Business
UK inflation expected to jump to 21-month high of 4%
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and airfare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
Last week, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the pension triple lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves is reportedly set to launch a £2 billion tax raid on lawyers, family doctors and accountants by imposing a new charge on people who use limited liability partnerships.
Generally, individuals in such partnerships are treated as self-employed and not subject to employer national insurance, which is levied at 15%.
The charge on partnerships will be levied at a slightly lower rate than the employers’ rate of national insurance in a bid to “equalise tax treatment,” The Times reported.
The Treasury declined to comment.
Business
Power as ‘currency’: Experts say data centre growth lifts demand; India poised for global leadership – The Times of India
India’s expanding data centre and artificial intelligence ecosystem could position the country as a global leader in power trade, with experts pointing to surplus electricity capacity and rapid reforms in the power distribution sector, according to speakers at a national conference on energy and technology.Speaking at the National Conference on AI and Machine Learning based solutions in the power sector, Jitendra Srivastava, chairman and managing director of REC Limited, said the rapid rise of AI and data centres is creating a new era where electricity itself becomes a strategic asset, according to ANI.“With the exploding growth of artificial intelligence, with the exploding growth of data centres, with the sheer amount of power required to function these places…We are going to see an era when power will be the currency and we are uniquely placed with its huge potential with its already surplus status. We are poised to become world leaders. We are in a position where we can show the world that power is a tradable commodity and we can be global leaders in this,” Srivastava said.The conference brought together solution providers and power distribution companies with the aim of enabling collaboration and innovation. Shashank Mishra, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Power, said the initiative was designed to create a common platform for developing new solutions.“Today we are bringing together solution providers and distribution companies on a single platform where they can interact and develop new solutions and ideas. We are also presenting several innovative concepts in the form of solutions, and the best among them will be awarded by the Minister of Power,” Mishra told ANI.He added that the government expects the initiative to be “a transformative” step for the sector.Highlighting ongoing reforms, Srivastava said the Ministry of Power has been driving changes under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), with smart metering forming a core pillar of the programme. He stressed that the benefits of smart meters can be fully realised only with the use of advanced analytics.“To understand the advantages of smart metering, it is essential to leverage the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning,” he said, adding that such tools can aid anti-theft measures, load forecasting and system rationalisation.According to Srivastava, the conference seeks to demonstrate how AI- and machine learning-based tools can improve consumer services, assist electricity regulators and help discoms function more efficiently.India’s energy sector has strengthened significantly in recent years, balancing rising demand with sustainability goals. Citing International Energy Agency projections, speakers noted that emerging and developing economies will account for about 85 per cent of the growth in global electricity demand over the next three years, with India playing a central role.As of June 2025, India’s total installed power capacity stood at 476 GW, while power shortages have declined sharply from 4.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 0.1 per cent in 2024-25, according to official data.
Business
‘Next big clean-up’: FM Sitharaman flags customs simplification; hints at duty rationalisation in Budget – The Times of India
Ahead of Budget 2026, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said simplifying India’s customs framework will be the government’s next major reform focus, signalling a comprehensive clean-up aimed at making compliance easier and more transparent.Speaking at the HT Leadership Summit, Sitharaman said customs reforms would follow the rationalisation efforts already undertaken in income tax and Goods and Services Tax (GST) to boost consumption by leaving more cash in the hands of consumers, PTI reported.“We need a complete overhaul of customs… we need to have customs simplified for people to feel that it is not cumbersome to comply… need to make it more transparent,” the finance minister said.She said the government intends to bring the same virtues of transparency and ease that guided income-tax reforms to the customs regime, adding that the proposed changes would include further rationalisation of customs duty rates.The finance minister indicated that announcements to this effect may be made in the Union Budget, likely to be presented on February 1.“We have brought down customs duty over the last two years steadily. But in those few items where our rates are considered to be over the optimal level, we have to bring them down as well. Customs is my next big cleaning-up assignment,” she said.In this year’s Budget, the government proposed eliminating seven additional customs tariff rates on industrial goods, following the removal of seven tariff slabs in 2023-24. This reduced the total number of customs tariff slabs to eight, including a zero rate.On the rupee’s sharp depreciation, Sitharaman said the currency would find its natural level. The rupee has weakened about 5 per cent against the US dollar during calendar year 2025.The currency breached the 90-per-dollar mark for the first time earlier this week, settling at a provisional all-time low of 90.21 amid sustained foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices, PTI noted.On economic growth, Sitharaman expressed confidence that India’s GDP expansion would remain at 7 per cent or above in the current financial year.The Indian economy grew at a six-quarter high of 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, aided by stronger factory output and robust services-sector performance, offsetting a slowdown in farm output. Growth stood at 7.8 per cent in the preceding quarter and 5.6 per cent a year earlier.For the first half of the financial year ended September, India clocked GDP growth of 8 per cent.
Business
Smartworld Developers enters Noida, to invest Rs 2K cr on 1st realty project – The Times of India
Realty firm Smartworld Developers will invest around Rs 2,000 crore to build its first project in Noida, as part of the company’s plan to expand beyond the Gurugram property market. Smartworld Developers has announced its entry into Noida, which is an important micro-market in the Delhi-NCR. The company has acquired a 6-acre land parcel in Sector 98 along the Noida Expressway through an auction process for Rs 414 crore, it said in a statement. Smartworld Developers will build a mixed-use project comprising premium branded residences, high-street retail, and serviced homes. The company will invest around Rs 2,000 crore to build this project, while the estimated revenue exceeds Rs 3,000 crore. “Entry into Noida is a significant milestone for Smartworld Developers as we further strengthen our presence in the NCR region. Noida’s rapidly evolving infrastructure and its growing importance as a key real estate hub offer immense potential,” said Ashish Jerath, President – Sales & Marketing, Smartworld Developers. The company is in discussions with a leading global brand for a potential collaboration on the Noida project. Smartworld Developers clocked Rs 6,400 crore worth of sales bookings last fiscal year, a remarkable 60 per cent annual growth. Gurugram-based Smartworld Developers has delivered around 6.5 million sq ft to date, and another 20 million sq ft is currently under construction. According to real estate consultant PropTiger data, housing sales across eight major cities fell 95,547 units during the third quarter of this calendar year from 96,544 units in the corresponding period of the preceding year. Sales of residential properties in Delhi-NCR decreased 21 per cent to 7,961 units from 10,098 units, said PropTiger, which Aurum PropTech has recently acquired.
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