Gold price prediction today: Gold and silver prices are poised for a long-term bull run, though there may be short term volatility due to global factors, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He shares his views and recommendations for gold and silver investors:Gold continued to shine bright at the start of the current week, climbing past $3,800 per oz for the first time ever in Spot markets. The Yellow metal printed yet another all-time high near $3,871 in Spot on Tuesday after spending much of last week consolidating just below the previous all-time high near $3,791. This was due to positive momentum which returned following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. While the data came in broadly as expected, bets remain elevated that the US Fed might continue easing its rates in the upcoming meeting in October favoring sentiments in Gold & Silver.Meanwhile in the current week the US faces the risk of a government shutdown effective 1st October unless Congress agrees on new funding legislation. Republican leaders in the House pushed a stopgap bill to extend funding through November 21, but Senate Democrats have refused to back it without policy concessions. The dollar had suffered from rising risk of a US government shutdown and falling oil prices since the weekend, with safe haven currencies like yen emerging as the top performer. President Trump had already stated that a shutdown is now likely after little progress on congressional negotiations. In case of a shutdown, a lower Yen may well remain the favourite trade as history shows it lost 1.5% during the 2018-19 shutdown.Finally, focus also remains on US data due later in the week, with the closely monitored JOLTS report due on Tuesday followed by Payrolls on Friday. An upside surprise in US payrolls may bring in volatility in prices, but data might also be delayed due to the risk of shutdown. An extended shutdown may also result in profit booking moves in global equities leading to risk of a near term correction in prices especially in Silver complex.

Gold Price Outlook:

Weekly View: Volatile week ahead for precious metalsBrace for high volatility in bullion prices especially in silver, on a weekly basis as markets witness a data heavy week along with US shutdown risk to persist in the current week. The department of labor had said that the release of economic data, including Non farm payrolls would be suspended if a US shutdown takes place, which could again bring back safe haven appeal in gold on medium term basis.Any major corrective move in global equities in case of US shutdown in near term, needs to be watched out which could limit upside especially in silver prices. This is due the fact that silver had already witnessed a run up of up to 50 % in prices since 21st of April, the day where Gold hit an all time peak, while gold prices are up only 12 – 13 % since then.Again Gold/Silver ratio which has declined to almost 80 levels on Friday (in International Spot markets) from a high of 107 hit on 21st April is now poised to bounce back in near term to 84 – 85 levels indicating Silver may witness more downside moves as compared to Gold in near term.However from a medium to long term perspective, Gold is still poised to continue its bull run as it may test a level $ 3,950 – 4,000 per oz in spot markets by the end of 2025 or by the start of next year. Long term bias in Silver prices also remains positive as a breach of all-time highs in International markets (hit in Apr 2011 around $ 49.60) could be witnessed by the start of next year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Last Updated:October 01, 2025, 08:05 IST

The outcome—including the MPC’s decision on the repo rate and other key policy measures—will be announced at a press conference on October 1.

RBI MPC Meeting October 2025 Live Updates: RBI Repo Rate Cut, Loan Interest and monetary policy committee latest news

RBI MPC October Outcome Today: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that Governor Sanjay Malhotra will reveal the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) October meeting at 10 am on Wednesday. The announcement will be streamed live on the RBI’s YouTube channel, official website, and X account.

A press conference at noon will follow on the same platforms to provide deeper insights into the central bank’s policy decisions. News18 will also share live updates through its blog on the MPC policy meeting.

The October MPC meeting was held from September 29 to October 1. The remaining MPC meetings for the 2025-26 financial year are scheduled for December 3-5, 2025, and February 4-6, 2026.

Where To watch Sunjay Malhotra’s Address LIVE

Viewers can tune in live at 10 a.m. on Wednesday to catch RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s announcement of the MPC’s October policy outcome. The address will be streamed on the RBI’s official YouTube channel.

It can also be viewed on the central bank’s website and its official X account. These platforms will provide direct and uninterrupted access to the event, ensuring that viewers can follow the announcement in real time.

RBI MPC Meeting Expectations

Economists broadly expect the MPC to maintain the status quo on policy rates, which would mark the second consecutive pause. Between February and June 2025, the RBI had lowered the repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points (bps) to 5.5%, where it currently stands.

“The Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to maintain the status quo on the repo rate in its October 2025 review. This view is supported by the positive impact of GST reforms on demand, stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 GDP growth, and an inflation trajectory that, while lowered due to GST rationalisation (FY26 average now ~2.6%), is expected to slope upwards thereafter,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd.

India’s GDP growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1 FY26, compared with 6.5% in the same period last year and 7.4% in Q4 FY25.

The government recently rolled out a two-slab GST structure of 5% and 18% (effective September 22) by abolishing the previous four-rate regime—an overhaul expected to further boost consumption.

“RBI is likely to remain on pause in October, awaiting clarity on GST impact and tariffs,” said Gaura Sengupta, Chief Economist at IDFC FIRST Bank. She added that the RBI’s growth outlook remains positive due to stronger rural demand and sustained government capex, even as urban consumption and private capex remain muted.

However, some experts see scope for a rate cut.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at State Bank of India (SBI), said there is a “merit and rationale in going for a rate cut,” but stressed that it would require calibrated communication given the higher threshold for cuts post-June.

“No point in committing a Type 2 error (no rate cut with neutral stance) in September also… A 25-bps rate cut in September is the best possible option for RBI,” he noted in a recent report, adding that it would signal the RBI’s forward-looking stance.

Economists at Nomura expect two additional cuts in the October and December meetings. “As the market is currently only pricing in around 10 bps of cuts over the next few months, we see the risk/reward as attractive,” Nomura said in a report.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects inflation to remain benign on account of softer food prices and the pass-through effects of lower GST rates. Headline inflation rose to 2.7% in August from an eight-year low of 1.61% in July. “Assuming a partial pass-through of lower GST rates, we recently lowered our headline inflation forecasts for CY25 and FY26 by 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 2.8% YoY,” Goldman Sachs said.

External Factors

The MPC meeting coincides with ongoing India-US trade negotiations following US President Donald Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on Indian goods by an additional 25% (effective August 27), bringing the total to 50%. The outcome of these talks could significantly influence India’s growth outlook.

The meeting also follows the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025, lowering its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4–4.25%.

Previous MPC Decisions

• February 2025: Repo rate cut by 25 bps
• April 2025: Repo rate cut by 25 bps to 6%
• June 2025: A 50-bps jumbo cut lowered the repo rate to 5.5%
• August 2025: Repo rate held steady at 5.5% with a neutral stance

The October decision is being closely watched for signs of further easing or continued pause as India navigates evolving global and domestic challenges.

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More

Read More