Politics
US Navy drone fleet effort aimed at China runs aground in failed trials
NEW YORK: During a US naval test off the California coast last month, which was designed to showcase the Pentagon’s top autonomous drone boats, one vessel stalled unexpectedly.
As officials scrambled to fix a software glitch, another drone vessel smashed into the idling boat’s starboard side, vaulted over the deck, and crashed back into the water – an incident captured in videos obtained by Reuters.
The previously unreported episode, which involved two vessels built by US defence tech rivals Saronic and BlackSea Technologies, is one of a series of recent setbacks in the Pentagon’s push to build a fleet of autonomous vessels, according to a dozen people familiar with the programme.
Weeks earlier, during a separate Navy test, the captain of a support boat was thrown into the water after another autonomous BlackSea vessel it was towing suddenly accelerated, capsizing the support boat, according to four people familiar with the matter. The captain was rescued and declined medical attention. The incident was first reported by Defence Scoop.
Both incidents stemmed from a combination of software failures and human error, including breakdowns in communication between onboard systems and external autonomous software, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to share sensitive information.
The Navy, Saronic and BlackSea declined to comment on the incidents.
The videos showing the drone crash were verified by two Reuters sources, the landscape matching terrain imagery, the GARC-096 name ID and structure of the boat matching file imagery of Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC).
US military leaders, seeing the outsized impact of maritime drones in the Ukraine war, have repeatedly said they need autonomous swarms of aerial and maritime drones to hinder a potential advance by China across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan itself has begun acquiring its maritime drones.
The drones being developed in Ukraine, which often look like speedboats without seats, and are capable of carrying weapons, explosives and surveillance equipment, are primarily remote-controlled and cost close to $250,000 – making them optimal for kamikaze missions that have effectively neutralised Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
The US, meanwhile, is aiming to build an autonomous naval fleet that can move in swarms and without human command – a more ambitious task at a higher price point; as much as a few million dollars per speedboat.
The recent test failures highlight the challenges facing the Navy’s effort to deploy the nascent technologies, said Bryan Clark, an autonomous warfare expert at the Hudson Institute. It will need to adapt its “tactics as it better understands what the systems can do and what they can’t do.”
But the Navy’s problems go beyond getting the boats to work: its autonomous maritime drone acquisition unit has also been rocked by the firing of its top admiral, and a top Pentagon official voiced concerns about the programme in a candid meeting with Navy brass last month, Reuters found.
Since the most recent incident, the Pentagon’s Defence Innovation Unit (DIU), which had acquired technology for the tests, has indefinitely paused a contract valued close to $20 million with L3Harris, one of the companies providing autonomous software used to control some of the vessels, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The Pentagon did not respond to questions about the cause of the accidents or the L3Harris contract being paused, which has not been previously reported.
A Pentagon spokesperson said it conducted drone tests as part of a “competitive and iterative approach, between operators and industry.”
L3Harris declined to comment on the contract and directed questions to the DIU. The DIU declined to comment.
“L3Harris stands behind the safety, integrity and capability of our autonomy command-and-control product,” said Toby Magsig, who oversees L3Harris’ autonomous software products.
Rise of sea drones
To accelerate its drone effort, the Pentagon in 2023 launched the $1 billion Replicator programme, through which branches like the US Navy and the DIU planned to acquire thousands of aerial and maritime drones, along with the software to control them. The first systems from this programme are due to be announced this month.
The Navy has committed at least $160 million to BlackSea, which is producing dozens of its Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft boats a month, according to procurement records.
Saronic, which was recently valued at $4 billion in a funding round backed by Andreessen Horowitz and 8VC, makes the competitive sea drone Corsair, but has yet to announce a major contract. Federal procurement records show the company has generated at least $20 million from prototype agreements.
“These systems will play a critical role in the future of naval warfare by extending fleet reach, improving situational awareness, and increasing combat effectiveness,” acting chief of naval operations Jim Kilby said during a visit to BlackSea’s facility in June.
Navy turmoil
Since returning to the office, President Donald Trump has made fielding swarms of drones a top military priority. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passed last month included almost $5 billion for maritime autonomous systems.
But, so far, the Navy’s approach has faced scepticism under the new administration.
In April, the Navy’s key drone boat procurement unit – known as Programme Executive Office Unmanned and Small Combatants (PEO USC) – touted a successful demonstration of the software used to control BlackSea’s vessels in a post on LinkedIn, hailing it as “a major step forward in advancing #maritime autonomy.”
In response, Colin Carroll, then-chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steven Feinberg, suggested the programme was duplicating other efforts within the Pentagon. “I have a feeling that there are changes in this programme’s future,” he replied to the LinkedIn post. Carroll, who is no longer with the Pentagon, declined to comment further.
The PEO USC was recently placed under review, according to four people familiar with the matter, due to a series of setbacks, and could be restructured or shut down.
This comes two months after the Navy said it had sacked the unit’s leader, Rear Admiral Kevin Smith, due to a loss of confidence in his leadership after the Naval Inspector General substantiated a complaint against him. Reuters was unable to contact Smith.
During a meeting last month, Feinberg grilled Navy officials about their autonomous vessel capabilities, including those being fielded by the PEO USC, according to three people briefed on the meeting. Feinberg was unimpressed by some of the capabilities being acquired by the Navy and questioned whether they were cost-effective, the people said.
A Pentagon spokesperson said, “We’re not going to comment on private internal meetings” and directed questions about PEO USC to the Navy.
The Navy declined to comment on the meeting or the acquisition unit being put under review. Spokesperson Timothy Hawkins said the PEO USC stands by its mission, including its role as acquisition authority for the maintenance and modernisation of unmanned maritime systems.
The turmoil comes as shipbuilders and software providers are angling to secure even larger autonomous maritime projects, such as unmanned submarines and cargo-carrying ships.
Last week, the PEO USC started accepting proposals for the Modular Attack Surface Craft to acquire medium and large vessels capable of carrying containers, surveillance equipment, and conducting strikes.
TX Hammes, an autonomous weapons expert and Atlantic Council fellow, said the Navy is in uncharted waters, trying to overhaul decades of tradition at high speed.
“You’ve got a system that’s used to building big things, taking years to make a decision, and now suddenly you’re asking them to move fast,” he said.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday held a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the 5th Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
According to a statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, during the warm and cordial meeting, President Erdogan welcomed PM Shehbaz to Turkiye and thanked him for attending the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
The meeting comes a day after the premier reached Turkiye on the third leg of his tri-nation tour after concluding visits to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
During his visit to Riyadh and Doha, PM Shehbaz held meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
The Turkish president, during the meeting with PM Shehbaz on the sidelines of the diplomacy forum earlier today, praised the prime minister’s peace efforts and said Turkiye would continue to support Pakistan’s diplomatic initiative to bring peace to the region.
The prime minister thanked President Erdogan for his warm invitation and traditional Turkish hospitality extended to him and his delegation during his stay in Antalya.
He congratulated the Turkish president on the success of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which he said had transformed into an important global event.
The two leaders exchanged views on recent regional developments, particularly the evolving situation in the Middle East. PM Shehbaz thanked Erdogan for his strong support and encouragement of Pakistan’s peace efforts and shared with him the updates on how to extend the ceasefire and resume talks so that a peace agreement could be reached.
The two leaders also emphasised the importance of effectively utilising the current window of opportunity to advance a durable and lasting regional peace.
While reaffirming the deep-rooted, historic, and brotherly ties between Pakistan and Turkiye, both leaders expressed satisfaction at the positive trajectory of bilateral relations. They agreed to convene the 8th High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) meeting in Ankara later this year.
The two leaders emphasised the importance of expediting the implementation of ongoing initiatives and exploring new opportunities to further deepen economic engagement.
The meeting concluded with both leaders reaffirming their resolve to further strengthen the strategic partnership between Pakistan and Türkiye, building on fraternal ties and a shared vision for peace and prosperity.
The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Minister for Information Ataullah Tarar and other senior officials.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and other senior Turkish officials were also present.
PM meets world leaders on sidelines of diplomacy forum
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a series of meetings with world leaders on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
During the interactions, the prime minister met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, and Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
He also held meetings with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, as well as former Kosovo president Vjosa Osmani.
The world has lost over $50 billion worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago and the aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years to come, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire accord agreed in Lebanon, while US President Donald Trump said he believed a deal to end the Iran war would come “soon”, though the timing remains unclear.
Since the crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data — the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Put differently, 500 million barrels of oil lost to the market is equivalent to:
Curtailing aviation demand globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days, said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Nearly a month of oil demand in the United States, or more than a month of oil for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates.
Roughly six years of fuel consumption for the US military, based on annual usage of about 80 million barrels from fiscal year 2021.
Enough fuel to run the world’s international shipping industry for around four months.
Key facts:
Gulf Arab countries lost about 8 million barrels per day of crude production in March, nearly equivalent to the combined production of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the biggest oil companies in the world.
Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from about 19.6 million barrels in February, to just 4.1 million barrels for March and April so far combined, according to Kpler data.
The loss in exports would have been enough for around 20,000 round-trip flights between New York’s JFK airport and London Heathrow, according to Reuters estimates.
With crude prices averaging around $100 a barrel since the conflict began, those missing volumes represent roughly $50 billion in lost revenues, said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. That equates to a 1% cut in Germany’s annual gross domestic product, or roughly the entire GDP of smaller countries such as Latvia or Estonia.
Full restoration could take years
Even as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open, recovery of output and flows is expected to be slow.
Global onshore crude inventories have fallen by about 45 million barrels so far in April, according to Kpler. Since late March, production outages have reached roughly 12 million bpd.
Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return to normal operating levels, extending stock draws through the summer, Rauball said. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years.
Shipping industry figures gave a cautious welcome on Friday to Iran’s announcement that it was reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade route to commercial freight after nearly seven weeks closed.
Iranian forces’ closure of the strait has trapped hundreds of ships in the Gulf and driven up the costs of shipping goods, with captains avoiding the region for fear of attacks or mines.
A spokesman for German transportation giant Hapag-Lloyd, which has ships stuck in the Gulf, told AFP by phone that the reopening was “in general… good news”.
But he cautioned that shippers still needed details of what route vessels could take and in what order, citing fears of sea mines.
“One thousand ships cannot just go now to the entrance of the strait, that will be chaos. They (the Iranians) need to give clear orders,” said the spokesman, Nils Haupt.
“We would be ready to go very soon if some of these open questions can be solved within the weekend.”
Bloomberg data indicated there were about 770 vessels used for carrying commodities sending transponder signals inside the Gulf on Thursday, of which about 360 were oil and gas carriers.
Before the war, average daily crossings of the strait overall numbered about 120, according to industry journal Lloyd’s List.
‘Inaccurate’
Afer Iran’s announcement on Friday, US President Donald Trump said the Islamic republic had declared the waterway “fully open and ready for full passage”.
Jakob Larsen, chief security officer of major shipping association Bimco, said in a statement emailed to AFP that this claim was “inaccurate”.
“The status of mine threats in (Iran’s maritime) traffic separation scheme is unclear, and Bimco believes shipping companies should consider avoiding the area,” he said.
The secretary general of leading industry lobby the International Chamber of Shipping, Thomas Kazakos, said the announcement was “a positive step (but) there is still much uncertainty around what it means in practice”.
In a statement sent to AFP, he said it offered “a cautious measure of reassurance to” shippers and the thousands of seafarers stuck in the Gulf by the Middle East war for nearly seven weeks.
“It is essential that it marks the beginning of a broader and more durable return, beyond the current ceasefire, to freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors,” he said.
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