an imminent (peace) deal seems to be fading again, and if we don’t see a deal by the end of May, then upside risks for oil prices are definitely on the table,” said DBS Bank energy sector team lead Suvro Sarkar.
Disruptions linked to the near-closure of the strait have prompted producers to curtail exports, with a Reuters survey on Monday showing OPEC oil output in April fell to its lowest level in more than two decades.
“A genuine breakthrough toward a peace deal could trigger a sharp $8-$12 correction, while any escalation or renewed blockade threats would quickly push Brent back toward $115+,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on Monday warned that disruptions to oil exports through the strait could delay a return to market stability until 2027, with the loss of about 100 million barrels of oil per week.
Read More: Oil shock, falling investment threaten growth outlook
Elsewhere on the supply front, US crude stocks were forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll to be down by around 1.7 million barrels in the previous week.
The draw comes against “a backdrop of continued strong net waterborne export flows for crude and products, across the next several weeks,” said Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie Group.
Meanwhile, market participants were also keeping a close eye on Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, after Washington imposed sanctions on three individuals and nine companies for facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.
Business
From buying less gold to cashing in old reserves: How bullion industry plans to cut India’s import bill – The Times of India
As rupee continues to breach multiple record lows, pressure on India’s balance of payments is growing. To protect foreign exchange reserves and help stabilise trade balance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged people to cut down on gold purchases.But if not buying new gold, could household gold be turned into working capital instead?PM Modi’s call has brought fresh attention to an old issue, with major bullion and jewellery bodies once again suggesting steps to the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce gold imports, use more household gold, and better manage how imported gold is used.Their proposals include limiting imported gold mainly for jewellery exports, bringing jewellers into gold monetisation schemes, making gold metal loans (GML) work more like bank cash credit, and reducing tax on interest earned from gold deposits, ET reported.Meanwhile, India’s gold imports jumped 24% to a record $71.9 billion in 2025-26, with more than 721 tonnes imported during the financial year.What are the proposals:Under the system proposed by the Precious Metals Refineries Forum (PMRF), imported gold would be channelled as one-year gold metal loans (GML) for jewellery exporters, while gold collected from household deposits, once refined locally, would be used to meet domestic demand through jewellers and retailers.The model suggests that depositors could earn 2-2.5%, with GML interest rates set at around 3-4%.Industry players cited by ET have pointed out that some tax changes will be needed to make this work, especially when physical gold is converted into electronic gold receipts (EGR).“The 3% notional loss of GST amount on conversion puts off customers. The government can always recover the tax when EGR is converted back into physical gold for selling. Concessions on capital gains when deposit is encashed on maturity along with income tax relief on accrued interest could be considered,” James Jose, president of PMRF told the financial daily.Why past gold schemes failed Many in the industry believe earlier gold monetisation schemes did not succeed because jewellers were not properly included and because gold deposits and loans did not work together like a banking system. Without that, institutions accepting gold deposits face major risks from price swings and currency changes.This is why trade bodies are calling for a more complete system with bank support, secure vaults in multiple locations, renewable GMLs like working capital, and proper collateral safeguards.Indian households are estimated to hold over 30,000 tonnes of gold, but despite repeated discussions during times of trade deficit and capital outflows, there is still no strong institutional system to bring this gold into the formal economy.Commenting on why earlier schemes did not work, Rajesh Rokde, chairman of All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) said, “I feel the schemes did not take off because jewellers were not part of them. About 10-20% of the gold with families would be in bullion form. Most don’t sell, expecting prices to rise. If some gold can be tapped, if necessary purified and converted into digital gold in a system where jewellers are involved, imports would dip significantly,” According to one representation, collection and purity testing centres (Cptcs) and related agencies have said that collected gold can be processed within 48 hours before being moved by logistics firms to secure bank-approved vaults.Sources said members of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) held discussions with central bank officials last week on exports and monetisation, though the IBJA spokesman declined to share details.
Business
China should stop hoarding food and fertiliser, says former World Bank chief
David Malpass also said that Beijing’s claim to be a developing nation is no longer credible.
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Retailers hope for World Cup boost as high street sales tumble
Struggling retailers are hoping for a bumper World Cup to boost the high street and improve consumer confidence.
Footfall figures, which measure trips rather than expenditure, already suggested that many shoppers have all but abandoned the UK high street.
The latest sales figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) show that sales fell 3 per cent in April compared to growth of 7 per cent in the same month a year ago.
That’s partly because Easter was in March this year, but even adjusting for that, the figures are disappointing for retailers.
Food sales decreased by 2.5 per cent year-on-year in April, against a growth of 8.2 per cent in April 2025. This was below the 12-month average growth of 3.5 per cent.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive at the BRC, said: “April’s sales fall was largely driven by the Easter shift, with food hit hardest. But weak consumer confidence also played a role as fears about the Middle East conflict driving up living costs led shoppers to rein in.
“Big-ticket purchases fell, with the recent recovery in furniture losing steam, and uncertainty around summer holidays hitting discretionary spend. With the World Cup coming, retailers hope it will provide a lift, and early signs show demand for TVs and sound systems picking up.”
Retailers have already warned about the effects of the Iran war on consumer spending, as food and fuel prices are forced upwards.
The BRC has asked the government to delay various regulatory burdens, including energy policy levies and packaging taxes.
According to the British Beer and Pubs Association, the World Cup could give the pub trade a £275m boost if England make it to the final. An extra 55 million pints would be drunk, the trade body said.
Pubs are currently closing at the rate of two a day, putting the future of the British boozer at risk.
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, said: “It was a disappointing April for the retail sector, even factoring in an earlier Easter shifting some spending into March. Bar marginal growth for beauty, health and jewellery, retail sales fell across all other categories.
“Consumer confidence has been further dampened by rising prices due to the Iran conflict, with consumers cautious about potential ongoing effects. As a result, the retail sector is facing a challenging start to spring/summer, but there is hope that holiday demand and the World Cup still manage to unlock spending in the weeks and months ahead.”
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