Politics
US intelligence says Iran govt not at risk of collapse
- US intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains stable.
- IRGC continues to dominate security and economic sectors.
- Israel admits regime collapse is not guaranteed.
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON: US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.
With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest US military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.
The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the US and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Shifting objectives
Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.
The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.
Still, the US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior leaders, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.
Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.
It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.
It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran.
Intelligence suggests Kurds lack firepower to fight Iran
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organised inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support.
Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes.
“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.
The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers for the US to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.
- Iran dismisses US escort plan as counterproductive initiative.
- Dar reiterates diplomacy as only path forward.
- Tehran reviews US response via Pakistani mediators.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday night said talks with the United States were making progress with Pakistan’s “gracious effort,” while cautioning Washington against being drawn into further escalation amid a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
The statement comes after US and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as they wrestled for control over the Strait of Hormuz with duelling maritime blockades, shaking a fragile truce.
US President Donald Trump launched a new effort to get stranded tankers and other ships through the strait, the vital energy-trade chokepoint that has been virtually closed since the US and Israel began attacks on Iran in February, a war that has killed thousands of people across the region.
Trump gave scant details about his new effort, which he called “Project Freedom,” to help stuck ships travel through the strait when he announced it on social media, two days after a legal deadline under US law had passed for him to get authorisation from Congress for the war. Trump told Congress the war was “terminated” and the deadline was moot, a claim disputed by some lawmakers.
It was the first apparent attempt to use military force since last month’s ceasefire announcement to unblock the world’s most important energy shipping route, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said can only happen with its permission.
The cost of shipping insurance has also rocketed. For weeks, the US Navy has blockaded Iran’s trade by sea, which Iran says is itself an act of war.
But Trump’s latest move, at least initially, appeared to have backfired, bringing no surge of merchant ship traffic while provoking a promised show of force from Iran, which has threatened to respond to any escalation with new attacks on its neighbours hosting US soldiers. Major shipping companies said they were likely to wait for an agreed end to hostilities before trying to cross the strait.
Meanwhile, Iranian FM Araghchi said Monday’s events showed there was no military solution to the crisis. He said peace talks were progressing with Pakistan’s mediation while warning the US and the UAE against being drawn into a “quagmire by ill-wishers.”
Criticising the US initiative aimed at escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi said: “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”
Nonetheless, the US military said two US merchant ships made it through the strait, without saying when, with the support of Navy guided-missile destroyers. While Iran denied any crossings had taken place in recent hours, Maersk said the Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged ship, exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by the US military on Monday.
The commander of U.S. forces in the region said his fleet had destroyed six small Iranian boats, which Iran also denied. Admiral Brad Cooper said he “strongly advised” Iranian forces to keep clear of U.S. military assets carrying out the mission.
Iranian authorities released a map of what they said was an expanded sea area now under their control, extending far beyond the strait to include long stretches of the UAE’s coastline.
‘Dialogue and diplomacy’
A day earlier, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar held a telephonic conversation with his Iranian counterpart, during which both sides discussed the evolving regional situation and Pakistan’s ongoing diplomatic efforts.
According to the Foreign Office, Araghchi appreciated Pakistan’s constructive role and mediation efforts, while Dar reaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment to promoting dialogue and engagement.
He stressed that diplomacy remained the only viable path to achieving lasting peace and stability.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have remained stalled since a ceasefire took effect on April 8, with tensions centred on Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes. The move has disrupted global flows of oil, gas and fertiliser, while the United States has responded by imposing a counter-blockade on Iranian ports.
Pakistan has emerged as a key intermediary in efforts to revive dialogue, hosting high-level engagements between the two sides in Islamabad last month, though a second round of talks has yet to materialise.
— With additional input from Reuters
- Hunan fireworks factory blast kills 21, injures 61.
- Xi orders thorough probe into deadly factory explosion.
- Nearly 500 rescuers deployed after Hunan explosion.
HONG KONG: A blast at a fireworks factory in China’s Hunan province has killed 21 people and injured 61, prompting President Xi Jinping to call for a thorough investigation, state media reported on Tuesday.
The blast in Hunan’s capital city of Changsha, home to a hub for fireworks manufacturing, occurred on Monday around 4:40pm (0840 GMT), according to reports by CCTV and Xinhua.
Videos on Chinese internet platforms showed thick smoke billowing from a large site with collapsed buildings and debris strewn around the area. Reuters could not verify the footage.
Nearly 500 firefighters, rescuers and medical personnel attended the scene, according to the South China Morning Post.
The blast happened at Huasheng Fireworks Manufacturing and Display Company, media said. Reuters could not find a telephone listing for the company to seek comment.
Xi called for a speedy investigation to determine the cause of the blast and strict accountability for the incident, Xinhua reported.
Last year, China exported $1.14 billion worth of fireworks, more than two-thirds of global sales, data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity shows.
Xi also ordered authorities to strengthen risk screening and hazard control in key industries, enhance public safety and ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.
Last week, he urged a nationwide upgrade in China’s disaster response capacity.
The US Secret Service said on Monday it was on the scene of an officer-involved shooting in Washington in which one person was shot by law enforcement.
“US Secret Service personnel are on the scene of an officer-involved shooting at 15th Street and Independence Avenue in Washington, D.C. One individual was shot by law enforcement; their condition is currently unknown,” the Secret Service said in a statement on X. The White House was briefly locked down on Monday afternoon.
The DC Police Department said police were on the scene of the probe.
“The scene is secure. Avoid the area as roads will be closed for several hours,” police said in a statement.
Law enforcement agents have been on alert in recent days in the US capital following a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner late last month, over which a suspect has been arrested.
This is a developing story, and it is being updated with new developments.
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