Business
UK inflation expected to jump to 21-month high of 4%
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and airfare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
Last week, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the pension triple lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves is reportedly set to launch a £2 billion tax raid on lawyers, family doctors and accountants by imposing a new charge on people who use limited liability partnerships.
Generally, individuals in such partnerships are treated as self-employed and not subject to employer national insurance, which is levied at 15%.
The charge on partnerships will be levied at a slightly lower rate than the employers’ rate of national insurance in a bid to “equalise tax treatment,” The Times reported.
The Treasury declined to comment.
Business
Gold On Sale In Dubai? Here’s Why Prices Have Dropped By $30 Per Ounce
Last Updated:
Gold is sold at a discount in Dubai due to Middle East conflict disrupting flights. Traders offer up to $30 per ounce less than London prices.

Dubai Gold Selling Cheaper As Iran War Grounds Flights
Gold is being sold at a discount in Dubai as the widening conflict in the Middle East disrupts flights and hampers the movement of bullion from one of the world’s key trading hubs.
According to a Bloomberg report, traders in Dubai are offering discounts of up to $30 per ounce compared to the global benchmark price in London. The unusual price cut comes as shipments remain stranded due to flight disruptions triggered by the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel.
Dubai is a key global centre for refining and exporting gold to markets across Asia, including India. However, partial airspace restrictions and heightened security risks have slowed the movement of bullion out of the region.
Why Gold Is Being Sold Cheaper
Gold is typically transported in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft. With several flights from the UAE restricted amid regional tensions, traders are struggling to move bullion to international markets.
At the same time, insurance and freight costs have surged, making shipments more expensive and uncertain. Many buyers have therefore stepped back from placing new orders, unwilling to bear high logistics costs without assurance of timely delivery.
To avoid paying prolonged storage and financing costs while shipments remain stuck, some traders are offering gold at discounted prices.
Although transporting bullion by road to airports in neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia or Oman is theoretically possible, logistics firms are reluctant due to the risks and complications of moving high-value cargo across land borders during a conflict.
What It Means For India
India, one of the largest buyers of gold shipped from Dubai, could face short-term supply disruptions if the situation continues.
Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont Enterprises Ltd., said several cargo shipments have already been delayed, creating temporary tightness in the availability of physical bullion in India.
However, industry experts as reported by Bloomberg say the immediate impact may remain limited as domestic inventories are currently comfortable after heavy imports earlier this year.
Chirag Sheth, principal consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus, said Bloomberg that India has ample stocks for now, but warned that prolonged disruptions could eventually affect supply if the conflict continues for several months.
Meanwhile, global gold prices have surged this year amid geopolitical uncertainty, with spot gold recently trading above $5,000 per ounce.
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March 08, 2026, 10:03 IST
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Business
70% of adults without a licence say learning to drive is unaffordable
Some seven in 10 British adults without a full driving licence say learning to drive is currently unaffordable, according to a survey.
The figure is even higher among younger people, with 76% of 18 to 29-year-olds without a licence saying driving lessons are financially out of reach, the poll for car insurer Prima found.
Overall, 38% said the cost of driving lessons was the biggest deterrent to learning to drive.
Some 32% were put off by the price of buying a car and 15% said the cost of car insurance was the main barrier to learning to drive.
Almost half (45%) said they would consider learning to drive if it became significantly cheaper.
Nick Ielpo, UK country manager at Prima, said: “For a growing number of people, driving is no longer a symbol of freedom – it’s a financial stretch too far.
“Between lessons, buying a car and insuring it, the upfront and ongoing costs are pricing many people out before they even start.”
Find Out Now surveyed 1,134 adults who do not hold a full driving licence between January 21 and 23.
Business
PSX down 6.3% amid escalating Gulf war | The Express Tribune
KARACHI:
The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) KSE-100 index experienced a sharp decline in the outgoing week, closing at 157,496 points, down 6.3% week-on-week, or 10,566 points.
This follows last week’s fall and brings the cumulative decline from its January 2026 peak of around 189,167 points to nearly 17%. The sell-off was driven by heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from the US-Iran conflict, which has rattled regional markets and prompted investors to reduce exposure amid fears of broader instability, rising energy prices and domestic security concerns.
On a day-on-day basis, the PSX commenced the week with its historical single-day decline as the benchmark KSE-100 index plunged 16,089 points, or 9.57%, to close at 151,973. Next day, it staged a partial recovery, with the index advancing 5,159 points, or 3.39%, at 157,132.
On Wednesday, however, the PSX witnessed a directionless session, when the KSE-100 closed at 155,777, down 1,355 points (-0.86%). The PSX recorded a sharp rebound on Thursday, with the benchmark index gaining 5,433 points (+3.49%) to close at 161,211. The market closed the week on a cautious note as the KSE-100 dropped by 3,715 points (-2.30%) to settle at 157,496.
In its weekly report, Arif Habib Limited (AHL) mentioned that the KSE-100 index witnessed a lacklustre performance during the outgoing week, closing at 157,496 points, down 6.3% WoW (10,566 points) amid geopolitical tensions due to the US-Iran conflict. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 hit 7% year-on-year, the highest level since October 2024, compared to 5.8% in January 2026.
Among other economic data, a trade deficit of $3 billion was recorded in February. Exports amounted to $2.3 billion (-8% YoY) while imports reached $5.3 billion, down 1.6% YoY. Total cement dispatches for the month rose 12.53% YoY to 4.19 million tons compared to 3.73 million tons in February 2025. Provisional urea offtake remained subdued, falling 28% YoY to 251k tons, marking the lowest monthly offtake.
AHL mentioned that gas production edged down 0.1% WoW to 2,687 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in the fourth week of Feb’26, while oil output fell 2.9% WoW to 59,103 barrels per day. A total of Rs581.7 billion was raised in the T-bill auction on Wednesday, with yields increasing across all tenors by 21.5 to 39.3 basis points. The government’s debt increased by 1% month-on-month to Rs79.3 trillion (+10% YoY) as of Jan’26 against Rs72.1 trillion in Jan’25.
Pakistan’s liquid foreign exchange reserves were recorded at $21.4 billion, up by $26.2 million, comprising $16.3 billion with the State Bank and $5.1 billion with commercial banks, AHL added.
Muhammad Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global, noted that the KSE-100 extended its decline during the week as heightened geopolitical tensions weighed on the market. The index dropped 10,566 points (-6.3%) WoW, following last week’s 5,108-point decline, pushing the cumulative fall from its January 2026 peak of 189,167 points to nearly 17%.
Market activity remained volatile throughout the week as investors continued to reduce exposure amid regional tensions and domestic security concerns. Sentiment also remained cautious ahead of key macro developments, with the IMF mission currently engaging with Pakistani authorities for the third review of the loan programme.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the inflation clocked in at 7% YoY for Feb’26, the highest since Oct’24. “We expect the SBP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 10.5% in the upcoming meeting as rising global oil prices may add to inflationary pressures,” he said.
Pakistan was exploring options to manage a potential gas shortfall after Qatar Energy halted LNG production following Iran’s attacks. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia assured Pakistan of secure oil supplies through the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea to help meet energy needs. The government was also reviewing a proposal to shift to weekly revision of petroleum prices from fortnightly reviews, the JS head of research said.
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