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Our hottest early MLB playoff hot takes: From one pitch deciding October to the Jays averaging … how many runs per game?!

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Our hottest early MLB playoff hot takes: From one pitch deciding October to the Jays averaging … how many runs per game?!


We’re one week into the 2025 MLB playoffs, with two games having now been played in all four division series matchups.

In the small-sample-size world of October baseball, it might seem like that means we’ve seen enough to know a lot. But the reality for a sport that combines 162-game seasons with the chaos of short playoff series is: Things can change in a hurry this time of year.

As we do early in every MLB regular season, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed by giving us their boldest prediction for the rest of the postseason based on what they’ve seen so far.

Some of our predictions are quite bold, whereas others took a milder approach. But all of them have a chance of becoming smokin’ hot by the time the World Series trophy is raised this month — or ending up freezing cold.

The themes that we’ll all be talking about

All four division series will go five games

The division series was introduced 30 years ago, and only once, in 2012, did all four of them go the distance. It’ll happen again this year — even though three of the four have already begun with a 2-0 lead.

The gap among the eight remaining playoff contenders feels smaller this year than it has in quite a while, especially with arguably the two best, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, squaring off so early. The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are perfectly capable of winning back-to-games at home. The series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, which began with a split in Seattle, seems primed to extend into a fifth game. And though the Phillies have their backs against the wall, coming off two straight losses in Philadelphia, they have the ability to take two in a row at Dodger Stadium — heck, they did it less than a month ago. — Alden Gonzalez


One pitch will decide October

The team that wins the World Series will be the team that has the best differential in performance between throwing splitters and hitting them. Do I know if this will happen? Definitely not! But the proliferation of splitters so far in the postseason has been staggering.

TruMedia has pitch-type data going back to 2008. The percentage of pitches classified as splitters has ranged from 0.2% (2016) to 3.1% (2023). So far this year: 5.7%. The leading practitioners: the Toronto Blue Jays, by far, at 25.9%, mostly thanks to Kevin Gausman and the amazing Trey Yesavage. Incidentally, they were also by far the best-hitting team against splitters in the regular season (.346 WOBA). Guess this means the Jays are going to win it all. — Bradford Doolittle


The success of the splitter this October will make it the most-talked-about pitch in the spring

The eye-opening postseason performances of Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Roki Sasaki will serve as jet fuel for the rising popularity of the split-fingered fastball. There was already growing interest in the splitter throughout the 2025 season, thanks to the success of the likes of Hurston Waldrep. Then, along came Yesavage and Gausman and their diving splitters, neutralizing the powerful Yankees: In the first two games of the ALDS, New York was 0-for-22 with 13 strikeouts in at-bats ending with a splitter. The Yankees swung at splitters 39 times and missed 24 times. In a copycat industry, you can bet a ton of pitchers will be tinkering with splitters before next spring, just as hundreds of pitchers adopted cutters because of Mariano Rivera. — Buster Olney

The stars who will shine all postseason

Cal Raleigh will outhomer every other 60-home-run hitter in the postseason — combined

The Mariners’ star slugger just became the fifth player to reach the postseason on the heels of a 60-homer season. The others?

1927 Babe Ruth: 2 HR in 4 games
1961 Roger Maris: 1 HR in 5 games
1998 Sammy Sosa: 0 HR in 3 games
2022 Aaron Judge: 2 HR in 9 games

Raleigh didn’t leave the yard in the first two games of the ALDS against Detroit, but he did collect four hits while Julio Rodriguez, batting behind him, supplied the power. Given Seattle’s balance, depth and October path, it’s easy to envision a long run — and with it, at least half a dozen blasts from the Big Dumper. — Paul Hembekides


Jackson Chourio will become the 10th player to win both LCS and World Series MVPs

Why doubt the Milwaukee Brewers now? They’ve enjoyed a magical run to this point and have looked great at the onset of the division series. Chourio has been quite the table-setter — he had three hits in two innings in Game 1 — and he’s one of the game’s budding superstars. This October is his breakout party. — Tristan Cockcroft


Roki Sasaki, Jhoan Duran and Andres Munoz will post nothing but zeros

This trio — two relief aces and a starter-turned-closer for the playoffs — won’t give up an earned run in either the LDS or LCS. Munoz and Duran were two of the top relievers in the sport this year, and Sasaki started looking like one in the past couple of weeks, which my colleague Jeff Passan broke down in his dive into how the Dodgers fixed their flamethrower. — Kiley McDaniel


Roki Sasaki Clayton Kershaw will record the final out of the 2025 World Series

As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts goes game to game in the postseason trying to figure out exactly which relievers he can trust in a big moment, how about this for the ultimate scenario: Kershaw, in his final pitch in the majors, gets that final out. Maybe it’s a save. Maybe it’s a blowout. Maybe the game goes extra innings. Maybe it’s an act of desperation after Roberts uses Roki Sasaki — who’s looking more and more like Roberts’ closer — earlier in the game. And that final pitch? A big, looping 72 mph curveball. — David Schoenfield

The teams that we’ll be watching all October

The Blue Jays will average 10 runs per game in the playoffs

Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and pals are certainly off to a great start, but why stop after two blowout wins over the Yankees? The Blue Jays hammered Luis Gil, Max Fried, Will Warren and Luke Weaver. Will Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler (maybe, if the series goes to Game 4) and whichever pitchers other remaining teams throw at the Blue Jays do better? Probably, but Vlad Jr., Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and eventually Bo Bichette are ready to make history! — Eric Karabell


Toronto won’t lose a game until the World Series

The Blue Jays have enough pitching to win every game on the way to the World Series. So much so that Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt weren’t even needed in the ALDS and were left off the roster. They might be in the ALCS, but even then, Toronto will have choices to make for its rotation. The emergence of rookie Trey Yesavage has changed the calculus for the Jays on the mound, giving them more options than most teams at this time of year.

Add in the potential return of Bichette, Toronto’s great home record (tops in the AL) and a potential long series between the Tigers and Mariners on the other side of the AL bracket, and the Blue Jays are set up for a potential undefeated run to the Fall Classic. Their smoking hot offense might get them there on its own. — Jesse Rogers


The Yankees will send the ALDS back to Toronto

As underwater as they look, the Yankees have a pathway back into this series despite a 2-0 deficit. Shane Bieber, the Blue Jays’ Game 3 starter, is going to fill up the strike zone — and has been homer-prone in recent starts. And with the short porch in right field calling, the Yankees’ left-handed bats will answer. Getting to Game 4 brings Cam Schlittler, who, in his first postseason start, threw eight shutout innings and punched out 12 without walking a batter. Although the Blue Jays are ball-in-play merchants, Schlittler’s stuff is overwhelming enough to quiet them and make for a Game 5 for the ages at Rogers Centre. — Jeff Passan


The Dodgers are going to 2019 Washington Nationals their way through the postseason

Washington rode five starting pitchers and three relievers all the way from the do-or-die wild-card game through its World Series Game 7 victory over the heavily favored Houston Astros. Led by starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, eight pitchers combined to pitch 141⅔ of the Nationals’ 153 playoff innings. Joe Ross, who got a spot start in Game 5 of the World Series, was the fifth starter Washington used.

Those Nationals happened to topple the Dodgers in the NLDS.

This year’s Dodgers, like those Nationals, boast a deep rotation and a shaky bullpen. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia should absorb the bulk of the October workload. Of those eight pitchers, only Vesia was primarily a reliever during the regular season. The Nationals proved a version of the formula can work. Six years later, it’s the best recipe for the Dodgers to win a championship. — Jorge Castillo


The Dodgers will sweep their way to a repeat

With 10 hitters who hit double-digit home runs during the regular season, the Dodgers simply don’t have to worry about that one bat going cold. And outside of Yamamoto, none of their pitchers has thrown over 125 innings — but they have such a depth in their rotation that they’ve been able to push some of their starters to the bullpen in October.

It’s all hands on deck in any game they need it. — AJ Mass


The 2025 World Series champion won’t come out of the Dodgers-Phillies NLDS

Ever since the bracket for this postseason was set — even before the Dodgers advanced out of the wild-card series to make the meeting official — there has been a thought percolating that Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia was this year’s true World Series (or at least NLCS) playing out in the division series round. Well, I’m here to tell you that is not a foregone conclusion.

Yes, the Phillies and the Dodgers possess the most talent of any teams in the sport — but that didn’t stop the Brewers from going a combined 10-2 against Philly and L.A. during the regular season. And how about those Blue Jays (the team two of my colleagues predicted very big things for above), or the Mariners, who definitely have the it factor on their side, or the Tigers, who have the best pitcher on the planet (excluding at-bats vs. Jorge Polanco) on theirs.

I’m going to play the percentages here and say someone other than the Phillies or Dodgers will be the last team standing. — Dan Mullen



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Notre Dame, Villanova to start men’s, women’s hoops season in Rome

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Notre Dame, Villanova to start men’s, women’s hoops season in Rome


Notre Dame and Villanova will play a men’s and women’s basketball doubleheader Nov. 1 in Rome to open the season.

The universities are promoting the matchups as a chance to celebrate their shared mission and heritage as Catholic schools. The jointly hosted event will include “special programming that brings together academics, athletics and spirituality,” Villanova said in its announcement.

“From academic engagement and cultural immersion to shared worship and athletics, this journey offers a profound opportunity to grow in mind, body and spirit,” said the Rev. Peter Donohue, Villanova’s school president.

The schools said the election of Pope Leo XIV, an Augustinian friar and Villanova alumnus, was the inspiration for scheduling the game.

Those attending the Italian excursion will have the opportunity for a shared Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, a planned papal audience with Pope Leo XIV before the games and private tours of the Vatican Museums.

College teams playing overseas is expected to become more common amid a growing influx of international talent. Twenty-three of the 62 players on Final Four rosters listed their hometown as being in another country, and NCAA data shows the number of international players on Division I rosters (888) has more than doubled since 2010.

Games in Croatia and Serbia are in the works and planned for November as part of a new College Basketball International Series launched by Intersport and Rochelle Management Group.



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2026 NBA playoffs: Western Conference first-round takeaways

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2026 NBA playoffs: Western Conference first-round takeaways


The 2026 NBA playoffs began Saturday, and our NBA insiders have you covered for every game in the march to the Finals.

The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves kicked things off for the Western Conference on Saturday. Jamal Murray, who was a first-time All-Star this season, led all players with 30 points to help the Nuggets take a 1-0 lead. Nikola Jokic added 25 points despite a slow first half. Anthony Edwards kept the Wolves in the game with 22 points, but it wasn’t enough.

The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 107-98 in the day’s final game. The Lakers have had to turn to LeBron James at the end of the regular season after losing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves indefinitely to injuries, but the Rockets were also without a star. Kevin Durant missed Game 1 because of a knee contusion, and his availability for Game 2 is uncertain.

On Sunday, the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder blew out the No. 8-seeded Phoenix Suns 119-84 despite an off-game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 25 points but shot just 5 for 18 in 29 minutes. The San Antonio Spurs also opened the playoffs with an impressive performance in their 111-98 win over the Portland Trail Blazers.

More coverage:
East takeaways | Schedules and results | Offseason guides

Game 1: Spurs 111, Trail Blazers 98

Biggest takeaway from Game 1: San Antonio showed up at Frost Bank Center outfitted for the occasion, eschewing its usual casual dress code and opting for all-black suits. The Spurs took a business approach into their Game 1 demolition, led by Victor Wembanyama, who enhanced his jaw-dropping physical skill set by deploying it in an intelligent and efficient manner.

Wembanyama, who was making his postseason debut, poured in 21 points in the first half, the highest scoring output in a player’s first career playoff opening half in the play-by-play era, according to ESPN Research. Before halftime, he scored or assisted on 24 points and held Portland’s shooters scoreless (0-of-6) as the contesting defender, helping San Antonio build a 10-point lead at the break that it would never relinquish.

Wembanyama became the third player in NBA history to have at least 30 points and hit five 3-pointers in his postseason debut, joining Kyrie Irving (2015) and Jordan Poole (2022), according to ESPN Research. — Michael C. Wright

Game 2: Trail Blazers at Spurs (8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)

What to watch in Game 2: Portland is the underdog, but its chances to make a mark in this series would increase if the Trail Blazers can supplement Deni Avdija‘s offensive production. Through the first three quarters, Portland had just two scorers in double figures other than Avdija (Scoot Henderson and Robert Williams III), while the Spurs had five players with at least 10 points.

Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan and Jrue Holiday shot a combined 4-of-23 over the first three quarters. So, with San Antonio loading up to slow down Avdija, his teammates should be able to capitalize if they can knock down some of their solid looks.

San Antonio, meanwhile, will look to apply more pressure if it gains a sizable lead in Game 2 after nearly letting Portland back into this contest. The Spurs built a 10-point halftime lead, and the Blazers cut it to two points by scoring the first eight points of the second half. — Wright


Game 1: Thunder 119, Suns 84

Biggest takeaway from Game 1: A series-opening Sunday afternoon tip in Oklahoma City isn’t a fair fight for a No. 8 seed that had to fight to punch its playoff ticket Friday night.

For the second straight year, the Thunder had all but sealed the victory by halftime of Game 1 in the first round. Oklahoma City, which was a 14.5-point favorite, led by 21 at the half, fueled by scoring 21 points off 10 Phoenix turnovers. It was the largest halftime lead of any playoff game this weekend, but it’s familiar territory for Oklahoma City, which led by at least 20 at the half three times during its title run last postseason.

To their credit, the Suns had a much more respectable showing than the Memphis Grizzlies did a year ago, when the Thunder rolled to a 51-point victory in Game 1. — Tim MacMahon

Game 2: Suns at Thunder (Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

What to watch in Game 2: The Suns need to find a solution to slow down Jalen Williams, Gilgeous-Alexander’s sidekick who is as healthy as he has been all season after coming off summer wrist surgery and dealing with recurring hamstring issues.

Williams finished with 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting and six assists in 29 minutes. It didn’t help Phoenix that guard Jordan Goodwin, who took the defensive assignment on Gilgeous-Alexander to start the game, got into early foul trouble. That forced the Suns to switch Dillon Brooks onto Gilgeous-Alexander and use lesser defenders on Williams, whose penetration into the paint created all kinds of problems.

The game got out of reach during Gilgeous-Alexander’s seven-minute rest to start the second quarter, a span in which Williams had four points and four assists. — MacMahon


Game 1: Lakers 107, Rockets 98

Biggest takeaway from Game 1: The Lakers were dealt a terrible hand when Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves suffered injuries a couple of weeks before the playoffs began. On Saturday, Los Angeles caught a break when Rockets star Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a right knee injury. And the Lakers seized the opportunity.

Other than the final four minutes of the second quarter, when the Lakers struggled and turned the ball over five times to allow Houston to cut the lead from eight to two points, L.A. played a brilliant offensive game. LeBron James (19 points, 12 assists, 8 rebounds) ignited the action with eight assists in the first quarter — the most assists in any quarter of his playoff career, according to ESPN Research — and the ball flowed the rest of the night, with all five starters scoring in double digits.

Luke Kennard, who scored a career-playoff-high 27 points on 9-for-13 shooting, was a favorite target of James, but Deandre Ayton (18 points on 8-of-10 shooting) and Rui Hachimura (14 points on 6-of-10 shooting) also made the most of their touches. The Lakers said all week they had rediscovered their belief after their backcourt went down. That belief will only grow going into Game 2. — Dave McMenamin

Game 2: Rockets at Lakers (Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)

What to watch in Game 2: The obvious question for Houston is whether Durant will be available. Without the fifth-leading scorer in league history, the Rockets’ offense was rudderless. Houston shot just 37.6%, with Alperen Sengun missing 13 of his 19 shots, Reed Sheppard missing 14 of his 20, Amen Thompson missing 11 of his 18 and Jabari Smith Jr. missing nine of his 14.

The Lakers had the final five games of the regular season and all week during the play-in tournament to tinker with their game plan to survive without Doncic and Reaves, but the Rockets had to adjust to Durant’s injury on the fly. How Durant heals in the next 48 hours, or how the Rockets game plan for Tuesday if he isn’t available, could well decide the series. — McMenamin


Game 1: Nuggets 116, Timberwolves 105

What we learned from Game 1: Playoff Jamal Murray launched early this year. In years past, Murray came up with big games or big shots when the Nuggets had fallen into a hole or needed some heroics. This year, Murray came out of the gate in peak form, propelling Denver with 30 points, seven assists and five rebounds on a remarkable 16-for-16 from the free throw line. Denver needed every one of those points as Aaron Gordon got into early foul trouble and Nikola Jokic started slow with just six points in the first half. Jokic got on track in the second half, finishing with 25 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists for his 22nd postseason triple-double, third most in NBA history behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28).

Denver broke open the game with a 14-0 run in the third quarter, during which Minnesota missed nine straight field goal attempts. Anthony Edwards was on the bench for the end of that run as Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch tried to get him some rest before the fourth quarter. Edwards is still managing pain in his right knee and will be doing so for as long as the season continues. He finished with a pedestrian-for-him 22 points in 37 minutes. — Ramona Shelburne

Game 2: Timberwolves at Nuggets (Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

What to watch for Game 2: These two teams have played more times than any two teams in the league the past three seasons. With the win in Game 1, the Nuggets now have a 15-14 advantage. That past is prologue to everything that happens in this series, and it is a fascinating chess match to behold.

Minnesota has to use its length and athleticism to do a better job of containing Murray on the perimeter — without fouling. His 16 free throws is a Denver postseason record (the entire Minnesota team shot 19 free throws), which is a reflection of his aggressiveness and the way the game was officiated. That dynamic has been a major point of contention throughout this rivalry, and it noticeably affects the results each game. It’ll be interesting to see whether that changes in Game 2, because the Timberwolves did well in virtually all the other facets of the game in which they usually thrive — finishing with 54 points in the paint. — Shelburne



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VAR review: Should Arsenal’s Gabriel have been sent off for headbutt?

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VAR review: Should Arsenal’s Gabriel have been sent off for headbutt?


Video assistant referee causes controversy every week in the Premier League, but how are decisions made and are they correct?

This season, we take a look at the major incidents to examine and explain the process, both in terms of VAR protocol and the Laws of the Game.


Andy Davies (@andydaviesref) is a former Select Group referee, with over 12 seasons on the elite list, working across the Premier League and Championship. With extensive experience at the elite level, he has operated within the VAR space in the Premier League and offers a unique insight into the processes, rationale and protocols that are delivered on a Premier League matchday.


Referee: Anthony Taylor
VAR: John Brooks
Time: 83 minutes
Incident: Possible red card for violent conduct

What happened: An altercation between Arsenal’s Gabriel and City’s Erling Haaland ended with the defender seemingly headbutting Haaland. Referee Anthony Taylor decided to give a yellow card to Gabriel, and the VAR did not intervene.

VAR decision: The VAR did not feel that a clear error had been made by the referee and confirmed the yellow card.

VAR review: VAR John Brooks would have taken the lead from the on-field communications from Anthony Taylor when reviewing this incident. Taylor’s view of the possible violent act by Gabriel and its subsequent contact was very credible, having all the information available to him, and he gave his rationale accordingly.

In law, a red card for violent conduct is considered when a player uses or attempts to use excessive force or brutality against an opponent when not challenging for the ball. However, such an action can be judged as a yellow card for adopting an aggressive attitude if the referee deems the contact as negligible.

This was the explanation given by Taylor, and the VAR did not fully disagree. In this situation and its specific circumstances, the VAR would not have looked to intervene and would have backed either a yellow or a red card based on the referee’s comms.

Verdict/insight: Let’s be clear, Gabriel is very fortunate to not receive a red card for violent conduct. His action in pushing his head toward Haaland in an aggressive manner was unwise, to say the least. Haaland’s ability to stay on his feet (many wouldn’t) certainly allowed Taylor the opportunity to manage the incident with a wider perspective.

The contact, in truth, probably wasn’t with excessive force, and therefore, you could argue a credible outcome was reached. However, it was a risk for Taylor, because if the game had a different outcome, his decision to give Gabriel only a yellow would have been a potential game changer.

In my opinion, Gabriel should have been sent off. It was an attempted violent act, and regardless of the level of contact or injury to his opponent, the action met the criteria for a red card.



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