Business
US adds more jobs than expected in September
Natalie ShermanBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesThe first official data in weeks on the US job market is out, and it showed a surprising pick-up in hiring after a lacklustre summer.
Employers added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double what many analysts had expected, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the Labor Department figures showed.
The US government shutdown, which ended last week after more than a month, had delayed publication of the figures for nearly seven weeks, leaving policymakers guessing about the state of the job market at a delicate moment.
Job growth has still barely budged since April, raising pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to support the economy.
But policymakers at the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, have been divided about the need for further interest rate cuts. In addition to the health of the job market, they are also monitoring price inflation that ticked up to 3% in September, above the 2% rate the bank wants to see.
Looming over the debate are questions like whether artificial intelligence (AI) will dampen demand for workers over the long term and how a crackdown on immigration is changing labour supply and demand.
Businesses are also wrestling with cutbacks to government spending, new tariff costs and uncertain consumer demand.
A private report this month by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found the number of job cuts in October hit the highest number for the month since 2003, as high-profile companies including Amazon, Target and UPS announced reductions.
On Thursday, telecoms giant Verizon also said it was cutting more than 13,000 jobs, citing in part “changes in technology and in the economy” for the move.
The announcements have raised concerns about cracks in what has been seen as a “low-hire, low-fire” job market.
But evidence of wider deterioration has been elusive, as claims for unemployment benefits remain stable.
Health care firms, restaurants and bars led the job gains in September, while transportation and warehousing firms, manufacturers and the government shed jobs.
“The September jobs report may be backward looking but offers reassurance that the labour market wasn’t crumbling before the government shutdown,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics.
However, she noted noting that the data from October is likely to be weaker, due to government layoffs.
Limited hiring has already prompted the ranks of people without work more than six months to swell this year, though their numbers dipped a bit in September.
Unusually, the strains have been particularly pronounced among those with college degrees. The unemployment rate for that group rose to 2.8% in September, up from from 2.3% a year earlier.
“It’s been pretty challenging,” said Mason Leposavic, who has applied to thousands of jobs since graduating in May 2024 from the Rochester Institute of Technology.
Mason LeposavicWhile the 24-year-old did eventually find part-time work as a bartender, he has failed to find the kind of office role he hoped for in sales, tech or similar sectors.
He said the search had been dispiriting – especially when he saw firms repeatedly re-post openings he had been rejected from for lack of experience – and he was not optimistic it would improve soon.
He is now without work again after switching states to move back in with his mother in Arizona in an attempt to save money.
“I didn’t realise how hard it would be,” he said. “I think everything really changed after AI, especially in the tech industry.”
Information about the situation has been clouded by the government shutdown, which has limited incoming economic data in recent weeks.
Thursday’s report is the last official release on the job market before the Fed’s next meeting in December.
While September’s job gains were stronger than expected, the report also showed job growth in July and August was lower than previously estimated. The US added just 72,000 jobs in July and shed 4,000 positions in August.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its next report on the November job market in mid-December, leaving a gap in some data for October.
Analysts said the inconclusive nature of the latest figures was likely to bolster the case for the Fed to move cautiously and hold off on cutting in December.
“The Federal Reserve is still driving in a fog,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for B Riley Wealth. “As Chair Powell said – ‘When you are driving in a fog, you slow down.'”
Executives from companies such as McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Chipotle have warned in recent weeks that lower-income households are tightening spending as rising prices put pressure on their budgets and confidence in the job market sinks.
But a strong stock market, bolstered by upbeat reports from many companies, has helped to sustain higher earners.
The Fed has cut its key interest rate twice since September, leaving it in a range of 3.75%-4%, its lowest level in three years.
But Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned last month that another reduction was “far from” a foregone conclusion in December.
At the time he offered reassurance about the job market, saying the mix of data suggested “that you’re seeing maybe continued very gradual cooling, but nothing more than that”.
Business
PMI watch: India’s services growth eases in February as demand softens, costs rise – The Times of India
India’s services sector growth eased marginally in February as new business expansion slowed to a 13-month low, reflecting softer demand conditions and a rise in inflation, according to a monthly survey released on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index edged down to 58.1 in February from 58.5 in January. In PMI terminology, readings above 50 denote expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction. “India’s Services PMI registered 58.1 in February, largely unchanged from January’s 58.5, signalling another month of robust expansion in the sector.” “While new order growth slowed to a 13-month low amid rising competition, service providers saw a notable pick-up in international sales and responded with increased hiring to meet operational needs,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. According to respondents, some firms benefited from stronger client enquiries and targeted marketing efforts, which supported sales. However, others reported that an increasingly competitive landscape limited the pace of growth. External demand stood out during the month. Services companies recorded improved business from several overseas markets, including Canada, Germany, mainland China, Singapore, the UAE, the UK and the US. Overall, international sales rose at the quickest pace since last August. Cost pressures intensified for service providers in February. Operating expenses increased at the sharpest rate in two-and-a-half years, prompting firms to raise their selling prices at the fastest pace in six months. “Input and output price inflation accelerated, with firms passing higher expenses — particularly for food and labour — on to customers, yet business confidence climbed to its highest level in a year as companies looked to broaden their market presence,” Bhandari said. At the combined level, private sector activity strengthened further. Total business output across manufacturing and services expanded at the fastest rate in three months, supported by improved demand and higher new business inflows. The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 58.9 in February from 58.4 in January. “Overall, the composite PMI rose to 58.9, reflecting the fastest pace of private sector activity growth in three months, buoyed by strong momentum in manufacturing,” Bhandari said. Composite PMI figures represent weighted averages of manufacturing and services indicators, with the weights reflecting their respective shares in official GDP data. While the pace of new order growth at the composite level was broadly similar to that seen around the start of the year, hiring activity strengthened to its highest level since last October. Inflationary trends were also evident in the broader private sector, with both input costs and output charges rising at quicker rates. These increases reached nine-month and six-month highs, respectively.
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India’s Sensex and Nifty correct 6-7%, with 80% of stocks in bear territory. Monarch AIF reports 64% of stocks over Rs 1,000 crore market cap has fallen 30%.
Hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.
India’s benchmark indices may not show it, but a large part of the market is already in deep correction. According to a report by Monarch AIF, while the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7 per cent from their record highs, nearly 80 per cent of listed stocks are already in bear market territory.
The data highlights a sharp divergence between headline indices and the broader market.
Majority of Stocks Deep In Correction
The report analysed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore.
It found that over 64 per cent of these stocks have fallen more than 30 per cent from their all-time highs. Nearly 78 per cent have declined over 20 per cent.
In simple terms, most stocks in the market have already seen a brutal correction even though benchmark indices remain relatively elevated.
This unusual divergence has been playing out for the past 18 months.
Why Indices Are Still Holding Up
According to the report, Indian markets are witnessing a rare phase of simultaneous time and value correction.
A narrow set of large-cap stocks has kept the benchmark indices elevated. Meanwhile, hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.
This has created a misleading picture where the indices appear stable but the broader market has been under sustained pressure.
Now A New Shock: Middle East War
The situation has become more complicated after the recent escalation in West Asia.
Following US-Israel strikes on Iran, global markets have turned volatile and crude oil prices have surged.
Amid these developments, the Sensex recently fell over 1,000 points, while the Nifty slipped below the 24,900 level.
For investors, the challenge is that a market already weakened by months of selling is now facing geopolitical risks and a potential oil shock.
Should Investors Buy Or Wait?
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, advised caution. “Amid persistent global uncertainties and elevated volatility, market participants are advised to maintain discipline and adopt a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks during corrective phases. Fresh long positions should ideally be considered only after a decisive and sustained breakout above the 25,000 mark on the Nifty, which would signal improving sentiment and confirm the development of a stronger bullish structure,” he said.
Key Risk For India: Rising Oil
V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the biggest concern for India is rising crude prices.
“With the war escalating and crude rising, markets are going into a period of heightened uncertainty. Nobody knows how long this conflict will go on and what will be the extent of the havoc it could wreck. From the perspective of India, which relies on imports for around 85% of her oil requirements, the real concern is the potential inflation and its consequences on economic growth. From the market perspective, the impact of potentially widening trade deficit, depreciating currency, higher inflation and perhaps lower growth is the real issue. If this fear materialises, corporate earnings will be impacted,” he said.
However, he added that the impact may be temporary if the conflict ends quickly.
“If it ends in, say 3 to 4 weeks, things will be back to normal,” he said.
Don’t Panic, Use Corrections
Despite the volatility, Vijayakumar advised investors not to panic. “Experience tells us that panicking and getting out of the market during uncertain times like these is not the right thing to do. Markets have an uncanny ability to surprise and climb all walls of worries,” he said.
According to him, investors with a long investment horizon and higher risk appetite can gradually accumulate quality stocks during corrections.
He added that sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and defence may offer attractive long-term opportunities.
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March 04, 2026, 13:39 IST
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