Business
UK inflation: What is the rate and why are prices still rising?
BBCPrices in the UK rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to July, driven by higher air fares, as well as increases in the cost of food.
It means inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The Bank moves interest rates up and down to try to keep inflation at that level, and has cut interest rates five times since August 2024.
What is inflation?
Inflation is the increase in the price of something over time.
For example, if a bottle of milk costs £1 but is £1.05 a year later, then annual milk inflation is 5%.
How is the UK’s inflation rate measured?
The prices of hundreds of everyday items, including food and fuel, are tracked by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This virtual “basket of goods” is regularly updated to reflect shopping trends, with virtual reality headsets and yoga mats added in 2025, and local newspaper adverts removed.
The ONS monitors price changes over the previous 12 months to calculate inflation.
The main inflation measure is called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and the latest figure is published every month.
CPI was 3.8% in the year to July 2025, up from 3.6% in the 12 months to June. The July 2025 figure is the highest recorded since January 2024, when the rate was 4.0%.
The Bank also considers other measures such as “core inflation” when deciding whether and how to change rates.
This doesn’t include food or energy prices because they tend to be very volatile, so can be a better indication of longer term trends.
Core CPI was 3.8% in the 12 months to July, up slightly from 3.7% recorded in the year to June.
Why are prices still rising?
Inflation has fallen significantly since hitting 11.1% in October 2022, which was the highest rate for 40 years.
But that doesn’t mean prices are falling – just that they are rising less quickly.
Inflation soared in 2022 because oil and gas were in greater demand after the Covid pandemic, and energy prices surged again when Russia invaded Ukraine.
It then remained well above the 2% target partly because of higher food prices.
These continue to be a significant factor in the current inflation figures.
Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 4.9% in the year to July, up from 4.5% in the year to June.
Beef, sugar, chocolate, instant coffee and fruit juice saw significant price rises.
But the main factor driving the July inflation figure was higher air fares, which saw the largest July increase since the ONS began collecting that data on a monthly basis in 2001.
In addition, fuel prices fell only slightly between May and June 2025, compared to a larger drop in the same period in 2024.
Why does putting up interest rates help to lower inflation?
When inflation was well above its 2% target, the Bank of England increased interest rates to 5.25%, a 16-year high.
The idea is that if you make borrowing more expensive, people have less money to spend. People may also be encouraged to save more.
In turn, this reduces demand for goods and slows price rises.
But it is a balancing act – increasing borrowing costs risks harming the economy.
For example, homeowners face higher mortgage repayments, which can outweigh better savings deals.
Businesses also borrow less, making them less likely to create jobs. Some may cut staff and reduce investment.
In recent months inflation has remained above the Bank’s target at the same time as the economy has remained relatively flat and the jobs market has softened.
Therefore, the Bank has chosen to cut rates, despite high inflation, in an attempt to encourage people to spend more and get businesses to invest and create jobs to boost the economy.
What is happening to UK interest rates and when will they go down again?
The Bank of England began cutting rates in August 2024, and made five cuts to bring the rate down to 4%.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey had said that future cuts will be made gradually and carefully.
The August interest rate decision was extremely close, with the committee voting 5-4 to cut rates by a quarter percentage point.
It followed an unprecedented second vote by the Bank’s policymakers, as one economist wanted a larger cut of half a percentage point.
This suggests future interest rate decisions could also be finely balanced.
Inflation is now expected to peak at 4% in September, the Bank said in its latest Monetary Policy Report. That is twice the Bank’s target rate and above the 3.8% high it predicted in its previous report in May.
A further interest rate cut had been expected at the Bank’s meeting in November, but analysts are now less sure this will happen given the closeness of the August vote.
The Bank also has to consider the wider global economy. Mr Bailey has repeatedly warned about the unpredictable impact of US tariffs, and conflict in Israel and Iran has also created uncertainty.
Are wages keeping up with inflation?
Annual average regular earnings growth was 5.7% for the public sector and 4.8% for the private sector.
Meanwhile, separate ONS figures showed the number of vacancies fell again to 718,000 for the May to July period, marking three continuous years of falling job openings.
The unemployment rate was 4.7% in the three months to July – the same as the three months to April.
This marked the highest level of unemployment since June 2021, and is also likely to factor into the Bank of England’s decision whether to cut rates again.
What is happening to inflation and interest rates in Europe and the US?
The US and EU countries have also been trying to limit price increases.
The inflation rate for countries using the euro was 2.1% in August, according to an early estimate.
In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate from an all-time high of 4% to 3.75%, the first fall in five years.
By July 2025, after several further cuts, its key rate stood at 2%.
Inflation in the US held steady at 2.7% in July, remaining above the US central bank’s 2% target.
After a string of cuts in the latter part of 2024, the US central bank again chose not to change rates at its July 2025 meeting, the fifth hold in a row.
That leaves its key interest rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
The Federal Reserve has repeatedly come under attack from President Trump, who wants to see further interest rate cuts.
Thousands of young people in Scotland will benefit from skilled “clean energy jobs”, the UK Government has said, as it launched its plans to “train the next generation of energy workers”.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said the new plan places Scotland “at the very heart of the clean energy revolution”.
The Government said Scotland will see up to 60,000 jobs in greener energy by 2030 – a 40,000 increase from 2023.
Across the UK, it expects employment to double to 860,000 by the end of the decade, including nuclear energy.
It said 31 “priority occupations” had been identified for the switch away from fossil fuels, including plumbers, electricians and welders.
As part of the transition, the Scottish Government said on Sunday it would jointly invest £18 million with the UK Government to enable thousands of North Sea workers to access tailored support to make the change to more sustainable energy.
UK ministers said their new plans include proposals to ensure people in these jobs have “world class pay, terms and conditions”.
They said this includes closing loopholes to extend employment protections enjoyed by offshore oil and gas workers working beyond UK territorial seas.
Initiatives were also announced to encourage more veterans, ex-offenders and unemployed people into the sector.
The UK Energy Secretary said: “Communities across Scotland have long been calling out for a new generation of good industrial jobs.
“The clean energy jobs boom can answer that call – and today we publish a landmark national plan to make it happen and places Scotland at the very heart of the clean energy revolution this Government is delivering.
“Our plans will help create an economy in which there is no need to leave your home town just to find a decent job.
“Thanks to this Government’s commitment to clean energy a generation of young people in Scotland can have well-paid secure jobs, from plumbers to electricians and welders.
“This is a pro-worker, pro-jobs, pro-union agenda that will deliver the national renewal our country needs.”
Scottish Energy Secretary Gillian Martin said: “Scotland’s innovation, expertise and vast renewable energy resources will not only benefit the planet – but deliver new economic opportunities and new jobs for households and communities across the country.
“This continued and expanded funding to the Oil and Gas Transition Training Fund will support more offshore workers to take on different roles across the sustainable energy sector over the next three years – helping to deliver a fair and managed transition to the sector.
“We will continue to explore how best to support Scotland’s energy skills transition, working closely with the UK Government on options like guaranteed interview schemes, redeployment pools and skills passporting.”
Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander added: “From offshore wind to carbon capture, Scotland is uniquely positioned to lead our clean energy revolution with world-class resources and skilled workers.
“Harnessing the potential of clean energy is an unmistakable example of how the UK Government is delivering for Scotland.
“These 40,000 new opportunities will benefit a generation of young people across Scotland and represent a pivotal moment in our mission to boost economic growth across all parts of the UK.
“This UK Government is putting money directly into the pockets of hardworking Scots.
“This comes alongside Great British Energy’s launch in Aberdeen, which is already unlocking significant investment and helping to create skilled jobs as we make Britain a clean energy superpower.”
Mumbai: India’s private banks showed contrasting trends in asset quality in Q2 FY26, with larger lenders maintaining stability while smaller players, particularly those under new leadership, reported setbacks in earnings. IndusInd Bank and Federal Bank, both navigating transitions under new MDs, did not post year-on-year growth in net profits as the chiefs accelerated clean-ups and strengthened governance.HDFC Bank, the country’s largest private lender, reported a 10.8% rise in net profit to Rs 18,640 crore, driven by a 25% jump in non-interest income and steady improvement in asset quality. MD and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan said economic activity was improving across customer and product segments, allowing the bank to accelerate loan growth. Asset quality remained a key strength, with the bank maintaining stable ratios for net interest margin, cost-to-income, and return on assets. HDFC Bank also continued its investments in technology and innovation, including GenAI and “lighthouse experiments”, aimed at improving efficiency and customer experience over the next 18-24 months.ICICI Bank’s net profit grew 5.2% to Rs 12,359 crore despite a steep drop in treasury income. Excluding treasury, core operating profit rose 6.5%, reflecting steady underlying performance. Provisions fell 25.9%, helping gross NPAs ease to 1.58% and net NPAs to 0.39%. The lender expanded retail and business banking loans, which now account for more than half its portfolio.IndusInd Bank, under new MD and CEO Rajiv Anand, recorded a net loss of Rs 437 crore as the bank accelerated write-offs and increased provisions in microfinance to strengthen its balance sheet. The lender also continued to contend with legacy issues stemming from prior accounting irregularities. Gross NPAs improved slightly to 3.60%, while net NPAs eased to 1.04% but deposits and advances contracted, and core income fell.YES Bank reported an 18.3% rise in net profit to Rs 654 crore, supported by higher non-interest income, cost efficiency, and retail growth. Net NPAs declined to 0.3% while gross NPAs remained stable at 1.6%. The quarter marked a strategic ownership change, with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation acquiring a 24.2% stake, and the bank continued to expand its branch network and digital footprint. MD and CEO Prashant Kumar emphasised the business model and strategy remained unchanged, with efforts ongoing to improve revenues, net interest margin, and cost-to-income ratio.Federal Bank posted a 9.5% decline in net profit to Rs 955 crore due to higher provisions, even as gross NPAs fell to 1.83% and net NPAs to 0.48%. Under new MD and CEO KVS Manian, the bank focused on strengthening risk management, increasing mid-yield assets, and expanding digital transactions, which now account for over 92% of all retail and corporate activity.PNB net profit jumps 14% to ₹4904 crorePunjab National Bank reported a 14% rise in Q2 net profit to Rs 4,904 crore, with operating profit up 5.5% to Rs 7,227 crore. Total income grew 5.1%, while net interest income slipped 0.5%. Gross and net NPAs fell to 3.45% and 0.36%, respectively. Advances and deposits rose 10.1% and 10.9%. Retail, agriculture, and MSME loans drove growth. CRAR strengthened to 17.19%, digital transactions surged 31%, and full-year credit growth is expected at 11%-12%.
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Gold and silver sales alone accounted for an astonishing Rs 60,000 crore of the total trade, registering a robust 25% increase from last year’s value
Gold prices have soared by approximately 60% year-on-year, crossing the Rs 1,30,000 per 10-gram mark. (Representational image/News18)
Indian consumers defied a massive surge in prices to spend an estimated Rs 1 lakh crore on Dhanteras this year, showcasing the festival’s undiminished cultural and economic significance. According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), this massive spending spree marks a significant festive boost, with strong consumer confidence overriding high-cost pressures.
The driving force behind this record expenditure was the traditional purchase of precious metals. Gold and silver sales alone accounted for an astonishing Rs 60,000 crore of the total trade, registering a robust 25% increase from last year’s value. This surge is particularly striking given the steep rise in bullion costs: gold prices have soared by approximately 60% year-on-year, crossing the Rs 1,30,000 per 10-gram mark, while silver prices have also jumped by roughly 55%.
CAIT attributed this resilient demand to the deep-rooted Indian belief in precious metals as the most secure form of investment and an auspicious purchase on Dhanteras, the day that marks the beginning of Diwali celebrations. While volumes may have seen a slight dip, the rise in value was substantial, as many consumers opted for strategic buying—favouring lightweight jewellery, gold coins, and bullion for investment purposes to fulfill the shagun (auspicious tradition).
Beyond bullion, the festive purchasing extended across various sectors, underlining a broad economic recovery. Other major contributors to the Rs 1 lakh crore total included utensils and kitchen appliances (estimated at Rs 15,000 crore), electronic and electrical goods (Rs 10,000 crore), and vehicles, textiles, and decorative items.
The festive spending also received a further boost from the popularity of the “Vocal for Local” campaign, with consumers showing a clear preference for Indian-made products, benefiting small traders and local manufacturers across the country.
Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via …Read More
Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via … Read More
October 18, 2025, 22:34 IST
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