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Softening Crude Prices To Keep India Inflation Decisively Below 3.4% In FY27: SBI

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Softening Crude Prices To Keep India Inflation Decisively Below 3.4% In FY27: SBI


New Delhi: Crude oil prices are projected to soften significantly to touch around USD 50 per barrel (bbl) by June 2026, positively affecting the CPI inflation, keeping it decisively below 3.4 per cent in the next fiscal (FY27), an SBI Research report said on Monday. 

Benign energy prices will impact the GDP outlook favourably, and the expected impact on annual GDP growth is around 10-15 bps, according to the report authored by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India (SBI).

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of USD 55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, largely driven by the buildup of inventory.

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Since the India basket has a correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, the trends in Brent suggest further softening of the Indian basket.

A moving average analysis for Indian crude shows that current prices are trending “below the 50 and 200 period moving averages”, suggesting future lower levels from the current level at USD 62.20 per bbl.

“An autoregressive quantile forecast for the Indian basket indicates that the 50th percentile forecast by March 2026 is USD 53.31 and USD 51.85 by June 2026,” Dr Ghosh added.

The expected fall in Indian basket price to USD 53.31 per barrel due to the dynamic daily pricing mechanism will be transmitted to fuel station prices.

Based on the historical average correlation between prices observed in four metro cities, at 0.48, the fuel component of the CPI basket may see further moderation.

“The expected 14 per cent correction in India Basket in Q4 FY26 is expected to put downward pressure of 22 bps on CPI basket, assuming 48 per cent passthrough. This could average CPI inflation for FY27 decisively below 3.4 per cent,” the SBI report forecast.

Analysis using recent history suggests that assuming the USD/INR base price is Rs 90.28, the 14 per cent expected correction may result in 3 per cent appreciation in the rupee, which is approximately Rs 87.5 per dollar, and a part of this could play out in Q4 FY26, the report projected.



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Bajaj deal with Allianz values insurance arms at Rs 93000 crore – The Times of India

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Bajaj deal with Allianz values insurance arms at Rs 93000 crore – The Times of India


MUMBAI: Bajaj Group on Thursday completed the acquisition of a 23% stake in its insurance joint ventures from Allianz SE for Rs 21,390 crore, marking the largest transaction in India’s insurance sector and bringing the group closer to full ownership of Bajaj General Insurance and Bajaj Life Insurance.The stake purchase involved Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Holdings & Investment and Jamnalal Sons acquiring Allianz’s shares for Rs 12,190 crore in the general insurance arm and Rs 9,200 crore in the life insurance arm. The transaction raises the Bajaj Group’s ownership in both insurers to 97% from 74%, with Bajaj Finserv holding 75.01%, giving it management control.Bajaj’s purchase values the general insurance venture at Rs 53000 crore and the life jv at Rs 40,000 crore. This is much lower than what analyst reports from Jefferies, Avendus and Kotak which have valued the non-life company between Rs 85700 crore and Rs 54600 crore while the life company has been valued between Rs 56,800 crore and 56,200 crore.Allianz said it received a gross consideration of around 2.1 billion euros for the divestment of the first major tranche and expects to sell the remaining 3% stake by the second quarter of 2026. The German insurer said the decision followed constructive and amicable discussions, noting that its ability to operate in India had remained limited due to its minority position.“This transaction is transformative for the Bajaj Group, enabling us to contribute even more strongly to the Govt’s vision of ‘Insurance for All’ that is Made in India, Made for India and Made by India,” Sanjiv Bajaj, chairman and managing director of Bajaj Finserv, said. He said the acquisition provides strategic flexibility to expand markets, launch new products and build scale as insurance penetration is set to rise over the next two decades.Bajaj Finserv said the transfer of Allianz’s remaining 3% stake is expected to be completed over the next few months through a proposed buyback, subject to approvals. If completed, Bajaj Finserv’s stake could rise to around 77.3%.Allianz said India remains a market of high strategic priority and that it intends to stay invested in the country’s insurance growth. The company pointed to its recently announced plans with Jio Financial Services to form a 50:50 domestic reinsurance joint venture and explore new general and life insurance ventures.Allianz said it expects to recognise a non-operating IFRS gain of around 1.1 billion euros from the transaction in its first-quarter 2026 results and anticipates a positive impact of around five percentage points on its group solvency ratio, with proceeds to be redeployed in line with its strategic priorities, including investments in new India ventures.



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Gas market push: NSE in talks with IGX to launch Indian natural gas futures; aim to deepen price discovery and hedging – The Times of India

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Gas market push: NSE in talks with IGX to launch Indian natural gas futures; aim to deepen price discovery and hedging – The Times of India


The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is in discussions with the Indian Gas Exchange (IGX) to develop and launch Indian natural gas futures, an initiative aimed at strengthening the country’s natural gas market ecosystem, PTI reported.The proposed futures contract is expected to provide market participants with a transparent, efficient and robust risk management tool aligned with India’s evolving natural gas pricing framework, the exchange said.The collaboration seeks to combine NSE’s experience in the derivatives market with IGX’s role in spot natural gas trading, price discovery and physical market development. Once launched, the contract is expected to benefit gas producers, city gas distribution companies, power generators, fertiliser manufacturers, industrial consumers, traders and financial participants by enabling effective hedging against price volatility and supporting long-term planning.“The proposed collaboration with IGX marks a significant step in NSE’s efforts to deepen India’s commodity derivatives markets,” said Sriram Krishnan, Chief Business Development Officer of NSE.According to him, natural gas is emerging as a critical transition fuel in India’s energy mix, and a domestic futures contract would enhance price transparency, strengthen risk management capabilities and help build a credible gas price benchmark aligned with Indian market fundamentals.“By leveraging NSE’s market infrastructure and IGX’s physical market expertise, we aim to create a futures product that is relevant, liquid and trusted by the entire gas value chain,” Krishnan added.Subject to regulatory approvals, NSE and IGX will work with stakeholders to ensure a smooth launch of the proposed derivatives contract. Further details on contract design and timelines will be announced in due course, the exchange said.



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Workers’ rights reforms will cost billions less after concessions, analysis shows

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Workers’ rights reforms will cost billions less after concessions, analysis shows


Archie MitchellBusiness reporter

Getty Images A worker at a warehouse packages items as they pass him on a conveyor belt.Getty Images

A series of concessions on Labour’s flagship workers’ rights reforms will cut the cost to firms adopting them by billions of pounds, a government impact assessment shows.

An initial analysis by officials found that implementing the party’s measures to bolster workers’ rights would cost firms up to £5bn a year.

However, an updated analysis on Wednesday, which took into account major concessions made by ministers, said it will now cost companies £1bn a year.

The concessions were welcomed by business groups, but faced fierce criticism from some left-wing Labour MPs and union leaders.

The Employment Rights Act will give workers access to sick pay and paternity leave from the first day on the job and introduce new protections for pregnant women and new mothers.

In November, Labour dropped plans to give all workers the right to claim unfair dismissal from their first day in a job. Instead, it will bring in enhanced protections after six months in employment, the bill’s most significant measure.

Alongside concessions on unfair dismissal, the government will phase in the overall package over several years, with many of the measures still subject to consultation and secondary legislation.

The revised impact assessment also said the lower cost estimate reflected “clearer implementation timelines” and more available evidence about the policies.

But the British Chambers of Commerce said the £1bn figure “is likely to be a massive underestimate”.

Policy director Kate Shoesmith said: “The impact figure doesn’t adequately account for the harder to quantify costs. Those include staff time for understanding and implementing new processes or explaining these to colleagues.

“Concessions such as introducing the six-month qualifying period will reduce costs – but not on the scale this latest assessment suggests.”

The shadow business and trade secretary, Andrew Griffith, said: “The government spent a whole year denying it, but even after they fudged the figures to favour them, the truth is clear: their Unemployment Act will cost businesses billions.

“They have also been forced to admit it will cost young and vulnerable people their jobs – just as we always warned.”

The latest impact assessment also said the Employment Rights Act would have a small positive impact on employment, boosting the amount of people in work by 0.1%.

It also said the new measures could have a “small, positive direct impact on economic growth”.

Meanwhile, stronger workers’ rights could benefit about 18 million workers, up from an earlier estimate of around 15 million, the analysis showed.

Trade unions welcomed the latest impact assessment, saying it would bring “significant benefits to UK workers, our economy and wider society”.

The Trades Union Congress (TUC) said stronger rights at work are “good for workers and employers – driving up labour market participation, improving health, raising productivity and boosting demand”.

Its general secretary Paul Nowak called for ministers to “finish the job as soon as possible”, warning that secondary legislation to bring in the measures must be “watertight”.

Mike Clancy, general secretary of the Prospect trade union, said: “This impact assessment is clear that the Employment Rights Act is good for workers, good for growth, and good for wider society.

“The sensible compromises agreed between Government, businesses, and trade unions were intended to make this legislation more workable for all parties, while still delivering robust protections for workers, and this report clearly demonstrates the success of that approach.”

The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) said the Employment Rights Act will “transform the world of work, delivering stronger protections and higher living standards”.

A spokesperson said: “By making work pay, and more secure, this new analysis demonstrates how it will boost productivity, cut staff turnover, and put more money in the pockets of working people.”



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