Business
UK inflation expected to jump to 21-month high of 4%
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and airfare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
Last week, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the pension triple lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves is reportedly set to launch a £2 billion tax raid on lawyers, family doctors and accountants by imposing a new charge on people who use limited liability partnerships.
Generally, individuals in such partnerships are treated as self-employed and not subject to employer national insurance, which is levied at 15%.
The charge on partnerships will be levied at a slightly lower rate than the employers’ rate of national insurance in a bid to “equalise tax treatment,” The Times reported.
The Treasury declined to comment.
Workers at the John Lewis Partnership are set to find out whether they will receive their first annual bonus payment in four years next week.
The retail group, which runs the John Lewis department store chain and Waitrose supermarket business, will also reveal how it has been progressing with its transformation strategy in an update on Thursday March 12.
It will report its results for the year to January, which will include informing staff over its plans for any potential bonus.
It is still not clear whether the employee-owned business will pay an annual bonus to its staff, who the retail group call partners.
The payment of a bonus is decided by the company’s board.
JLP has not paid an annual bonus to workers since January 2022 amid a major turnaround strategy at the company.
Following the coronavirus pandemic, the group shut a number of John Lewis department stores and cut head office jobs in a bid to shore up its finances.
Last year, the company opted not to hand out a bonus again despite seeing annual profits triple.
JLP saw underlying profits rebound higher to £126 million for the year to January last year, from £42 million a year earlier.
Last summer, the company indicated in an internal update that staff could be in line for a bonus if it beats a £200 million profit target.
At its peak during the 1980s, the retailer paid an annual bonus worth as much as 24% of employee salaries.
After it was not paid out for a third consecutive year, a number of frustrated workers signed an open letter calling on bosses to bring the bonus back.
Last month, JLP said John Lewis and Waitrose partners would receive an inflation-busting 6.9% pay increase as part of a £108 million investment in its workforce.
On Thursday, the company will also shed more light on the progress of its major transformation under chair Jason Tarry.
The company’s strategy under the former Tesco UK boss has seen it pump more investment into its stores as JLP renewed its focus in its core retail business.
The firm is currently investing £800 million across its stores as part of a long-term investment.
It has refurbished 23 Waitrose stores over the past year, as well as five John Lewis shops.
It also launched the Topshop brand across all its 32 department stores last month as part of investment into its fashion offer.
Last month, Mr Tarry also pulled the plug on the partnership’s plans to build around 10,000 rental properties in order to focus further on retail.
It abandoned the build-to-rent ambitions launched under previous chairwoman Dame Sharon White in 2020, blaming higher costs and caution in the property market.
Last Updated:
On International Women’s Day 2026, Equirus Wealth reports Indian women investors’ shift from fixed deposits and gold to equity mutual funds.
Women investors are steadily reshaping India’s financial landscape, with rising participation in stocks, mutual funds, and digital investing platforms.
On International Women’s Day 2026, a key trend of behavior change among female investors has emerged over the past five years, particularly in their investment choices across various financial products. Women are now more confident while investing in high risk but rewarding equity market, as the portfolio allocation in equity mutual funds surged from 10 per cent to 32 per cent, while down from 40 per cent to 20 per cent in Fixed Deposits (FDs).
The five-year study on women investors and relationship managers was conducted by Equirus Wealth Limited, and was published in a report titled “Expanding Horizons: Changing Wealth Management Behaviours of Indian Women – Qualitative Analysis of Investor Evolution Across Age and Affluence.”
The study reveals that women investors are increasingly moving away from episodic product purchases such as fixed deposits, gold and property towards diversified, allocation-driven portfolios anchored around long-term financial goals.
This reflects the major behavioural change from ‘safety-first’ investing to allocation-driven portfolio strategies.
Female Investors Adopting AI Cautiously
According to the report ,Artificial Intelligence may dominate global investment conversations, but Indian women investors are adopting it cautiously. They are using AI primarily as research and learning tool rather than for autonomous investment decisions.
Not Panicking During Corrections
Another interesting thing being revealed by the study is that 70-90% of investors hold or review their investments during market corrections rather than exiting in panic, showing maturity during market cycles.
At the same time, around 55% selectively add capital during market dips, reflecting growing conviction and a longer-term approach to investing.
Rise of “bucket investing”
Investors are increasingly dividing portfolios into buckets like safety, growth, liquidity and legacy instead of buying random financial products.
Risk is no longer seen only as loss of capital.
Investors now also consider inflation, goal failure, and portfolio drawdowns as risks.
75–90% are discussing intergenerational wealth transfer and financial discipline for the next generation.
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March 08, 2026, 14:14 IST
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Gold is sold at a discount in Dubai due to Middle East conflict disrupting flights. Traders offer up to $30 per ounce less than London prices.
Dubai Gold Selling Cheaper As Iran War Grounds Flights
Gold is being sold at a discount in Dubai as the widening conflict in the Middle East disrupts flights and hampers the movement of bullion from one of the world’s key trading hubs.
According to a Bloomberg report, traders in Dubai are offering discounts of up to $30 per ounce compared to the global benchmark price in London. The unusual price cut comes as shipments remain stranded due to flight disruptions triggered by the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel.
Dubai is a key global centre for refining and exporting gold to markets across Asia, including India. However, partial airspace restrictions and heightened security risks have slowed the movement of bullion out of the region.
Why Gold Is Being Sold Cheaper
Gold is typically transported in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft. With several flights from the UAE restricted amid regional tensions, traders are struggling to move bullion to international markets.
At the same time, insurance and freight costs have surged, making shipments more expensive and uncertain. Many buyers have therefore stepped back from placing new orders, unwilling to bear high logistics costs without assurance of timely delivery.
To avoid paying prolonged storage and financing costs while shipments remain stuck, some traders are offering gold at discounted prices.
Although transporting bullion by road to airports in neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia or Oman is theoretically possible, logistics firms are reluctant due to the risks and complications of moving high-value cargo across land borders during a conflict.
What It Means For India
India, one of the largest buyers of gold shipped from Dubai, could face short-term supply disruptions if the situation continues.
Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont Enterprises Ltd., said several cargo shipments have already been delayed, creating temporary tightness in the availability of physical bullion in India.
However, industry experts as reported by Bloomberg say the immediate impact may remain limited as domestic inventories are currently comfortable after heavy imports earlier this year.
Chirag Sheth, principal consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus, said Bloomberg that India has ample stocks for now, but warned that prolonged disruptions could eventually affect supply if the conflict continues for several months.
Meanwhile, global gold prices have surged this year amid geopolitical uncertainty, with spot gold recently trading above $5,000 per ounce.
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March 08, 2026, 10:03 IST
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