Business
Small businesses are being crushed by Trump’s tariffs, and economists say it’s a warning for the economy
President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Viresh Varma can’t sleep.
The CEO of AV Universal Corp., a small footwear company that sells through retailers like Macy’s, Nordstrom and DSW, said he needed to take out a $250,000 loan to pay his tariff bill on a container of shoes he imported from India for the holiday shopping season.
Varma didn’t have the cash on hand to pay the duties, which he said used to be around $7,500 for a similar-sized container before President Donald Trump‘s new tariffs. But without the financing, he wouldn’t have anything to sell during the holidays.
So the 64-year-old said he was faced with a choice: take on the line of credit— which came with onerous terms like weekly payments and a 32% interest rate — and raise prices to pay it back, or close the business he’s spent the last nine years building. He decided to take out the loan.
“Everybody believes that I’m a fighter, so I’m fighting it,” Varma told CNBC in an interview. “We’ve reduced some salaries. We had planned to hire some people we’re not going to hire anymore. … If things don’t look good, especially after increasing the prices, and we don’t get the sales, then obviously we may lay off some people, as well.”
AV Universal is just one of the many small businesses that are buckling under Trump’s global trade war, struggling to pay the sudden increase in duties and forecast what’s ahead as policy evolves. Businesses of all sizes have raised prices and negotiated with vendors to weather the tariff storm and many larger retailers have so far proven resilient, with minimal impact to their profitability and future growth outlooks. Better-than-expected quarterly reports have led investors to largely shrug off the tariff threat, as the S&P 500 hovers near record highs.
But the higher costs have hit smaller companies harder because they have fewer levers to pull than their larger competitors. Their margins are slimmer, their supply chains less diverse and their negotiating power with vendors dampened by the smaller sizes of their orders.
Small businesses owners interviewed by CNBC said they largely expect to be able to manage higher costs from tariffs by raising prices, but only if it doesn’t cause shoppers to buy less — which most are already starting to see.
Often called the backbone of the U.S. economy, small businesses routinely represent more than 40% of the nation’s GDP and employ nearly half of the American workforce, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Trump says his tariffs allow the U.S. to reduce its trade deficits with other nations and encourage domestic manufacturing, but some of the small business owners who spoke to CNBC said that’s happening partially at their expense.
The struggles they’re facing could be a warning sign for the rest of the economy and bigger businesses in 2026, said Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
“The small businesses … they’re kind of like the canary in the coal mine here,” said Smetters, the faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. “They’re going to get hit first, and then I think you’re going to see more of an impact with some delay on larger businesses.”
Larger retailers have been able to manage higher tariff costs in part because they had the foresight and ability to order extra inventory before the new duties went into effect, said Smetters. At a certain point, that stock will run out and push costs higher, and those companies only have so many low-tariff countries where they can produce goods.
The fate of many of Trump’s tariffs is unclear after a federal court ruled them illegal, prompting an appeal from the White House that the Supreme Court is now reviewing. The nation’s highest court, which includes three Trump appointees and has a 6-3 conservative majority, agreed to hear the appeal on a faster-than-normal timeline with arguments scheduled for the first week of November. It’s unclear how fast the justices will issue a ruling, and the tariffs remain in effect during the appeal.
CNBC spoke with around a dozen business owners to better understand how tariffs are affecting them. Here’s how much the duties are costing some of those companies — and what the businesses are doing to offset them.
AV Universal Corp.
Total tariffs paid in 2024: $45,000
Total tariffs expected in 2025: $353,125
Employees: 10
Supply chain: India 80%, Vietnam 15%, Europe 5%
Varma, AV’s CEO, spent much of his career in corporate America before deciding to get into the footwear business about a decade ago. He built three brands from scratch that are now sold online by Amazon, Macy’s, DSW, Nordstrom and other retailers. Varma was in the process of sending orders for the 2025 holiday season — which typically accounts for about 40% of AV’s annual revenue — when Trump announced tariffs on dozens of trading partners on April 2.
Thinking the president was bluffing, Varma placed an order for 20,000 pairs of shoes from his manufacturer in India, but ultimately only shipped half because he couldn’t line up the financing necessary to pay the expected tariff bill on the entire order. Varma expects holiday sales to drop about 30% because he’ll have less inventory to sell, but that decline could get worse if consumers balk at the higher prices he implemented. Since he increased prices earlier this year, sales fell about 30% in August and September.
Varma has searched across the globe to escape the Trump administration’s 50% tariff on Indian goods and is now considering moving his manufacturing to China, as long as Trump walks back his latest threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 100%.
Talus Products
Total tariffs paid in 2024: ~$223,000*
Total tariffs expected in 2025: ~$499,000*
Employees: 9
Supply chain: primarily China
*The figures are adjusted for order volume
Talus Products co-founder and CEO David McClees (middle left) pictured with his team during the holidays.
Handout
David McClees, co-founder and CEO of Talus Products, opened his business 38 years ago with a single product: an inflatable travel pillow. The company has since expanded into a range of items, including car organizers and other travel accessories, that it distributes through retailers like The Container Store, Amazon and airport gift shops.
McClees said he’s not worried about having to shut down operations, but said he expects tariffs to put a “severe crimp” in his annual profitability. The company raised prices on certain products to offset tariffs, but is waiting until January to hike again, partially over concerns it could dampen consumer demand during the holiday shopping season. Sales on Amazon, which account for more than half of Talus’ revenue, have already been “soft” in recent weeks, he said.
“We’re nervous,” said McClees. “We don’t typically offer huge discounts on Prime Day, but we do see a bump from their increased traffic, and that was smaller than what we would normally see. It seems like buyers are being very cautious.”
McClees attempted to move some of Talus’ production to Mexico and Vietnam, but said he ultimately decided it was too expensive.
Village Lighting
Total tariffs paid in 2024: less than $50,000
Total tariffs expected in 2025: at least $1 million
Employees: between 11 and 17, depending on season
Supply chain: 50% spread across Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Thailand, the other 50% in China
Village Lighting CEO Jared Hendricks (center, pictured in white) with his wife, children and son-in-law.
Handout
Jared Hendricks, founder and CEO of Village Lighting, started his business 20 years ago making Christmas lighting and decorations before expanding into holiday storage, selling directly to consumers via his website and through big-box stores like Walmart and Target. Since his business is centered around the holidays, his buying and cash flow needs are unique compared with others in the retail industry.
Every year, just before Christmas, he said he uses a $2 million line of credit he took out against his home to buy the inventory he needs for the following year’s holiday and then uses that eventual revenue to pay back the debt. This year, he had to use that line of credit to pay his tariff bill.
“Hopefully I can turn around and mark things up enough for people to buy them from me so I can pay back my tariff debt,” said Hendricks. “It’s to the point now where it could kill us, it could take us down, and I could lose everything. I can’t afford to not bring stuff in because I’ll have nothing to sell. So that’s a game over scenario.”
Because of Village Lighting’s unique buying schedule, the company had to take a loss on about 40% of its annual sales because the orders and pricing were already contractually agreed upon when many of the new duties went into effect. Hendricks said he hopes to make it up by raising prices on his website and wholesale customers. Sales so far this season have been down between 8% and 10% and he owes millions of dollars to his suppliers, who have agreed to accept late payments. Hendricks said the situation has created massive stress for him and his wife, adding that the challenges the Covid-19 pandemic posed to his business feel like “a piece of cake” compared with now.
“I call them my demons. They’re my two or three o’clock in the morning demons, where they just wake me up in a panic, like, ‘how am I going to pay for this? Or how am I going to make this work? What have I done? Should I have quit last April and just cashed in?'” said Hendricks. “Being a small business owner isn’t worth it when your country turns on you.”
Picnic Time
Total tariffs paid in 2024: $950,000
Total tariffs expected in 2025: $2.25 million
Employees: 75
Supply chain: 85%-90% in China, the remainder in India
Picnic Time CEO Paul Cosaro, shown in a gray shirt, with his family outside of the company’s headquarters.
Handout
Paul Cosaro’s family business, Picnic Time, was started 43 years ago by his father, an Italian immigrant on a mission to sell high-quality picnic baskets. The company now sells a wide range of products, from coolers to beach chairs, to major retailers like Kohl’s, Target and Macy’s. Since Trump’s new tariffs went into effect, Picnic Time had to freeze hiring and capital expenditures, limiting its ability to produce and release new products, Cosaro said.
“It absolutely has stifled innovation,” he said. “You don’t want to take risks anymore … there’s no room for error.”
Cosaro said he attempted to move his supply chain to other countries during Trump’s first term, hiring additional staff and conducting sourcing missions in India and Mexico. But years later, he was only able to move about 10% of production. He said he raised his prices earlier this year to account for the new tariffs and the third quarter has so far been “very, very, very soft.” Sales are down about 20% and key retailers have pulled back on orders. The holiday season is always important to Picnic Time, as it accounts for about 35% of annual revenue, but this year it feels like the company is putting “all of our eggs in one basket,” said Cosaro.
“For us, it’s critically important,” he said. “We’re literally going to be waiting until the last day of the year to find out if this is going to be a profitable year or not.” For now, Cosaro said he will keep his supply chain primarily in China. He’s considered moving some of it to the U.S., but said he doesn’t have the budget available to take the risk.
Citibin
Total tariffs paid in 2024: $67,883
Total tariffs expected in 2025: $380,000
Employees: 8
Supply chain: 90% Vietnam, 5% China, 5% U.S.
Frank Picarazzi, the chief operating officer of Citibin (left) with his wife Liz Picarazzi, the company’s founder and CEO (right).
Courtesy: Frank Picarazzi
When Liz Picarazzi first started Citibin, which makes rat-proof trash enclosures for cities, parks and homes, the company manufactured in the U.S. After a few years, she said she found U.S. producers couldn’t meet her expectations on price, quality or lead time. She moved production to China and for several years, the business enjoyed manageable tariffs and reliable partners. However, in the lead-up to the 2024 election, she and her husband Frank Picarazzi, Citibin’s COO, started looking for other options over concerns that either candidate would raise tariff rates.
“I told Frank two days after the election, ‘we’re going to Vietnam, like, as soon as we can,'” Liz Picarazzi said.
The couple spent the next few months moving most of their production to Vietnam, only to learn of Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports to 50%. That raised costs for just about every product Citibin sells. Though her supply chain is now more diversified, Liz Picarazzi said that moving to Vietnam was “somewhat pointless” as a result.
Meanwhile, she said higher costs are affecting talent retention, research and development, and revenue. The company has added a 15% tariff surcharge to products to offset the cost of tariffs. Frank Picarazzi said it has contributed to a 25% decline in sales to homeowners, which the company expects will account for about 50% of overall revenue this year.
Reekon Tools
Total tariffs paid in 2024: $65,000
Total tariffs expected in 2025: more than $400,000
Employees: 20
Supply chain: Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and China
Christian Reed, founder and CEO of Reekon Tools, on a job site holding the T1R Hybrid Laser Tape Measure
Handout
Research and development is critical for Christian Reed’s tool startup Reekon. He said the company had to cut back R&D spending by 20% because of tariffs.
“This certainly put a thorn in the side of our hiring plan for the rest of the year around engineers for R&D activities,” said Reed. “That’s something that will continue to have to either be paused or completely canceled if nothing changes.”
The hundreds of thousands of dollars Reed planned to use to hire between three and five designers and engineers is now going to tariffs instead, he said. The company, which makes innovative products like digital tape measures for tradespeople, needs to ensure every tool it produces is effective and able to withstand tough conditions on worksites.
“There’s a unique combination of making a product that you can feed up, throw on the concrete, you know, slam around and not break, and at the same time add this digital aspect,” said Reed. “So that puts a very high burden on the testing, the research we have to do … it’s a very costly product as most of the products we’re making are new to [the] world.”
Reed said he’s avoided raising prices on most items, choosing to take the hit to profit margins, but recently increased the price of a new tool – a smaller version of its digital tape measure. Initially, Reekon wanted to price it at $99 and while the margins would’ve been slim, the company expected to be able to make it up in volume, Reed said. However, after tariff rates rose, the company priced it at $119 when it launched in September to help it offset losses in other parts of the business. While the product has been well received, sales so far have fallen short of the company’s projections.
Go Digit General Insurance on Saturday said it has received a demand notice of about Rs 170 crore for short payment of goods and services tax (GST) for nearly five years. The company has received an order copy from the Office of the Commissioner of GST & Central Excise, Chennai South Commissionerate on March 6, confirming GST demand of Rs 154.80 crore levying penalty of Rs 15.48 crore and Interest u/s 50 of CGST Act, 2017 for the period July 2017 to March 2022, the insurer said in a regulatory filing. The company is in the process of evaluating the legal advice on the implications and would file an appeal, it said.
Business
India–US trade ties: Piyush Goyal says India secured best deal among competing nations – The Times of India
Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday said India has secured the best trade deal with the United States among competing nations, highlighting the strength of the economic and strategic partnership between the two countries, reported PTI.Speaking at the Raisina Dialogue 2026 in New Delhi, Goyal said India and the US share a “very powerful” relationship, adding that the world’s largest economy remains an important partner for New Delhi.
“It has been a fantastic journey. We have the best of relations. You would have observed that through the last year, President Donald Trump has always had the best things to say about India as a country, and about Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi. We have fantastic relations with our counterparts there.“Even within your family, sometimes you can have one or two misunderstandings. It’s a part of the course. I think it’s a very, very powerful relationship that the US and India share. And we got the best deal amongst all the nations with whom we compete,” Goyal said.He added that the two countries are strategic partners and the largest democracies in the world, noting that the US, with a $30 trillion economy, remains central to global trade.“We have a large responsibility cast on both our nations. They are the world’s largest economy, USD 30 trillion economy, nobody can wish them away,” he said.Explaining the significance of trade agreements, Goyal said such deals are meant to secure preferential access for a country’s goods and services compared to competitors.“What’s a trade deal? You are trying to get a preference or a preferential access for yourself, your goods, your services, compared to your competitor. And we got the best deal amongst all the competing nations. I mean whether it’s in our neighbourhood Pakistan or Bangladesh. If we look at the Asian region, we got the best deal amongst all of the competitors…” he said.The minister added that the India-US partnership extends beyond trade, encompassing technology cooperation, critical minerals, defence ties and investments.“There’s a huge technology overlay on it. There’s a huge critical minerals partnership, there’s a defense partnership, there’s a huge amount of investments that flow into India from the US. So it’s a partnership of two countries which is going to define the future,” he said.His remarks come as India and the US have finalised the framework for the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement, under which Washington had announced it would reduce reciprocal tariffs on India to 18 per cent.However, after the US Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, President Donald Trump imposed a 10 per cent tariff on all countries from February 24 for 150 days.A meeting between the chief negotiators of the two countries to finalise the legal text of the agreement has also been postponed.Under the proposed deal, India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a range of American agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, soybean oil, wine and spirits, among others.India has also indicated that it plans to purchase $500 billion worth of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products and coking coal over the next five years.Goyal also referred to the nine free trade agreements finalised by the Modi government, saying they were negotiated while safeguarding domestic interests.“These nine free trade agreements, I can say on record with all the courage that I have on my command with all the responsibility that in not a single trade deal, has India compromised on any sensitivity of any of our stakeholders,” he said.Opposition parties, however, have alleged that the government has compromised the interests of farmers in the India-US trade pact.Goyal said opening the auto sector under certain FTAs would expand consumer choice and create employment opportunities.“Demand for this industry is growing at an average of 8 per cent. So you can imagine how much more scope we have to create jobs,” he said.He added that while companies from FTA partner countries may initially export cars to test the Indian market, they would eventually need to manufacture locally once demand is established.“Initially they can sell, say, 5,000 cars or 10,000 cars, to test the market, find the distraction — and then come and manufacture here,” he said.He added that the government’s broader objective is to build a global network of trade partnerships through multiple FTAs.
A few years ago, Grace Guo began to crave places in New York City where hanging out with friends didn’t have to involve alcohol.
Newly sober and surrounded by friends who also chose not to drink, Guo said she wanted alternatives to the typical social scene. After some research, she landed on Bathhouse and Othership: social wellness clubs designed to create communities around improving health.
“Honestly, it kind of just feels like going to a spa together and spending an afternoon together. I think for me, it just feels much better rather than staying out late at night,” Guo told CNBC.
She’s one of a growing number of people seeking out membership clubs and other places that are structured around maintaining health while also acting as a spot to foster connection.
And those spaces are becoming booming businesses, too. Bathhouse, which opened in 2019 in Brooklyn, New York, told CNBC exclusively that it expects to hit around $120 million in revenue by the end of this year. It declined to disclose any of its other financials, as did Othership.
Many of these types of companies are privately held, but publicly traded gym chain Life Time also began doubling down on premium wellness a few years ago. While investors initially did not like that reallocation of resources, it’s now paying off, with Life Time’s stock more than doubling since October 2023.
Companies old and new are trying to reach consumers like Guo. The 31-year-old said she’s seen an increased focus on health, wellness and peacefulness in her own social life and in those around her, as she searches for so-called third spaces with that focus.
“I’m kind of like, where can I go to try to plug into a community, or where can I go to express a particular interest that I have and find like-minded people?” Guo said. “It’s finding a group of like-minded people, but then also having the space and the novelty to try something or to pursue something.”
At Othership, between spending time in the sauna and the cold plunge and choosing a popular evening time slot, Guo said the environment of health-focused socializing spoke to her.
“Having a space to go to where it kind of shocks us out of our routine and complacency is really important, and I think probably the biggest thing is just the fact that it overcomes a lot of the inertia of doing something,” Guo said.
‘Loneliness is an epidemic’
Bathhouse pools
Source: Bathhouse
The concept of third spaces isn’t new. The term was first coined by sociologist Ray Oldenburg in his 1989 book, “The Great Good Place,” to refer to spaces outside of the home, or the first place, and work, the second place, where people gather and form relationships.
That definition came to encompass places like neighborhood coffee shops, libraries, bars and more, where people from different backgrounds came together in an informal setting with relatively low barriers to access.
But somewhere in the past few years, that definition has evolved, and the importance of third spaces has blossomed.
Richard Kyte, a professor at Viterbo University in Wisconsin and the author of “Finding Your Third Place,” said he’s been teaching courses on third places for nearly two decades, but only noticed the term becoming mainstream in the past few years.
That turning point, Kyte said, also coincided with the pandemic, which sent the world into lockdowns and practically eliminated social gatherings for a period while redefining them for the long term.
“During that time, all of a sudden, we were talking more about the cost of loneliness, the cost of social isolation. It really came home to us during the pandemic that this was not healthy,” Kyte told CNBC. “And at the same time that we were noticing that we need these places more, we were seeing that so many of them were closing. That kind of spurred a renewed interest.”
It’s a trend that’s also been compounded by an increasingly digital-forward society, he added, as younger generations crave more than just social media connections even with the rise of artificial intelligence and chatbots.
“We’ve got all of this huge investment in technology that increases the ease and desirability of being independent,” Kyte said, citing AI companies promoting products that pose as friends. “When we have people turning more to their screens instead of looking to find fulfillment through social interaction, it just takes all these people out of the pool.”
According to Cigna’s 2025 “Loneliness in America” report, 67% of Gen Zers reported feeling lonely, along with 65% of millennials. A 2024 Harvard survey found that 67% of adults feel social and emotional loneliness because they are not part of meaningful groups.
Harry Taylor first founded Othership alongside his wife and friends to create a space that incorporated the wellness trend while combating that isolation.
“We understand that there’s a huge market for people to meet other people. Loneliness is an epidemic right now,” Taylor told CNBC. “We realized, just through doing this, it has the capacity for people to come together and just be themselves, be vulnerable.”
What’s old is new
Third spaces have evolved to encompass specific purposes, justifying the price tag that often comes with them, since some membership clubs can thousands of dollars per month.
Wellness, specifically, has seen a recent boom, becoming one of the top categories for gifting items last holiday season. Equinox chairman Harvey Spevak told CNBC last month that “health is the new luxury,” with the global wellness market expected to reach nearly $10 trillion by 2030, according to estimates from the Global Wellness Institute.
Bathhouse, which operates roughly 90,000 square feet of facilities in New York City, offers a wellness experience based on the bathhouse legacy of Europe. The space has saunas and cold plunges, both guided and unguided, starting at $40 for a drop-in session. The company’s two New York locations see roughly 1,000 customers each day.
“It was really apparent that there was no bathhouse-like concept that was really oriented towards a modern consumer, especially not in America,” co-founder Travis Talmadge told CNBC.
Talmadge said he and his co-founder were focused on creating a human experience, tapping into each person’s body while also building community around the shared activities.
“Our spaces are really large scale, so one of the nice things is that everybody kind of feels like a background actor on set, where there’s just so many people moving around,” Talmadge said. “You can have this really personal time, either by yourself or with somebody else, but then you’re in this environment with a lot of people doing the same thing.”
Talmadge said the company has seen a “surplus of demand” and runs at a “very healthy margin,” with plans to open seven more locations through 2027.
It’s just one of many wellness spaces growing in popularity.
Othership is also tapping into a wellness mindset, incorporating practices from various cultures to address the “physical, mental emotional and spiritual.” It has locations in New York and Canada, with plans for more growth.
At Othership, members can choose between three options: a free-flow session, designed to allow members to use the space however they want; classes, which alternate between saunas and cold plunges with group-led activities; and socials, imitating clubs without the alcohol in an effort to be present.
Co-founder Taylor said through Othership, he’s seen customers form new friend groups, propose to their partners in the sauna and find belonging with others while also fueling their own health.
Creating alcohol-free spaces was one of the Othership founders’ aims when creating the vision. Othership now hosts comedians, live musicians and more at its saunas to mimic similar spaces seen in big cities that are often associated with alcohol.
“There’s so much social media, which gives us the false perception that there’s social engagement and interaction, but so many of us have experienced when we’re doomscrolling, it almost even does the opposite,” Taylor said. “There’s a void in the wake of that social satiation that we all require as humans, so it’s that coming together and just being so real with one another that really creates a deep sense of belonging.”
Building community
Glo30 skincare studio.
Courtesy: Arleen Lamba
Wellness communities can form in other ways, too. Glo30, a membership studio founded 13 years ago with locations across the country, offers personalized skincare treatments for members every 30 days, creating a schedule aligned with other members to foster community.
“Community building is a lot about not just getting the results and [feeling] good, but also being able to have a commonality on their experiences and share what they feel,” Glo30’s founder and CEO Arleen Lamba told CNBC.
While urban cities like New York and Los Angeles have seen a boom in wellness clubs, Lamba said her more than 100 locations represent the in-between, in places like Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and more.
Every Glo30 appointment is scheduled on the hour in each location to create more opportunities for social connection, Lamba said.
“As people come into the studio, people are also leaving the studio, and we recognize that they recognize each other, they would actually make new friends,” she said, adding that especially post-pandemic, the company has seen a growing number of social groups form in the treatment rooms.
Lamba said she’s seen the craving for social connection increase with the rise of social media, but that creating community can often happen in untraditional places, like Glo30. At the same time, that social interaction isn’t as “overwhelming” as other places like parties or big group events, allowing for intimate socializing, she said.
In the past two years, Lamba said the number of Glo30’s franchise units in development has grown 67.5% as it sees more demand for its services.
The boom of third spaces goes beyond wellness, too. Exclusive restaurant memberships, gyms, creative spaces, social clubs and more are gaining more popularity as consumers search for ways to build community outside of their houses and offices.
At Glo30, Lamba said she’s seen every type of customer base at the company’s locations, from families to girl groups to couples.
“The third space is interesting because it creates a true connection,” she said. “We get to be witness to someone’s life — their highs, their lows, their middles — and we are the constant, and that, to me, is what the third space is about: No matter what kind of day you had out there, good or bad or medium, this space belongs to you. And when you come to this space, people will know you, see you, appreciate you and be glad you’re there.”
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