Stock markets in the United States were at a low as investors await further economic indicators. The S&P 500 declined by 0.4% in early Thursday trading, moving away from its recent record high achieved in the previous month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 41 points, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%. After the longest shutdown in its history lasting six weeks, the US government has resumed operations. Investors are bracing for possible market fluctuations as the government begins issuing crucial updates regarding employment figures and other economic indicators. The United States government has reopened after a six-week shutdown — the longest in its history. While the stock market largely gained during the closure, as it has in previous shutdowns, Wall Street is now bracing for potential volatility as the government resumes publishing key economic data, including job market and inflation reports.Investors are concerned that fresh data could prompt the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cuts. Although such cuts typically support economic growth, they also risk fuelling inflation. Wall Street’s recent rally to record highs has been driven in part by expectations of continued rate reductions, and a change in that outlook could weigh on stocks.The “looming data deluge may spur additional volatility in the coming weeks,” said Doug Beath, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.Traders have scaled back expectations for another rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in December, now pricing in a roughly 54 per cent chance — down from nearly 70 per cent a week earlier, according to CME Group data.That shift pushed bond yields slightly higher, a move that typically pressures stock prices. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.10 per cent from 4.08 per cent late Wednesday.On Wall Street, The Walt Disney Co. was among the biggest drags on the market, sliding 8.4 per cent. The entertainment major reported quarterly profits that topped analysts’ estimates, but revenue came in below expectations. Cisco Systems, however, rose 4.6 per cent after posting stronger-than-expected profit and revenue.Overseas, markets were mixed — European indexes fluctuated while Asian markets posted modest gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.4 per cent even as tech giant SoftBank Group dropped another 3.4 per cent after disclosing it had sold its entire stake in chipmaker Nvidia.Concerns are mounting globally about whether Nvidia and other high-flying artificial intelligence stocks can sustain their massive gains. Their soaring valuations — which have helped drive US markets to record highs despite slowing job growth and persistent inflation — have drawn comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000, when the S&P 500 later plunged nearly 50 per cent after the crash.Nvidia fell another 2.9 per cent on Thursday, exerting the heaviest drag on the S&P 500. Other AI-linked stocks also declined, with Palantir Technologies down 2.9 per cent and Super Micro Computer losing 2.6 per cent.

Today’s disappointing growth figures reflect that the UK has returned to the slower lanes of growth, having outperformed earlier in the year.

The 0.1% growth seen in the July-to-September quarter was below forecasts, and the economy shrank in the month of September.

A breakdown in car production following the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover does explain September’s contraction, and why the overall growth figures were worse than expected.

The ONS told me that if vehicle production had been flat rather than the worst monthly fall on record outside of the pandemic, GDP in September would have gone up.

That is not the full story, though. Momentum in the economy has clearly flagged.

In particular, slowdowns in consumer-facing services and business investment are a key concern.

Higher costs of employment and the constantly rolling uncertainty are not helping.

Consumers remain cautious, with high savings rates, and businesses have not yet turned on the investment taps.

A key objective for the Budget is to end the constant doom loop of speculation about tax changes. There will be a bigger buffer against fiscal shocks, and potential changes to how often the chancellor’s borrowing rules are assessed.

Certainty has a price, however, in terms of tax rises. The Budget will try to target the rise in tax away from worker pay packets and investors, but the sums involved make this a tricky task.

The silver lining for some to the cloudy figures is that a further Bank of England rate cut next month now seems very likely, with perhaps more to come next year.

It is reflected in the declining cost of government borrowing on markets, with key two- and five-year rates now below what Labour inherited when entering office. The cost of fixed mortgage rates is also starting to come down.

The chancellor will see this as vindication for a tough stance on her “non-negotiable” rules, and will use these figures to demand discipline over tricky Budget decisions from her backbenches. The property market has also, however, been impacted by speculation about tax changes.

The feel-good factor is missing. UK consumers, unlike US consumers, have kept savings levels high, and are not spending as much. Years of rolling crises, followed by ongoing uncertainty about policy, has left scars.

The UK economy has not managed to break the trend of slow growth, despite a strong-ish first half of the year. There was no growth when adjusting for the size of the population.

While the economy has defied the recessionary vibes, and could still end up the second fastest G7 economy this year, the Budget somehow has to provide certainty, try to boost consumer and business confidence, and at the same time fill a large fiscal gap.

It’s quite the ask, and the latest growth figures have raised the stakes for the Budget even higher.