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Retail spending fell in March as consumers pull back

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Retail spending fell in March as consumers pull back




Washington, DC
CNN
 — 

Spending at US retailers fell in March as consumers pulled back after the banking crisis fueled recession fears.

Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation, fell by 1% in March from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That was steeper than an expected 0.4% decline, according to Refinitiv, and above the revised 0.2% decline in the prior month.

Investors chalk up some of the weakness to a lack of tax returns and concerns about a slowing labor market. The IRS issued $84 billion in tax refunds this March, about $25 billion less than they issued in March of 2022, according to BofA analysts.

That led consumers to pull back in spending at department stores and on durable goods, such as appliances and furniture. Spending at general merchandise stores fell 3% in March from the prior month and spending at gas stations declined 5.5% during the same period. Excluding gas station sales, retail spending retreated 0.6% in March from February.

However, retail spending rose 2.9% year-over-year.

Smaller tax returns likely played a role in last month’s decline in retail sales, along with the expiration of enhanced food assistance benefits, economists say.

“March is a really important month for refunds. Some folks might have been expecting something similar to last year,” Aditya Bhave, senior US economist at BofA Global Research, told CNN.

Credit and debit card spending per household tracked by Bank of America researchers moderated in March to its slowest pace in more than two years, which was likely the result of smaller returns and expired benefits, coupled with slowing wage growth.

Enhanced pandemic-era benefits provided through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program expired in February, which might have also held back spending in March, according to a Bank of America Institute report.

Average hourly earnings grew 4.2% in March from a year earlier, down from the prior month’s annualized 4.6% increase and the smallest annual rise since June 2021, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Cost Index, a more comprehensive measure of wages, has also shown that worker pay gains have moderated this past year. ECI data for the first quarter of this year will be released later this month.

Still, the US labor market remains solid, even though it has lost momentum recently. That could hold up consumer spending in the coming months, said Michelle Meyer, North America chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute.

“The big picture is still favorable for the consumer when you think about their income growth, their balance sheet and the health of the labor market,” Meyer said.

Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, a robust gain by historical standards but smaller than the average monthly pace of job growth in the prior six months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed that the number of available jobs remained elevated in February — but was down more than 17% from its peak of 12 million in March 2022, and revised data showed that weekly claims for US unemployment benefits were higher than previously reported.

The job market could cool further in the coming months. Economists at the Federal Reserve expect the US economy to head into a recession later in the year as the lagged effects of higher interest rates take a deeper hold. Fed economists had forecast subdued growth, with risks of a recession, prior to the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

For consumers, the effects of last month’s turbulence in the banking industry have been limited so far. Consumer sentiment tracked by the University of Michigan worsened slightly in March during the bank failures, but it had already shown signs of deteriorating before then.

The latest consumer sentiment reading, released Friday morning, showed that sentiment held steady in April despite the banking crisis, but that higher gas prices helped push up year-ahead inflation expectations by a full percentage point, rising from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April.

“On net, consumers did not perceive material changes in the economic environment in April,” Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, said in a news release.

“Consumers are expecting a downturn, they’re not feeling as dismal as they were last summer, but they’re waiting for the other shoe to drop,” Hsu told Bloomberg TV in an interview Friday morning.

This story has been updated with context and more details.



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Law firms helping migrants pose as gay to get asylum in UK: report

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Law firms helping migrants pose as gay to get asylum in UK: report


This representational image shows commuters cross London Bridge, in London, Britain, January 13, 2025. — Reuters
This representational image shows commuters cross London Bridge, in London, Britain, January 13, 2025. — Reuters 

LONDON: A BBC undercover investigation has alleged that a network of immigration advisers, paralegals and associated intermediaries has been helping migrants fabricate asylum claims in the UK by falsely presenting themselves as gay, charging thousands of pounds for false narratives, staged evidence and interview coaching.

At least three law firms – one of these owned by Pakistanis – have been accused by the BBC of fabricating the asylum claims through illegal means.

The law firms include Law and Justice Solicitors and Connaught Law. Law and Justice is owned by Michael Oluyemi Makinde and Connaught Law is owned by Nauman Javid, Sheryar Khan, Zehra Tamkan and Awais Javed.

According to the BBC investigation, the abuse centres on migrants, particularly from Pakistan and Bangladesh, whose student, work or tourist visas are close to expiring and who are then allegedly advised to seek asylum on the basis of sexual orientation, as being gay or lesbian.

Using undercover reporters posing as international students from Pakistan and Bangladesh, the BBC said it tested whether immigration advisers would encourage false sexuality-based asylum claims.

It reported finding multiple individuals willing to discuss fake claims, suggest supporting evidence and quote fees for handling such cases. Among the findings were allegations that Connaught Law firm quoted up to £7,000 for a fabricated claim and described the chances of refusal as “very low”, while another adviser allegedly offered to arrange fake supporting letters, photographs and even a supposed sexual partner to back up an asylum application.

The BBC undercover reporter made an appointment with Aqeel Abbasi, a senior legal adviser at Connaught Law, which has its offices in Central London on Gray’s Inn Road.

Abbasi told the BBC reporter that he could help him stay in the country and appeared to be willing to direct him on how to fabricate evidence for a fake claim. He promised that the chance of refusal by the Home Office was “very low”.

He said his fee would be £7,000 and, once that had been paid, his office would contact the undercover reporter to guide them through the process and the kind of evidence required.

This would include advising him on “where to go or what specific actions to take”.

The legal adviser also suggested the undercover reporter would need to find someone willing to pretend to be his male/gay partner. When the reporter said he had a wife in Pakistan, Abbasi was quick to suggest a cover story to explain this, by saying that things were “more open” in the UK than in Pakistan and that he now had a male partner.

“We will prepare a statement for you, and once you read it, you will understand exactly how it is,” said Abbasi.

A significant part of the investigation focused on Worcester LGBT, a support organisation for gay and lesbian asylum seekers, which holds monthly meetings attended by large numbers of migrants from across the country.

The BBC traced the undercover reporter’s route to the group through Mazedul Hasan Shakil, a paralegal at Law and Justice Solicitors, an immigration firm based in Birmingham and London, who is also described as founder and chairman of Worcester LGBT.

The reporter received a call from a woman identified as Tanisa (Shakil’s associate), who, in Urdu, allegedly became much more direct about using a “gay case” as the only realistic route to stay in Britain.

When told the reporter was not gay, Tanisa replied: “There is nobody who is real. There is only one way out in order to live here now and that is the very method everyone is adopting.” The BBC identified her as Tanisa Khan, an adviser linked to Worcester LGBT.

The broadcaster then described an initial meeting in Forest Gate, east London, which took place in Tanisa’s home.

According to the report, she laid out a plan to fabricate an asylum claim on the grounds of same-sex orientation, warning that the applicant would have to memorise a false story convincingly for Home Office interviews. The report said she offered to obtain a letter from someone claiming to have had sexual relations with the applicant and said she would fully prepare him for the Home Office process.

She charged £2,500, with additional costs if the claim failed and went to appeal. The BBC also said she suggested that if the reporter later brought his wife from Pakistan to Britain, she too could make a false asylum claim by pretending to be lesbian.

The BBC showed its footage to immigration lawyer Ana Gonzalez, who has 30 years of experience. She said Tanisa appeared to be “committing fraud by manufacturing a claim” and warned that such conduct makes life harder for genuine asylum seekers, especially LGBT claimants whose cases are often difficult to prove objectively.

The report said precise figures for fabricated claims are impossible to establish, but Home Office data suggests a disproportionate number of sexuality-based asylum claims come from Pakistani nationals.

In 2023, there were 3,430 initial decisions on LGBT asylum claims and nearly 1,400 new claims based on sexual orientation. Of these, 42% were lodged by Pakistani nationals, who also accounted for the highest number in each of the previous five years. The article noted that Pakistanis were only the fourth most common nationality across all asylum applications and made up just 6% of total claims overall.

Nearly two-thirds of asylum seekers claiming persecution on grounds of sexual orientation had their claims granted at initial decision stage in 2023.

The Home Office told the BBC that making an asylum claim through deception is a criminal offence and that anyone convicted can face prison and deportation.

It said misuse of protections designed for people fleeing genuine persecution because of their sexuality was deplorable, but insisted that the asylum system includes safeguards and that claims are rigorously assessed.

The department added that abuse is actively investigated and procedures are continually reviewed.





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Iran says to host Pakistani delegation as exchanges continue with US

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Iran says to host Pakistani delegation as exchanges continue with US



Iran will be hosting a high-ranking political and security delegation from Pakistan on Wednesday, as indirect exchanges of messages between Tehran and Washington continue, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman announced.

Esmail Baghaei, speaking in response to a question from IRNA, confirmed that Tehran is expected to receive the Pakistani delegation today.

“Today, we are most likely hosting a delegation from Pakistan,” Baghaei said.

“Following the talks that took place in Islamabad, and also the discussions that the Pakistani side has had with the United States, our views have been conveyed and heard,” he said.

He added, “Naturally, during this visit, the two sides are expected to discuss their viewpoints in detail.”

Meanwhile, informed sources in Pakistan confirmed that a high-level security-political delegation, comprising prominent Pakistani figures, left Islamabad for Tehran a short while ago, IRIB news reported.

According to the sources, the delegation is carrying a new message from Washington for Tehran.

The delegation is scheduled to meet with Iranian officials to discuss future negotiations, the sources said.

The development comes as a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States will expire on April 22.

The United States and Israel launched their unprovoked war of aggression against Iran on February 28, assassinating the Leader of the Islamic Revolution and striking nuclear facilities, schools, hospitals and civilian infrastructure.



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Israel must not be allowed to sabotage US-Iran ceasefire: Turkey’s Erdogan

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Israel must not be allowed to sabotage US-Iran ceasefire: Turkey’s Erdogan



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned against the Israeli regime’s attempts to sabotage a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, saying that Ankara will push for an extension of the truce and ensure peace talks continue in Pakistan.

Addressing a parliament session on Wednesday, Erdogan said that the Israeli prime minister’s cabinet, “which is known to be unhappy with the ceasefire process, must not be allowed to sabotage it.”

The Turkish leader said that his government is making the “necessary appeals and initiatives” to ease tensions and extend the ceasefire, which is set to expire on April 20.

The two-week ceasefire, announced last week, 40 days after the US and the Israeli regime launched their war of aggression against Iran, provided a fragile window for diplomacy. It will expire on April 22.

Over the weekend, high-level peace talks between US and Iranian officials took place in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. While the talks ended without an agreement, regional governments are urging both sides to return to the negotiating table.

Erdogan also urged the two sides to utilize “the window of opportunity opened by the ceasefire” before its expiration.

“If there is to be peace in our region, it will be despite the Zionist regime,” Erdogan said. “If stability is achieved, it will again be despite the Israeli government.”

The Turkish president also condemned the aggression against Lebanon, warning that continued airstrikes are harming hopes for peace.

He said that Turkey will continue “to be the follower of the cause of children killed in their sleep in Lebanon,” referring to Israel’s airstrikes that have killed more than 2,000 people—including many women and children—since early March, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

Despite the fact that the ceasefire between the US and Iran explicitly covered Lebanon, the Israeli regime continues its military aggression against the country, blatantly ignoring the terms of the truce.

This ongoing aggression is seen by regional observers as a deliberate attempt by Tel Aviv to sabotage the peace talks.



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