Business
UK economy boost set to be announced as budget uncertainty fades
The UK economy is anticipated to have registered modest growth during the final quarter of 2025, as it navigated persistent budget uncertainty, according to leading economists.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release crucial GDP figures for December and the entire fourth quarter on Thursday, offering a clearer picture of the nation’s economic performance.
Economists largely predict a 0.1 per cent expansion for the quarter. However, some analysts suggest the growth could be marginally higher, buoyed by stronger-than-expected activity in November and a perceived increase in clarity following the autumn Budget, which may have supported businesses in the run-up to the festive season.
This follows earlier ONS data indicating a 0.1 per cent growth in the three months leading to September.
The subsequent months saw a 0.1 per cent contraction in October, followed by a 0.3 per cent rebound in November, largely attributed to a recovery in manufacturing output at Jaguar Land Rover after a significant cyberattack.
Despite this, December is projected to have experienced no growth, according to estimates from Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Several industry surveys, including the month’s construction PMI data, also pointed to continued weakness across housing, commercial construction, and civil engineering sectors.
Conversely, others believe that improved certainty post-Budget might have stimulated a modest rise in spending.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, commented: “It is likely that economic activity picked up after the budget once that cloud of uncertainty shifted to the rear view mirror in December.
“Plus, there could have been an improvement in the services sector with consumers spending on things like food and beverages, retail, and hotels around the festive season.”
Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested GDP growth “could tip to 0.2%” but maintained his original prediction of 0.1 per cent.
He added: “We think the broad thrust from activity in the services sub-sectors in December indicates that budget uncertainty is already fading quickly.”
Nevertheless, the broader outlook for UK economic growth remains subdued. The Bank of England announced on Thursday that it now estimates the economy grew by 1.4 per cent last year, a slight reduction from its previous forecast of 1.5 per cent.
The central bank also revised down its growth projections for 2026, from 1.2 per cent to 0.9 per cent, and for 2027, from 1.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent.
Business
Middle East crisis: Jubilant FoodWorks reports some Domino’s outlets affected by LPG shortage – The Times of India
Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL), which operates Domino’s Pizza and Dunkin Donuts in India, has reported constraints in LPG cylinder supplies across parts of its store network due to the ongoing West Asia war, according to ET.In a filing to the BSE, the company said, “Operational impact at this stage is limited and being actively managed. The company is taking several steps to conserve LPG and working overtime to move to alternate energy sources like electricity and piped natural gas (PNG).”It added that it is in continuous touch with oil marketing companies to track developments and respond to the evolving situation. “The company is in constant engagement with oil marketing companies (OMCs) to remain apprised of the latest developments and plan operational responses accordingly, given the rapidly evolving nature of the situation,” the filing said.The company noted that it is closely monitoring the situation as supply disruptions persist.The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry, with several chains facing similar challenges due to LPG shortages.On March 10, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) had advised its five lakh members to consider shorter operating hours, reduce items requiring long cooking times or deep frying, and adopt fuel-saving measures such as using lids while cooking, in view of supply constraints linked to the Gulf war.
Business
Russia sells reserve gold for first time in 25 years to fund Ukraine war deficit: Report – The Times of India
Russia has begun selling physical gold from its central bank reserves for the first time in 25 years, as the government seeks to plug a widening budget deficit driven by sustained military expenditure, according to a report by Berlin-based news outlet bne IntelliNews.Regulatory data show that between 2022 and 2025, Russia sold gold and foreign currency worth over RUB 15 trillion ($150 billion), followed by an additional RUB 3.5 trillion ($35 billion) in just the first two months of 2026, the report noted. In January alone, the Central Bank of Russia sold 300,000 ounces of gold, followed by another 200,000 ounces in February.The move marks a significant shift in reserve management. Earlier, gold transactions were largely notional, involving transfers between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank without physical movement of bullion. In recent months, however, the central bank has started selling actual gold bars into the market.As a result, Russia’s gold holdings have declined to 74.3 million ounces, the lowest level in four years. The disposal of 14 tonnes in January and February is the largest two-month sale since the second quarter of 2002, when 58 tonnes were offloaded in a single tranche.The sales come as Russia’s fiscal position comes under increasing strain. The government ended 2025 with a budget deficit of 2.6 per cent of GDP, compared to an initial projection of 0.5 per cent, Berlin-based bne IntelliNews report noted. Economists estimate the actual deficit could be closer to 3.4 per cent, with some payments deferred to 2026 to limit the reported gap.Pressure on the budget has intensified as oil prices weakened in the second half of the year and US sanctions tightened, reducing the contribution of oil and gas tax revenues to about 20 per cent of total revenues — roughly half of pre-war levels.The decision to sell gold has also been influenced by the sharp rise in bullion prices to above $5,000 per ounce. This surge has pushed Russia’s international reserves to over $809 billion as of February 28, including around $300 billion of assets frozen in the West, according to the Central Bank of Russia. Of this, gold reserves alone are valued at about $384 billion.Russia currently holds more than 2,000 tonnes of gold, making it the world’s fifth-largest sovereign holder, according to World Gold Council data. The country had built up these reserves over the years to reduce dependence on dollar-denominated assets, especially after sanctions imposed following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and further tightened after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Since 2022, the Ministry of Finance has relied on multiple funding channels to manage budget pressures. These include drawing from the National Welfare Fund, which still holds around RUB 4 trillion, increasing issuance of domestic OFZ treasury bonds, and raising value-added tax rates, which account for about 40 per cent of government revenues.The shift to selling physical gold suggests that Russia is now tapping its liquid reserve buffers more directly, underlining the growing fiscal strain as the conflict in Ukraine continues into its fourth year.
Business
Newcastle electronic music venues still struggling despite growth
The electronic music scene in Newcastle is experiencing a boom, outpacing London with a 72% year-on-year growth, according to a new report. But venues on the ground say they are still struggling under the weight of funding issues and the cost of living crisis. So is the city’s club scene truly thriving?
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