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Global bets surge ahead of US-Iran dialogue

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Global bets surge ahead of US-Iran dialogue


US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. — Reuters
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. — Reuters

TEXAS: As diplomatic activity intensifies ahead of anticipated peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, a parallel surge is unfolding far from negotiating tables in the fast-moving world of online prediction markets, where hundreds of millions of dollars are being wagered on the outcome of the conflict.

On platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are placing real-money bets on whether the fragile ceasefire will hold, whether negotiations will succeed, and how the broader confrontation might evolve. The scale of activity reflects a global consensus: the situation is both highly consequential and deeply uncertain.

Available data suggests that more than $300 million has been traded across Iran-related markets, transactions often described as “trading” rather than betting, with over $250 million concentrated in a single market tied to the timing and nature of a ceasefire.

Participants are effectively pricing probabilities: Will the Islamabad talks yield a breakthrough, or will tensions reignite?

Market sentiment, as reflected in these trades, remains cautious. The likelihood of a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement is currently viewed as limited, with implied probabilities ranging between 20% and 40%.

By contrast, a temporary or partial outcome such as an extension of the ceasefire or a limited diplomatic understanding is seen as more plausible, with estimates exceeding 50%.

At the same time, positions anticipating renewed escalation or a breakdown of the ceasefire hover between 30% and 50%, underscoring a widespread lack of confidence in long-term stability.

In some cases, traders have already reaped substantial gains. According to market reports, several participants earned more than $600,000 by correctly anticipating the ceasefire announcement before it became public, raising questions in some quarters about the possibility of insider information.

Analysts note that prediction markets have evolved beyond speculative entertainment into a serious barometer of geopolitical sentiment, where financial exposure intersects with information, analysis, and risk.

Meanwhile, international media outlets are describing the Islamabad talks as a “fragile but pivotal moment”. Yet there is broad agreement among analysts that the ceasefire itself remains tenuous, with core disputes unresolved.

Iran’s nuclear programme, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing hostilities in Lebanon continue to cast a long shadow over any diplomatic progress.

For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. Islamabad’s role as a mediator could enhance its diplomatic standing, but the risks are equally significant. Should the talks fail, the economic and security repercussions — especially through energy markets and regional instability are likely to be felt well beyond the negotiating room.

Experts caution that while financial wagering on geopolitical crises is not new, the scale of activity surrounding the US-Iran confrontation marks a turning point. Modern conflicts, they argue, are no longer confined to battlefields. Their impact ripples through financial systems, digital platforms, and global public opinion alike.

As attention turns to Islamabad, where negotiations are set to begin within hours, the outcome remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the world is watching and, in many cases, quite literally investing in what comes next.





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UK beats May heat record with 33.5℃ registered near London

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UK beats May heat record with 33.5℃ registered near London


A drone view shows people at a busy Margate beach as temperatures climb over the bank holiday weekend due to a heat dome spreading across the region, in Margate, Britain, May 24, 2026. — Reuters/File
A drone view shows people at a busy Margate beach as temperatures climb over the bank holiday weekend due to a heat dome spreading across the region, in Margate, Britain, May 24, 2026. — Reuters/File 

Britain broke its record on Monday for the hottest day in May, according to the national weather agency, with the mercury rising to 33.5℃ near London as the country baked in a sweltering heatwave.

The previous hottest May day saw 32.8℃ heat, first registered in 1922 and again in 1944.

It is just the latest temperature record to tumble in the UK, which saw its hottest year on the books in 2025, with scientists warning that the country is unprepared for the ever-more frequent heatwaves driven by man-made climate change.

The Met Office had earlier forecast highs of 35℃, after heatwave conditions spread to parts of southeast England and London by Sunday night.

“Temperatures at Heathrow have recently reached 33.5℃, provisionally beating the all-time May record,” the Met Office wrote on social media.

“Records are usually only broken by tenths of a degree — making this heatwave unprecedented for the time of year,” the weather agency added earlier.

Monday is also expected to be the hottest bank holiday ever.

“We rarely see temperatures above 35℃, even in the summer months, so to see temperatures getting close to 35℃ in May is, as I say, pretty historic,” Met Office meteorologist Tom Morgan told the domestic Press Association news agency.

“It’s nice to have it, but it is much, much hotter than it should be in the UK,” Andrea Quaine, a 41-year-old mother, told AFP in London as temperatures exceeded 30℃ on Sunday.

“I am worried about it because it obviously shows that global warming is happening,” she added.

“The weather here, it’s like a mini version of hell. It’s boiling. It’s like really hot. The sunscreen, it will protect me, but it’s really hot,” said 10-year-old Liza Nizari, who was visiting London from Manchester in the northwest.

Scientists say human-induced climate change is making extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts and floods more intense, resulting in temperature records being broken more frequently.

Climate advisers last week warned the UK government that the country was “built for a climate that no longer exists” and urged it to adapt infrastructure like schools and hospitals for a warming planet.





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Iran says most negotiation points agreed, no Pakistan trip planned

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Iran says most negotiation points agreed, no Pakistan trip planned



Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei said that Tehran’s current priority is to end the ongoing tensions and conflict through negotiations. Addressing a press conference today, he clarified that there are currently no plans to send an Iranian delegation to Pakistan, while noting that Iran remains in contact with countries cooperating on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei added that recent progress in negotiations has been made possible through the mediation efforts of Pakistan and other countries.

Baghaei said that the management of the Strait of Hormuz falls within the jurisdiction of coastal states, adding that Iran will ensure the protection of ships passing through the waterway and will respond to any act of aggression. He further stated that any proposed memorandum of understanding does not include detailed provisions on the management of the strait.

He said that most points in the ongoing negotiations have been agreed upon, but stressed that this does not mean a final deal or signing is imminent. According to him, Iran is currently focused on practical steps and shaping its strategy based on ground realities, while continuing to define its own policy independently. He added that pressure and threats are part of politics, but Iran makes its decisions based on its own assessments.

Baghaei further said that Iran and the United States have reached a general framework and are engaged in talks aimed at ending the conflict, although nuclear issues are not part of the current discussions. He cautioned against assumptions that a formal agreement or announcement is close.

He also said that a proposed ceasefire framework reportedly covers all fronts of the conflict, and that Iran is acting with a focus on implementation rather than rhetoric.



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India orders migrant detention centres sparking explusion fears

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India orders migrant detention centres sparking explusion fears


A Muslim man offers prayers during Ramadan inside Jama Masjid (Grand Mosque) in the old quarters of Delhi, India. — Reuters/File
A Muslim man offers prayers during Ramadan inside Jama Masjid (Grand Mosque) in the old quarters of Delhi, India. — Reuters/File
  • BJP govt claims move aimed at targeting illegal migrants.
  • Critics say measure reflects hardline stance on immigration.
  • Order sparks fear among minorities about arbitrary expulsions.

India’s ruling Hindu-nationalist party has ordered detention centres for undocumented Bangladeshis and Rohingyas in West Bengal state, sparking fear among minorities that it could lead to arbitrary expulsions.

The directive comes just days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won power in the eastern state for the first time since the country’s independence in 1947.

The order calls on local authorities to set up “holding centres” for “apprehended foreigners” awaiting deportation, as part of a broader crackdown on illegal migration.

The government has defended its “detect, delete, deport” principle, saying those targeted are migrants staying illegally in the country.

“Illegal migration has security and socio-economic ramifications which are often well beyond law enforcement” read the order, issued last week.

The decision has fuelled anxiety among West Bengal’s roughly 35 million Muslims, many of whom share linguistic and cultural ties with neighbouring Bangladesh.

Critics say the measure reflects the government’s long-standing hardline stance on immigration, with top BJP members referring to Bangladeshi migrants as “termites” and “infiltrators” in the past.

The party has pursued similar policies in the neighbouring state of Assam, where it has overseen sweeping identification drives and largescale detentions.

Rights activists say hundreds have been deported to Bangladesh from Assam without due legal process, often based on ethnic profiling.

Many of them have been allegedly pushed across the border at gunpoint, according to activists and lawyers who have challenged the measures in court.

They argue the policies disproportionately impact the Muslim population by conflating religious identity with illegal migration.

The planned centres in West Bengal have drawn particular concern because of the state’s porous border with Bangladesh and its long history of migration.

The inclusion of Rohingya refugees in the order has also drawn criticism.

India has previously been accused by humanitarian groups of forcibly returning Rohingya to Myanmar, despite ongoing conflict there, in potential violation of international norms on refugee protection.

Adding to the unease of the Muslims, the BJP-led government in Assam on Monday introduced legislation to amend personal religious laws, which critics say could further marginalise minorities.





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