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Turkiye year-end review 2025: Beneficiary in turmoil

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Turkiye year-end review 2025: Beneficiary in turmoil



In 2024, Turkiye had a trade worth $32.6 billion with the US, forming roughly 6 per cent of total Turkish exports. In June 2025, Turkiye achieved a negative trade balance with the US, with Turkish exports to the US totalling $1.2 billion and imports reaching $1.5 billion. Currently, bilateral trade between both NATO members is worth approximately $45 billion including services, and going forward, a goal of $100 billion has been set. The targeted $100 billion figure for bilateral trade points to new opportunities arising from geopolitical developments. Turkiye’s main exports to the US include vehicles, automotive parts, machinery, textiles & apparel, iron and steel products and mineral fuels such as petroleum.

International Trade

In the first eight months of 2025, exports to the EU, which accounts for 40.8 per cent of the Turkish textile industry’s market share, fell by 0.4 per cent to $3.09 billion y-o-y. Exports to the former eastern bloc countries, which ranked third, fell by 12.3 per cent. Europe accounts for over 70 per cent of Turkiye’s garment exports, thanks to the Customs Union. Turkiye provides fast overland shipping across Europe too. The country group with the highest export growth for the Turkish textile sector was Asia and Oceania. The increase rate, which was 26 per cent in value terms, rose to 40.5 per cent in unit terms. Meanwhile, exports to African countries rose by 19 per cent from $858.5 million to $1.02 billion, with growth rate being 24 per cent in unit terms. During this period, the topmost textile export destinations were the United States, Germany, and Italy, in that order. Over a period of 12 months, from September 2024 to August 2025, there was a 5.5 per cent decline in capacity utilisation rates in the textile industry.

Turkiye–US trade reached about $45 billion, with textiles and apparel emerging as a strategic opportunity amid relatively moderate US tariffs.
Despite export pressures in the EU and rising costs at home, Turkiye gained competitiveness against higher-tariff rivals in the US.
Carpets, in particular, stand out as a major advantage, supporting a cautiously positive export outlook.

The US Market

The US is an important export destination for Turkiye which can logistically deliver by ship to the US in under three weeks. Turkish textile & apparel exports’ current share of the US market remains under 3 per cent. In 2023, Turkiye textile exports reached $2.68 billion, and in 2024, the US ranked second in Turkiye’s textile and raw materials exports with a 6.8 per cent share. In early 2025, Turkish textiles exports rose 14 per cent y-o-y, and the US ranked third with 6 per cent share after Italy and Germany. Historically, the US was a significant market for Turkish garments until the expiration of the WTO’s Multi-Fibre Agreement in 2005, which led to a sharp drop in Turkish exports due to increased competition from Asia. Now, with around 40 per cent of the Turkish garment industry prepared to export to the US, encouraged by relatively lower tariffs, there is a renewed ambition to capture more of the market.

Textile & Apparel Sector

The textiles & apparel sector, one of Turkiye’s most globally competitive industries, employs 27.8 per cent of the country’s manufacturing labour force and contributes 15.2 per cent of manufacturing output. The country ranked world’s seventh-largest exporter of textile and ready-to-wear products last year. Within clothing exports, knitted apparel and accessories, such as T-shirts, pullovers, and similar items, dominate. This segment accounts for over half of the sector’s total value.

In a year burdened by tariff hikes, specifically between January–August 2025, Turkiye’s textile and apparel exports dropped from $18 billion to $17.2 billion, declining 4.4 per cent y-o-y. In this, textile and raw materials maintained a stable performance with a 0.8 per cent increase, reaching around $7.5 billion, while apparel and garment exports fell 8 per cent, from $10.5 billion to $9.7 billion. During this period, textiles and apparel accounted for 9.7 per cent of Turkiye’s total exports of $178.1 billion.

Moderate Tariff

On April 2, US imposed a minimum basic tariff of 10 per cent on all countries, including Turkiye, with its biggest competitors in the textile sector China, India, and Vietnam, subjected to higher tariffs of 34 per cent, 26 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively. However, in a notable shift, on April 9, a 90-day pause on tariff hikes for all countries except China was announced. While China’s tariffs were sharply increased to 125 per cent, Turkiye, being a non-retaliatory trade partner through July 2025, continued with the 10 per cent blanket tariff. Just ahead of August 1 deadline, tariff of Turkiye’s imports was raised to 15 per cent, described as moderate. The 15 per cent tariff reflected Turkiye’s ‘white list’ status, stemming from balanced bilateral trade and mutual investments with the US. The new tariff took effect on August 7.

The Turkish Ministry of Trade described 15 per cent duty as a positive differentiation despite the flagship export categories of textiles, apparel and carpets getting exposed to an increased risk of margin compression. On August 29, the US additionally eliminated the $800 de minimis threshold for imports, impacting Turkish e-commerce segment, especially D2C models. The D2C operators were made to build duties and taxes directly into checkout, rethink pricing and delivery strategies, and explore US-based logistics solutions such as warehouses and subsidiaries.

In another development, Turkiye terminated additional tariffs, imposed in 2018, on the US imports ranging from passenger cars to fruits. The terminated tariffs were imposed in retaliation for the US tariffs put during the first term of Trump in office.

Tariff Impact – a Mixed Bag

Turkiye previously exported to the US with very low tariff rates, including zero per cent for some goods. So, even a 10 per cent rate in April still made Turkiye’s exports to the US more expensive. Tariff on Turkish textiles rose from 4.92 per cent to 14.92 per cent. Increasing the tariff rate from 10 per cent to 15 per cent in August only intensified the impact. Additionally, domestic challenges, including rising input costs, inflationary pressures, and a volatile exchange rate, further impacted exporters’ profit margins. Exporters also remained wary of the indirect fallout, particularly through supply chains linked to the EU, underscoring the complex position the country occupied in a rapidly shifting global trade order. They struggled to compete against both lower-tariff competitors and US domestic producers. The textile sector also contended with structural challenges, including dependency on imported raw materials.

At the same time, it created some upsides. Since tariff was much lower than many textile-exporting nations, it enhanced Turkiye’s competitiveness in the US market, particularly in high-value segments of premium fabrics, apparel, and home textiles. Many Turkish officials and economists saw potential strategic gains amid the disruption. Turkiye’s relatively moderate rate offered a comparative advantage in select export sectors and attracted foreign manufacturers seeking more favourable trade conditions.

Brands Shifted Base

Due to political and economic developments in Turkiye, the increase in dollar exchange rate and costs put Turkiye at a disadvantage in production. This made major apparel brands shift their focus to far eastern countries. In September, outdoor clothing and gear brand The North Face shifted much of its production from Turkiye to Vietnam and Bangladesh due to rising prices. The US-based company decided to cut back orders by 80 per cent from Gelisim Tekstil, brand’s supplier for more than a decade. Out of 4 million units, only 400,000–500,000 remained with Turkiye. Consequently, Gelisim Tekstil, The North Face’s second-largest manufacturer worldwide and its largest in the EU, will see orders shrinking from €30 ($34.75) million to just €4–5 million. Not only the far east, but even Africa also emerged as a major competitor. A Turkish product costing €5.10 could be procured from Kenya for €2.80, attracting brands to outsource production there under the umbrella of social responsibility projects. While China is often seen as major rival for Turkiye, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia and Vietnam emerged even more formidable rivals.

Advantage Carpets

In 2024, the products with the highest trade surplus with the US included carpets and other textile floor coverings, with a valuation of $820 million. This puts Turkish carpets in a special league of products exported to the US. With US imposing 50 per cent tariff on Indian carpets, compared with 15 per cent on Turkish exports, carpet producers in Turkiye stand to gain. Steep tariff disparity between both countries created new prospects for Turkiye’s carpets. Demand for Turkiye’s carpets from the US buyers started increasing by September with further increase expected in the coming year. Carpet manufacturing companies geared up to develop new designs to replace products previously sourced from India, besides making plans for the summer 2026 season. In addition to trading with the US, companies planned to grow in Northern Europe, South America, the Middle East, and North Africa. Gaziantep, in southeastern Turkiye, is one of the world’s leading centres for carpet manufacturing. The city’s producers account for 65 per cent of global demand for machine-made carpets, with more than 200 firms and about 1,500 looms in operation.

A Positive Outlook

Turkish government and industry stakeholders are expected to double down on export promotion, trade diplomacy, and market diversification to fully capitalise on the changing global trade dynamics. The outlook with the new tariff showed that Turkiye can be an attractive candidate for globally renowned brands that have recently shifted their production from China to Vietnam in their search for new destinations. The US tariffs, originally intended to protect American industry, inadvertently elevated Turkiye’s position in the global textile supply chain. With a 15 per cent tariff rate, Turkiye enjoys an edge over its South Asian competitors and China, presenting itself as a viable alternative in the US supply chains. In this regard, Turkiye targets to replace products from these countries, which are expected to lose market share due to higher tariff. But at the same time, the moderate hike on Turkish imports presents challenges as well. Given the legal uncertainty around tariffs, Turkish exporters will be required to include adjustment clauses in contracts and prepare for multiple scenarios. They also need to adapt pricing strategies, secure resilient logistics, through investing in the US operations, if needed, and maintain strict compliance to avoid penalties. Local partnerships along with distributor networks will need to be strengthened. Brand positioning will shift from cost-based to value-based. To spread out the risk, existing stronghold in the EU market will be leveraged to expand trade. If additionally supported by strategic export policies and investment in competitiveness, Turkiye can capture larger US market in the coming years.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SB)



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US producer price index for final demand up 0.5% in Jan 2026

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US producer price index for final demand up 0.5% in Jan 2026



The seasonally-adjusted US producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.5 per cent in January this year, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).

Unadjusted, it rose by 2.9 per cent for the 12 months ended January 2026.

Prices for final demand goods declined by 0.3 per cent, the largest decrease since falling 0.7 per cent in March 2025.

The seasonally-adjusted US producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose by 0.5 per cent in January.
Unadjusted, it rose by 2.9 per cent for the 12 months ended January 2026.
Prices for final demand goods declined by 0.3 per cent, the largest decrease since falling 0.7 per cent in March 2025.
Leading the January decline, the index for final demand energy dropped by 2.7 per cent.

Leading the January decline, the index for final demand energy dropped by 2.7 per cent.

The index for final demand less food, energy and trade services moved up by 0.3 per cent in January, the ninth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in January, such prices rose by 3.4 per cent, a BLS release said.

The index for final demand goods less food and energy advanced by 0.7 per cent in the month.

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Ind-Ra expects India’s apparel retail revenues to grow 9% YoY in FY26

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Ind-Ra expects India’s apparel retail revenues to grow 9% YoY in FY26



India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a neutral sector outlook and a stable rating outlook for India’s apparel retail sector for fiscal 2026-27 (FY27).

Ind-Ra expects sector revenues to grow around 9 per cent year on year (YoY) in FY26 and 10.5 per cent YoY in FY27 following uneven and subdued growth through FY24 and early FY25; the growth in FY25 was 8 per cent YoY.

Ind-Ra expects India’s apparel retail sector revenues to grow around 9 per cent YoY in FY26 and 10.5 per cent YoY in FY27 following uneven and subdued growth through FY24 and early FY25.
Premium, branded and ethnic players are expected to see steadier, high single-digit growth trends.
Ind-Ra feels value retailers will outperform other segments within apparel, with robust revenue growth.

Ind-Ra feels value retailers will outperform other segments within apparel, with robust revenue growth through healthy same store sales growth and rapid store additions, albeit at a lower profitability.

Healthy growth in operating profit coupled with strong inventory turns is expected to result in value retailers demonstrating stronger-than-industry return indicators and credit metrics.

Premium, branded and ethnic players are expected to see steadier, high single-digit growth trends as consumer confidence rebuilds with a better spread out wedding calendar than in FY26 and early signs of normalisation seen in the first nine months of FY26.

Listed apparel retail players from Ind-Ra’s sample set reported revenue growth of around 10 per cent YoY in these nine months as the government’s consumption push through lower taxation and mild inflation resulted in higher disposable income and improved affordability.

The operating profit margins also improved to 15.6 per cent in the nine months compared to 15.2 per cent in FY25 due to various cost optimisation measures adopted by companies.

Organised retailers are pivoting from aggressive expansion to productivity-led growth. After elevated store additions in FY24-FY25, Indian apparel retailers are moderating store roll-outs, sharpening site selection, right-sizing formats and targeting faster ramp-ups of recent openings, with omni-channel execution and scalable franchise models enhancing reach and capital efficiency, Ins-Ra said in a press note.

It expects store additions to ease to nearly 7 per cent YoY in FY26 and 6 per cent YoY in FY27, even as retail area continues to rise by 9 per cent YoY in FY26 and by 9.5 per cent YoY in FY27, reflecting larger average store sizes and assortments designed to lift footfalls, average transaction values and sales per square foot.

Value and luxury segments are set to lead sector performance. Value formats benefit from GST rationalisation at lower price points, improved affordability, and rising private-label penetration, while luxury gains from a widening affluent base and deeper global-brand access.

Fast fashion continues to capture Gen-Z-led, content-driven demand. Casual and athleisure remain ahead of ethnic-casual and formal wear, in line with comfort- and lifestyle-led dressing trends. 

Ind-Ra expects profitability to improve gradually as cost optimisation, better sourcing/mix, disciplined advertising and marketing promotions, and operating leverage offset residual pressures from expansion and fixed costs.

The working capital cycle for value retailers is likely to improve YoY in FY27, due to higher inventory turns and improved store level operating metrics.

Overall, as the consumption upturn broadens and retailers prioritise productivity over pace, Ind-Ra expects a stable, sustainable improvement in revenues and operating metrics for organised apparel retailers over FY26–FY27. 

The luxury segment is also expected to benefit from an increase in target customer segment through widening affluent base and deeper global-brand access. 

Mid-premium and several incumbent retailers witnessed slower growth in FY25, due to entry price mix-shifts and loss of market share to value retailers. This, coupled with investments in store format revamps, has stressed their margin profiles. Profitability pressures and a dip in inventory turns have slightly weakened credit metrics for segment players. 

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India, Canada negotiating CEPA to double trade by 2030: PM Carney

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India, Canada negotiating CEPA to double trade by 2030: PM Carney



Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said Canada is negotiating a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) with India to double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030. It is expected to be signed by end of the year.

He was addressing the Canada-India Forum in Mumbai. He is on a four-day visit to India.

“This is an enormous opportunity for both our countries.. but it is one that is about to move to the next level. We should aim much higher, and we are aiming much higher, and to be more strategic in our partnership. And that’s why, immediately after my election last year, our government set out to renew our relationship with India,” he was cited as saying by Indian media outlets.

PM Mark Carney during the Canada-India Forum in Mumbai said Canada is negotiating a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with India to double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030.
It is expected to be signed by 2026 end.
Canada could also be India’s strategic partner in critical minerals and metals for the latter’s manufacturing, clean tech and nuclear industries, he noted.

As the visit’s focus is on core areas where both sides can work together to create more sovereignty, choice and prosperity, food and energy are the natural first choices, given Canada’s position as a food and energy superpower, Carney said.

It also extends to nuclear co-operation, from being the most reliable long-term supplier of uranium to building large-scale and small modular reactors, he said.

“We could also be India’s strategic partner in critical minerals and metals for your manufacturing, for your clean tech, and for your nuclear industries. And in the other respect, India can help us to double our grid with clean power by 2040,” he added.

India’s leadership in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital economy aligns well with Canada’s mission to develop and commercialise those technologies to deepen its defence innovation, Carney asserted.

In a separate set of agreements, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar also exchanged several memoranda of understanding covering critical mineral cooperation, promotion of renewable energy use and cultural cooperation.

After India, Carney is scheduled to continue his tour with stops in Australia and Japan, according to the official itinerary released by his government.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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