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Pakistan ranks second to Turkey among emerging markets as default risk falls sharply: finance adviser | The Express Tribune

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Pakistan ranks second to Turkey among emerging markets as default risk falls sharply: finance adviser | The Express Tribune


Pakistan has recorded one of the sharpest declines in default risks globally, emerging as the only country to show consistent improvement over the past 15 months, according to the Adviser to the Finance Minister, Khurram Schehzad.

“Pakistan is no longer viewed through the lens of default risk,” Schehzad said. “It is emerging as a stable, reform-driven, and resilient economy,” said Khurram Schehzad on Sunday In a post on X, citing a report of Bloomberg.

He said Pakistan ranked second among emerging economies showing the strongest reduction in sovereign default probabilities — only behind Turkiye.

Between June 2024 and September 2025, Pakistan’s default risk improved by 2,200 basis points, reflecting what Schehzad described as “a sign of sustained economic recovery and growing investor confidence.”

“This is clear evidence of Pakistan’s durable economic improvement,” he said, adding “The country is the only economy to have demonstrated continuous quarterly improvement.”

Schehzad said, the trend demonstrates that investors’ trust in Pakistan is being restored, driven by macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, timely debt repayments, adherence to the IMF programme, and positive ratings from international agencies such as S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s.

He added that while countries such as South Africa and El Salvador saw limited improvement — and risks rose in Egypt, Nigeria, and Argentina — Pakistan’s steady progress reflects the success of ongoing fiscal and structural reforms.

Pakistan’s economy to stay afloat despite floods

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not foresee any major setback to Pakistan’s economic growth or revenue collection this fiscal year due to the recent floods. Except for Punjab, provinces have also not reported significant economic losses, minimizing the chances of a downward revision in targets.

According to government sources, Pakistani authorities have assessed flood-related losses in three rivers, but the evaluation of destroyed or damaged infrastructure in Punjab is still ongoing.

Government sources said that an IMF delegation shared its views about the economic impacts of the floods during a kick-off meeting with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The governments of Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) shared their initial assessments of the flood losses with the IMF team during separate meetings.

The sources said that during the kick-off meeting, the IMF team observed that based on initial input there were no significant economic losses. However, the IMF said that it would wait for the damage assessment report, the sources added.

The global lender also saw no impact of the floods on the tax revenues. It underscored that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) should share the visible outcome of the transformation plan. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had approved the transformation plan last year to revitalise the tax machinery and also gave over Rs55 billion for various initiatives under the plan.

The IMF’s observations about the impact of the floods came on the heel of the prime minister’s request to the IMF managing director to factor in the impacts of the floods during the review meetings. The IMF was apprised that the government could meet the flood-related spending from the contingency pool and it might not need additional resources, said the sources.

Pakistan-IMF review talks began on September 25, which are scheduled to continue until October 8. The successful culmination of these talks would pave the way for the release of two tranches, totalling over $1.2 billion under two different loan programmes.





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India outlook: Reforms put wind in its sails amid global headwinds; PMO’s Shaktikanta Das maps the road ahead – The Times of India

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India outlook: Reforms put wind in its sails amid global headwinds; PMO’s Shaktikanta Das maps the road ahead – The Times of India


India is at the cusp of a historic economic journey, with government policies and reforms giving the country “wind in its sails” even as global trade uncertainties intensify, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.Delivering the inaugural Bibek Debroy Memorial Lecture, Das said India has emerged stronger from successive global shocks and is now positioned to pursue sustained growth despite a fragmented global economic order, PTI reported.

‘India Outperforming Emerging Markets’: Economist On India’s 7.4% FY26 GDP Growth Estimates

Atmanirbharta as resilience, not isolation“At a time when the consensus that powered globalisation in past decades has frayed and multilateral cooperation has become harder to achieve, India has embraced Atmanirbharta as the overarching principle of our policies,” Das said.Clarifying the approach, he added: “Atmanirbharta is not being isolationist, but a strategy to build core competence and resilience. Economic Atmanirbharta means developing the capacity to produce critical goods and technologies at home and reducing over-reliance on foreign sources.”A self-reliant economy, backed by strong domestic capabilities and an autonomous foreign policy, provides India greater strength to sustain growth and navigate external challenges, he said. “Together, they ensure that India’s rise is resilient, sustainable and beneficial to us and to the world.”From global shocks to ‘wind in our sails’Das said India has successfully emerged from what appeared to be “perfect storms” triggered by multiple global shocks since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.“And now with the policies that the country has adopted, the wind is in our sails. We are indeed on our path to Viksit Bharat,” he said.India, he noted, stands at an inflection point where shifting geopolitical alignments and trade policies are reshaping the global economic landscape.“India stands today at the cusp of a historic journey — from being an incredible India to a credible India. There will be headwinds and challenges emanating from known and unknown sources,” Das said.Fragmenting world, India’s strategic responseDas flagged the strain on global institutions and multilateral frameworks, saying traditional multilateralism is increasingly being sidelined by geopolitical rivalries, protectionism and fragmentation.“Key international institutions are struggling to deliver on their mandates… Trade and supply chains, once seen as neutral conduits of globalisation, are increasingly being utilised as instrumentalities of disruption and dominance,” he said.Reshoring, friend-shoring and restricted technology flows are fragmenting global networks, reflecting broader geo-economic fragmentation, Das added.Against this backdrop, India’s approach is pragmatic. “India stands for a cooperative and rules-based global system; but at the same time, we are proactively forging partnerships and strategies to secure our national interest in a world where power is more diffused,” he said.“We, of course, acknowledge that the multilateral system must be revitalised, even as we adapt to new alignments,” Das added.



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Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’

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Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’


US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.

Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.

The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.

The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.

In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.

“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.

When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.

Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.

The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.

Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.

The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.

The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.

“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.

But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.

“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”



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Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market

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Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market



Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.

The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.

Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.

UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.

The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.

Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.

However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.

Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.

On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.

Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.

“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”



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