The Nobel literature prize to be announced on Thursday is likely to go to a Western male author this year, experts predict, after South Korea’s Han Kang last year became the first Asian woman to win.

Awarding the prize to another woman this year would make history: it has never gone to a woman two years in a row, and women are vastly under-represented among its laureates — just 18 out of 121 since it was first awarded in 1901.

But literary critics in Stockholm told AFP they therefore expect a Western man to get the nod this year, citing Australia’s Gerald Murnane, Romania’s Mircea Cartarescu, Hungary’s Laszlo Krasznahorkai and Peter Nadas as possibilities, as well as Swiss postmodernist Christian Kracht.

Murnane and Krasznahorkai meanwhile, have the lowest odds on betting sites, along with India’s Amitav Ghosh, whose name sailed up just two days before the announcement.

The 18-member Swedish Academy that awards the prize insists it does not take gender, nationality, or language into consideration.

But “even if they say that they don’t think in terms of representation, you can still look at the list (of past laureates) and see that it’s kind of ‘OK, this year was a European, now we can look a little further afield. And now we go back to Europe. Last year was a woman, let’s choose a man this year’,” Sveriges Radio culture critic Lina Kalmteg told AFP.

After a #MeToo scandal that rocked the Academy in 2018, every other laureate has been a woman, suggesting an effort to right past wrongs and improve the gender imbalance.

‘Bizarre masterpiece’

Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Swedish paper of reference Dagens Nyheter, told AFP he thought this year’s winner would be a man “from the Anglo-Saxon, German or French-language world”.

Christian Kracht, a 58-year-old German-language postmodernist author who writes about pop culture and consumerism, is a favourite in literary circles, he said.

At this year’s Gothenburg Book Fair, held annually a few weeks before the Nobel announcement, “many members of the Swedish Academy were there, sitting in the front row during his event”, Wiman said.

“And that is usually a sure sign,” he said, adding that the same thing happened when Austrian playwright Elfriede Jelinek won the prize in 2004.

Another writer getting a lot of attention in the run-up this year is Australia’s Gerald Murnane.

Born in 1939 in Melbourne, his work draws heavily on his own life experiences.

His novel “The Plains” (1982) delves into Australian landowners’ culture, described by the New Yorker as a “bizarre masterpiece” that feels more like a dream than a book.

“The question is whether he’ll answer the phone (when the Academy calls), I don’t know if he even has one,” joked Josefin de Gregorio, literary critic at Sweden’s other main daily Svenska Dagbladet.

“He’s never left Australia. He lives in the countryside, he doesn’t make himself very accessible,” she said.

“I hope he wins, I want more people to discover his wonderful work,” de Gregorio said.

Australian Aboriginal writer Alexis Wright has also been mentioned.

‘Unthinkable’

Other names that regularly make the rounds are Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, Canada’s Anne Carson, Chilean’s Raul Zurita, and Argentina’s Cesar Aira.

The last South American to win was Peru’s Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010, and the region could be overdue, Kalmteg told AFP.

She also mentioned Mexican authors Cristina Rivera Garza and Fernanda Melchor.

With no public shortlist and the prize committee’s deliberations sealed for 50 years, it is always difficult to predict which way the Academy is leaning.

It has a penchant for shining a spotlight on writers relatively unknown to a wider public, with Wiman noting that it was previously known for being “openly elitist, artistically”.

“Authors like Han Kang would have been unthinkable five or six years ago,” he said, noting that she was well-established internationally and only 53, while the Academy previously tended to honour older men.

The 2025 winner, who will take home a $1.2 million cheque, will be announced on Thursday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).

Israel and Hamas have agreed on  to the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza, a ceasefire and hostage deal that could be a first step toward ending a bloody two-year-old war that has roiled the Middle East.

Here are some details of what is known and not known so far:

20-point framework

The agreement on the initial stage of Trump’s 20-point framework resulted from indirect talks in Egypt, just a day after the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas’s attack on Israel.

Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas had signed off on the first phase of the plan and this would bring the release of all hostages, alive and dead, “very soon” and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the so-called yellow line in Gaza.

According to a senior Israeli security source, that is a boundary for an initial Israeli pullback under the Trump plan.

Hamas confirmed it had reached an agreement to end the war, that includes an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a hostage-prisoner exchange, but the group called on Trump and guarantor states to ensure Israel fully implements the ceasefire.

Key unknowns

Despite the hopes raised for ending the war, crucial details are yet to be spelled out.

These include the timing, a post-war administration for the Gaza Strip and the fate of Hamas.

There is no clear indication who will rule Gaza when the war ends. Netanyahu, Trump, Western and Arab states have ruled out a role for Hamas, which has run Gaza 2007.

Trump’s original 20-point plan envisions a role for the Palestinian Authority but only after it has undergone major reforms.

What’s next?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government on Thursday to approve the agreement.

A Hamas source said the living hostages would be handed over within 72 hours of the Israeli government approving the deal. Israel said the hostage release was expected to begin on Saturday. Of the 48 hostages, 20 are still thought to be alive.

A senior White House official said once Israel approves the deal it has to withdraw to the agreed line, which should take under 24 hours, after which the 72-hour clock would begin. The White House expects the hostages will begin getting released on Monday.

Hamas said earlier on Wednesday it had handed over its lists of the hostages it held and the Palestinian prisoners held by Israel that it wanted to be exchanged.

Trump is expected to travel to Egypt in the coming days as the White House said he was considering going to the region on Friday. Netanyahu has invited Trump to address Israel’s parliament and Trump told Axios he would be willing to do that.

The next phase of Trump’s plan calls for an international body, called the “Board of Peace,” to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration. It is to be led by Trump and include former British PM Tony Blair.

Risks

Successful completion of the deal would mark the biggest foreign policy achievement so far for Trump, who took office in January promising to quickly end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, only to find that they were more difficult to resolve than he had hoped.

Hamas has so far refused to discuss Israel’s demand that the group give up its arms. A Palestinian source said Hamas would reject this as long as Israeli troops occupy Palestinian land.

Two sources familiar with the talks confirmed that sticking points included the mechanism for the Israeli withdrawal, with Hamas seeking a clear timeline linked to the release of hostages and guarantees of a complete pullout by Israeli forces.

Within Gaza, Israel has dialled down its military campaign at Trump’s behest, but it has not halted strikes altogether.

Arab countries which back the plan say it must lead to eventual independence for a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu says will never happen.

Hamas has said it would relinquish Gaza governance only to a Palestinian technocrat government supervised by the Palestinian Authority and backed by Arab and Muslim countries. It rejects any role for Blair or foreign rule of Gaza.

The list of Palestinians that Hamas wants freed was expected to include some of the most prominent prisoners ever jailed by Israel, whose release had been off limits in previous ceasefires.

According to a Palestinian source close to the talks, the list includes Marwan al-Barghouti, a leader of the Fatah movement, and Ahmed Saadat, head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Both are serving multiple life sentences.

• New Delhi deepens engagement with Taliban government.
• Muttaqi set to hold talks with Indian counterpart Jaishankar.
• “India not in hurry to provide diplomatic recognition to Taliban”.

Afghanistan’s UN-sanctioned foreign minister arrived in India on Thursday, the first visit by a top Taliban leader since they returned to power in 2021 following the withdrawal of US-led forces.

Amir Khan Muttaqi’s trip — made possible after the UN Security Council granted him a travel waiver — is expected to be closely watched by Pakistan, a neighbour to both India and Afghanistan and arch-rival for the former, as New Delhi deepens its engagement with the Taliban government.

“We look forward to engaging discussions with him on bilateral relations and regional issues,” Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said in a statement, offering Muttaqi a “warm welcome”.

Muttaqi, who met with India’s top career diplomat Vikram Misri in January in Dubai, is set to hold talks with Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

Neither side has disclosed the agenda, but analysts say trade and security are likely to be at the forefront — though India is unlikely, for now, to extend formal recognition to the Taliban government.

“New Delhi is eager to establish its influence in Kabul… and not be left behind by its arch-rivals, China and Pakistan,” International Crisis Group analyst Praveen Donthi told AFP.

Muttaqi’s visit follows meetings in Russia — the only country so far to have officially recognised the Taliban administration.

But while the Taliban are “seeking diplomatic recognition and legitimacy”, Donthi said, others noted that was some way off.

“India is not in a hurry to provide diplomatic recognition to the Taliban,” Rakesh Sood, India’s former ambassador to Kabul, told AFP.

India has long hosted tens of thousands of Afghans, many who fled the country after the Taliban returned to power.

Afghanistan’s embassy in New Delhi shut in 2023, although consulates in Mumbai and Hyderabad still operate limited services.

India says its mission in Kabul is limited to coordinating humanitarian aid.

‘Drive a wedge’

The Taliban’s own interpretation of Islamic law may appear an unlikely match for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, but India has sought to seize the opening.

Diplomatic dynamics in South Asia are driven by long-running distrust between India and Pakistan, with New Delhi seeking to exploit divisions between Islamabad and Kabul.

“Kabul will be walking the tightrope between Islamabad and New Delhi, with the latter trying to get the most from the engagement without offering formal recognition,” Donthi added.

Pakistani analyst Wahed Faqiri called Muttaqi’s visit a “remarkable development”, coming as “tension between the Taliban and Pakistan is high”.

Islamabad accuses neighbouring Afghanistan of failing to expel militants using Afghan territory to launch attacks on Pakistan, an accusation that authorities in Kabul deny.

Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan fought a brief but deadly clash in May, their worst confrontation in decades.

“The visit would certainly make Pakistan angrier and more suspicious,” Faqiri said.

“Moreover, it would strengthen India’s position in Afghanistan and India would try to drive a wedge between Taliban and Pakistan.”