Business
Pakistan Confirms Agricultural Tax Increase, Development Cuts to IMF – SUCH TV
These measures are part of Pakistan’s plan to successfully complete the second review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and unlock the third $1 billion tranche, along with the first $200 million tranche under the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF’s recently released staff report highlights that Pakistan has achieved most targets under the programme, though it projects that the country’s balance of payment gap could widen to $3.253 billion by 2029–30, signaling potential need for another IMF programme in the future.
The report outlines contingency measures the government plans to adopt if revenues fall short by December 2025.
These include raising excises on fertilisers and pesticides by five percentage points, introducing levies on high-value sugary items, and broadening the GST base.
In addition, Islamabad is ready to reduce or postpone spending in response to lower revenues.
Other commitments include full deregulation of the sugar sector, continued tariff adjustments in the power sector, and measures to reduce system losses and costs.
The government will also roll out point-of-sale systems for 40,000 large retailers nationwide over the next two years, while all provinces will move toward harmonised sales tax procedures.
The IMF report notes that, in the current fiscal year, Pakistan will restrict spending on new development schemes to 10% of the PSDP, prioritising completion of ongoing projects worth around Rs2.5 trillion.
From the next fiscal year, greater focus will be placed on climate-related initiatives.
Public procurement is set to transition to digital e-pads, with the Auditor General required to submit a compliance report to the president by March 2026.
Under social protection measures, the Kafalat cash transfer under the BISP programme will rise to Rs14,500 per quarter from January 2026, expanding coverage to 10.2 million families.
Biometric verification for payments will remain mandatory, and the government plans to launch the long-awaited e-wallet system by June 2026.
On energy reforms, the IMF has noted that the government has already decided to shift annual tariff rebasing from July to January 2026. Last fiscal year, the circular debt stock was reduced to Rs1.614 trillion.
By January 2026, the government aims to settle Rs1.2 trillion owed to commercial banks, out of which Rs660 billion will go to Pakistan Private Holdings Limited and the rest to the Central Power Purchasing Agency.
The plan also includes eliminating Rs128 billion in interest payments owed to IPPs and keeping the circular debt at zero inflow until fiscal year 2031.
The Fund highlights that 5.2 million income tax returns were filed in FY2024, while the number is expected to reach 7 million in FY2025.
It acknowledges Pakistan’s progress on stabilisation, noting improvements in foreign exchange reserves, which have risen to $14.5 billion, and a 1.3% primary surplus delivered in FY2025.
Fiscal performance remains strong, with the primary surplus recorded at 1.3%, and the IMF report says this surplus was achieved in line with the programme target.
According to the report, within one year, foreign exchange reserves increased from $9.4 billion to $14.5 billion, and reserves are projected to rise further in the coming years.
The IMF says Pakistan has achieved its first current account surplus in 14 years and terms the primary surplus target for fiscal year 2025–26 achievable. Reforms to increase revenues and reduce debt are described as ongoing.
On inflation, the IMF notes that inflation increased due to food prices following the floods but says this inflationary pressure is temporary. Inflation is projected to ease to 7% in the current fiscal year.
The IMF has stressed maintaining a tight monetary policy to keep inflation under control. It also says exchange rate flexibility is necessary to absorb shocks.
At the same time, the IMF warns that the 2022 floods highlighted Pakistan’s deep climate vulnerability, having affected seven million people and claiming nearly 1,000 lives, while causing extensive losses to infrastructure, homes and livestock.
The report says that following the floods, the importance of reforms and policy continuity has increased further, and it urges stronger climate adaptation measures, improved water management and disaster preparedness.
The global lender has also stressed sustained reforms in taxation, governance, state-owned enterprises and energy to secure long-term growth.
It says Pakistan must widen the tax net, simplify tax procedures, ensure data transparency, and maintain a strict monetary policy to keep inflation stable. Strengthening forex market transparency and reducing policy uncertainty are also essential.
The IMF report adds that progress has been made in improving the power sector through energy tariff adjustments, but further reforms are required to stabilise the sector.
It also notes that improving governance in state-owned enterprises and the investment environment is important, and that trade and investment reforms are essential for sustainable growth.
It says RSF reforms will help improve flood risk management and water governance.
The report concludes that Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile but is moving in the right direction under the current programme.
Stronger reforms and consistent policy implementation, it notes, will be critical for lowering debt, raising revenue and sustaining growth in the years ahead.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has come under further pressure as pre-Budget worries and tax hike speculation was widely blamed for an unexpected contraction in the economy during October.
Official figures showed the UK economy shrank for the second month running in October, contracting by 0.1% following a 0.1% decline in September.
Most economists had been expecting a rise of 0.1% for October on hopes of a manufacturing bounceback led by Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) recovery from a major cyber attack.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) fell as car manufacturing activity only made a “slight” recovery from the woes at JLR, with the services sector weighed down as consumers held back spending on the high street before the Budget, delivered on November 26.
The data shows the UK economy has now not grown since June, with GDP either flat or falling in the past four months.
Economists said the weaker-than-expected figures would reinforce hopes of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week in what would be a welcome pre-Christmas boost to households.
In the three months to October, the economy shrank by 0.1% after growth of 0.1% in the three months to September, according to the ONS.
Many businesses have recently indicated that activity in the economy slowed in the lead-up to the Budget as speculation over possible tax measures grew.
Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said: “Some of this weakness still reflects the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, which knocked car output earlier in the autumn, but the bigger story is that speculation around the autumn Budget kept households and businesses in wait-and-see mode.
“Given the timing of the Budget, November’s GDP print is likely to look similarly subdued before any post-Budget effects start to show up.”
Some experts have said weak recent growth was largely driven by rampant speculation in the run up to the Budget.
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said last month the prolonged worries over the Budget and leaks over possible tax hikes had “caused businesses and consumers to hunker down”.
Earlier this week, Ms Reeves hit out at “too many leaks” in the run-up to Budget when questioned by a committee of MPs.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said the latest GDP blow was “a direct result of Labour’s economic mismanagement”.
He said: “For months, Rachel Reeves has misled the British public. She said she wouldn’t raise taxes on working people – she broke that promise again. She insisted there was a black hole in the public finances – but there wasn’t.”
The ONS data The data revealed that month-on-month activity in car production jumped 9.5% higher in October, but this was only a partial recovery from the 28.6% plunge in September as the JLR cyberattack sent shockwaves through the sector.
Car production activity remained 21.8% lower than in August.
JLR was forced to pause production of its cars for more than a month after being targeted by hackers, having a knock-on impact for the wider sector and resulting in a costly recovery.
It gradually resumed production through October.
Widespread pressure in the rest of the economy also weighed on the GDP outturn, with output down 0.3% across the dominant services sector – including a 1.1% drop for retail – and a 0.6% fall across construction.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.”
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the recent “Budget chaos” through November is likely to hit growth through that month too, which could see GDP contract by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2026.
He said: “Weak GDP adds to the reasons for the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates next week.
“Rate setters would need a huge surprise in inflation and the labour market data published next week to stop a hike.”
Business
Market Today: Sensex Jumps 475 Points In Afternoon Trade, Nifty Trades Above 26,050 On Strong Buying
Last Updated:
The BSE Sensex jumps 335.08 points to trade at 85,151.32 in the early trade, while the NSE Nifty rises by 110.05 points to above 26,000 at 26,009.60.
Stock Market Today.
Market Today: Continuing strong momentum for the second day, the domestic equity market on Friday saw a positive opening amid global stability following the recent US Fed rate cut and easing crude oil prices. The BSE Sensex jumped 475.8 points to trade at 85,290.21 in the early trade, while the NSE Nifty surged by 152.63 points to above 26,000 at 26,051.32.
Among the 30 Sensex shares, 23 were trading in green. Among the top gainers were Tata Steel, Eternal, Ultratech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, and Bharti Airtel, rising by up to 3.37%. On the other hand, the laggards were HUL, Sun Pharma, ITC, Asian Paints, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and SBI, falling by up to 1.77%.
In the broader market, the BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap were trading higher by 1.21% and 0.67%, respectively.
“Sentiment remains supported by global stability following the recent US Fed rate cut and easing crude oil prices, although foreign fund outflows and rupee weakness keep traders somewhat cautious. The broader setup suggests a continuation of range-bound movement unless a clear breakout emerges,” said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Immediate support now lies around 25,750-25,800, and deeper support is positioned near 25,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 26,000-26,050. Sustained trade above 26,050 may encourage further buying, potentially driving the index toward 26,300. Until then, intraday swings may remain contained, he added.
Global Markets
Asian stocks advanced in early trade on Friday following strength on Wall Street overnight, though a fresh decline in Oracle’s share price sent jitters through the tech sector. Financial markets had to move fast to find their footing this week when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but gave a less hawkish outlook than expected, and the return of AI bubble worries added to the stress for investors.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.7%, tracking mostly higher US markets on Thursday, the Dow and Russell 2000 indices hit new highs but the Nasdaq fell. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 outperformed the region in morning trade, climbing 1% as shares in Softbank Group surged 6% after Bloomberg News reported it is considering acquiring the US data centre company Switch Inc.
S&P 500 e-mini futures were unchanged and Nasdaq future were down 0.2% as markets were on edge after Oracle shares plunged 13%, sparking a tech selloff, as the company’s massive spending and weak forecasts fanned doubts over how quickly the big bets on AI will pay off.
Click here to add News18 as your preferred news source on Google. December 12, 2025, 09:22 IST
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Business
Trump sanctions hit! Russia records lowest oil exports since Ukraine conflict; revenue falls to $11 billion – The Times of India
Russia’s oil exports crashed to their lowest point since the Ukraine war began, weighed down by buyers moving away from Moscow amid tightened US sanctions and Kyiv’s escalating attacks. In its latest assessment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Russian oil exports declined by 420 kb/d in November, pulling total shipments down to 6.9 mb/d.The drop in volumes and weakening prices pushed Moscow’s oil revenue down to $11 billion, which is $3.6 billion less than the same month last year. The IEA added that both export volumes and prices have dropped, “dragging export revenues to their lowest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”
Urals crude prices plunge
As exports dragged down, Urals crude prices also tumbled by $8.2/bbl to $43.52/bbl (one barrel is about 159 litres). This marked the lowest level since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022.According to the IEA, this downturn pushed export revenues to their lowest monthly level since the invasion began.
Impact of Ukrainian strikes and Russia’s “shadow fleet”
The IEA said Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” and marine oil facilities cut almost half of Russia’s November seaborne exports through the Black Sea.The pressure on shipments and prices comes as Russia struggles with meagre economic growth, the accumulated impact of sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure.Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian refineries over the summer and early autumn, causing domestic petrol prices to spike and prompting some Russian regions to introduce fuel rationing.“After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges,” the IEA said.
Russia’s budget under strain
The Russian finance ministry reported that oil and gas revenues for the first nine months of the year were down 22% to $88 billion.A combination of high military spending, entrenched inflation and falling oil income has stretched Moscow’s budget. Russia is expected to post a $50 billion deficit this year, around three percent of GDP, and plans to raise taxes on consumers and businesses next year to narrow the gap.
US escalates pressure with tariffs and sanctions
The United States has warned several countries that they may face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue buying Russian oil. The EU has Washington recently imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, citing its continued purchases of Russian crude. This was on top of the 25% tariff previously announced by US President Trump.In October, the US unveiled some of its toughest measures yet on Russia’s energy sector by sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil, the country’s two biggest oil producers, in an effort to pressure Moscow to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine.
Global supply slips
Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending cumulative declines from September’s record high of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d, the IEA said.OPEC+ accounted for more than three-quarters of the overall drop, driven mainly by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. The group contributed 80% of the supply decline over the past two months, reflecting major unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, alongside continued contractions in Russia and Venezuela.Among non-OPEC+ producers, the United States, Brazil and biofuels were also contributors to the global supply decline.
Outlook — What will happen in the oil sector?
Despite recent market tightness, the IEA projects global oil supply to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026. However, the agency revised its supply growth forecasts downward, by 100 kb/d for 2025 and 20 kb/d for 2026 — to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d respectively.On the demand front, world oil consumption is expected to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions. The IEA has also upgraded its 2026 demand outlook to 860 kb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d from earlier estimates.Gasoil and jet/kerosene are projected to account for half of this year’s demand growth, while fuel oil continues to lose ground due to substitution by natural gas and solar in power generation.
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