Politics
Trump convinced Netanyahu to take a deal. Can he keep him onboard?
US President Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed peacemaker who has campaigned for a Nobel Prize, finally got a camera-ready diplomatic victory on Monday as world leaders flew to Egypt for the signing of the ceasefire and hostage-release deal he brokered between Israel and Hamas.
But if lasting peace is to take root, analysts and diplomats say, Trump will have to maintain pressure on the man whose support he’ll need in the next phases of his plan: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
US presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden have found the strong-willed Israeli leader difficult to work with, and even Trump administration officials have been frustrated by some Israeli military strikes they see as undermining US policy.
But this month Trump managed to push Netanyahu into accepting his framework for a broader peace deal while persuading other Middle Eastern countries to convince Hamas to return all the Israeli hostages, its key leverage in the war.
The work could get harder from here, however.
Israel and Hamas remain sharply divided over many aspects of Trump’s 20-point plan and, as Israel prepares for next year’s elections, Netanyahu’s approach may shift as he attempts to keep his right-wing coalition together.
“We’re entering a political year where everything is related to campaigns, and Netanyahu’s calculations may flip from caving to pressure to trying to ensure his political survival,” said Nimrod Goren, the president of Mitvim, an Israeli foreign policy think tank.
The strength of Trump’s peace plan, said the diplomats and analysts, is also its weakness.
The document at the heart of the deal leaves much undefined, and neither side actually agreed to the fine print of each term. That vagueness was key to getting both sides to sign on, but it also means some of the most difficult diplomatic work is just beginning.
Among the potential sticking points of Trump’s peace plan is an agreement that Hamas disarm and play no role in Gaza’s future administration. While Hamas agreed to Trump’s plan generally, the group’s official response made no mention of those specific terms, and Hamas leaders have indicated that they do in fact see a role for themselves in governing a post-war Gaza.
“There are any number of ways this could go sideways,” said Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official.
“It’s hard to remember an international agreement that left so much to be worked out later.”
The Israeli embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A senior US official suggested that Trump had gained influence with Netanyahu in part by strongly supporting Israel on other important matters.
Trump’s first administration formally recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the disputed Golan Heights as part of the country, two things long sought by the Israeli government.
“One thing President Trump’s done with Israel … is that he’s not trying to be a middle-of-the-roader,” the US official said. “He’s basically stood shoulder to shoulder with Israel 100%. But because of that, he’s been able to help guide them in the right direction.”
A sterner Trump
Trump has a mixed record when it comes to applying political pressure on Netanyahu.
In July, Israel bombed the Syrian defense ministry in Damascus even as the US had made a point of expanding ties with the new Syrian government. The US president gave political cover in Gaza to Netanyahu for months amid mounting humanitarian concerns among European and Arab allies.
But in recent weeks, a sterner Trump has emerged. He forced Netanyahu, opens new tab to call the leader of Qatar to apologise after a failed bombing raid targeting Hamas negotiators in that country in September. Ultimately, he muscled Netanyahu into signing onto his 20-point plan despite the Israeli leader’s misgivings.
At the moment, said Alterman, the Middle East expert, Trump can likely exert leverage over Netanyahu given the US president’s significant popularity in Israel.
“Trump’s greatest leverage is he’s much more politically popular in Israel than Netanyahu,” Alterman said, “and he can either support Netanyahu’s political future or sabotage it.”
At the speech before the Israeli parliament on Monday, Trump playfully poked at the Israeli leader in ways that indicated he did not feel the need to treat Netanyahu with special deference.
“Well, see, now you can be a little bit nicer, Bibi, because you’re not at war anymore,” Trump said to laughs.
But next year’s elections could change Netanyahu’s political calculations in ways that are difficult to predict.
Supporters of right-wing politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich could in theory threaten Netanyahu’s governing coalition if they are sufficiently angered by the decision to halt military operations against Hamas.
Analysts warn that foot-dragging by the Palestinian group over disarming could lead right-wing elements of the coalition to pressure Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza, effectively scuttling Trump’s deal.
“We are troubled with the fact that Hamas still, today, declares it will stay in power in Gaza,” Simcha Rothman, a member of the Religious Zionism party and of Netanyahu’s governing coalition, told Reuters on Monday.
“We are not happy with any deal that is not total surrender of Hamas … We will not accept any partial victory.”
Another issue that could prove an irritant: a provision in the peace plan that admits the possibility of a future Palestinian state, which analysts say most Israelis would struggle to accept after Hamas’ cross-border attack of October 7, 2023.
Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel, said that if government and opposition politicians campaign heavily against the creation of such a state, it could limit the willingness of Arab countries to push Hamas to fulfill its obligations under Trump’s deal.
“That was a very important inclusion to get the support of the Arab states to do their part,” Shapiro said.
“If the political discourse is a full-on rejection of a Palestinian state for all time, I think that could color the enthusiasm of the Arab parties to play the parts that they need to play.”
- Cairo “studying” request for Sisi to join board, says FM.
- Canadian PM intends to accept Trump’s invitation: aide.
- Argentine president says it will be an ‘honour’ to join initiative.
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace” for postwar Gaza began to take shape Saturday, with the leaders of Egypt, Turkey, Argentina and Canada asked to join.
The announcements from those leaders came after the US president named his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, former British prime minister Tony Blair, and senior negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to the panel.
Trump had already declared himself the chair of the body, as he promotes a controversial vision of economic development in the Palestinian territory, which lies in rubble after two-plus years of relentless Israeli bombardment.
The moves came after a Palestinian committee of technocrats meant to govern Gaza held its first meeting in Cairo which was attended by Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who has partnered with Witkoff for months on the issue.
In Canada, a senior aide to Prime Minister Mark Carney said he intended to accept Trump’s invitation, while in Turkey, a spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had been asked to become a “founding member” of the board.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Cairo was “studying” a request for President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to join.
Sharing an image of the invitation letter, Argentine President Javier Milei wrote on X that it would be “an honour” to participate in the initiative.
In a statement sent to AFP, Blair said: “I thank President Trump for his leadership in establishing the Board of Peace and am honoured to be appointed to its Executive Board.”
Blair is a controversial figure in the Middle East because of his role in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Trump himself said last year that he wanted to make sure Blair was an “acceptable choice to everybody.”
Blair spent years focused on the Israeli-Palestinian issue as representative of the “Middle East Quartet” – the United Nations, European Union, United States and Russia – after leaving Downing Street in 2007.
The White House said the Board of Peace will take on issues such as “governance capacity-building, regional relations, reconstruction, investment attraction, large-scale funding and capital mobilisation.”
The other members of the board so far are World Bank President Ajay Banga, an Indian-born American businessman; billionaire US financier Marc Rowan; and Robert Gabriel, a loyal Trump aide who serves on the US National Security Council.
Trump has created a second “Gaza executive board” that appears designed to have a more advisory role.
It was not immediately clear which world leaders were asked to be on each board.
The White House, which said Friday that additional members would be named to both entities, did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Israel strikes
Washington has said the Gaza plan had gone on to a second phase – from implementing the ceasefire to disarming Hamas, whose October 2023 attack on Israel prompted the massive Israeli offensive.
On Friday, Trump named US Major General Jasper Jeffers to head the International Stabilization Force, which will be tasked with providing security in Gaza and training a new police force to succeed Hamas.
Jeffers, from special operations in US Central Command, in late 2024 was put in charge of monitoring a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which has continued periodic strikes aimed at Hezbollah.
Gaza native and former Palestinian Authority deputy minister Ali Shaath was earlier tapped to head the governing committee.
Trump, a real estate developer, has previously mused about turning devastated Gaza into a Riviera-style area of resorts, although he has backed away from calls to forcibly displace the population.
- Private carrier admits misjudgement, planning gaps.
- Regulator orders IndiGo to relieve senior office bearers.
- Operational meltdown linked to new policy of pilot rest.
India’s civil aviation regulator on Saturday imposed a fine of $2.45 million on IndiGo, the country’s biggest airline, for poor roster planning that led to large-scale flight cancellations in December.
Airports across India were thrown into disarray late last year, with the private carrier admitting “misjudgement and planning gaps” in adapting to a new policy of pilot rest.
Over 4,000 mostly domestic flights were either cancelled or delayed for over a week across the country, stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers.
The operational meltdown came even though IndiGo had two years to prepare for the new rules aimed at giving pilots more rest periods in between flights to enhance passenger safety.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said it was levying the penalty for several lapses, including “failure to strike (a) balance between commercial imperatives and crew members’ ability to work effectively”.
The regulator ordered IndiGo to relieve its senior vice president of its operations control centre of his responsibilities, according to a statement released on Saturday.
It also issued warnings to senior officials at the company, including CEO Pieter Elbers “for inadequate overall oversight of flight operations and crisis management”.
There was no immediate response from IndiGo to the fine.
IndiGo, which commands 60% of India’s domestic market, operates more than 2,000 flights a day.
The crisis was one of the biggest challenges faced by the no-frills airline that has built its reputation on punctuality.
India is one of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets. In November 2024, IndiGo reached a daily level of 500,000 passengers for the first time.
- Protesters chant, “Greenland is not for sale.”
- Over “20,000 people” attend protest in Copenhagen.
- Trump says Greenland vital to US security.
COPENHAGEN: Protesters in Denmark and Greenland demonstrated on Saturday against President Donald Trump’s demand that the Arctic island be ceded to the US and called for it to be left to determine its own future.
Trump says Greenland is vital to US security because of its strategic location and large mineraldeposits, and has not ruled out using force to take it. European nations this week sent military personnel to the island at Denmark’s request.
In Copenhagen, demonstrators chanted “Greenland is not for sale” and held up slogans such as “No means No” and “Hands off Greenland” alongside the territory’s red-and-white flag as they marched to the US embassy.
Some wore red baseball caps resembling the “Make America Great Again” caps of Trump supporters, but with the slogan “Make America Go Away”.
In Greenland’s capital Nuuk, hundreds of protesters led by Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen carried flags and similar banners as they headed for the US consulate.
They passed a newly built block where Washington plans to move its consulate – currently a red wooden building with four staff.
Organisers estimated over 20,000 people attended the protest in Copenhagen – akin to the entire population of Nuuk – though police did not provide an official figure. Other protests were held across Denmark.
“I am very grateful for the huge support we as Greenlanders receive … we are also sending a message to the world that you all must wake up,” said Julie Rademacher, chair of Uagut, an organisation for Greenlanders in Denmark.
Trump triggers diplomatic rift
Trump’s repeated statements about the island have triggered a diplomatic crisis between the US and Denmark, both founding members of the NATO military alliance, and have been widely condemned in Europe.
The territory of 57,000 people, governed for centuries from Copenhagen, has carved out significant autonomy since 1979 but remains part of Denmark, which controls defence and foreign policy, and funds much of the administration.
Some 17,000 Greenlanders live in Denmark, according to Danish authorities.
All five parties elected to Greenland’s parliament ultimately favour independence, but they disagree on the timing and have recently said they would rather remain part of Denmark than join the US
Only 17% of Americans approve of Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland, and large majorities of Democrats and Republicans oppose using military force to annex it, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Trump called the poll “fake”.
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