The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy says the management of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new stage.

The IRGC Navy made the announcement in a post on its social media account on Friday, two days after a temporary Pakistan-mediated ceasefire went into force between Tehran and Washington following the failure of the US and Israel to achieve their objectives after 40 days of war against the Iranian nation.

“The two days of silence in military battle clearly showed to friends and enemies that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new phase,” it said.

The announcement echoed Thursday’s remarks by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, who said Iran will “take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage.”

The United States and the Israeli regime launched their illegal act of aggression against Iran on February 28, but the Iranian armed forces responded by launching 100 waves of missile and drone operations targeting locations in the Israeli-occupied territories as well as US military bases and assets across the region.

Iranian forces also blocked the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas tankers affiliated with the adversaries and those cooperating with them in an attempt to maintain security at the strategic waterway.

The US sought to form a coalition to open the strategic waterway, asking NATO countries to contribute naval and air assets. However, most of Washington’s allies have declined to commit forces.

Additionally, on Friday, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the country will send a special envoy to Iran to examine the situation in West Asia amid conflicting reports about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

It added that the decision had been taken during a telephone conversation between top top Iranian and South Korean diplomats.

Meanwhile, Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for the association of Iranian oil product exporters said that the acceptance of Iran’s proposed provisions about the security and legal regime of the Strait of Hormuz as part of the truce agreement can be one of the most important diplomatic achievements in recent decades.

The strait was previously open, but now some international analysts believe that new conditions could benefit Iran, Hosseini noted.

• Taiwan opposition leader in China for ‘peace’ mission.
• Cheng meets China’s Xi at Great Hall of the People.
• Cheng is party’s first leader to visit China in a decade.
  

China’s President Xi Jinping met Taiwan’s opposition party leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing on Friday, telling the visiting delegation he had “full confidence” that Taiwanese and Chinese people would be united.

Kuomintang (KMT) chairwoman Cheng is the party’s first leader to visit China in a decade.

Xi told Cheng, as the two met on Friday, that “the general trend of compatriots on both sides of the Strait getting closer, edging nearer and becoming united will not change”.

“This is an inevitable part of history. We have full confidence in this,” Xi said during the talks carried by Taiwanese media.

He also said China was willing to strengthen dialogue with groups in Taiwan, including the KMT, on the “common political foundation of… opposing Taiwan independence”.

Earlier, she told Xi that the Taiwan Strait would “no longer be a focal point of potential conflict” and “both sides should transcend political confrontation”.

She also said Xi had responded “positively” to her proposal that the sides work toward Taiwan participating in international organisations such as Interpol and regional trade agreements.

Taiwanese lawmakers have been at loggerheads over the government’s plan to spend NT$1.25 trillion ($39 billion) on defence, which has been stalled for months in parliament, controlled by opposition parties including the KMT.

Defence spending

Cheng’s trip comes a month before US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a summit with Xi.

The United States has been piling pressure on Taiwanese opposition lawmakers to back a proposal for defence purchases, including US weapons.

Cheng has railed against the government´s proposal, insisting “Taiwan isn’t an ATM” and instead backing a KMT plan to allocate NT$380 billion ($12 billion) for US weapons with the option for more acquisitions.

While KMT party members regularly fly to China for exchanges with officials, its last leader to visit was Hung Hsiu-chu in 2016.

Cross-strait relations have worsened in particular since the election of Tsai´s successor, Lai Ching-te, who Beijing considers a separatist.

Cheng landed in Shanghai on Tuesday evening, saying shortly after her arrival that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not doomed to war, as the international community has feared”.

The KMT leader also travelled to the eastern city of Nanjing, where she visited the mausoleum of revolutionary leader Sun Yat-sen, one of the few Chinese historical figures revered in both Beijing and Taipei.

TEXAS: As diplomatic activity intensifies ahead of anticipated peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, a parallel surge is unfolding far from negotiating tables in the fast-moving world of online prediction markets, where hundreds of millions of dollars are being wagered on the outcome of the conflict.

On platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are placing real-money bets on whether the fragile ceasefire will hold, whether negotiations will succeed, and how the broader confrontation might evolve. The scale of activity reflects a global consensus: the situation is both highly consequential and deeply uncertain.

Available data suggests that more than $300 million has been traded across Iran-related markets, transactions often described as “trading” rather than betting, with over $250 million concentrated in a single market tied to the timing and nature of a ceasefire.

Participants are effectively pricing probabilities: Will the Islamabad talks yield a breakthrough, or will tensions reignite?

Market sentiment, as reflected in these trades, remains cautious. The likelihood of a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement is currently viewed as limited, with implied probabilities ranging between 20% and 40%.

By contrast, a temporary or partial outcome such as an extension of the ceasefire or a limited diplomatic understanding is seen as more plausible, with estimates exceeding 50%.

At the same time, positions anticipating renewed escalation or a breakdown of the ceasefire hover between 30% and 50%, underscoring a widespread lack of confidence in long-term stability.

In some cases, traders have already reaped substantial gains. According to market reports, several participants earned more than $600,000 by correctly anticipating the ceasefire announcement before it became public, raising questions in some quarters about the possibility of insider information.

Analysts note that prediction markets have evolved beyond speculative entertainment into a serious barometer of geopolitical sentiment, where financial exposure intersects with information, analysis, and risk.

Meanwhile, international media outlets are describing the Islamabad talks as a “fragile but pivotal moment”. Yet there is broad agreement among analysts that the ceasefire itself remains tenuous, with core disputes unresolved.

Iran’s nuclear programme, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing hostilities in Lebanon continue to cast a long shadow over any diplomatic progress.

For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. Islamabad’s role as a mediator could enhance its diplomatic standing, but the risks are equally significant. Should the talks fail, the economic and security repercussions — especially through energy markets and regional instability are likely to be felt well beyond the negotiating room.

Experts caution that while financial wagering on geopolitical crises is not new, the scale of activity surrounding the US-Iran confrontation marks a turning point. Modern conflicts, they argue, are no longer confined to battlefields. Their impact ripples through financial systems, digital platforms, and global public opinion alike.

As attention turns to Islamabad, where negotiations are set to begin within hours, the outcome remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the world is watching and, in many cases, quite literally investing in what comes next.