Sports
The race for No. 1 draft pick: Five teams still in the mix, plus prospects they might consider
The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Only five teams have at least a 1% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises again after taking a look at midseason.
Our NFL Nation reporters looked at what went wrong for each team to get them in this position. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each teams’ chances in their final three games. Dan Graziano rated each team’s likelihood of trading the No. 1 pick on a 1-10 scale. And finally, Jordan Reid spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it kept the top selection.
Let’s start with the Raiders, who currently have the best odds at the first pick.
Jump to a team:
CLE | LV | NYG | NYJ | TEN
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Las Vegas has been a complete mess on offense. Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line’s inability to hold protection or create space hasn’t helped either player. The Raiders are currently 22nd in pass block win rate (61.0%) and tied for 18th in run block win rate (70.6%). — Ryan McFadden
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games but don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Raiders have the No. 1 pick locked up. Their Week 17 game is against the Giants, who are fourth on this list, and Week 18 is against an already eliminated Chiefs team. Who knows what that game will look like. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. All of these grades will be based on whether the team likes the top QB prospect — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or whomever else it could become — enough to justify taking him No. 1. The Raiders desperately need a real, long-term solution at quarterback and would be foolish to let an opportunity to draft one slip past them. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. Adding Smith as a veteran presence backfired. The Raiders desperately need a franchise QB, and this year’s Heisman Trophy winner could fill that void as the top option in this class. His toughness, poise and accuracy are traits that can translate quickly. The franchise hasn’t selected a QB in Round 1 since 2007, when it took Jamarcus Russell with the top pick. — Reid
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.3%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 89.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Offense. For the second straight season, the Browns have one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for the lowest mark in yards per play (4.3) this season. The Browns are last in offensive EPA, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and have cycled through three different starting quarterbacks — Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. But the issues span beyond the QB, from an oft-injured and underperforming offensive line to a lack of playmakers on the outside. — Daniel Oyefusi
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They are most certainly not favored in any games. The Browns face the Bills, Steelers and Bengals, a high degree of difficulty stretch. FPI favors Cleveland’s opponents by at least 8.5 points in each of those matchups, though it remains to be seen what the state of the Bengals is in Week 18. Still, Browns fans hoping to see their team lose out have a good chance of that happening.— Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
4. Anyone who tells you they know what the Browns are going to do at QB next season is lying. They have two rookies (Sanders and Gabriel), Deshaun Watson still on the roster at a price of $46 million and two first-round picks in 2026. If they fall in love with Mendoza, I feel confident they’d take him here. If they aren’t in love with any QB prospect and feel good about Sanders, Gabriel and/or Watson for one more season, then they could trade it and address the problem with even more draft capital in 2027. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. I don’t think Gabriel and Sanders have shown enough this season to stop the Browns from continuing to find their long-term answer under center. This season, the Browns are 30th in passing yards per game (171.9) and last in Total QBR (24.6). Arguably the most consistent passer in this class, Mendoza has the potential to bring stability to a franchise that has lacked it since Baker Mayfield was traded in 2022. — Reid
2:18
Stephen A. blames Stefanski for not developing Browns QBs
Stephen A. Smith calls out Browns coach Kevin Stefanski for refusing to develop other quarterbacks while the team tries Shedeur Sanders at QB.
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.9%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Lack of complementary football. There have been games when the Titans’ defense played well but eventually wore down after being on the field too much because the offense couldn’t sustain drives. Tennessee is currently 28th in time of possession and second worst in total yards per game (250.5). But the offense has given the defense a chance to close out games, like in Week 11 (a 16-13 loss to Houston). It didn’t happen. — Turron Davenport
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games by FPI, but there are a couple of winnable games. The Titans are getting the Chiefs fresh off their playoff elimination and without quarterback Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Will Kansas City pack it in in a meaningless game? It wouldn’t be that shocking. And though the Saints are playing well, that’s not a sure-fire loss for Tennessee in Week 17. But Week 18 could easily be a loss if the game is meaningful for the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
9. I’d be shocked if Tennessee took a QB at No. 1 two years in a row. It has never happened. The only reason it’s not a 10 is because a new coach could decide he’s not sold on rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Though, why take the job if that’s the case? This front office, led by first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi, drafted Ward No. 1 last spring and believes in him. So trading the pick for future draft capital would make sense. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Arvell Reese, Edge/linebacker, Ohio State. In need of talent on both sides of the ball, Reese is a versatile defender who’s capable of playing edge rusher and off-ball linebacker. His combination of explosiveness, power and physicality are all qualities that give him the potential to be a building block for a defense that already has star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. — Reid
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.1%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 76.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
The entire program. The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and assistant defensive line coach Bryan Cox at different points this season. The defense has been extremely disappointing given the talent (tied for 30th in yards allowed per play), but that is just part of a bigger problem. The Giants’ leadership, culture and locker room are all sour. How else do you explain winning five of the past 31 games? — Jordan Raanan
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
FPI, which is particularly fond of the Giants this season, favors them this week against the Vikings (though Minnesota is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings). Next week, both the betting line and FPI agree the Giants should be favored against the Raiders. And our model makes the Cowboys-Giants Week 18 game a pick ’em. All of that is a big part of the reason why the Giants aren’t higher on this list. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
8. Similar to what I said about the Titans, except that the Giants could have a new coach and new GM if Joe Schoen is replaced. And if that new leadership has concerns about quarterback Jaxson Dart‘s durability and felt 100 percent convinced on a QB prospect in this class, maybe they make that move. But again, it would be a major surprise from an organization that has reason to believe in last spring’s first-round selection. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Reese. Like the Titans, the Giants have their QB in place with Dart. With edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2026, Reese could turn into an edge rusher, off-ball linebacker hybrid if Thibodeaux is not brought back. Simply taking a best player available approach, he would make a lot of sense as another key addition on a defense with plenty of young talent. — Reid
1:38
Why a full offseason could be key for Jaxson Dart’s growth
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.8%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 77.8%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Everything except special teams. The defense regressed badly under defense-minded coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Steve Wilks, resulting in Wilks’ firing after 14 games. The offense was weighed down by poor quarterback play, as the Justin Fields experiment was a resounding failure that cost them $30 million in guarantees. The Jets have some players on offense, but neither Fields, Tyrod Taylor nor Brady Cook were able to galvanize the unit. The team is currently ranked 27th in Total QBR (40.6). — Rich Cimini
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
The Jets aren’t favored at the Saints, against the Patriots and at the Bills to close out the season. The Saints are playing well enough that they probably will be able to take care of the Jets, so the big risk comes in Week 18 if the Bills have already lost the AFC East and don’t have much to play for. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. The Jets are a complete blank slate at QB moving forward. They don’t have any major cap issues connected with Fields or Aaron Rodgers anymore. They need a star at QB and would be unwise to pass up a chance to draft one with the top pick. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. With five first-round picks over the next two seasons, the Jets have the most draft capital of any of the QB-needy teams. They’d love to keep that future capital to build around Moore after the Fields signing did not work out. Moore’s poise and ball placement project well in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s system given his potential as a true distributor. — Reid
NEW YORK — Mike Trout‘s latest homer against the New York Yankees put him in rare company, and going deep again made history at Yankee Stadium.
Trout homered for the fifth time during a four-game series Thursday, crushing a 446-foot drive in the seventh inning for the Los Angeles Angels in an 11-4 victory.
A three-time MVP, Trout joined Jimmie Foxx (1933), Darrell Evans (1985) and George Bell (1990) as the only players with five homers in a series against the Yankees, according to MLB researcher Sarah Langs.
Trout homered twice Monday before going deep again in the following two games. In the series finale Thursday, Trout drove a 2-2 slider from reliever Angel Chivilli about halfway up the left-field bleachers to give the Angels a 7-4 lead. That shot made Trout the first player to hit five homers in a series in the Bronx.
“I heard that after the game,” Trout said. “It’s pretty surreal. All the great players that came through here, so it’s pretty cool.”
“Honestly, not surprising,” Los Angeles manager Kurt Suzuki said. “When you’re with Mike every day, there’s nothing that you believe that he can’t do.”
Trout also became the first visiting player to homer in four consecutive days at the current Yankee Stadium, which opened in 2009.
Trout went 6-for-16 with five homers and nine RBIs in the series. He also has homered in his past five games at Yankee Stadium and drew an intentional walk in his next plate appearance before Jo Adell hit a grand slam.
“At this point it’s vintage Mike Trout,” Adell said. “When he’s healthy and feeling good, there’s nothing like it. It’s special. It’s one of a kind. So for all of us to experience it, it’s special.”
“He’s unbelievable,” Suzuki said. “He really is. It’s been an amazing week for him.”
Trout is hitting .246 with seven homers and 16 RBIs. He is 9-for-27 (.333) with five homers and 13 RBIs on the Angels’ road trip, which coincides with him making a mechanical tweak.
Trout’s career-high homer streak is seven games, achieved Sept. 4-12, 2022. He has homered in four straight games for the fourth time in his career.
Trout’s homer was part of a four-game series that featured four homers from Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge. Judge homered twice Monday, again Wednesday and went deep in the first inning in the series finale.
“He’s unreal,” designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton said after the Yankees lost for the seventh time in nine games. “Cool showing from him and Judgie all series. Obviously, you don’t want that against us, but you got to acknowledge the greatness.”
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it was the first time opposing players who owned multiple MVPs hit at least three homers in the same series.
“It was an impressive show by those two,” Suzuki said.
FORT WORTH, Texas — The first semifinal session of the NCAA gymnastics championships included LSU, Florida, Georgia and Stanford — with Florida and LSU advancing to Saturday’s final (4 p.m. ET; ABC).
Next up, Oklahoma, UCLA, Arkansas and Minnesota will compete in Semifinal II, beginning at 9 pm ET (ESPN2). Once again, the top two teams will move on.
Individual event titles and an all-around winner will also be awarded today — but not until both semifinal sessions are complete.
Who will make it to the next round? Will an upset surprise us all? We’ll have you covered with all the action here.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill on Wednesday joined U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer in calling on FIFA to contribute toward World Cup transit security costs.
MetLife Stadium will host eight World Cup games, including the tournament final. The Athletic reported earlier this week that NJ Transit is considering charging $100 for train tickets to shuttle fans between New York Penn Station and the stadium. Standard fare is $12.90.
Parking will be restricted at the Meadowlands stadium complex compared to NFL games — making public transport one of the only options to attend World Cup matches, which get underway June 11.
“We inherited an agreement where FIFA is providing $0 for transportation to the World Cup,” Sherrill said on X. “And while NJ TRANSIT is stuck with a $48 million bill to safely get fans to and from games, FIFA is making $11 billion. I’m not going to stick New Jersey commuters with that tab for years to come.
“FIFA should pay for the rides. But if they don’t — I’m not going to let New Jersey get taken for one.”
Speaking on WNYC on Wednesday, Sherrill said she would approve the fare increase if FIFA doesn’t step in.
“I will, if that’s what it takes, because I’m not putting this on the back of New Jerseyans,” she said.
On Wednesday, NJ Transit’s board of directors unanimously approved a resolution to set transport prices to “cover any and all costs” to transport fans and comply with Sherrill’s directive.
NJ Transit CEO Kris Kolluri on Wednesday said he supported Sherrill’s plea to FIFA and confirmed that commuters would not pay extra costs, according to NJ.com.
“The governor said whatever the fare will be, it will not be cross subsidized by our regular commuters. I’d think every NJ Transit customer would stand behind that,” Kolluri told NJ.com. “It will cost us $48 million. We will charge FIFA fans for those tickets, and it will not be subsidized by our commuters.”
Schumer on Monday said FIFA should be helping pay for World Cup transit security costs.
“FIFA is set to reap nearly $11 billion from this summer’s World Cup, yet New York area commuters and residents are being handed the bill,” Schumer wrote on X. “The least FIFA can do is ensure New York residents can go to the stadium without being gouged at the turnstile. I am demanding FIFA step up.”
We inherited an agreement where FIFA is providing $0 for transportation to the World Cup.
And while NJ TRANSIT is stuck with a $48 million bill to safely get fans to and from games, FIFA is making $11 billion.
I’m not going to stick New Jersey commuters with that tab for years… pic.twitter.com/pugU8davkW
— Governor Mikie Sherrill (@GovSherrillNJ) April 15, 2026
Earlier this month, New Jersey’s host travel committee released a detailed plan for transport and parking during the matches, outlining a park-and-ride plan with specific parking lots and shuttle buses that will run to and from the stadium.
“While rideshare and limited premium parking options will be available, the FIFA World Cup at NYNJ Stadium will be a public transportation first event, largely relying on NJ Transit rail and Host Committee bus shuttles,” Natalie Hamilton, a host committee spokesperson, told NJ.com.
“We are strongly encouraging all ticket holders to utilize expanded NJ Transit rail service and the Host Committee’s Stadium Shuttle.”
A FIFA spokesperson insisted the host city had previously agreed to provide free or at-cost transportation to fans at all matches.
“We are quite surprised by the NJ governor’s approach on fan transportation,” FIFA said in a statement Wednesday.
“The original FIFA World Cup 2026 host city agreements signed in 2018 required free transportation for fans to all matches. Recognizing the financial strain this placed on the host cities, back in 2023 FIFA adjusted the host agreement requirements across all host cities as follows: All match ticket holders and accredited individuals shall be able to access transport [public or additionally planned transport] at cost to allow travel to stadiums on match days.
“Moreover, FIFA has worked for years with host cities on their transportation and mobility plans, including advocating for millions of dollars in federal funding to support host cities for transportation.
“The FIFA World Cup will bring millions of fans to North America along with the related economic impact. Many of these fans will travel to NYNJ to enjoy the eight matches scheduled, including the FIFA World Cup final.
“FIFA is not aware of any other major event previously held at NYNJ Stadium, including other major sports, global concert tours, etc, where organizers were required to pay for fan transportation.”
During the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022, ticket holders enjoyed free transport on the city’s Metro system, funded by the country’s government.
UEFA bore the cost of ticket holders using German public transport in host cities on match days during Euro 2024.
Kansas City, where England’s training camp will be based, will offer free bus travel for fans from the airport close to the Fan Festival in the city center, and daily, weekly and tournament passes for unlimited regional travel costing $5.25 and $50, respectively.
Ticket holders will also be able to use a Stadium Direct service, which connects four park and ride locations as well as the Fan Festival to the Arrowhead Stadium for $15 per person, the host city committee said.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) said that there will be no fare increases connected to the staging of World Cup matches in Philadelphia.
The spokesperson said most if not all of the added operating costs of running the services during the World Cup would be covered by a recently awarded federal grant.
Information from Press Association and The Associated Press was used in this report.
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