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RBI Monetary Policy Committee Unlikely To Cut Rates In October: Report

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RBI Monetary Policy Committee Unlikely To Cut Rates In October: Report


New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is anticipated to maintain the status quo on the repo rate in its October review, considering the positive impact of GST reforms on demand, stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 GDP growth, and an inflation trajectory which is expected to slope upwards thereafter, a report said on Thursday. 

The inflation trajectory remained lower due to GST rationalisation (FY2026 average now around 2.6 per cent). The transmission of the past 100 bps rate cut is assessed as nearly complete for fresh deposits (-94 bps) but muted for outstanding deposits (-18 bps), ICRA said in its report.

Similarly, the Weighted Average Lending Rate for fresh loans declined by 60 bps, compared to a 42-bps easing for outstanding loans. Further significant transmission to lending rates is considered limited in the coming months.

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According to the report, the 10-year G-sec yield for the government bond market is projected to trade between 6.40-6.60 per cent, with the yield curve expected to remain steep. This is due to comfortable liquidity keeping short-term rates steady, while long-term yields remain sticky amid fiscal concerns and demand-supply dynamics.

“Internationally, the spread between the 10Y India G-sec and the 10Y US Treasury yield widened to 236 bps in September 2025 from 209 bps at the end of June 2025, following a US Fed rate cut,” the report said. Systemic liquidity surplus cooled in September 2025 after being sizable in June-August 2025, due to advance tax outflows.

Additionally, a pending 75 bps CRR cut during October-November 2025 and G-sec redemptions (Rs. 1.0 trillion) in early-November 2025 are expected to support liquidity, offsetting festive season currency leakage pressure, the report stated.

The RBI may continue Variable Rate Repos (VRRs) to manage intermittent tightness. According to the report, GST rationalisation is expected to dampen headline CPI inflation by 25-50 bps during Q3 FY2026-Q2 FY2027 relative to earlier estimates

“Average CPI inflation for FY2026 is now projected at around 2.6 per cent (against 3.0 per cent earlier),” the report noted.



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From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India

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From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India


A month into the Middle East conflict, its ripple effects are felt across economies worldwide. The crisis was triggered on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, setting off a chain of events that has tightened Tehran’s grip over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, remains one of the world’s most critical energy routes. At its narrowest, it spans just 29 nautical miles, with limited navigable channels for shipping.Carrying around 20 million barrels of oil daily, nearly a quarter of global seaborne trade, any disruption here has far-reaching consequences. As supplies come under strain, countries are scrambling to manage the fallout while cushioning consumers through a mix of policy responses. While some have raised fuel prices, others restructured taxes to protect consumers.

Vietnam

Vietnam consumers have breathed a sigh of relief as the country has lowered fuel prices. Faced with a sharp spike in fuel costs, Vietnam rolled out emergency measures to bring costs under control. Authorities have suspended environmental protection taxes on petrol, diesel and aviation fuel until mid-April, in a bid to steady the domestic market. The trade ministry described the step as “an urgent and effective solution to stabilize the petroleum market and ensure national energy security amidst the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating the ‘biggest energy bottleneck ever’.” The move has led to a steep fall in prices, with petrol dropping by roughly 26% and diesel by more than 15% after earlier surges.

Venezuela

In Venezuela, prolonged high temperatures have intensified pressure on an already strained power system, prompting the government to scale back activity. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced a week-long suspension of work across the public sector, including education, as part of an electricity-saving drive. “During this Holy Week, I want to announce that I have decreed days off on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the entire education sector,” she said, adding that the country had endured “45 days of high temperatures.” While essential services will remain operational, the step reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity demand.

India

In India, the government has taken a range of steps to cushion consumers and companies from the ongoing energy supply crisis. With refining costs climbing sharply, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, despite the impact on state revenues. At the same time, export duties were introduced on diesel and aviation turbine fuel to manage supply pressures. Officials insisted there is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG, dismissing claims of disruption as a “coordinated misinformation campaign.” Domestic LPG availability remains stable, with production increased and states asked to expand commercial distribution.

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“As if Hardeep Puri is giving money from his pocket…”: OPPN STRONG take on fuel excise move

Pakistan

Pakistan is facing mounting pressure from rising fuel costs, with the government adjusting prices selectively while trying to shield consumers. Kerosene prices have been increased by PKR 4.66 per litre to PKR 433.40, effective March 28, even as petrol and diesel rates remain unchanged at PKR 321.17 and PKR 335.86 per litre. Authorities said the decision aims to protect consumers from global price swings, with the state absorbing part of the burden through payments of PKR 95.59 per litre on petrol and PKR 203.88 per litre on diesel to oil marketing companies.At the same time, aviation fuel prices have surged sharply, rising for the fifth time in 28 days. A latest increase of PKR 5 per litre has pushed jet fuel to a record PKR 476.97 per litre, up from PKR 188 at the start of March — a jump of PKR 288. Airlines have already raised fares, with domestic one-way tickets on routes such as Karachi-Islamabad and Karachi-Lahore reaching up to PKR 40,000, while “chance seat” fares have surged by as much as 150%. Amid these pressures, work patterns are also adjusting in response to the energy strain, with measures aimed at reducing overall fuel consumption forming part of the wider response.

Egypt

Egypt has introduced a series of temporary restrictions to reduce energy consumption as fuel costs climb. Retail outlets, restaurants and cafes are now required to shut by 21:00 each night, alongside measures such as reduced street lighting and limited remote working. The government termed these “exceptional measures” in response to mounting pressure on energy supplies. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly said that the country’s petrol expenditure had more than doubled in recent months. Although tourism-related businesses are exempt, the wider economy is feeling the strain, particularly due to reliance on imported fuel.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is tightening energy use as supply disruptions continue to strain the country’s fuel system. With around 60 percent of its energy imported and limited reserves covering barely a month, authorities have reintroduced a QR-based rationing system. Weekly limits have been set, including eight litres for motorbikes, 20 for tuk-tuks, 25 for cars, 100 litres of diesel for buses and 200 for lorries. Fuel prices have also risen by about 33 percent since the start of the war, adding pressure on households.To curb consumption, the government has introduced a no-work-on-Wednesday policy, shutting offices and schools on that day. Alongside fuel shortages, Sri Lankan citizens are also struggling with disrupted fertiliser supplies which could push food prices higher, with estimates pointing to a potential 15% increase, further compounding the cost-of-living strain.



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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India

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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India


India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.



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Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, dies at 87 in Mumbai – The Times of India

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Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, dies at 87 in Mumbai – The Times of India


Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, Padma Bhushan awardee and noted aviator, has passed away.He died in Mumbai at the age of 87.His son Gautam Singhania, chairman and managing director of the Raymond Group, announced the death on microblogging platform X.A company spokesperson said Singhania passed away “peacefully” and his last rites will be performed on Sunday, reported PTI.A recipient of the Padma Bhushan, Vijaypat Singhania was known not only for his leadership at Raymond but also for his passion for aviation. He held a world record for achieving the highest altitude in a hot air balloon.He led Raymond as chairman for around two decades until 2000, after which he handed over the reins of the company to Gautam Singhania. He had also transferred his entire 37 per cent stake in the company to his son.Vijaypat Singhania and Gautam Singhania were later involved in legal disputes, which were subsequently resolved.



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