The Indian rupee is set to face sharp and persistent volatility through 2026 as capital outflows, tariff-related trade disruptions and weak foreign investment flows continue to outweigh the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, analysts and official data indicate, PTI reported.Despite steady growth and moderate inflation at home, the currency is unlikely to find a durable floor until uncertainty around tariffs eases, with market participants cautioning that a trade agreement with the US, while helpful, may not be sufficient on its own to stabilise the rupee.The rupee has weakened nearly 5% since crossing the 85-per-dollar level in January and has slipped past the historic low of 91 against the US dollar. Over the year, it has depreciated more than 19% against the euro, about 14% versus the British pound and over 5% against the Japanese yen, making it the worst-performing currency among Asian peers even as the dollar index fell over 10% and global crude oil prices remained weak.The slide accelerated after sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump in April triggered sustained foreign portfolio outflows, as global investors shifted capital to other emerging markets offering better risk-adjusted returns.The pressure is evident in investment flows. On a net basis, foreign direct investment between January and October this year turned negative, while total investment inflows declined to minus $0.010 billion during the period, compared with inflows of $23 billion in the year-ago period. Net FDI stood at $6.567 billion, while net portfolio investment remained negative at minus $6.575 billion.“FDI acts as the anchor flow for the balance of payments. When that anchor weakens, the currency becomes more dependent on portfolio flows; forex markets turn more sensitive to global risk sentiment; and central bank intervention requirements increase,” said Anindya Banerjee, head of currency and commodity research at Kotak Securities, PTI quoted.The rupee’s fall gathered pace in the last quarter of the year. It dropped more than 1% in a single session on November 21 to 89.66 per dollar, breached the 90 level on December 2 and crossed the 91 mark on December 16.The government has attributed the depreciation to a widening trade deficit and delays in finalising a trade pact with the US amid weak support from the capital account. Minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary told the Rajya Sabha on December 16 that the rupee’s slide had been influenced by the increase in the trade gap and developments related to the India-US trade agreement.RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra has said the central bank does not target any specific exchange rate level, while analysts note that recent rate cuts aimed at supporting domestic growth have reduced the rupee’s relative attractiveness.Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities, described the situation as a capital account-driven crisis, noting that shrinking inflows, rather than trade alone, are driving the decline. The RBI has also shifted towards a more flexible exchange rate regime, which the IMF classifies as a “crawl-like” arrangement.The depletion in net foreign investment inflows has further amplified volatility. “A sharp decline in FDI has reduced long-term dollar inflows, making the rupee more dependent on volatile portfolio flows,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst, commodity and currency, LKP Securities, PTI quoted.“Higher commodity prices and elevated risk on US trade deals kept FDI away and impacted the rupee majority due to lack of intent in inflows and going elsewhere, which are our competitors,” Trivedi added.RBI data also shows a depletion of $10.9 billion in foreign exchange reserves during July–September FY26, compared with an accretion of $18.6 billion in the same period a year earlier. The record $17.5-billion exit by foreign institutional investors in 2025 has added to dollar demand, intensifying pressure on the rupee.Analysts expect the current account deficit to widen to around 2% or more in 2026 as the full impact of US penalty tariffs feeds into exports, increasing structural demand for dollars. “A trade pact with the US would help, but it is not a silver bullet,” Banerjee said.Despite near-term stress, analysts say India’s growth trajectory and inflation profile provide a long-term anchor for the currency. Banerjee expects the rupee to test the 92–93 levels amid global volatility over the next three to four months, before potentially entering a phase of appreciation from April as capital flows realign and dollar weakness becomes more evident, with levels of 83–84 seen by the end of FY27.

A bottled water sold at Waitrose could contain glass and should be returned to the store, the Food Standards Agency (FSA) warned.

The 750ml No1 Royal Deeside Mineral Water and the sparkling variety are being recalled “because of the possible presence of glass fragments upon opening the bottles,” which the FSA said “may cause injury and makes it unsafe to drink”.

Waitrose apologised and said it was recalling “some” bottles as a precaution.

The supermarket is asking customers not to use the bottles and to take them back to Waitrose or contact the company for a full refund.

“If you have bought any of the above products do not drink it,” the FSA said in its recall notice.

It added that the supermarket would be putting up notices in its shops warning customers.

Deeside water is produced in Scotland from natural springs in the Cairngorms national park.

The firm produces special batches for Waitrose, which are affected by the recall. Each bottle costs around £1.60p at Waitrose stores.

It is not clear exactly how many bottles have been sold and what proportion of bottles are affected.

The batch codes for the recalled mineral water are: NOV 2027 28, DEC 2027 01, DEC 2027 02, DEC 2027 10, DEC 2027 11 and DEC 2027 16, with best before dates of November and December 2027.

The batch codes for the recalled sparkling water are: DEC 2027 01, DEC 2027 03, DEC 2027 12, DEC 2027 15 and DEC 2027 25, with a best before date of December 2027.

The FSA advised people contact Waitrose Customer Care on 0800 188 884, choosing option 4.

Last Updated:December 31, 2025, 20:02 IST

PPF, NSC, SSY, KVP, Post Office Deposits: Check latest interest rates on small savings schemes for the period between January 1 to March 31 this year.

Small savings schemes rate update.

PPF, Post Office FD, SSY, NSC Interest Rates: The government on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, announced that the interest rates on small savings schemes, including PPF, SSY, NSC, and post office deposits, will remain unchanged for the fourth quarter of FY 2025-26 (from January 1, 2026, to March 31, 2026), according to a finance ministry notification.

“The rates of interest on various small savings schemes for the fourth quarter of FY2025-26 starting from January 1, 2026, and ending on March 31st, 2026, shall remain unchanged from those notified for the third quarter (October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025) of FY 2025-26″, the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, said in an official notification on December 31, 2025.

Latest Interest Rates On Small Savings Schemes

Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme Deposits: under the Sukanya Samriddhi scheme will continue to attract an interest rate of 8.2%.

Three-Year Term Post Office Deposit: The interest rate on a three-year term deposit remains at 7.1%.

Public Provident Fund (PPF) and Post Office Savings Deposit: The interest rates for Public Provident Fund (PPF) and post office savings deposit schemes will remain unchanged at 7.1% and 4%, respectively.

Kisan Vikas Patra: The interest rate on the Kisan Vikas Patra will be 7.5%, with investments maturing in 115 months.

National Savings Certificate (NSC): The National Savings Certificate (NSC) will attract an interest rate of 7.7% for the April-June 2025 period.

Monthly Income Scheme: The Monthly Income Scheme will earn an interest rate of 7.4% for investors.

The government last revised some schemes’ rates for the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Interest rates on small savings schemes are notified by the government every quarter.

The central government is mandated to review and set interest rates for small savings schemes every quarter. Interest rates on post office schemes are determined based on the methodology suggested by the Shyamala Gopinath Committee.

What Are Small Savings Schemes?

Small savings schemes are government-backed deposit schemes designed to promote savings among Indian citizens, especially those with low to moderate incomes. They are considered safe investments and are offered through post offices and select banks. Popular schemes include Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC), Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY), Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS), Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (POMIS), Time Deposits and Recurring Deposits, Interest rates on these schemes are reviewed quarterly by the government and are influenced by the yield trends in the secondary market for government securities.

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