Business
US job growth revisions signal economic weakness
The US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than initial estimates had suggested in the year through March, according to preliminary data from the Labor Department released on Tuesday.
The routine annual report – a revision to payrolls data – showed that the jobs market had been growing at a slower pace than previously thought at the end of the Biden administration and in the first months of the Trump administration.
Economists had anticipated a large downward revision, but the weaker-then-expected figure bolstered concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy.
The Federal Reserve is closely watching for signs of softness in the jobs market ahead of its meeting next week.
The US central bank is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate after holding rates steady so far this year, as it weighs signs of a slowdown in the jobs market against fears that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs might reignite inflation.
Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, fewer than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%. Tuesday’s data added to this picture of a slowing jobs market, reinforcing expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates next week.
The job growth revisions come at a politically fraught time for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just weeks ago, President Trump responded to the signs of a slowdown by firing the head of the agency, accusing Erika McEntarfer, without evidence, of rigging the numbers to make him look bad.
Analysts say the more recent troubles in the job market are partly due to the president’s sweeping changes to tariff and immigration policy, which economists have consistently warned would hurt the economy.
But the Labor Department revisions, which encompass part of the Biden administration, could serve as a boost for President Trump, who has pushed back against claims that his policies are fuelling weakness in the jobs market.
“President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement on Tuesday.
She reiterated longstanding calls from the Trump administration for Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, to “cut the rates now”.
Wall Street largely looked past the jobs growth revisions, with the S&P 500 index holding steady in early trading on Tuesday. But investors remain on edge.
Fresh inflation data is set to be released on Thursday. That could bring fears of stagflation – a situation in which economic growth slows while consumer prices rise – to the forefront, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.
Zaccarelli added that while a deteriorating jobs market “should make it easier for the Fed to cut rates this fall, it could also throw some cold water on the recent rally.”
The Labor Department’s revisions were broad-based, with particularly large adjustments in services sectors including leisure and hospitality.
“With services being the last bastion of employment growth, this does not bode well for the overall health of the labour market,” Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday its decision to cut interest rates to 3.75 per cent, the fourth cut of the year.
For December’s vote, the bank’s nine-person Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed just a slight swing compared to last time out pre-Budget in November; a 5-4 split then favouring a hold became a 5-4 split in favour of cutting this time, with governor Andrew Bailey a key switcher.
Following falling inflation rates, poor economic figures and rising unemployment, it brings the base rate down to the lowest level in almost three years.
Here’s a brief rundown of what the current interest rate might mean for you:
What does the interest rate mean for mortgages?
Broadly speaking, as increasing interest rates over the last few years have meant mortgage repayments going up, then the reverse also holds true: lower rates, lower repayments. However, there are several important things to note.
Firstly, that it’s only the interest on the repayments which should change – your capital repayments will naturally decrease the more you pay off your mortgage. Secondly, the base rate isn’t the rate you are necessarily charged by your bank or lender for the mortgage – they’ll base theirs off the BoE rate but it doesn’t have to be the same.
More than half a million people do, however, have a mortgage which tracks the BoE interest rate and those will see an immediate change. Far more have fixed-term deals, which expire each year and need renegotiating – almost 2 million homes are expected to seek renewed deals in 2026.
If you’ve got a fixed term on a mortgage plan, you won’t see a change in any case until that comes to an end and you start a new one, but if you’ve already finished and moved onto a standard variable rate (SVR) deal, then you might see a change in your repayments.
New mortgage products tend to be based on swap rates – market agreements based on future expectations of interest rate movements – rather than the current bank rate, which is why there has been a recent battle between lenders dropping their rates even before the cut today.
What about savings accounts?
If you have money in a savings account, it’s the other side of the see-saw: rates going down mean you’ll earn less interest.
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As there has been a bit of a fierce battle raging among banks and building societies for customers, it’s still possible to get good deals if you are happy to lock in money for a fixed period of time or contribute regular amounts, with several offering more than 4 per cent until recently.
However, it’s likely some will be removed from the market or have their rates altered in the coming days, while many of the best deals in easy access accounts have been below 4.5 per cent for a while now.
There are always terms and conditions to be met, so ensure any accounts you open suit your circumstances, but the opportunity still remains to save and earn money at a better rate than inflation, which currently sits around 3.2 per cent.
Do be aware of the amount of interest you can earn without being taxed, though. If your savings account interest rate isn’t fixed, banks can always change the rate you get up or down.
A tax-efficient way of saving is to use a Cash ISA, where everyone (for now!) has a £20,000 personal allowance each year, which will drop to £12,000 soon with the other £8,000 reserved for tax-free investing.
Bills and repayments
Credit card repayments and other types of personal loans are of course also affected by interest rates, as the amount they all charge for borrowing could be altered.
For credit card users (and especially for Buy Now Pay Later deals), it’s always ideal to pay off the full amount each month if you are able to, to avoid interest being charged at all – depending on your circumstances and the account type, they can be one of the more costly ways to borrow.
Again, it may not be immediate that lenders alter their rates after a base rate change, but get in touch with them to assess your options if you feel your repayments could or should be lower.
Michael RaceBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesInterest rates have been cut to 3.75%, the lowest level in almost three years, but further reductions are set to be a “closer call”, the Bank of England has said.
In a knife-edge vote, policymakers voted 5-4 in favour to lower rates from 4% reflecting concerns over rising unemployment and weak economic growth.
The Bank said rates were “likely to continue on a gradual downward path”, but warned judgements on further cuts next year would more contested.
Inflation is now expected to fall “closer to 2%” – the Bank’s target – next year, which is sooner than previous forecasts. However, the economy is predicted to see zero growth in the final few months of this year.
The decision to lower borrowing costs from 4% was widely expected, after figures this week showed inflation, the rate prices rise at, slowed further to 3.2% in the year to November.
“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward but with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call,” said the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey.
While the cut is likely to be good news for people looking to borrow cash or secure a mortgage, savers could see a reduction on their returns.
About 500,000 homeowners have a mortgage that “tracks” the Bank of England’s rate, and Thursday’s cut is likely to mean a typical reduction of £29 in monthly repayments.
Homeowners on standard variable rates are also likely to see lower payments, although the vast majority of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals so are not affected by the latest decision.
The Bank said that, following the tax and spending policies announced in last month’s Budget and easing oil and gas prices, inflation was likely to fall close to 2% in the spring/summer of next year. Previously it did not expect this to happen until 2027.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the government would cut £150 off household energy bills in the Budget, as well as freeze fuel duty and rail fares.
However, the Bank said weaker economic growth in November had led it to expect zero growth for the final few months of this year.
It said information gathered from businesses around the country suggested a “lacklustre economy”, with firms concerned by the speculation ahead of the Budget.
The Bank said consumers remained “cautious and keenly focused on value for money”, adding that food shops were “smaller than usual”.
“Some supermarkets have been concerned that the Budget will dampen spending on Christmas food and drink, but discounters say that early sales of lowered priced seasonal food are solid so far,” it added.
Latest figures showed the price of food was the main driver behind November’s drop in inflation.
The inflation rate has fallen in recent months, but this drop does not mean that prices are falling, rather they are rising at a slower rate.
Mr Bailey reiterated that the Bank believed inflation had passed its peak.
Reacting to the Bank’s decision, the chancellor said it was the “sixth interest rate cut since the election – that’s the fastest pace of cuts in 17 years, good news for families with mortgages and businesses with loans”.
But shadow chancellor Mel Stride said while lower interest rates would be “welcome news for many families”, the cut reflected “growing concerns about the weakness of our economy”.
“The economic mismanagement of Rachel Reeves has left the Bank of England with an impossible dilemma, balancing high inflation against a fragile economy.”
EPAThe Bank, which is independent of the government, sets interest rates in an attempt to try to keep consumer price rises under control.
The theory behind increasing interest rates to tackle inflation is that by making borrowing more expensive, more people will cut back on spending and that leads to demand for goods falling and price rises easing.
But it is a balancing act, as high interest rates can harm the economy as businesses hold off from investing in production and jobs.
The government has made growing the economy its main priority as part of its efforts to boost living standards.
In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Bank predicted UK economic growth would be 1.5% this year, but forecast it would fall to 1.2% next year before rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028.
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The Bank of England has cut interest rates to the lowest level in nearly three years, as it said measures in the Budget will help bring down inflation quicker than previously thought.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to reduce rates from 4% to 3.75%.
Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK has “passed the recent peak in inflation and it has continued to fall”, allowing the MPC to cut borrowing costs for the fourth time this year.
It takes the bank’s base interest rate to its lowest level since early 2023.
The nine-person committee voted five-to-four for a cut, with Mr Bailey among those preferring to lower rates at the Bank’s final meeting of the year.
The decision comes after official figures showed Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in November, from 3.6% in October.
Minutes of the MPC’s meeting read: “This was above the 2% target but, following the Budget announcements on administered prices and indirect taxes, headline inflation was now expected to fall back more quickly in April, to closer to 2%.”
It means CPI will near the Bank’s target level considerably earlier than the early 2027 timeframe that it had forecast in November.
Measures in the autumn Budget, delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves last month, are likely to lower CPI inflation by around 0.5 percentage points, according to the MPC.
This includes one-off support for household energy bills and freezing fuel duty which will kick in from April next year.
“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward,” Mr Bailey said.
“But with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call.”
Meanwhile, the MPC said it was expecting the economy to show no growth over the final quarter of 2025.
This comes after official data showed a 0.1% contraction in October, which was weaker than it had been expecting.
Meagre economic growth as well as a weakening jobs market and slower pay growth pointed to underlying inflation pressures reducing, the Bank said.
However, the four MPC members who voted to keep interest rates unchanged were more concerned about prolonged inflation persistence, particularly within the services sector and among wage growth.
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What the latest interest rates change means for your mortgage, savings and bills
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