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US-Israel-Iran war hits oil supplies: How India is preparing for the economic fallout – The Times of India
India is looking at several emergency measures to tackle the risk of fuel shortages if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains affected for an extended period. Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is a prominent and vital maritime route for transmit of oil and goods. According to people aware of discussions between the government and industry stakeholders, the options under consideration include curbing exports of petrol and diesel, stepping up crude purchases from Russia, and implementing demand-side steps such as rationing LPG supplies.Even as the Centre and oil firms maintained that there is no immediate scarcity, refiners have begun scouting for alternative crude sources to offset supplies affected by the conflict in West Asia.
The geopolitical strain has pushed up global oil and gas prices. For India, which relies heavily on imports, this surge translates into a higher import bill and adds to inflationary pressures.
India depends on overseas purchases for almost 90 per cent of its crude oil needs. It also relies on imports to meet around 60–65 per cent of its LPG consumption and roughly 60 per cent of its LNG requirement. A significant portion of these supplies originates in West Asia and moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor that faces the risk of disruption amid the ongoing conflict.
India to curb oil exports?
With concerns mounting over potential disruptions in crude oil availability, the government is considering measures to encourage refiners to channel a larger share of automobile fuels and LPG toward the domestic market by trimming exports, according to a TOI report. It is also exploring ways to step up cooking gas output to ensure uninterrupted supplies for local consumers.Currently, India sends abroad roughly one-third of its petrol production, about a quarter of its diesel output, and nearly half of the aviation turbine fuel it produces. If necessary, refiners can also channel excess ATF into alternative product streams, they said.
Data from the International Energy Agency shows that 5.9 per cent of India’s petroleum output was exported in 2023. During the period from April to December 2025, the country shipped petroleum products worth nearly $330 billion, with key markets including the Netherlands, the UAE, the US, Singapore, Australia and China. In 2024, petroleum gas exports totalled $454 million, largely destined for Nepal, China and Myanmar. The Reliance Industries Limited refinery at Jamnagar remains the country’s biggest exporter.An executive at an oil company said refiners have already initiated discussions with traders to secure capacity amid concerns over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. By Monday, global markets were unsettled following QatarEnergy’s decision to halt gas shipments.
LNG and LPG disruptions
The most pressing area of concern is LPG, as the country relies on imports to meet close to two-thirds of its consumption and keeps relatively limited stockpiles. Around 85–90 per cent of LPG imports originate from Gulf nations.Industry assessments indicate that existing inventories, including domestic storage and cargoes that have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz, would be sufficient for less than a fortnight if fresh supplies are halted. To prepare for such a scenario, Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited have started raising LPG production at select refineries integrated with petrochemical units.Officials are also examining focused demand-management strategies, including the possibility of rationing LPG for consumers who have access to alternate cooking fuels, particularly in rural regions, the people said. India’s crude oil stockpiles are estimated to cover around 17–18 days of consumption, while reserves of refined products such as petrol and diesel could last approximately 20–21 days.LNG inventories are sufficient for about 10–12 days. Without additional shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, these reserves would gradually diminish. Increasing purchases of Russian crude is another option being evaluated, sources told ET.Another industry executive noted that while any disruption could pose short-term challenges, Indian companies maintain a diversified LNG sourcing portfolio, including supplies from the US, with vessels routed via the Suez Canal.“Even if there is a force majeure, we have other sources of supply, which we can tap. Besides, no one is going to stop supplies indefinitely,” the executive said. Although oil and gas prices climbed on Monday, efforts remain focused on keeping supply chains operational.
No rise in petrol, diesel prices expected
Officials indicated that pump prices of petrol and diesel are unlikely to be revised upward in the near term. Oil marketing companies continue to adhere to a calibrated pricing strategy, absorbing losses when international rates climb and recovering margins when they ease. Retail fuel prices have effectively remained frozen since April 2022.On a day when Iranian drone strikes damaged sections of a Saudi Aramco refinery and QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG producer, announced a temporary halt to exports, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri convened a meeting with senior officials and oil company representatives to review the status of crude and gas supplies.“We are closely tracking the fast-changing developments and will take every necessary measure to maintain both the supply and affordability of key petroleum products across the country,” the oil ministry said in a message posted on X.
Measures for Exporters
The government has sought to reassure exporters, saying that it stands prepared to extend necessary support and introduce flexible measures to ease trade operations in view of the uncertainty stemming from tensions in West Asia.At a meeting held in the commerce department and chaired by special secretary Suchindra Misra and DGFT Lav Agarwal, exporters highlighted several areas of concern.
These included risks to perishable consignments already in transit, escalating freight costs, demurrage charges, rerouting of shipments leading to longer transit times, dependence on imported inputs for exports, and potential strain on loan repayments to banks.According to an official statement, authorities are considering setting up a monitoring mechanism or round-the-clock control room to improve inter-agency coordination and swiftly address emerging challenges. The government reiterated its commitment to facilitating trade and signalled openness to granting procedural relaxations in instances of genuine disruption. It also indicated that it would work closely with customs officials to ensure timely clearances and coordinate with banks and insurance companies to ease operational bottlenecks.
Energy markets have seen wild swings since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
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Gold and silver prices declined in both international and domestic markets, reflecting a broader downward trend in precious metals.
In the international bullion market, the price of gold fell by $49 per ounce, settling at $4,788.
According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), in the local market, gold prices also recorded a significant drop. The price per tola decreased by Rs4,900 to reach Rs501,162. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold declined by Rs4,201, settling at Rs429,665.
Silver prices also followed a downward trajectory. The price per tola of silver fell by Rs145 to Rs8,417 while the price of 10 grams of silver dropped by Rs124, reaching Rs7,216.
Read More: Gold, silver prices rise again in local and international markets
Gold and silver prices recorded an increase on Saturday in both international and local markets after declining on Friday, following a three-day upward trend in global and domestic markets.
According to the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), in the international bullion market, the price of gold rose by $45 per ounce to reach $4,837. In the local market, the price of gold per tola increased by Rs4,500 to Rs506,062, while the rate for 10 grams rose by Rs3,858 to Rs433,866.
Silver prices also moved higher, with the per tola rate increasing by Rs118 to Rs8,562. Similarly, the price of silver per 10 grams rose by Rs101 to Rs7,340.
Business
Stocks to buy: What’s the outlook for Nifty for April 20-April 24 week? Check list of top stock recommendations – The Times of India
Stock market recommendations: APL Apollo Tubes, and HDFC Asset Management Company are Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities’ top stock picks for this week. Below are his stock picks and also views on Nifty.Nifty ViewThe benchmark index Nifty continues to inch higher; however, this phase of the rally is notably different, as the spotlight has shifted away from the headline index. While Nifty has extended its pullback rally for the second consecutive week and closed in the green, the real strength is emerging beneath the surface. The broader markets have taken the lead, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 delivering a robust rally and clearly outperforming the frontline index. Both indices have decisively moved above their key moving averages, signalling trend strength, whereas Nifty is still trading below its 100day and 200day EMA. Most importantly, Nifty Midcap 100 is now just a short distance away from its alltime high, suggesting that the next leg of opportunity may be unfolding beyond the conventional largecap space.Focusing back on Nifty, the index has been sustaining above its 50day EMA for the last three trading sessions, while the 20day and 50day EMA have started to edge higher, reflecting improvement in the shortterm trend. Meanwhile, the downward momentum in the 100day and 200day EMA has slowed considerably, indicating a stabilisation in the mediumterm structure. Momentum indicators further support the constructive bias, with the daily RSI trading above the 57 mark and moving higher, and the daily MACD histogram signalling strong bullish momentum.Collectively, these technical factors suggest that the pullback rally is likely to continue in the short term. On the upside, the 24650–24700 zone is expected to act as a crucial hurdle for the index. A sustainable breakout above 24700 could lead to an extension of the pullback rally towards 25000, followed by 25200 in the near term. On the downside, the 24050–24000 zone will serve as immediate support, and as long as the index remains above the 24000 mark, the ongoing pullback rally is likely to stay intact.Bank Nifty ViewThe banking benchmark Bank Nifty also ended the week on a positive note, indicating the continuation of its ongoing pullback rally. However, over the last three trading sessions, the index has struggled to decisively cross its 200day EMA, suggesting a phase of consolidation near a key long-term resistance zone. This price behaviour reflects hesitation at higher levels and points towards a pause in momentum after the recent recovery.This consolidation largely indicates a degree of caution among market participants, as investors appear to be awaiting clarity on the Q4 earnings outcome of major banking heavyweights, namely ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. With both results scheduled over the weekend, the index is likely to witness a directional move post the earnings announcements, depending on earnings performance and management commentary.From a technical perspective, the index continues to maintain a constructive short-term setup, as it is trading above its 20day and 50day EMA, reflecting underlying strength. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the daily RSI placed above the 55 level and trending higher, suggesting improving buying momentum and positive shortterm bias.Looking ahead, the 57000–57100 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area, as it coincides with both the prior swing high and the 100day EMA, making it an important supply zone. A sustainable move above 57100 could lead to a further extension of the pullback rally towards 57800, followed by 58500 in the short term. On the downside, the 55800–55700 zone is placed as an important support band, and any dip towards this region is likely to attract buying interest as long as the structure remains intact.Stock recommendations:APL Apollo TubesAPL Apollo Tubes has shown strong bullish intent after a 14.5% pullback from its early April lows near the 200-day EMA, indicating solid support at lower levels. The recent consolidation between 2072–1961 acted as a base, with the stock now delivering a decisive breakout on strong footing. A positive DI crossover on ADX signals clear buyer dominance, while the MACD nearing a move above the zero line with rising histogram bars points to strengthening momentum.The overall setup suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its uptrend in the near term. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2110-2090 with a stoploss of 2020. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2255 in the short term.HDFC Asset Management CompanyHDFC Asset Management Company has exhibited strong bullish momentum, closing Friday’s session with an impressive 4.89% gain. The stock has surged nearly 26% from its March lows, indicating robust buying interest. Momentum indicators remain firmly supportive, with RSI sustaining above 60, reflecting strength. Additionally, a positive DI crossover on ADX highlights clear buyer dominance, while rising MACD histogram bars with the MACD line above the zero mark further reinforce the ongoing uptrend. The overall structure suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its upward trajectory. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2800-2770 with a stoploss of 2690. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2990 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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