Business
UK inflation expected to jump to 21-month high of 4%
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and airfare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
Last week, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the pension triple lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves is reportedly set to launch a £2 billion tax raid on lawyers, family doctors and accountants by imposing a new charge on people who use limited liability partnerships.
Generally, individuals in such partnerships are treated as self-employed and not subject to employer national insurance, which is levied at 15%.
The charge on partnerships will be levied at a slightly lower rate than the employers’ rate of national insurance in a bid to “equalise tax treatment,” The Times reported.
The Treasury declined to comment.
New Delhi: As per RBI holiday list, bank branches will be closed for certain days on account of Diwali and related festivities like kali puja, kati bihu, Bhai dooj, across the nation. Bank branches in several cities will be closed on account of Diwali Balipratipada today, 22 October 2025.
When will bank branches be closed over the next few days?
Bank branches will be closed on various accounts in different parts of the country on various days between 21 and 23 October for Diwali festivities. Here’s the detailed list.
Banks will be closed for Diwali (Bali Pratipada)/Vikram Samvant New Year Day/Govardhan Pooja/Balipadyami, Laxmi Puja (Deepawali) on October 22 in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar.
Banks were closed in Assam for Kati Bihu on october 18. In several cities –Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Manipur, Jammu & Kashmir–banks were also closed for Diwali Amavasya (Laxmi Pujan)/Deepawali/Govardhan Pooja on October 21
Bhai Bij/Bhaidooj/Chitragupt Jayanti/Laxmi Puja (Deepawali)/Bhratridwitiya/Ningol Chakkouba: October 23
In the remaining days of October, banks will be closed for the following festivities
Chath Puja (Evening Puja): October 27
Chath Puja (Morning Puja): October 28
Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel’s Birthday: October 31
Apart from the above bank holidays, the second and fourth Saturdays, Sundays of the month are falling on the following dates:
Sunday: October19
Fourth Saturday: October 25
Sunday: October 26
Holidays of the mentioned days will be observed in various regions according to the state declared holidays, however for the gazetted holidays, banks will be closed all over the country.
If you keep a track of these holidays, you would be able to plan bank transaction activities in a better way. For long weekends, you can even plan your holidays well.
Business
Asian stocks today: Markets slide as US-China tensions intensify; HSI falls 1%, Nikkei sheds over 260 points – The Times of India
Asian equities slipped on Wednesday as investors took a step back following recent gains, while gold and silver tumbled for a second straight day, halting their recent rally. The pullback came after US President Donald Trump suggested that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might not go ahead. Markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Taipei and Manila all fell. Tokyo also saw a decline, with profit-taking after a strong rally triggered by Japan’s easing political tensions.Nikkei was down 269 points or 0.55%, reaching 49,046 after conservative Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s new prime minister.Hong Kong’s HSI trimmed 342 points or 1.32% to trade at 25,684. Shanghai and Shenzhen also slipped 0.44% and 0.81%, respectively.Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi traded flat, adding 3 points to reach 3,827 at 9:26 AM IST.In commodities, gold, which has surged more than 60% since the start of the year and hit multiple records, fell sharply. At one point on Wednesday it dropped to $4,000 an ounce, down from Tuesday’s record peak of $4,381.51. Silver, which has been riding gold’s rally, also fell. The gold rally had been driven by a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, falling bond yields and central bank buying. Lingering concerns about the global economy and a fear of missing out also boosted its safe-haven appeal. Trump’s remarks added to market caution. He said on Tuesday that he expected a “good” trade deal with Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea next week. “I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting. Certainly, there are a lot of people that are waiting for it.” He then added, “Maybe it won’t happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, ‘I don’t want to meet. It’s too nasty’. But it’s really not nasty.”
Jonah FisherEnvironment correspondent
Getty ImagesFining English water companies for spilling raw sewage will soon become quicker and easier, the government has said.
New proposals would see automatic fines of up to £20,000 issued for some minor offences and make it simpler to punish more serious ones.
In recent years data from the water industry’s own monitoring equipment has shown how frequently rules are broken around sewage spills. But the regulator, the Environment Agency, has by its own admission struggled to act.
“I want to give the Environment Agency the teeth it needs to tackle all rule breaking,” said Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds, announcing the proposals.
“With new, automatic and tougher penalties for water companies, there will be swift consequences for offences – including not treating sewage to the required standard, and maintenance failures,” she said.
The plans will be put to a six-week public consultation starting on Wednesday.
The English water companies welcomed the proposals, with a spokesperson for trade body Water UK saying: “It is right that water companies are held to account when things go wrong.”
Getty ImagesFor the most serious pollution offences, the enforcement system remains the same. The EA has to take water companies to court and prove to a criminal standard that an offence has been committed “beyond a reasonable doubt”. If that prosecution results in a conviction the company could have to pay a large fine, possibly in the millions of pounds.
The new proposals are focused on more minor offences which happen frequently and have in the past gone largely unpunished.
The plans would see automatic financial penalties of up to £20,000 introduced for rule breaches such as failure to report a significant pollution incident within four hours, failure to report spill data properly or if emergency overflow outlets discharge sewage more than three times in a year.
For some more serious offences the government wants to make it easier for the EA to take action.
So it’s proposing that the burden of proof be reduced from “beyond all reasonable doubt” – the norm for criminal proceedings – to “on the balance of probabilities”, which is used in civil cases. The fines which the EA can impose without going to court could be increased to a maximum of half a million pounds.
The reduced burden of proof for some offences is already written into law, having been part of the Water (Special Measures) Act which received Royal Assent in February 2025. This six-week consultation is to determine which offences should be included, and the level of the fines.
“Fines of £500,000 are pocket change to billion-pound companies like Thames Water,” says James Wallace, the CEO of campaign group River Action.
“Higher penalties and urgent, wholesale reform are essential to prevent negligent firms polluting our rivers and short-changing their customers.”
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Bank Holiday Diwali Balipratipada: Are Branches Closed Or Open In Your City
Asian stocks today: Markets slide as US-China tensions intensify; HSI falls 1%, Nikkei sheds over 260 points – The Times of India
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