BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Bruce Pearl’s retirement last month was a surprise to his Auburn team and even his son Steven, who succeeded his father as the Tigers’ new head coach.

But Pearl’s announcement was not a shock to everyone.

Steven Pearl said he didn’t officially know about his father’s decision until the day before the Tigers’ first practice. Bruce Pearl, however, had told Auburn athletic director John Cohen years ago that he had been thinking about retirement.

“Three years ago, [my father] told him, like, ‘Listen, I don’t know how much longer I’m going to do this,'” Steven said Wednesday at SEC media day. “So [Cohen] has been actively, in his mind, being prepared for this for three years now and going through all the different options of, ‘Do I bring in an outside coaching staff? Do I bring in a big-name guy or watch this grow? Does the staff grow as a unit and stay together and not go chasing other assistant jobs, not go chasing other coaching jobs?’ And he ultimately felt like the staff had earned the right and the opportunity to continue to move this thing forward.”

Bruce Pearl’s retirement followed months of speculation that he would leave coaching to pursue Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat that had been vacated by Tommy Tuberville, the former Auburn football coach who is now running for governor of the state.

Steven said the past three weeks have been, as expected, a frenzy. But he also said his time with his father — he played for his father at Tennessee and spent more than a decade as his assistant — helped prepare him for the role at Auburn, which is ranked 20th in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll.

“As far as when it hit me, it didn’t hit me until I showed up at the gym and [my father] was filming his goodbye video and [Cohen] pulled me aside and he was like, ‘Hey, you’re the guy,'” Steven said. “So then I was like, ‘All right, here we go. Let’s go.’ It all happened really fast, but I’m ready because I spent 38 years watching [my father] do this.”

Steven said the continuity of the staff and the stability of his team has eased his transition. His staff has a combined 40 years of coaching experience at Auburn under Bruce, who is now an ambassador for the university. Every player decided to stay despite having a 30-day window to enter the portal and transfer, according to NCAA rules on coaching changes.

Tahaad Pettiford, a star for a Tigers team that reached the Final Four for the second time in team history last season, said the players found out about Bruce Pearl’s decision when they all received a text message to return to the gym the day of the announcement.

Pettiford said he never once considered transferring after Steven was announced as head coach. But Pettiford is also the only remaining player on the roster who played for Auburn in the team’s loss to Florida in the Final Four.

“It’s definitely something new for me coming into this with 10 new guys,” he said. “It’s definitely different from being the youngest guy on the team last year to being one of the older guys on this year’s team.

“I’m just trying to give them the stuff that I learned last year and trying to pass that down to the new guys, especially some of the freshmen, and trying to give them the blueprint of what we did last year and how we were successful.”

Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.

Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 yards passing and 200 rushing per game. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make to challenge in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.

Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most-difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Tennessee

Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.

Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: USC

Work to do: Nebraska, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.

Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge with a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …

Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah

Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Nearly eight months after Jayden Quaintance tore his right ACL, Kentucky coach Mark Pope said Tuesday there is no chance the sophomore star will skip this season to rehab and prepare for the NBA.

The 6-foot-10 forward and Arizona State transfer is projected as the sixth pick in ESPN’s latest 2026 mock draft. Pope, a former NBA big man, said the team has been cautious with Quaintance’s rehab in part because of his future at the next level. But he also said he can’t imagine a scenario in which Quaintance won’t suit up for the Wildcats later this season.

“I’m not exactly sure how long of a wait it is, but I don’t think there is a chance we could keep him from playing this season,” Pope said at SEC media day. “He’s too talented. He’s worked too hard.”

Kentucky is ranked ninth in the Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll. Pope said the ranking made him happy because the team believes the program’s ninth national championship “is our future destiny.”

There was more good news Tuesday as Otega Oweh was named the SEC preseason player of the year, but Quaintance’s recovery could be the most important factor in the Wildcats’ pursuit of its ultimate goal.

Quaintance is a skilled big man and a physical force. During an exhibition against Duke last year, he arguably frustrated Wooden Award winner Cooper Flagg more than any other defender Flagg faced in the 2024-25 campaign. Quaintance scored 18 points in 26 minutes against Kansas State in his last game of the season before he suffered his injury.

According to teammates, Quaintance is eager to return, perhaps sooner rather than later if he’s allowed. Denzel Aberdeen, the Florida transfer who helped the Gators win the national title in April, said Quaintance has impressed his teammates with his work ethic.

“He’s working very hard to get back. He is always dribbling a basketball everywhere he goes,” Aberdeen said. “He’s been in and out of the treatment room doing what he has to do to get back, fast and quick. From 7 a.m., he doesn’t leave until about 6 or 7 p.m. He’s always happy and always cheering us on in practices, even though he knows he wants to get out there and compete. He’s going to be back real soon, and when he does, he’s going to be great.”

Pope would not say whether he had a definitive date for Quaintance (9.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG) to return this season, but he said staff members have been stunned by Quaintance’s progress in less than eight months. Pope expects him to be a major contributor to the program before he takes his talent to the next level.

“He is as unique an individual as I’ve ever had the privilege of recruiting, coaching — physically and mentally and emotionally,” Pope said. “So with him, he has been racing back to help at lightning speed. Right now, it’s remarkable what he’s doing. We’re all kind of shaking our heads like, ‘How is this humanly possible?’ He feels like he’s on the verge of being ready to go in. We’re just hitting the brakes full time right now to be sure because his future is going to be incredibly bright in this game.”