Business
Trade deficit is not crisis, it’s investment in growth | The Express Tribune
Rising imports of industrial inputs signal economic revival, not decline, as Pakistan embarks on tariff reform
ISLAMABAD:
Each month, when the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) releases its trade figures, one number grabs headlines: the trade deficit or the gap between imports and exports. The latest data, showing a 38% increase in the first four months of the fiscal year, was no exception. Predictably, critics of trade reform were quick to argue that Pakistan’s import liberalisation is driving the country towards economic ruin.
Some even call the tariff reform a “suicide mission.” Their solution is predictable: return to the old playbook of regulatory and additional duties. But this strategy has been tried repeatedly over the last 17 years, and each time it worsened the very problems it aimed to solve, leading to stagnant growth, deeper poverty, and declining exports.
What this debate often ignores is a simple question: what kinds of imports are rising? About 85% of Pakistan’s imports consist of petroleum, chemicals, machinery, textile industry raw materials, metals, and essential food products such as edible oils, tea, and lentils. These are not luxury items; they are critical inputs for production, energy, and food security. Rising imports of this kind suggest that industries are reviving and consumer demand is strengthening, both signs of economic activity.
Despite the widening trade gap, the deficit has not drained foreign exchange reserves or worsened the current account. Even with recent loan repayments of $400 million, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves remain stable at around $14.5 billion. If imports are building productive capacity, the resulting trade deficit becomes an investment in future growth. As industries modernise and productivity improves, exports catch up, just as they have in nearly every fast-developing economy.
Some critics question why exports have not risen despite tariff cuts. But the reform process only began in July 2025. Until the last fiscal year, Pakistan was still raising tariffs. In July 2024, regulatory duties were increased on over 600 items and additional customs duties on more than 2,000. The current tariff rationalisation plan spans five years, aimed at correcting 17 years of flawed policy. Expecting exports to surge within months is unrealistic – structural reforms take time to bear fruit.
Economic history supports this view, and India’s experience offers a striking example. When the country began liberalising in 1992, its imports and exports were nearly balanced at around $20 billion, with a $2 billion trade deficit. By 2024, its merchandise imports had risen to approximately $720 billion, while exports grew to $437 billion, resulting in a $283 billion trade deficit – with China accounting for half. Yet no one accuses Manmohan Singh of steering India towards economic “suicide.” On the contrary, he is praised for revitalising India’s economy after decades of stagnation.
Pakistan’s own experience is equally telling. As the economy opened in the 1990s and accelerated around 2000, both imports and exports grew rapidly. Imports of telecom equipment, machinery, and industrial materials built the foundation for modern services and infrastructure. The trade deficit widened, but instead of staying the course, Pakistan reversed reforms after 2008, slowing growth and weakening competitiveness. The result has been prolonged stagnation.
Another major argument against tariff reform has been the fear of revenue loss. Yet the numbers tell a different story. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) had long projected gains instead of only minimal losses, and they were right. In the first quarter of this fiscal year, customs duty collections rose by 13%, exceeding targets even after duty cuts.
It may be too soon for firm conclusions, but both past experience and current trends suggest that lower tariffs are encouraging legal imports and improving compliance, not eroding revenue.
Pakistan now stands at a crossroads. It can continue to oscillate between protectionist fear and half-hearted reforms, or it can follow the path of countries that embraced openness to accelerate growth. Pakistan is no longer a bystander in global affairs. It is now positioned at the intersection of shifting geopolitical and economic currents.
To seize this moment, Pakistan must lower trade barriers and open its economy to investment and integration with regional and global markets. Opportunities of this scale are rare – if Pakistan lets this one pass, it may not get another for a generation.
To sum up, a trade deficit driven by productive imports is not a loss; it is an investment in the future. As global trade patterns shift and smaller economies integrate with larger blocs, Pakistan must not be left behind. For too long, powerful lobbies have distorted the tariff system through SROs and exemptions, protecting inefficiency at the cost of progress. It is time to level the field, resist rent-seeking pressures, and stay the course on reform. Pakistan’s path to prosperity lies not in retreat or isolation, but in embracing openness and claiming its rightful place in regional and global value chains.
THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF THE STEERING COMMITTEE OVERSEEING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL TARIFF POLICY 202530. HE HAS PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS PAKISTAN’S AMBASSADOR TO THE WTO
Business
K-beauty: From social media trend to economic powerhouse
Suranjana TewariAsia Business Correspondent, Seoul, South Korea
Who would have thought serums infused with snail mucin – the sticky substance they secrete – would become a part of skincare routines around the world?
Well, it’s happened – and the gooey elasticity is key, according to a viral TikTok challenge promoting the serum. It made its manufacturer, the small South Korean label CosRX, go global. It is now owned by Amorepacific, the country’s biggest cosmetics company.
The rapid spread of that sticky serum tells you just how wildly successful K-beauty has become. Fuelled by viral content and trends, it is one of the biggest industries in South Korea, where the pressure to look almost flawless has always been huge in a highly competitive society.
The domestic market alone was valued at about $13bn (£9.6bn) in 2024, with sales of some products expected to grow at double-digit rates. And the rest of the world is just as obsessed with K-beauty – which is perhaps unsurprising given it’s part of the Hallyu, or Korean Wave, which has made K-Pop and K-dramas a global phenomenon.
K-beauty brands now occupy whole sections at global retailers – from Sephora to Boots to Walmart. In the first half of 2025, South Korea overtook France, the birthplace of modern cosmetics, to become the world’s second-largest exporter of beauty products, after the United States.
Search for “Korean skincare” on TikTok, Instagram or YouTube and you’ll be met with a deluge of content from influencers, some of whom have hundreds of millions of followers. They dissect ingredient lists, film unboxings and record “Get Ready With Me” videos built around ideas such as “glass skin”, sheet masks and, of course, snail mucin.
“There are so many products and brands, and a lot of times you’re exposed to millions of them as a consumer – it’s highly saturated and competitive,” said Liah Yoo, a beauty influencer and founder of the US-based K-beauty brand Krave Beauty.
The formula behind the rise
At the heart of K-beauty’s rise is a relentless pace of innovation. New formulations appear every few months, often designed to spark the next online obsession.
Ten-step skincare routines, overnight “water sleeping masks” and headline-grabbing ingredients such as salmon sperm were once viewed as niche or unappealing. Today, many are staples in bathroom cabinets from London to Los Angeles.
Social media has been central to this shift. Products launched in Seoul are on TikTok and Instagram feeds in the US, UK, India and Australia instantly.
There are however growing concerns about the social impact of beauty ideals, particularly on young people. Experts warn that constant exposure to skincare content online can fuel anxiety and excessive spending.
Getty Images“We are fully aware that excessive use or misuse of social media can lead to backlash,” said Kim Seung-hwan, Amorepacific’s chief executive, adding that brands must strike a careful balance in how they use online platforms.
The challenge will only grow as the industry expands to include Western multinationals.
L’Oréal acquired a South Korean conglomerate which included the brand Dr.G in late 2024, saying the deal would help meet rising demand for effective yet affordable K-beauty products.
Other global firms are increasingly incorporating popular ingredients associated with Korean brands such as centella asiatica and rice water into their own lines.
Many of South Korea’s large beauty brands are part of the country’s powerful conglomerates, or chaebols.
Amorepacific accounts for roughly half of the domestic market. Its portfolio ranges from premium brands such as Sulwhasoo to global mass-market names like Laneige, environmentally focused labels such as Innisfree, and fast-growing independent brands. But even as a chaebol, Amorepacific says it looks to smaller independent brands for fresh ideas.
Getty Images“Through the founder and the CosRX team, we were able to learn their approach to formula innovation and how to respond more quickly to consumer needs,” Mr Kim from Amorepacific said. “These lessons have since been integrated into our wider organisation.”
In 2024, Amorepacific sold about $6.2bn of products. LG Household & Health Care, another major conglomerate, recorded sales of $4.1bn. The scale of the industry continues to show up in South Korea’s export figures too.
Exports rose 15% in the first half of 2025 to a record $5.5bn, largely driven by strong sales in the US and Europe, putting the country on track to surpass $10bn in annual beauty exports.
For Mr Kim, all customers are not the same.
“In countries like Japan, Korea and China, there is more interest in things like flawless skin. In Europe fragrance is the main category, and in the US make-up is more popular,” he said.
“Things are changing though,” he added, pointing to rising interest among Western consumers in youthful-looking skin and sun protection, particularly as awareness of climate change and UV exposure grows.
Keeping up with the competition
To cater to the ever-growing demand, South Korea’s 30,000 or so beauty brands rely on a highly sophisticated industrial ecosystem.
They are supported by original development manufacturers, or ODMs, which handle research, formulation and production for thousands of labels.
Getty ImagesEven large conglomerates outsource some product lines, while smaller names depend heavily on ODMs to move quickly and keep costs down.
Cosmax, one of the largest manufacturers, supplies products to about 4,500 brands from factories across South Korea, China, the US and South East Asia.
In 2024, it accounted for just over a quarter of South Korea’s $10bn worth of cosmetics exports.
This allows products to move from being conceptualised to being sold in as little as six months – the process that can take one to three years for many Western brands.
Automation helps keep costs down. The BBC visited a sprawling Amorepacific factory outside South Korea’s capital Seoul, where a handful of workers oversaw fully automated production lines bottling Laneige’s Water Sleeping Mask and CosRX’s Vitamin C 23 Serum.
Speed, however, comes at a cost. Intense competition has contributed to thin profit margins and high rates of business failures. According to government data, more than 8,800 cosmetics brands have gone out of business in recent years.
“South Korea has great infrastructure that can help you create a brand quickly, but growing a successful brand is another story,” said Ms Yoo. “It comes down to your brand ethos, your identity, and how different your products are from anything else on the market.”
As competition intensifies, brands face growing pressure to be more transparent, and to focus on ingredients and the effectiveness of their products rather than celebrity endorsements.
“We’re not just buying from the big brands now. We’re actually talking about ingredients, where it’s sourced, what it does,” said Mia Chen, a prominent beauty influencer. “A lot of Korean skincare derives from natural ingredients, and we all want that on our skin without side effects.”
Getty ImagesThe industry is also being shaped by its changing market.
China is no longer the biggest overseas buyer as its own brands erode the dominance once enjoyed by Japanese and Korean imports.
For the first time in 80 years, Amorepacific’s North America business overtook the one in China last year, Mr Kim said, adding that the firm also expects growth in Japan, Europe, India and the Middle East.
The US remains a key market, importing more beauty products from South Korea than anywhere else. But President Donald Trump’s 15% tariffs on Korean imports have sparked some uncertainty.
Olive Young, South Korea’s biggest cosmetics retailer which plans to open its first store in the US this year, imposed a 15% customs duty on American orders. Amorepacific said it would consider price increases only on a case-by-case basis, based on discussions with retail partners such as Sephora and Walmart.
But the firms have the backing of the South Korean government, which designated K-beauty a strategic national asset in December, promising to support manufacturing and exports.
It is a telling vote of confidence in an industry that kicked off as a viral trend and is now an economic force.
Additional reporting by Jaltson Akkanath Chummar and Juna Moon
Business
NARC opens speed breeding units for wheat and pulses | The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD:
Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain on Friday inaugurated speed breeding facilities for wheat and pulses at the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), Islamabad, a move aimed at accelerating crop improvement and addressing food security challenges, according to an official statement.
The speed breeding technology enables crops to be grown under tightly controlled environmental conditions, significantly shortening breeding cycles. By extending photoperiods to up to 22 hours using specialised LED lighting and maintaining optimal temperature and humidity, wheat can complete its life cycle in six to eight weeks. This allows five to six generations to be produced in a single year, reducing the conventional varietal development timeline of around 14 years by nearly half.
The wheat speed breeding facility has been established at NARC’s Crop Sciences Institute under the PSDP-funded Wheat Productivity Enhancement Project. Equipped with controlled glasshouse chambers, LED grow lighting systems and environmental controls, the facility has already developed more than 3,000 new wheat lines, which are currently undergoing field yield trials. It has also been used to train scientists, breeders and students, with protocols being adapted for other crops.
Pakistan’s first dedicated pulses speed breeding facility was also inaugurated under the PSDP Pulses Project. Pulses are a major source of affordable protein and contribute to soil health through biological nitrogen fixation, but productivity gains have remained limited due to long breeding cycles and increasing climate and disease risks. The new facility enables four to six generations per year in crops such as chickpea, lentil, mung bean and mash through controlled growth chambers and adjustable lighting. According to the statement, work is under way on advanced chickpea breeding lines and multiple segregating generations, with improved phenotyping under uniform conditions.
Chairman Pakistan Agricultural Research Council Dr Syed Murtaza Hassan Andrabi said the adoption of advanced breeding technologies was essential for achieving faster genetic gains and improving crop resilience. He said the facilities reflected efforts to modernise agricultural research and strengthen collaboration with national and international institutions.
Hussain also inaugurated an Intelligent IoT-Based Smart Glasshouse at NIGAB. Spread over 2,640 square feet, the facility integrates IoT sensors, artificial intelligence, programmable control systems, and data analytics to support genome-assisted breeding, stress biology research and advanced phenotyping. It is currently being used for heat stress screening, rapid advancement of wheat generations, aquaponics-based cultivation and the acclimatisation of gene-edited plants.
Speaking at the occasion, Hussain remarked that the Intelligent Smart Glasshouse represents a future-ready national asset that bridges genomics, digital agriculture, and sustainable food production.
He appreciated the efforts of scientists and researchers involved in developing these facilities and reaffirmed the government’s support for scaling such initiatives, strengthening collaboration with national and international research organisations, and fostering publicprivate partnerships for sustainable varietal development.
Business
UK hits ‘peak Costa’ as soaring prices see coffee chain’s losses double
Losses at Costa Coffee have more than doubled to £13.5m for 2024 as it struggles to compete with cheaper rivals.
The new financial filings from Companies House show they are up on £5.8m operating losses of the previous year and are in contrast to the chain’s fortunes before the Covid pandemic, when Costa was frequently posting annual profits of up to £100m per year.
Last year, it was widely reported that parent company Coca-Cola was seeking to sell the Costa Coffee brand, little more than seven years after buying it for almost £4bn. A sale this year is not expected to fetch more than £2bn, though recent reports have suggested there are concerns over the price of a deal with preferred bidder, TDR Capital.
Costa has said the most recent results were down to higher competition from other coffee house brands and lower footfall on high streets.
Additionally, the rising cost of coffee beans and other inflationary cost pressures on operating expenses had further reduced the profitability of the business across the year.
One analyst, Clive Black of Shore Capital, said: “It has perhaps reached the peak of its extent in the UK, ‘peak Costa’ if you like, which makes it more exposed than most to competitive challenges.”
Additionally, Black pointed out that a “whole plethora of independent, often artisanal players offering a better experience, a better ambience, a better story, so less corporate and much better food” was also a big factor for the legacy chain to contend with.
Analysis by the Telegraph suggested the average price of coffee has risen around 80p for consumers since 2022, to above £4 – but in many places it can be £5 or more.
Last autumn, Costa ran a limited-time deal in partnership with Co-op shops, where drinks were available for £1.
A Costa statement said: “Costa Coffee delivered like-for-like revenue growth in 2024 and demonstrated strong operational resilience despite inflationary headwinds. We continue to invest in our UK estate and the expansion of the Costa Coffee brand globally. These aggregated results are reported as part of The Coca-Cola Company.
“Since being acquired by The Coca-Cola Company in 2019, Costa Coffee has delivered continued revenue growth and is part of Coca-Cola’s strategy to offer a broad range of beverages for every occasion.”
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