Business
The warehouse real estate sector is seeing a rebalance. Here’s what to watch for
A large industrial warehouse features rows of shelves stacked with packages, while two workers in safety gear are walking and inspecting the storage. Utilized space exemplifies efficiency and systematic inventory management.
Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images
A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
After a pandemic-driven surge, and a subsequent pullback, warehouse real estate supply and demand is finally starting to come into balance and showing new signs of life.
E-commerce, which was the primary driver of the recent boom cycle, certainly hasn’t gone away, but more people are returning to brick and mortar. Warehouse tenants are now more focused on efficiency, power and location than they are on square footage.
New development has slowed down, and federal policies are pushing onshoring of manufacturing, which helps the sector counter still-high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Rent increases are no longer as steep as they were a few years ago, and in some markets they are actually falling slightly due to oversupply.
“Industrial property rents are showing signs of stabilization, indicating a more balanced market environment,” said Judy Guarino, managing director of commercial mortgage lending at JPMorgan Chase, in a note to investors.
Here’s what to watch for in warehouses in 2026.
Big-box
The big-box subsector refers to large, modern distribution and warehouse facilities that serve as hubs for logistics, storage and e-commerce fulfillment. It makes up about a quarter of the total industrial warehouse space in the U.S.
Vacancies are close to cyclical peaks and new construction is contracting, according to industry data. In the first half of this year, new supply still outpaced new demand, but the gap shrank, according to new research from Colliers. Third-party logistics firms, including delivery services such as Ryder and DHL moving goods on behalf of a client, are leading that demand.
“The third-quarter demand has far exceeded the entire first half of the year, which is another really strong indicator that the supply and demand is starting to get more into a balanced state,” said Stephanie Rodriguez, national director of industrial services at Colliers.
Across the 20 largest markets, the overall big-box vacancy rate rose 19 basis points to 11% during the first half of the year, according to Colliers. New supply totaled 48 million square feet in the first half of 2025, much less than the 330 million square feet completed at the height of the cycle in 2023. Rents are expected to stabilize in the near term before starting to grow again.
Big-box is a major segment of the overall warehouse real estate market, particularly driven by demand from online retailers and companies seeking efficient supply chain operations. Recent economic and tariff policies have definitely shaken that demand, but as those policies settle, more demand could return. Lower interest rates would be another driver.
Supply chain
Supply chain, which relies heavily on warehouse real estate, is also seeing something of a transformation that could increase demand. In a report titled “Bold Predictions for 2026,” Prologis, the world’s largest logistics real estate company, cited specific supply chain trends to watch, including forecasts that:
- E-commerce companies will make up nearly 25% of new leasing next year as the proportion of goods sold online rises to almost 20% globally by year-end.
- The need for power-ready logistics facilities capable of supporting automation and manufacturing will be a top-three factor globally in location selection.
- Defense-related demand in the U.S. and Europe will breathe new life into older industrial corridors and produce a new class of specialized logistics assets.
- Shrinking trucking capacity will drive double-digit rate hikes in 2026, making transportation an even larger share of total supply chain spend and amplifying the value of well-located logistics real estate.
Power
Power is emerging as a leading driver across real estate portfolios. Beyond the usual narrative of e-commerce and the data center sector, power availability and network densification are becoming important pricing catalysts, according to a recent report from Hines, a global real estate investment manager.
“While re/near-shoring demand continues to pick up speed, albeit slowly and with somewhat uneven impact, opportunity also lies in power-advantaged infill assets that support faster and denser networks; where distance once drove advantage, closeness now creates it,” according to the Hines report.
Reshoring
Further research from Hines shows that warehouse net absorption has correlated to manufacturing construction spend.
“This trend highlights another potential source of demand not only for industrial manufacturing facilities, but for the warehouse subsector as well,” according to its report, which predicts reshoring alone could increase overall warehouse demand over the next five years by roughly 35%.
“Despite the volatility in the macroeconomic landscape, driven by interest rate and trade policy uncertainties, industrial properties near ports remain vital,” Guarino said. “Tariffs may lead to higher costs and supply chain challenges, but these locations are key to maintaining supply chain resilience and adapting to trade shifts.”
Proximity
One example of the proximity advantage: Amazon. Its logistics real estate strategy mirrors a broader national trend, prioritizing efficiency, automation and consumer proximity over sheer scale, according to a note from CoStar.
“It’s an interesting inflection point for industrial developers and REITs that rode the pandemic-era boom,” wrote Juan Arias, CoStar Group’s national director of industrial analytics.
Arias highlighted a leasing slowdown, noting that this year Amazon has occupied just 61 logistics properties, down from 100 in 2024 and as many as 300 in recent years. Its demand for larger footprint facilities hit a seven-year low, but it is still drawn to newer, taller buildings, with an emphasis on modern, efficient distribution centers, Arias said.
AI
As with everything else, artificial intelligence and property technology are making an imprint on the warehouse sector as well. They are helping owners and operators to analyze supply chains, traffic patterns and data more efficiently — particularly important in identifying potential warehouse locations. They are also helping to manage inventory and predict maintenance needs, both of which reduce costs.
John Ternus will take over running the technology giant as Cook steps up to become executive chairman.
Source link
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has received $1 billion from the Ministry of Finance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, marking the second tranche of a $3 billion deposit agreed recently, the central bank said on Tuesday.
According to the statement issued by the central bank, the second tranche was received with a value date of April 20, 2026.
The first tranche of $2 billion had already been received on April 15, 2026, bringing the total inflows under the arrangement to $3 billion.
The development comes days after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia, where he engaged in diplomatic efforts aimed at promoting regional peace.
During his visit, the premier met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah and expressed appreciation for the Kingdom’s continued support for Pakistan’s economic stability. He also conveyed solidarity with Saudi Arabia in light of recent regional developments.
Earlier on April 16, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had announced that Saudi Arabia would provide $3 billion in additional financial support, with disbursement expected shortly.
He also noted that Riyadh had extended the tenure of its existing $5 billion deposit, removing the earlier annual rollover requirement.
The Saudi funding has strengthened Pakistan’s external position as it repaid $2 billion in debt to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The amount was kept with the central banks as a safe deposit.
Saudi Arabia has been a key financial partner for Pakistan, having provided support packages during previous economic challenges, including a $6 billion assistance programme in 2018 comprising deposits and oil facility arrangements.
Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz, also known as Madiq Hurmuz, and 3D printed oil barrels are seen in this illustration taken March 26, 2026. PHOTO: REUTERS
HONG KONG:
With the end of a two-week ceasefire approaching, the White House said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for fresh negotiations to end a conflict that has sent crude soaring and revived inflation fears.
However, the Islamic Republic’s position remained uncertain as it accused Washington of violating their fragile truce through its blockade of the country’s ports and seizure of a ship.
Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.
Read: US positive on Iran deal but talks still uncertain as ceasefire end nears
But the commodity rebounded on Monday as Iran closed the waterway again, citing the blockade and seizure.
Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.
The US president said the blockade would not be lifted until an agreement had been reached.
“THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a ‘DEAL,’ is absolutely destroying Iran,” Trump said on social media. “They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run.”
He told PBS News that Iran was “supposed to be there” at the talks in Pakistan.
“We agreed to be there,” he said, warning that if the ceasefire expired “then lots of bombs start going off”.
He separately told Bloomberg News it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the truce.
Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight on Tuesday, Iran time, although in his comments to Bloomberg Trump said the end was Wednesday evening Washington time.
The Middle Eastern country’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said “Trump wants to turn this negotiating table into a surrender table or justify renewed hostilities, as he sees fit”.
“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield,” he wrote on X.
Still, investors remained largely upbeat that the two sides will eventually come to a deal that will reopen the strategic strait.
US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose more than 1%, while Brent was also higher.
Tech rally
Seoul led the equity market gains thanks to a resumption of the tech rally that had pushed the Kospi to multiple records before the war, while Tokyo and Taipei were also well up.
Hong Kong, Singapore and Manila also advanced, although Shanghai and Sydney fluctuated.
That came even after a down day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from Friday’s record closes.
Asia had opened “with a gentle lean into risk as signs Iran may join talks with the US offer a pathway, however narrow, toward easing tensions ahead of the ceasefire deadline”, wrote SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.
“Markets are pricing the possibility of progress rather than its certainty,” he said.
“Trump’s remark that a ceasefire extension is ‘highly unlikely’ if no deal is reached has effectively put a clock on the market.
“However, traders recognise the playbook. Hard deadlines and firm rhetoric often soften as negotiations evolve, but the presence of a timeline still sharpens positioning and raises the stakes around each headline.”
In company news, Japanese arms firms enjoyed healthy buying after Tokyo said on Tuesday it would ease decades-old export rules, paving the way for the sale of lethal weapons overseas.
The policy shift, which ends Tokyo’s self-imposed restraint on the sale of lethal arms, comes as it seeks to enter the international arms market, hoping to bolster national defence as well as boost economic growth.
Fujitsu climbed 2.4%, NEC added 3.7%, and Mitsubishi Electric was up 0.9%, while Mitsubishi Heavy gained 0.4%.
Key figures around 0230 GMT
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.2% at $88.50 a barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.4% at $95.12 a barrel
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.3% at 59,596.10 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3% at 26,427.75
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2% at 4,073.82
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1780 from $1.1786 on Monday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3525 from $1.3535
Dollar/yen: UP at 158.98 yen from 158.88 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 87.10 pence from 87.07 pence
New York – Dow Jones: FLAT at 49,442.56 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6% at 10,609.08 (close)
Scam messages offering ships safe transit through Hormuz, warns security firm
UN Security Council denounces killing of French peacekeeper in Lebanon
Apple names new boss to replace Tim Cook after 15 years
-
Fashion5 days agoFrance’s LVMH Q1 revenue falls 6%, shows resilience amid Iran war
-
Sports1 week agoThe case for Man United’s Fernandes as Premier League’s best
-
Entertainment1 week agoPalace left in shock as Prince William cancels grand ceremony
-
Business1 week agoUK could adopt EU single market rules under new legislation
-
Entertainment6 days agoIs Claude down? Here’s why users are seeing errors
-
Fashion1 week agoEnergy emerges as biggest cost driver in textile margins
-
Business1 week agoDelta Air Lines unveils first new Delta One suite in premium cabin arms race
-
Tech1 week agoA Lot of Shops Won’t Fix Electric Bikes. Here’s Why