US stock markets fell on Thursday as investors turned cautious after the previous session’s rally, while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 801 points, or 1.6 per cent, dragged down by losses in stocks such as Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs. The S&P 500 declined 0.9 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6 per cent.The selloff came as crude oil prices jumped to their highest level since June 2025 after Iran said it had struck an oil tanker with a missile. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged 6 per cent to trade above $79 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude futures rose about 3 per cent to more than $84 per barrel. Oil prices had stabilised in the previous trading session.Markets had rallied on Wednesday, supported by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. The Dow had snapped a three-day losing streak, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the session with solid gains.Despite the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, US markets have performed relatively better than European and Asian counterparts this week, largely supported by a rebound in technology stocks that had been hit hard during February’s selloff.The tech-led recovery in the previous session helped the Nasdaq erase its weekly losses, putting the index on track to end the week in positive territory if gains hold through Friday.Investors remain concerned that prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a key global energy corridor –could push oil prices higher and add to inflationary pressures through rising energy and shipping costs.Markets are particularly wary of crude prices moving towards $100 per barrel, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation while considering interest-rate cuts.“For the past couple of years, bringing inflation down has been the Fed’s entire focus, and they were finally making progress. But if energy stays expensive, inflation could start climbing again and that would force the Fed to rethink its plans,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments, Reuters quoted.According to data compiled by LSEG, investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to delay a 25-basis-point interest rate cut to September from the previously anticipated July timeline.Among sectors, healthcare led declines on the S&P 500, dropping 1.6 per cent. The energy index, however, gained 0.7 per cent, with shares of ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy rising about 2 per cent each.The CBOE volatility index (VIX), widely seen as a gauge of market fear, rose 0.9 points to 22.08, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 1 per cent.Travel and tourism stocks, which are sensitive to fuel costs, were under pressure. Delta Air Lines slipped 3.3 per cent, while Royal Caribbean Cruises declined 0.6 per cent.On the other hand, some travel booking companies rallied sharply. Booking Holdings jumped 11 per cent and Expedia surged 8 per cent after a report by The Information said OpenAI was scaling back on-platform shopping checkout plans for ChatGPT, easing concerns about disruption to online marketplace businesses.Chip stocks showed mixed performance. Nvidia edged down 0.3 per cent, while Marvell Technology gained 1.3 per cent.Shares of Broadcom rose 2.9 per cent after the chip designer projected that its artificial intelligence chip revenue could exceed $100 billion next year.Elsewhere, Trade Desk surged 22.5 per cent following a report that OpenAI had held early discussions with the advertising technology company regarding the sale of advertisements.Economic data released on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits remained unchanged last week.Investors are also awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman later in the day, ahead of the closely watched non-farm payrolls report due on Friday.On the New York Stock Exchange, declining stocks outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 2.48-to-1, while on the Nasdaq the ratio stood at 1.63-to-1.The S&P 500 recorded four new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite registered 17 new highs and 33 new lows.

Beyond oil, the Middle East crisis has other implications for the Indian economy, especially if the US-Israel-Iran war continues for a long duration leading to major supply disruptions. In recent days, a series of missile and drone attacks have struck multiple energy and logistics installations across the Gulf region. These incidents have heightened concerns that shipments of oil and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for global energy trade – could face disruption.Between March 1 and March 3, important facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman came under attack. The situation has fueled concerns that the conflict could trigger a wider shock to global energy supplies.But beyond oil, it’s important to note that West Asia plays an important role in supplying India with essential commodities. In 2025, India’s imports from the region of approximately $98.7 billion included critical resources such as energy, fertilisers and industrial inputs.

1. Oil: Immediate risk

Petroleum is the most immediate area of exposure. In 2025, India sourced roughly $70 billion crude oil and petroleum products from West Asia.“Crude oil feeds India’s refineries, which produce petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstocks used across the economy. India has about 30 days of stocks, any prolonged disruption in shipments could quickly push up fuel prices, raising transport and logistics costs and feeding into inflation. Farmers would also feel the pressure through higher diesel prices for irrigation pumps and tractors,” says Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).Also Read | Russian crude to rescue! Ships carrying Russia’s oil head to India amid Middle East supply shock: Report

2. LNG Supplies

Supplies of natural gas are also exposed to potential disruptions. In 2025, India sourced liquefied natural gas or LNG worth $9.2 billion from West Asia, which is around 68.4% of its total LNG imports. LNG is also a key input for fertilizer manufacturing units, gas-fired power plants and city gas distribution systems that provide compressed natural gas (CNG) for vehicles and piped gas for household cooking.Signs of this vulnerability have already emerged. Qatar’s Petronet LNG halted LNG deliveries to GAIL starting March 4, 2026 due to restrictions affecting vessel movement.

3. Risks to LPG

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports from West Asia were $13.9 billion in 2025, making up 46.9 % of India’s total LPG purchases. LPG continues to serve as the main cooking fuel for millions of households. With reserves covering only about two weeks of consumption, any interruption in supply could quickly impact the availability of cooking fuel.

4. Exposure in Fertiliser Supplies

India’s agricultural sector could also feel the impact through fertiliser imports, says GTRI in its report. In 2025, fertiliser purchases from West Asia stood at $3.7 billion. Any disruption in supplies during the crop cycle could lead to reduced fertilizer availability, increase the government’s subsidy burden and eventually push up food prices.Also Read | India’s energy security exposure to Middle East: How much oil, LPG, LNG reserves do we have?

5. Diamond Trade and Exports

India’s diamond export sector is also closely tied to supplies from the Gulf. Diamonds of around $6.8 billion were imported from the Middle East in 2025, which is 40.6% of its total imports of these stones. Rough diamonds are in turn processed in India’s cutting and polishing centres, especially in Gujarat’s Surat, before being exported to international markets as polished gems. Any interruption in the flow of raw diamonds could slow manufacturing activity and have an impact on employment within the jewellery industry.

6. Industrial Raw Material Supplies

A number of industrial inputs sourced from the Gulf are also crucial for India’s manufacturing sector. India bought polyethylene polymers of around $1.2 billion from West Asia in 2025. Polyethylene is widely used in products such as packaging materials, plastic piping, storage containers, consumer goods and agricultural films used in irrigation systems.

7. Construction-Related Materials

India’s construction industry also relies heavily on mineral imports from the region. In 2025, the country imported limestone worth $483 million from West Asia. Limestone is a key ingredient in cement production, and hence any shortage could raise the cost of cement, thereby possibly slowing infrastructure development.

8. Metals Supply Chains

Supply links with West Asia also extend to the metals sector. India imported direct reduced iron of around $190 million from the Middle East region in 2025. Additionally, the country sourced copper wire worth $869 million from West Asia. Copper wire is widely used in power transmission networks, electrical machinery and renewable energy infrastructure.As GTRI notes: Together, these figures highlight how closely India’s economy is tied to West Asian supply chains. “If disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond a week, the effects could quickly spread from energy markets to fertiliser supplies, manufacturing inputs, construction materials and export industries such as diamonds. What begins as a regional conflict could rapidly evolve into a broader supply shock for the Indian economy,” the GTRI report concludes.