Business
Softening Crude Prices To Keep India Inflation Decisively Below 3.4% In FY27: SBI
New Delhi: Crude oil prices are projected to soften significantly to touch around USD 50 per barrel (bbl) by June 2026, positively affecting the CPI inflation, keeping it decisively below 3.4 per cent in the next fiscal (FY27), an SBI Research report said on Monday.
Benign energy prices will impact the GDP outlook favourably, and the expected impact on annual GDP growth is around 10-15 bps, according to the report authored by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India (SBI).
The US Energy Information Administration estimates that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of USD 55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, largely driven by the buildup of inventory.
Since the India basket has a correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, the trends in Brent suggest further softening of the Indian basket.
A moving average analysis for Indian crude shows that current prices are trending “below the 50 and 200 period moving averages”, suggesting future lower levels from the current level at USD 62.20 per bbl.
“An autoregressive quantile forecast for the Indian basket indicates that the 50th percentile forecast by March 2026 is USD 53.31 and USD 51.85 by June 2026,” Dr Ghosh added.
The expected fall in Indian basket price to USD 53.31 per barrel due to the dynamic daily pricing mechanism will be transmitted to fuel station prices.
Based on the historical average correlation between prices observed in four metro cities, at 0.48, the fuel component of the CPI basket may see further moderation.
“The expected 14 per cent correction in India Basket in Q4 FY26 is expected to put downward pressure of 22 bps on CPI basket, assuming 48 per cent passthrough. This could average CPI inflation for FY27 decisively below 3.4 per cent,” the SBI report forecast.
Analysis using recent history suggests that assuming the USD/INR base price is Rs 90.28, the 14 per cent expected correction may result in 3 per cent appreciation in the rupee, which is approximately Rs 87.5 per dollar, and a part of this could play out in Q4 FY26, the report projected.
A Guernsey mum is calling for cheaper and a greater choice of gluten-free foods for her family.
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Business
Asian stocks today: Markets trade in green after US SC’s blow to Trump’s tariffs; HSI jumps over 2% – The Times of India
Asian markets inched higher on Monday after the US Supreme Court invalidated a major part of President Donald Trump’s tariff framework, a policy that had shaken the global economy since last year. Hong Kong’s HSI climbed more than 2% or 579 points reaching 26,992 with ecommerce heavyweights Alibaba and JD.com each jumping over three percent. Seoul also scaled a fresh record high to 5,816, buoyed by strong gains in chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.Markets in Singapore, Wellington, Taipei and Manila also ended in positive territory, while Sydney slipped. Meanwhile, trading in Tokyo and Shanghai was shut due to holidays.The gains across the region were driven primarily by technology stocks. These companies have powered much of Asia’s market strength this year as investors increasingly shift funds away from Wall Street in search of relatively cheaper valuations. Trump’s trade strategy suffered a significant legal setback on Friday when the nation’s highest court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the White House relied on in April to introduce broad tariffs, “does not authorise the president to impose tariffs”. In response, the president pledged to introduce a fresh global tariff of 10% using another legal route, which by Saturday, he had increased to 15%. The latest developments have injected a new layer of uncertainty into the trade outlook. There are now also demands for authorities to return funds collected under the earlier tariff scheme, while analysts caution that the administration could still look for alternative mechanisms to enforce duties.The court’s decision has also affected the outlook for trade agreements negotiated by Washington. Even so, investors in Asia largely welcomed the ruling, which is widely viewed as supportive for China and India. Technology counters emerged as the biggest winners.In currency markets, the dollar came under pressure, falling sharply against the yen, pound and euro. Meanwhile, oil prices declined by more than one percent on optimism surrounding a potential Iran nuclear deal.
More Indians in small towns are now shopping for affordable brands instead of unlabelled goods in the bazaars.
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