Business
The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for
A large industrial warehouse features rows of shelves stacked with packages, while two workers in safety gear are walking and inspecting the storage. Utilized space exemplifies efficiency and systematic inventory management.
Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images
A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
After a pandemic-driven surge, and a subsequent pullback, warehouse real estate supply and demand is finally starting to come into balance and showing new signs of life.
E-commerce, which was the primary driver of the recent boom cycle, certainly hasn’t gone away, but more people are returning to brick and mortar. Warehouse tenants are now more focused on efficiency, power and location than they are on square footage.
New development has slowed down, and federal policies are pushing onshoring of manufacturing, which helps the sector counter still-high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Rent increases are no longer as steep as they were a few years ago, and in some markets they are actually falling slightly due to oversupply.
“Industrial property rents are showing signs of stabilization, indicating a more balanced market environment,” said Judy Guarino, managing director of commercial mortgage lending at JPMorgan Chase, in a note to investors.
Here’s what to watch for in warehouses in 2026.
Big-box
The big-box subsector refers to large, modern distribution and warehouse facilities that serve as hubs for logistics, storage and e-commerce fulfillment. It makes up about a quarter of the total industrial warehouse space in the U.S.
Vacancies are close to cyclical peaks and new construction is contracting, according to industry data. In the first half of this year, new supply still outpaced new demand, but the gap shrank, according to new research from Colliers. Third-party logistics firms, including delivery services such as Ryder and DHL moving goods on behalf of a client, are leading that demand.
“The third-quarter demand has far exceeded the entire first half of the year, which is another really strong indicator that the supply and demand is starting to get more into a balanced state,” said Stephanie Rodriguez, national director of industrial services at Colliers.
Across the 20 largest markets, the overall big-box vacancy rate rose 19 basis points to 11% during the first half of the year, according to Colliers. New supply totaled 48 million square feet in the first half of 2025, much less than the 330 million square feet completed at the height of the cycle in 2023. Rents are expected to stabilize in the near term before starting to grow again.
Big-box is a major segment of the overall warehouse real estate market, particularly driven by demand from online retailers and companies seeking efficient supply chain operations. Recent economic and tariff policies have definitely shaken that demand, but as those policies settle, more demand could return. Lower interest rates would be another driver.
Supply chain
Supply chain, which relies heavily on warehouse real estate, is also seeing something of a transformation that could increase demand. In a report titled “Bold Predictions for 2026,” Prologis, the world’s largest logistics real estate company, cited specific supply chain trends to watch, including forecasts that:
- E-commerce companies will make up nearly 25% of new leasing next year as the proportion of goods sold online rises to almost 20% globally by year-end.
- The need for power-ready logistics facilities capable of supporting automation and manufacturing will be a top-three factor globally in location selection.
- Defense-related demand in the U.S. and Europe will breathe new life into older industrial corridors and produce a new class of specialized logistics assets.
- Shrinking trucking capacity will drive double-digit rate hikes in 2026, making transportation an even larger share of total supply chain spend and amplifying the value of well-located logistics real estate.
Power
Power is emerging as a leading driver across real estate portfolios. Beyond the usual narrative of e-commerce and the data center sector, power availability and network densification are becoming important pricing catalysts, according to a recent report from Hines, a global real estate investment manager.
“While re/near-shoring demand continues to pick up speed, albeit slowly and with somewhat uneven impact, opportunity also lies in power-advantaged infill assets that support faster and denser networks; where distance once drove advantage, closeness now creates it,” according to the Hines report.
Reshoring
Further research from Hines shows that warehouse net absorption has correlated to manufacturing construction spend.
“This trend highlights another potential source of demand not only for industrial manufacturing facilities, but for the warehouse subsector as well,” according to its report, which predicts reshoring alone could increase overall warehouse demand over the next five years by roughly 35%.
“Despite the volatility in the macroeconomic landscape, driven by interest rate and trade policy uncertainties, industrial properties near ports remain vital,” Guarino said. “Tariffs may lead to higher costs and supply chain challenges, but these locations are key to maintaining supply chain resilience and adapting to trade shifts.”
Proximity
One example of the proximity advantage: Amazon. Its logistics real estate strategy mirrors a broader national trend, prioritizing efficiency, automation and consumer proximity over sheer scale, according to a note from CoStar.
“It’s an interesting inflection point for industrial developers and REITs that rode the pandemic-era boom,” wrote Juan Arias, CoStar Group’s national director of industrial analytics.
Arias highlighted a leasing slowdown, noting that this year Amazon has occupied just 61 logistics properties, down from 100 in 2024 and as many as 300 in recent years. Its demand for larger footprint facilities hit a seven-year low, but it is still drawn to newer, taller buildings, with an emphasis on modern, efficient distribution centers, Arias said.
AI
As with everything else, artificial intelligence and property technology are making an imprint on the warehouse sector as well. They are helping owners and operators to analyze supply chains, traffic patterns and data more efficiently — particularly important in identifying potential warehouse locations. They are also helping to manage inventory and predict maintenance needs, both of which reduce costs.
Business
Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field
Labour MPs are among a group of more than 60 parliamentarians to have made public their opposition to the planned Rosebank oil field – with one of Sir Keir Starmer’s backbenchers urging the Government to rule against the development and take a stand “against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters”.
Clive Lewis is one of more than 50 MPs at Westminster who have signed a pledge from campaign group Uplift to “oppose the Rosebank oil field” and instead “advocate for a properly funded just transition for oil and gas workers and communities”.
Urging the Government to reject the development, Norwich South MP Mr Lewis said: “We must stand our ground against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters.
“Approving an enormous new oil field would mean caving in to their anti-climate, anti-renewables agenda that runs completely counter to our values and our long-term interests.”
Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray, another of the Labour MPs to have signed the pledge, said the decision on Rosebank was “an opportunity for the Government to change course”.
It comes as the UK Government continues to consider whether the development of the oil field can go ahead – with Labour now under mounting pressure after the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens on Thursday.
Rosebank, which lies about 80 miles west of Shetland, is the UK’s largest untapped field, containing up to an estimated 300 million barrels of oil.
Drilling there was approved by the Conservative government in 2023 but was then subject to a legal challenge in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling which said the emissions created from burning fossil fuels should be considered when granting permission for new sites.
Now the decision on whether it can proceed lies with Labour ministers – with some 16 Labour MPs having made plain their opposition to the development.
The group includes Mr Lewis, Mr Murray, former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Scottish Labour’s Brian Leishman.
Former Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have also signed the pledge, along with a number of Liberal Democrat and Green MPs, SNP MP Chris Law, Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts and Paul Maskey of Sinn Fein.
In Scotland a number of Labour MSPs have signed the pledge, along with Green MSPs – including the party’s Scottish co-leader Ross Greer – and former SNP health secretary Michael Matheson.
While previous Scottish first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf made plain their opposition to Rosebank, First Minister John Swinney has insisted the Scottish Government takes a “case-by-case approach” to new oil and gas developments, stressing these should only proceed if found to be compatible with climate change targets.
Mr Lewis said opposing Rosebank would “show that a Labour Government will stand by the promises we made to the country”.
He added: “There are only so many times we can afford to make mistakes and then change course.
“With Rosebank, we have an opportunity to get it right the first time.”
Mr Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said many locals in his constituency were “deeply concerned about Rosebank and rightly so”.
He added: “Climate change is one of the reasons I came into politics, and opening new oil and gas fields is simply incompatible with our climate commitments.
“With the North Sea’s oil supply dwindling, Scotland’s energy sector must transition to clean energy, or workers risk being left behind.”
Scottish Labour MSP Mercedes Villalba, who has also signed the pledge, argued that “approving projects like Rosebank will lock us into a toxic dependence on volatile, conflict-ridden fossil fuels”.
This would create “another excuse to delay the urgent investment needed to create secure, well-paid jobs for Scotland’s workers”, she added.
Ms Villalba said: “In an increasingly uncertain world, where climate action is relegated in favour of fossil politics, the UK and Scotland must lead the way on the clean energy transition.”
Wera Hobhouse, Liberal Democrat MP for Bath, said people in her constituency and across the country “are already facing the consequences of an increasingly unstable climate”.
Highlighting the impact of flooding and “skyrocketing food prices”, she said that “climate impacts are now a daily reality”.
Ms Hobhouse said: “Extreme weather is damaging crops, putting pressure on farmers, and destroying our precious natural environment.
“We cannot ignore these warning signs.
“A massive new oil field like Rosebank would only make matters worse.
“The emissions would be enormous, locking us into decades more pollution when we should be cutting carbon and unlocking the benefits of cheap, renewable energy.”
Approving the Rosebank development would “make a mockery of Labour’s environmental promises”, she said.
A UK Government spokesperson said: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good long-term jobs.”
Business
UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India
In an unprecedented economic response to escalating regional conflict, the United Arab Emirates has announced that its two major financial markets, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), will remain closed on Monday, March 2 and Tuesday, March 3, 2026. The decision comes as the UAE reels from a series of retaliatory Iranian strikes following coordinated US and Israeli military actions against Iran, which have destabilised Gulf business sentiment and prompted sweeping security and economic precautions.The UAE Capital Markets Authority said that keeping the exchanges closed temporarily is part of its supervisory and regulatory mandate, providing authorities and market participants time to assess the impact of recent events on financial infrastructure and investor confidence. The halt affects equities, derivatives and trading in hundreds of billions of dollars in listed assets and is among the clearest signs yet of economic shockwaves from the regional crisis.
Why UAE stock markets are paused: Regional conflict among Iran–US–Israel disrupts confidence
The closures follow Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf cities and strategic targets, including airports and other infrastructure, after a joint US–Israel offensive. These attacks have not only led to safety measures such as airspace restrictions and travel advisories but also triggered widespread business disruption across the Gulf. Major airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have seen operations halted or altered and commercial hubs from ports to retail centres have felt the strain.
UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?
Financial markets are typically among the first economic indicators affected by geopolitical instability. When investors fear prolonged unrest, they often pull funds from equities and seek so-called “safe-haven” assets like gold, sovereign debt or commodities such as oil, especially when conflict threatens critical energy supply corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional market turmoil and knock-on effects in the Middle East amid Iran–US–Israel clashes
While the UAE exchanges are closed, other Gulf markets that remained open on Sunday experienced significant sell-offs as investors reacted to the turmoil:
- Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index saw sharp drops before partially recovering as investors weighed conflict risks against energy price gains.
- Muscat and other regional bourses also slid, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
- In Kuwait, authorities took the rare step of suspending trading indefinitely due to “exceptional circumstances” linked to the same regional tensions.
Financial markets are serving as a barometer of risk and economic confidence and the dramatic moves across the Gulf underscore how intertwined political stability is with economic performance in the region.
What the UAE’s stock market closure means for investors
For both domestic and international investors, the temporary shutdown of ADX and DFM has several implications. Liquidity and price discovery are paused, leaving billions of dollars in listed assets in limbo. Risk premiums on Gulf assets may rise, as traders reassess exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Investor sentiment is likely to remain fragile until there are visible signs of de-escalation or credible diplomatic resolutions.Economists note that halting trading does not eliminate market pressure, it simply delays it and when markets do reopen, there may be sharp moves as investors recalibrate positions based on new geopolitical and economic realities. The conflict has not just shaken stock markets, energy markets have also reacted. Reports from analysts indicate that crude oil prices have surged as fears of supply disruptions increase, with the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for roughly 20% of global oil exports, under theoretical threat of closure.
UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?
Higher oil prices can partially offset stock market pain in energy-exporting economies like the UAE but the overall economic impact remains complex. Other sectors, from tourism and hospitality to trade and logistics, have also felt immediate fallout: airport shutdowns have stranded travellers and corporate events and networking key to Ramadan business cycles have been postponed, compounding uncertainty.
UAE government messaging and future prospects
UAE authorities have stressed that public and economic safety remain top priorities. The temporary market closure is coupled with broad advisories across transportation, education and public services, such as airports issuing travel advisories and schools moving to remote learning, aimed at ensuring operational stability while the situation evolves. Officials have pledged to monitor conditions closely and communicate updates on any further market action. This includes potential rescheduling of reopening dates for ADX and DFM or additional measures to support investors once trading resumes.The UAE Capital Markets Authority ordered a two-day closure of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock markets on March 2–3, 2026, in response to escalating regional tensions. The pause follows retaliatory strikes by Iran after US and Israeli military action, which have disrupted markets, air travel and business operations across the Gulf. Gulf markets that remained open experienced sharp declines and volatility, reflecting investor risk aversion. Oil prices and safe-haven assets have climbed as geopolitical risk fuels global economic uncertainty. Authorities will continue to assess and communicate market developments as conditions evolve.
Business
CVT: constitutional competence and valuation complexities | The Express Tribune
Taxpayers must adopt carefully structured approach to ensure compliance while optimising tax efficiency
Tax collection. Photo: file
KARACHI:
Capital value tax (CVT) is not a novel concept in Pakistan’s fiscal framework. It was first introduced through the Finance Act, 1989, primarily as a tax on the acquisition or transfer of specified assets, including immovable property, motor vehicles, and certain financial instruments.
Over time, its scope and application evolved, and it effectively ceased to operate after its abolition through the Tax Laws (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020.
The present CVT regime was reintroduced under Section 8 of the Finance Act 2022 as Capital Value Tax 2022, complemented by the Capital Value Tax Rules, 2022 (SRO 1797(I)/2022 dated September 29, 2022) with further amendments vide Finance Act 2024. The CVT 2022 significantly expanded its scope, notably extending the tax to certain foreign assets of resident individuals, thereby reviving an old concept in a new constitutional and policy context.
Considering the recent wave of notices for CVT recovery and compliance obligations for high-net-worth individuals, it is timely to revisit its key provisions and complexities. Given these complexities, taxpayers must adopt a carefully structured approach to ensure compliance while optimising tax efficiency.
Scope and rates of CVT 2022
As per CVT 2022, a tax shall be levied on the value of assets at rates specified in the First Schedule for tax year 2022 onwards, with motor vehicles in Pakistan subject to taxation from July 1, 2022. The CVT applies to motor vehicles exceeding 1300cc engine capacity, or electric vehicles with battery capacity over 50 kWh, as well as foreign assets of resident individuals exceeding an aggregate value of Rs100 million. In addition, the tax applies to assets notified by the federal government through official notifications.
The Finance Act 2024 introduced an additional category comprising farmhouses and residential houses within the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), which are taxed on the basis of area rather than value.
The rates under CVT 2022 vary according to asset type. Motor vehicles and foreign assets are charged at 1% of their value, while notified assets cannot exceed 5% of their value. Farmhouses in ICT are subject to Rs500,000 for areas between 2,000 and 4,000 square yards, and Rs1,000,000 if the area exceeds 4,000 square yards. Residential houses in ICT are charged Rs1,000,000 for areas between 1,000 and 2,000 square yards, and Rs1,500,000 if the area exceeds 2,000 square yards.
Valuation methodology
The valuation of motor vehicles depends on their origin. Imported vehicles are valued based on the customs-assessed import price plus duties and taxes, while locally manufactured or assembled vehicles are assessed at ex-factory prices inclusive of all applicable duties and taxes.
Vehicles sold at public auction are valued at the auction price, inclusive of duties and taxes. In all cases, the vehicle’s value is reduced by 10% for each year from the end of the financial year in which it was acquired, and the value is treated as zero after five years.
Foreign assets are valued either at their total cost or, if the cost cannot be determined with reasonable accuracy, at fair market value. These values are expressed in the relevant foreign currency and converted into Pakistani rupees using exchange rates notified by the State Bank of Pakistan for the last day of the tax year. For notified assets, the valuation follows the specific method prescribed in the government notification.
Collection and compliance
The mechanism for the collection of CVT varies depending on the asset type. For motor vehicles, customs authorities collect the tax on import, manufacturers or assemblers collect on local purchases, and auctioneers collect at the point of sale. Excise and taxation registration authorities collect the tax at the time of vehicle registration or transfer, except where it has already been collected at the import, purchase, or auction stage.
For foreign assets, the liability to pay CVT falls on the person holding the asset through their income tax return. In the case of assets notified by the federal government, the collection follows the method specified in the relevant notification. Failure to pay or collect the tax renders the person personally liable, including a default surcharge of 12% per annum calculated from the due date until payment.
Key legal and computational issues
CVT 2022 raises several legal and computational questions. Legally, the primary issue is whether the federation has the authority to impose tax on foreign assets located outside Pakistan. Additionally, under Entry 50 of the Federal Legislative List, there is debate over whether the federal government can tax immovable property or not based on the fact that it specifies “not including taxes on immovable property”.
Other questions concern the treatment of assets previously declared under the Foreign Assets (Declaration and Repatriation) Act, 2018, the appropriate exchange rate for valuation, and whether historical cost or fair market value should be used. Computational complexities also arise, such as whether foreign liabilities should be deducted from gross asset values to determine the net capital value. These questions along with the jurisdictional challenges form the core of ongoing deliberations surrounding CVT.
Judicial interpretations
The High Courts of Sindh and Lahore have upheld the constitutionality of CVT 2022, ruling that parliament possesses legislative competence to tax the capital value of foreign assets held by resident individuals. The courts clarified that the “immovable property” exception in Entry 50 applies only to domestic property and does not restrict the federal government from taxing global assets. The CVT is considered a tax on the capital value of assets, not on the property itself, allowing the federal government to tax assets outside provincial jurisdictions.
The Appellate Tribunal Inland Revenue (ATIR) has addressed procedural and valuation issues, affirming that assets declared under past amnesty schemes are immune from prosecution for concealment but are not exempt from valid taxes like CVT. The ATIR has also emphasised that valuations must include proper accounting for related foreign liabilities to ensure taxation applies only to the net capital value.
In June 2023, the Supreme Court of Pakistan granted interim relief to petitioners, balancing revenue interests with taxpayers’ rights. Petitioners were directed to deposit 50% of the disputed CVT, with the remaining 50% secured via bank guarantees, effectively staying full recovery until the court determines the federal government’s authority to tax immovable property located abroad.
Legal clarity vs practical challenges
The revival of CVT raises fundamental questions about federal taxing powers, global wealth taxation, and valuation methodology. While High Courts have affirmed parliament’s competence to tax foreign assets of resident individuals, the matter remains under Supreme Court scrutiny.
Beyond constitutional validation, practical challenges persist in ensuring fair computation, accurate valuation, and the avoidance of double economic burden. As enforcement intensifies, clarity in both legal interpretation and administrative practice will determine whether CVT becomes a sustainable fiscal instrument or a recurring source of litigation.
The writer is a tax professional with extensive experience in corporate and international taxation in Pakistan
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