Sports
The race for No. 1 draft pick: Five teams still in the mix, plus prospects they might consider
The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Only five teams have at least a 1% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises again after taking a look at midseason.
Our NFL Nation reporters looked at what went wrong for each team to get them in this position. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each teams’ chances in their final three games. Dan Graziano rated each team’s likelihood of trading the No. 1 pick on a 1-10 scale. And finally, Jordan Reid spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it kept the top selection.
Let’s start with the Raiders, who currently have the best odds at the first pick.
Jump to a team:
CLE | LV | NYG | NYJ | TEN
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Las Vegas has been a complete mess on offense. Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line’s inability to hold protection or create space hasn’t helped either player. The Raiders are currently 22nd in pass block win rate (61.0%) and tied for 18th in run block win rate (70.6%). — Ryan McFadden
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games but don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Raiders have the No. 1 pick locked up. Their Week 17 game is against the Giants, who are fourth on this list, and Week 18 is against an already eliminated Chiefs team. Who knows what that game will look like. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. All of these grades will be based on whether the team likes the top QB prospect — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or whomever else it could become — enough to justify taking him No. 1. The Raiders desperately need a real, long-term solution at quarterback and would be foolish to let an opportunity to draft one slip past them. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. Adding Smith as a veteran presence backfired. The Raiders desperately need a franchise QB, and this year’s Heisman Trophy winner could fill that void as the top option in this class. His toughness, poise and accuracy are traits that can translate quickly. The franchise hasn’t selected a QB in Round 1 since 2007, when it took Jamarcus Russell with the top pick. — Reid
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.3%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 89.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Offense. For the second straight season, the Browns have one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for the lowest mark in yards per play (4.3) this season. The Browns are last in offensive EPA, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and have cycled through three different starting quarterbacks — Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. But the issues span beyond the QB, from an oft-injured and underperforming offensive line to a lack of playmakers on the outside. — Daniel Oyefusi
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They are most certainly not favored in any games. The Browns face the Bills, Steelers and Bengals, a high degree of difficulty stretch. FPI favors Cleveland’s opponents by at least 8.5 points in each of those matchups, though it remains to be seen what the state of the Bengals is in Week 18. Still, Browns fans hoping to see their team lose out have a good chance of that happening.— Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
4. Anyone who tells you they know what the Browns are going to do at QB next season is lying. They have two rookies (Sanders and Gabriel), Deshaun Watson still on the roster at a price of $46 million and two first-round picks in 2026. If they fall in love with Mendoza, I feel confident they’d take him here. If they aren’t in love with any QB prospect and feel good about Sanders, Gabriel and/or Watson for one more season, then they could trade it and address the problem with even more draft capital in 2027. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. I don’t think Gabriel and Sanders have shown enough this season to stop the Browns from continuing to find their long-term answer under center. This season, the Browns are 30th in passing yards per game (171.9) and last in Total QBR (24.6). Arguably the most consistent passer in this class, Mendoza has the potential to bring stability to a franchise that has lacked it since Baker Mayfield was traded in 2022. — Reid
2:18
Stephen A. blames Stefanski for not developing Browns QBs
Stephen A. Smith calls out Browns coach Kevin Stefanski for refusing to develop other quarterbacks while the team tries Shedeur Sanders at QB.
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.9%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Lack of complementary football. There have been games when the Titans’ defense played well but eventually wore down after being on the field too much because the offense couldn’t sustain drives. Tennessee is currently 28th in time of possession and second worst in total yards per game (250.5). But the offense has given the defense a chance to close out games, like in Week 11 (a 16-13 loss to Houston). It didn’t happen. — Turron Davenport
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games by FPI, but there are a couple of winnable games. The Titans are getting the Chiefs fresh off their playoff elimination and without quarterback Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Will Kansas City pack it in in a meaningless game? It wouldn’t be that shocking. And though the Saints are playing well, that’s not a sure-fire loss for Tennessee in Week 17. But Week 18 could easily be a loss if the game is meaningful for the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
9. I’d be shocked if Tennessee took a QB at No. 1 two years in a row. It has never happened. The only reason it’s not a 10 is because a new coach could decide he’s not sold on rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Though, why take the job if that’s the case? This front office, led by first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi, drafted Ward No. 1 last spring and believes in him. So trading the pick for future draft capital would make sense. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Arvell Reese, Edge/linebacker, Ohio State. In need of talent on both sides of the ball, Reese is a versatile defender who’s capable of playing edge rusher and off-ball linebacker. His combination of explosiveness, power and physicality are all qualities that give him the potential to be a building block for a defense that already has star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. — Reid
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.1%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 76.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
The entire program. The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and assistant defensive line coach Bryan Cox at different points this season. The defense has been extremely disappointing given the talent (tied for 30th in yards allowed per play), but that is just part of a bigger problem. The Giants’ leadership, culture and locker room are all sour. How else do you explain winning five of the past 31 games? — Jordan Raanan
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
FPI, which is particularly fond of the Giants this season, favors them this week against the Vikings (though Minnesota is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings). Next week, both the betting line and FPI agree the Giants should be favored against the Raiders. And our model makes the Cowboys-Giants Week 18 game a pick ’em. All of that is a big part of the reason why the Giants aren’t higher on this list. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
8. Similar to what I said about the Titans, except that the Giants could have a new coach and new GM if Joe Schoen is replaced. And if that new leadership has concerns about quarterback Jaxson Dart‘s durability and felt 100 percent convinced on a QB prospect in this class, maybe they make that move. But again, it would be a major surprise from an organization that has reason to believe in last spring’s first-round selection. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Reese. Like the Titans, the Giants have their QB in place with Dart. With edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2026, Reese could turn into an edge rusher, off-ball linebacker hybrid if Thibodeaux is not brought back. Simply taking a best player available approach, he would make a lot of sense as another key addition on a defense with plenty of young talent. — Reid
1:38
Why a full offseason could be key for Jaxson Dart’s growth
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.8%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 77.8%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Everything except special teams. The defense regressed badly under defense-minded coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Steve Wilks, resulting in Wilks’ firing after 14 games. The offense was weighed down by poor quarterback play, as the Justin Fields experiment was a resounding failure that cost them $30 million in guarantees. The Jets have some players on offense, but neither Fields, Tyrod Taylor nor Brady Cook were able to galvanize the unit. The team is currently ranked 27th in Total QBR (40.6). — Rich Cimini
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
The Jets aren’t favored at the Saints, against the Patriots and at the Bills to close out the season. The Saints are playing well enough that they probably will be able to take care of the Jets, so the big risk comes in Week 18 if the Bills have already lost the AFC East and don’t have much to play for. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. The Jets are a complete blank slate at QB moving forward. They don’t have any major cap issues connected with Fields or Aaron Rodgers anymore. They need a star at QB and would be unwise to pass up a chance to draft one with the top pick. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. With five first-round picks over the next two seasons, the Jets have the most draft capital of any of the QB-needy teams. They’d love to keep that future capital to build around Moore after the Fields signing did not work out. Moore’s poise and ball placement project well in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s system given his potential as a true distributor. — Reid
Sports
Sources: NWSL expected to vote on calendar shift this month
The NWSL’s board of governors is expected to vote later this month on whether to flip the league’s calendar to a fall-to-spring season, multiple sources told ESPN.
The NWSL season currently kicks off in March and ends in November, but a change — one that has been debated for years and previously voted down — would see the season start in late summer and end in late spring. That would align the NWSL with many of Europe’s top leagues and soon, with MLS, which will make the transition to fall-to-spring next year.
The NWSL’s board has debated changing the season footprint for at least three years, and a flip of the calendar was narrowly voted down in late 2024, ESPN previously reported. Intense debate over the topic has continued within league circles.
Another vote on the calendar could happen at the upcoming board meeting, sources said, although the agendas to such meetings change frequently, and the terms of potential proposals can be altered right up until voting begins, as they did in December with the implementation of the new High Impact Player rule.
Even if there is a vote that successfully passes a calendar change — which is not guaranteed, since support of the idea is not unanimous — it could take years to implement.
An NWSL spokesperson declined to comment on this story.
NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman said in November that “our ecosystem is on notice” about the league potentially changing its calendar.
“There are certainly opportunities that can be created with us not overlapping Major League Soccer, in that the schedule congestion for our summer calendar will be mitigated,” Berman said before the 2025 NWSL Championship. “On the other hand, there will of course be other challenges that it creates in terms of understanding and knowing stadium availability.”
Proponents of the change believe that aligning the NWSL’s calendar with Europe will improve transfer business and allow the NWSL to better operate around FIFA international windows.
Sources told ESPN that there is also a belief among some board members that there is less competition for prime TV time in late spring and that the NWSL playoffs could have a larger audience in that window. Maximizing revenue from the next media rights deal is the NWSL board’s current top priority, multiple sources have told ESPN over the past year, and Berman has spoken about the topic frequently.
Critics of a calendar change point to the NWSL’s many cold-weather markets and potential player safety issues around holding games in frigid conditions, although extreme heat is already an issue during the NWSL’s summer months. They are also concerned about how cold temperatures and potential weather delays would impact attendance, which dipped on average last year.
The NWSL’s board of governors will meet later this month. Any potential league vote is likely to result in a narrow decision in either direction, as was the case in 2024.
MLS owners voted in November to flip the calendar and mirror Europe. MLS will make the transition by playing an abbreviated “sprint season” next spring before switching to a full season for 2027-28. MLS will begin its new seasons in July, take a winter break from mid-December through early February and finish the playoffs in late May.
The NWSL could follow a similar path but on a delayed timeline.
The NWSL’s new collective bargaining agreement, which was ratified in 2024, accounted for a potential change by eliminating restrictions to preseason start dates and by adding an entire section (27.9) accounting for a schedule format change. That section requires the league to provide no less than one year’s notice to the NWSL Players Association if it intends to switch to a fall-to-spring format.
After that, the CBA calls for the league and the union to form a scheduling committee and allow for NWSLPA input, as well as bargain over necessary changes that conflict with the current CBA, “but the NWSL retains the discretion to make the format change.”
There are natural breaks in the calendar for the NWSL to attempt a transition. The 2028 Summer Olympics will be in Los Angeles (and the Olympics soccer event spread across the U.S.), and the 2031 Women’s World Cup is expected to be primarily hosted in the United States, although the formal approval of that uncontested bid has been delayed by FIFA.
Changing the calendar has the support of many sporting executives across the league because it will put NWSL contracts at the same cadence as those in Europe, where deals typically expire in the summer. That, executives have said for years, will make player transfers easier.
In ESPN’s first anonymous general manager survey in 2024, one GM said that the intense debate over the calendar was “actually the biggest question facing the league.”
Turning the summer into the offseason would also allow the NWSL to avoid one of its largest headaches: international tournaments. The league tried to play through the 2015 and 2019 Women’s World Cups despite missing swaths of star players before finally taking a five-week break for the 2023 edition.
Between the World Cup, the Olympics and continental tournaments such as the Euros, there are major international calendar conflicts three out of every four summers. (And this year, in the one down summer in that cycle, the NWSL instilled a monthlong break because of the men’s World Cup taking over many of its venues and markets.)
MLS and the NWSL currently mirror each other in operating seasons that start at the beginning of the calendar year (usually February or March) and end with playoffs that run until the end of the year. MLS and the NWSL have both kicked off their seasons early in the calendar year since their inceptions in 1996 and 2013, respectively.
The USL Super League, which is also sanctioned as a U.S. women’s first division alongside the NWSL, launched in 2024 and already plays roughly a fall-to-spring schedule, kicking off in August and concluding in May.
Sports
Wings stifle questions about Azzi Fudd-Paige Bueckers relationship
Azzi Fudd, the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft, answered numerous basketball-related questions at her Dallas Wings introductory news conference Thursday, but one unrelated to the game overshadowed all the others.
Fudd and teammate Paige Bueckers, who will team in Dallas’ backcourt this season, went public about their relationship in 2025, and it was an often-discussed subject before this week’s draft.
But when Fudd was asked Thursday about both her relationship with Bueckers — the two overlapped at UConn and won a national championship together — and whether she would seek advice from other couples in the WNBA about navigating the relationship as pro players, the subject was quickly shut down.
“Understand why you have to ask that question,” a Wings public relations staffer interrupted. “We’re going to respectfully decline from commenting on our players’ personal lives.”
Fudd averaged 17.3 points on 47% shooting in her final season at UConn, which ended with the Huskies losing to South Carolina at the Final Four — their only loss of the season.
Bueckers, who was last year’s No. 1 overall pick by the Wings, averaged 19.2 points, 5.4 assists and 3.9 rebounds while winning the league’s Rookie of the Year award.
Wings general manager Curt Miller said the team never hesitated in its choice to draft Fudd as the team looks to take steps forward after tying for the league’s worst record last season at 10-34 and winning only nine games in 2024.
“Since the moment we secured the No. 1 pick, we set out on a plan to be deliberate, thorough, with intention on evaluating where we got to ultimately in picking Azzi Fudd,” Miller said. “We traveled all over the world watching this incredible draft class, but it all came back always to Azzi.
“Words that we heard over and over again in the investigation of her was, a winner, competitor, a hard worker, obviously the skill set speaks for itself, an incredible shooter — probably one of the quickest releases in the game today, a defender with a lot of competitiveness and toughness, and, ultimately, all the intangibles that goes along with Azzi in the locker room — being unselfish, being an incredible teammate, being a high-basketball-IQ player. [It] all pointed us through a very deliberate and thorough process back to Azzi Fudd.”
Sports
Former SMU cornerback Teddy Knox faces $2.88M judgment for crash linked to Rashee Rice’s Lamborghini race
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Kansas City Chiefs star receiver Rashee Rice isn’t the only one facing discipline for a March 2024 car crash in Dallas.
Theodore “Teddy” Knox, a former SMU cornerback and teammate of Rice’s in college, was driving a Corvette while racing Rice’s Lamborghini on a Dallas highway before it caused a multi-car crash.
Knox has been hit with a $2.88 million default judgment in a lawsuit from one of those crash victims, Kathryn Kuykendall, according to ESPN.
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Teddy Knox and Rashee Rice (Getty Images)
Knox was ruled “grossly negligent” by Judge Kim Bailey Phipps, and a default judgment comes when a lawsuit has no response or a party does not appear in court. In this case, it was reportedly the latter.
“We’ve asked the court to grant the default judgment because we’re ethically required to as a matter of diligence,” Kuykendall’s attorney, Marc Lenahan, said in a statement to ESPN when the motion was filed.
“Personally, it pleases us that Teddy hasn’t made further mistakes that we’re aware of. If a team gives him a chance to prove that he’s walking the right path now, we’ll be rooting for him.”
PATRIOTS STAR STEFON DIGGS PLEADS NOT GUILTY TO FELONY STRANGULATION CHARGES DAYS AFTER SUPER BOWL
This marks the third default judgment issued against Knox from the March 2024 crash. He was also ordered to pay $1.99 million to Irina Gromova and $1.63 million to Edvard Petrovskiy in combined damages.
Knox and Rice pleaded guilty to charges from the crash, and Knox was sentenced to 30 days in jail and five years of probation. Knox was charged with causing a collision involving serious bodily injury and racing on a highway causing bodily injury.

SMU wide receiver Teddy Knox on special teams during a game against the North Texas Mean Green Nov. 10, 2023, at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. (Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire)
Rice had similar charges, receiving five-year deferred probation and 30 days in jail as a condition of the probation. His jail time was said to be flexible, according to the Dallas County District Attorney’s Office.
Rice was also required to pay the victims for their out-of-pocket medical expenses, which totaled around $115,000, as part of his plea agreement.
Rice was also suspended six games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, which he served last season.
The 25-year-old receiver said in a statement issued by his attorney at the time of the league’s decision that he’s had “a lot of sleepless nights thinking about the damages my actions caused, and I will continue working within my means to make sure that everyone impacted will be made whole.”

SMU Mustangs wide receiver Teddy Knox (18) prepares to make a catch during a game between against the TCU Horned Frogs Sept. 24, 2022, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. (Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire)
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Knox was suspended by SMU, and he hasn’t been in college football ever since. He began his career at Mississippi State before transferring to SMU.
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