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PSX to break 200,000 barrier by December 2026 | The Express Tribune

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PSX to break 200,000 barrier by December 2026 | The Express Tribune



KARACHI:

Pakistan’s stock market is expected to extend its record-breaking rally into next year, with analysts at Taurus Securities projecting that the KSE-100 index may surpass 200,000 points by December 2026, supported by strong corporate earnings, improved investor confidence, and continued policy anchoring under the IMF programme.

The bullish forecast builds on the index’s performance in 2025, as the market absorbs domestic political instability, falling global commodity prices, and active reforms in the energy and fiscal sectors. “We expect the KSE-100 index to reach 206,000 points by the end of Dec’26, translating into a 24% return from the current levels,” noted Taurus Securities in a report.

According to the brokerage house, the KSE-100’s valuation remains compelling even after a nearly 45% gain during 11MCY25, driven by robust profitability in banks, energy, cement, and technology stocks. It expects FY26 earnings growth to remain strong, with companies benefiting from improved pricing power, lower financial costs over time, and operational efficiencies induced by structural reforms. Assuming macroeconomic continuity and predictable policy momentum, the index has the capacity to rise another 20-25% over the next year, Taurus noted, adding that liquidity from local investors remains a crucial pillar of the ongoing rally.

While the broader trend remains positive, the KSE-100 has shown signs of short-term consolidation. The index hovered around the 166,000 level at the end of November as investors digested geopolitical risks and awaited clarity on upcoming monetary and fiscal decisions. Taurus attributes the slowdown largely to the uncertainty created by the Pakistan-Afghanistan border closure, which has disrupted trade flows and weakened sentiment in stocks with Afghan exposure.

Still, domestic participation remains strong. The brokerage observed that while foreign investors continued to trim positions in November, local individuals, banks, and mutual funds absorbed the selling, keeping the market stable near record highs. This trend underscores the “deepening domestic equity culture” and the market’s resilience to external shocks. The cement sector remained in the spotlight throughout November, particularly after Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its intention to acquire a 58% stake in Pioneer Cement (PIOC). The news sparked aggressive buying, pushing PIOC up 64% month-on-month, with MLCF advancing 10% MoM. Fertilisers also saw momentum, with Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) gaining 20% following its inclusion in the KMI-30 Index, prompting Islamic portfolio inflows.

In contrast, Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans (PABC) emerged as the worst-performing major stock, dropping 15% due to its heavy reliance on the Afghan market at a time when formal trade remains suspended.

A major theme highlighted by both Taurus and JS Research is the continued weakness in oil prices. WTI crude traded below $60 per barrel in November, its lowest level in years, on account of record US inventory builds, subdued global trade, and reports that Saudi Arabia may cut Asian oil prices to five-year lows. Analysts say this provides meaningful relief for Pakistan’s import bill, stabilising the rupee and easing inflationary pressure.

The trade halt with Afghanistan, in effect since October 11, triggers growing concerns. Taurus estimates that if the border remains closed for three months, Pakistan could lose around $150 million in exports during the second quarter of FY26. Cement exporters and firms heavily dependent on the Afghan market, including PABC, remain most vulnerable. However, the shutdown has also created unexpected beneficiaries. With illicit inflows from Afghanistan sharply reduced, industries previously hurt by smuggling, including tyres, petroleum products, steel, electronics, and personal care goods, are witnessing a demand shift towards formal-sector products.

JS Research, in its market review, echoed the strong medium-term outlook but warned that the market may continue to consolidate in the near term as geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties persist. The brokerage noted that despite a $112 million current account deficit in October, Pakistan’s overall balance of payments remain in surplus due to steady inflows and soft import prices.

With inflation above 6% in November, JS sees no room for a policy rate cut in the upcoming meeting on December 15. Both brokerages identify the IMF Executive Board meeting on December 8, which will review Pakistan’s second EFF tranche and first RSF facility, as a near-term trigger for market direction. A successful review could unlock $1.2 billion.



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Rupee falls to all-time low of 92.05 against dollar as oil surge, foreign outflows rattle markets – The Times of India

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Rupee falls to all-time low of 92.05 against dollar as oil surge, foreign outflows rattle markets – The Times of India


The Indian rupee weakened sharply on Wednesday, slipping to a record closing low of 92.05 against the US dollar as soaring crude oil prices and global risk aversion linked to the Iran crisis weighed heavily on the domestic currency.The rupee depreciated by 56 paise during the session, pressured by rising energy costs, foreign fund outflows and broad-based weakness in domestic equities, PTI reported.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.05 and slid further to an intraday record low of 92.35 against the greenback. It eventually ended the session at 92.05, marking its lowest-ever closing level.The domestic forex market remained shut on Tuesday due to the Holi holiday. On Monday, the rupee had already fallen 41 paise to settle at 91.49 against the US dollar.Forex traders said the global risk-off mood triggered by the US-Iran conflict strengthened the dollar and intensified pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupee.Foreign investors sold equities worth Rs 8,752.65 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data, further weighing on the currency.“A sharp escalation in Middle East conflict and the consequent spike in oil prices have reduced investor risk appetite. Higher oil prices increase inflation concerns and fiscal pressure on India (a major oil importer), leading to selling in bonds and rising yields,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.23 per cent lower at 98.82.“The dollar index crossed 98 levels comfortably on the risk-off situation prevailing all around the globe with stocks and bond markets getting hit badly, along with Gold and Silver, with predominance of the dollar,” Bhansali said.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.29 per cent higher at USD 82.46 per barrel in futures trade, as supply concerns intensified after US attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions raised fears over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said, “The Indian rupee recorded its steepest two-session decline since May 2025, as soaring energy prices intensified fears of persistent inflation and a widening trade deficit.This prevailing risk-off sentiment, coupled with high energy costs, is expected to keep the currency under pressure in the near term. Investors are closely monitoring the longevity of the Middle East conflict, as a prolonged standoff would likely drive up the import cost of energy and precious metals while hindering export growth.”According to Parmar, the spot USDINR pair faces immediate resistance at 92.60, while key support is seen at 91.80.On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex dropped 1,122.66 points to close at 79,116.19, while the NSE Nifty declined 385.20 points to settle at 24,480.50.



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Trump sides with crypto firms in trillion-dollar battle with banks over stablecoin yield

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Trump sides with crypto firms in trillion-dollar battle with banks over stablecoin yield


US President Donald Trump boards Air Force One before departing Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on March 1, 2026, on his way back to Washington, DC.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind crypto firms in their high-stakes battle with U.S. banks over whether they can offer interest-like returns on stablecoins.

Trump, in a social media post late Tuesday, ratcheted up pressure on banks to relent on the stablecoin yield issue.

That’s the key point of contention holding up passage in Congress of the Clarity Act, which is a companion bill to the Genius Act approved last year, setting up a framework for regulated stablecoins.

“The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable,” Trump said in his post. “They need to make a good deal with the Crypto Industry because that’s what’s in best interest of the American People.”

Coinbase shares surged as much as 13% in early trading Wednesday, while shares of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America fell less than 1%.

While Trump’s decision to back the crypto industry could sway members of his Republican Party in the GOP-led Congress, it’s unclear whether his support is enough to ensure the bill’s passage. The move also raises fresh questions over potential conflict of interests, as the president and his family have reportedly generated hundreds of millions of dollars in wealth from interests in firms including the crypto platform World Liberty Financial.

The dispute between the industries centers on whether crypto firms like Coinbase can offer yields on stablecoins. While crypto companies see it as a consumer-friendly innovation that will let people earn money on their idle funds, banks have warned that the competing product could siphon trillions of dollars from their industry.

$6.6 trillion threat?

Executives from JPMorgan and Bank of America, the two largest American lenders by assets, have cited a Treasury study that indicated that banks could lose up to $6.6 trillion in deposits if stablecoins offered a yield.

That could destabilize some banks, especially smaller ones, and remove a source of funding for loans to businesses across the country.

Allowing the less-regulated crypto industry to behave like quasi-banks could heighten systemic risk, banks argue. Crypto firms say that the risks are contained and that stablecoins backed by Treasuries will boost demand for U.S. debt.

“It can’t be, you have these people doing one thing without any regulation, and these people doing another,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC’s Leslie Picker on Monday. “If you do that, the public will pay. It will get bad.”

In recent months, the president has hosted a series of White House meetings between the two sides in hopes of brokering a deal, but the banks haven’t relented, according to people with knowledge of the gatherings.

Now, he is explicitly putting his weight behind crypto.

“Americans should earn money on their money,” Trump said in the post. “This industry cannot be taken from the People of America when it is so close to becoming truly successful.”

‘Full of s–t’

That phrasing is similar to language that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has used in interviews. Coinbase is the largest U.S. crypto platform and provides yield to members through what critics in the banking industry call a “loophole” in current regulations.

Armstrong, seen by banks as their main adversary in this dispute, met with Trump at the White House shortly before the president’s social media post Tuesday, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting. That detail was reported earlier by Politico.

Both banks and crypto firms have reasons to support passage of the Clarity Act, but it’s unclear whether that will happen, given the disagreement. Earlier this year, Trump attempted to pressure banks to cap credit card interest rates, but the industry had enough support among both Republicans and Democrats to ward off that threat.

Tensions between Armstrong and banking CEOs have climbed since the Coinbase CEO publicly called out banks for their opposition to stablecoin yields.

In January, Dimon reportedly told Armstrong he was “full of s–t” during a chance interaction at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.



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Reeves to stress commitment to end windfall tax in talks with North Sea bosses

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Reeves to stress commitment to end windfall tax in talks with North Sea bosses



Rachel Reeves will reaffirm her commitment to “end” the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas as she meets energy bosses.

The Chancellor is set to discuss the gas and oil prices sent soaring by the Middle East war in talks with firms including BP, TotalEnergies and Serica.

Ms Reeves came under pressure ahead of the Downing Street talks from Scottish First Minister John Swinney to axe the charge, which is officially known as the energy profits levy.

Introduced by the Tory government in the wake of the war in Ukraine – which sparked a sharp rise in energy prices – the charge was brought in to claw back some of these unexpected profits for the Treasury.

The Prime Minister’s spokesman told reporters: “The Chancellor will convene a meeting with industry leaders from oil and gas firms today… including BP, TotalEnergies and Serica.

“And they’ll discuss the ongoing volatility in the oil and gas prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.

“The Chancellor will make clear that she remains committed to end the energy profits levy and replace it with a more permanent and predictable regime.

“She’ll be reaffirming her commitment to support jobs and investment in the industry and look at ways to protect everyday people from the downstream impact of these costs.”

Earlier, Mr Swinney again insisted it was “utterly essential” that the UK Government scrapped the windfall tax, which he said was impacting upon investment in the North Sea and costing jobs.

He said the current “uncertainty over energy supplies” as a result of the conflict in the Middle East was now a “material consideration” for the scrapping of the charge – which is officially known as the energy profits levy.

Speaking during a visit to Inverness, Mr Swinney said he had hoped the Chancellor would use Tuesday’s spring statement to axe it.

When that did not happen, Holyrood’s Finance Secretary Shona Robison said Ms Reeves must use Wednesday’s meeting with North Sea industry leaders to “announce an end to this tax on Scotland’s energy”.

Mr Swinney meanwhile insisted: “Now that we have the conflict in the Middle East I think it is utterly essential that the energy profits levy is removed.

“I had hoped it would be removed yesterday in the spring statement. It hasn’t been but the Chancellor is meeting the industry today.

“And I hope that results in the removal of the energy profits levy.”

Mr Swinney, speaking to the Press Association, added: “I’ve been saying to the UK Government for some time that the energy profits levy should be removed because it is hampering investment in the North Sea oil and gas sector, which is resulting in a loss of employment at a much faster rate than we anticipated.”

With the conflict in the Middle East leading to “uncertainty over energy supplies in the period to come” the First Minister said that was now a “material consideration in whether the energy profits levy should be maintained”.

He insisted however: “I don’t think there is a case for it and it should be removed.”



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