Sports
Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 3
It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.
In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football. Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.
And it’s gonna last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control on their path to the playoff.
“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”
So what does it mean for Texas A&M?
This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Like the selection committee, it is a ranking based on what each team has done to-date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.
Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of if they are a conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.
Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if both teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.
Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders who have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — gives them an edge in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.
Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.
Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay — either in the SEC championship game, the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have bye week to prepare for it, but the Tide has shown continuous improvement since its season-opening loss to Florida State.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut the Gators out in the second half and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.
Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU only had 10 first downs (compared to 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.
Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trip that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff win under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win against Notre Dame is this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. While it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M both looked in their wins against the Irish if they were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road.
Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares along the way. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could see the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got right now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.
Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming both the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting now that the Tigers have lost a second game.
Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams who have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.
Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he only has four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.
Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for starpower, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost its résumé, but it assured the Sooners of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference wins in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.
Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer so far indicates this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee isn’t going to penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win plus the loss could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols still have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble with winless Western Michigan, but that’s not going to change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, which somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.
Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.
Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar game that could impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could ultimately knock the loser out with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for them both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game with injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He did account for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.
Why they could be lower: It’s been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.
Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tune-up game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
LAS VEGAS — Shortly after moving up in weight and eking out a win in the closest fight of his career, Terence Crawford — then on the cusp of his 37th birthday — was insisting on jumping another two divisions to fight the undisputed 168-pound champion, Canelo Alvarez. This was 13 months ago. Crawford was addressing an audience of one: his patron, the Saudi Arabian boxing financier, Turki Alalshikh.
Even by boxing standards — I use the term advisedly, as boxing has only few and dubious standards — it seemed a semi-preposterous idea. Alalshikh shot him a look. “But the weight?” he said.
Actually, it was more than just the weight. Both history and common sense favor not merely the naturally bigger man, but the younger one, and the so-called “A side.” Paired with Canelo — boxing’s leading man, who had already generated almost half a billion dollars in purses — Crawford was none of those things. What’s more, he would do it without insisting on any of the usual contractual niceties designed to even the odds: no catchweight, no rehydration clause.
Alalshikh proposed a couple of very lucrative, if more sensible, alternatives: Vergil Ortiz Jr. or Jaron “Boots” Ennis, each of them undefeated young stars with great ambition at 154 pounds. Crawford refused to entertain either option. “Boots is not a megafight,” he said. “Vergil Ortiz is not a megafight. This is the tail end of my career. They’re going to say, ‘You were supposed to win.’ I want Canelo Alvarez.”
He wanted the fight he wasn’t supposed to win.
“OK,” said Alalshikh, relenting. “I’m going to try to get that fight for you.”
“That’s the only fight I want,” said Crawford.
Thirteen months hence, Canelo and Crawford will fight Saturday at Allegiant Stadium. Canelo agreed to the fight in return for a purse believed to be in excess of $100 million (“More than that,” Alalshikh proclaimed at Thursday’s news conference) — an offer that even the sport’s leading man couldn’t refuse. But it all began with Crawford. “That’s how we got here,” he says.
A generation of fighters has come to look upon Canelo less as a rival than as a score, a jackpot, a career payday. Their victories, it seems, were signing the contracts, not fighting the fights. But Crawford looks to Canelo as his white whale, something he was stalking long before that meeting with Alalshikh: an existential corrective for everything he believes has afflicted his career, an answer for every slight going back to the amateurs, from fighters who wouldn’t fight him to promoters who failed to promote him, a source of eternal respect and stature. But only if he wins.
In fact, Crawford has been studying Canelo since at least 2015, when he showed up at Mandalay Bay to watch Alvarez beat a future Hall of Famer, Miguel Cotto, for his first middleweight title. Crawford, by comparison, then held the WBO junior welterweight title. “I didn’t think fighting Canelo would be a thing,” he says. “We were too far apart in weight classes.”
Gradually, though, it would become a thing. In 2021, Crawford — by then a welterweight champion, though desperately lacking for worthy opponents — attended Alvarez’s stay-busy fight against somebody named Avni Yildirim in Miami. Canelo, now the WBC’s 168-pound champion, knocked out Yildirim in the third round. But even as he did, the seed had been planted. Crawford wouldn’t mention it in public, but it was in the back of his mind.
By 2023, though, he had begun his behind-the-scenes campaign to land a Canelo fight. Late that year, he met with then-WBO president Francisco “Paco” Valcarcel in Puerto Rico and broached the idea.
“I was shocked,” recalls Valcarcel. While Crawford had now beaten Errol Spence Jr. to become undisputed at 147 pounds, Canelo — who had already won a world title by knockout at 175 — was undisputed at 168. “Why don’t you wait a couple years?” Valcarcel advised gently.
“I can’t wait,” Crawford shot back, citing his age. “I can beat him.”
By now, Crawford was a regular at Canelo’s biannual fights, and still fresh in his mind was Canelo’s victory over Jermell Charlo. Charlo, coming up from 154 pounds, was dropped in Round 7. After that, though, it was all paint-by-numbers. “He didn’t fight to win,” Crawford says of Charlo. “He just fought to survive.”
In many respects, Canelo-Charlo has become an all-too-familiar template in the arc of Alvarez’s career: a single knockdown that lumbers on predictably to a unanimous decision. Such was the case in Canelo’s wins over the likes of John Ryder, Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga.
“They wanted the payday,” Crawford tells me. “They didn’t want to win the fight. Going the 12 rounds was a victory to them.”
If Canelo’s most recent victory — for which Crawford traveled all the way to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — lacked even the pro forma knockdown, his opponent, William Scull, was intent on nothing so much as survival. Crawford, meanwhile, fights only to destroy.
That said, if it’s fair to judge Canelo based on past performances, what of Crawford’s? His last fight, moving up to 154 and winning a close if unanimous decision over the estimable Israil Madrimov, fell far short of making a case for Canelo.
“Madrimov taught me patience,” says Crawford. “He was so herky-jerky and so explosive — bouncing back and forth, all those crazy antics. But Canelo doesn’t have any of that in his arsenal. I don’t have to worry about any of that with him.”
What about the age, though? Alvarez is 35. Crawford is two weeks from his 38th birthday, old by the standards of any division in any era, and certainly not an optimal time to jump up multiple divisions. Then again, Alvarez has fought at least 520 rounds (maybe more, as there are believed to be several early fights of his that never made it into the records) as a pro. He has had two competitive fights with the hard-hitting Gennadiy Golovkin, and losses to Floyd Mayweather and, more recently, Dmitry Bivol. Crawford, for his part, has never been beaten, or beaten down, in 245 pro rounds. Who’s older in boxing years? I wonder.
“He is for sure,” says Crawford. “He started fighting professional at 15.”
Still, Alvarez remains not merely the “A side,” but an economy unto himself. Considering the fight is on Mexican Independence Day weekend, it will certainly be a pro-Canelo crowd, but more than that, Canelo will be the presumptive beneficiary of any doubt on the judges’ scorecards. Crawford doesn’t disagree. He knows he can’t fight his typical fight, which involves a relatively slow start as he downloads his opponent’s tendencies. He needs to start fast.
“Of course, of course,” he says. “I got to set the tone. You have to set the tone with Canelo — to let the judges know you’re putting rounds in the bank. That’s how I look at it: one round at a time. Don’t go in and try to get a knockout in the first round. Just put rounds in the bank. And make sure you’re winning those rounds decisively.”
The way Crawford explains it — the way he has been explaining it to himself for years now — makes his existential errand sound, well, perfectly reasonable. Maybe that’s how you hunt white whales, even those with red hair, when the only thing you want is what you’re not supposed to have.
Phil Parkinson reflected on Wrexham’s troubling Sky Bet Championship start by saying the Red Dragons were never going to find life easy after assembling almost a completely new team.
After slumping to a 3-1 home defeat in front of Hollywood star and co-owner Ryan Reynolds, Wrexham dropped to 21st spot in the Championship — one place and two points above the relegation zone after five games.
Wrexham were the Championship’s biggest summer spenders after their third successive promotion, splashing £33 million ($45m) on 13 players before potential add-ons are taken into account.
– Wrexham co-owner Ryan Reynolds watches team lose to QPR
Only five of that 13 started the Rangers defeat, with five others on the bench, and injuries having sidelined Danny Ward, George Thomason and Liberato Cacace.
“We’ve changed the squad around completely,” Wrexham manager Parkinson said after watching his side be thoroughly outplayed by a rejuvenated Rangers outfit.
“There was always going to be a period at the start where it doesn’t go completely as you’d want it.
“We’ve got to work this week on the training pitch to put on a performance like we showed at Millwall two weeks ago [when Wrexham won 2-0].”
Wales striker Kieffer Moore scored for the fourth successive game midway through the second period to cut QPR’s interval lead in half.
But Rumarn Burrell added to a Conor Coady own goal and a Richard Kone thunderbolt to pile the misery on Wrexham — and the watching Reynolds.
The Red Dragons have now conceded eight goals in three home league games, which has yielded just one point.
Parkinson said: “The previous home games, we looked like we can create chances and score.
“But the goals we conceded — on one hand, you’ll say they were clinical but when we analyse them all, we’ll know we could have done better.
“I thought we started the game well and then we had a scrappy period with some mistakes on the ball.
“The goal really typified that period. We had to clear our lines quicker and be braver in the key moments to keep the ball out of the net.
“The third goal was just a real killer for us, it knocked the stuffing out of us.”
The Bulldogs outlasted the Volunteers, 44-41 in overtime, in a game that featured a little bit of everything.
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