Connect with us

Fashion

US reconciliation act to raise real potential output: CBO

Published

on

US reconciliation act to raise real potential output: CBO



At the end of 2028, the level of US real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to be about 0.1 per cent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration, according to the ‘CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028’ published this month.

Real GDP is the nation’s economic output adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices.

In the near term, the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration on aggregate demand and the labour supply drive most of the changes in the agency’s forecast. The reconciliation act reduced taxes for the vast majority of US households.

US growth in 2026 would be 0.4 pp higher than in the last projections by the non-partisan CBO, reflecting the 2025 reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the reducing impact of uncertainty about US trade policy.
In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would drag growth.

In 2025, the growth of real GDP is projected to be 0.5 percentage points lower in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January 2025 projections, primarily because the negative effects on output stemming from new tariffs and lower net immigration more than offset the positive effects of provisions of the reconciliation act this year.

In 2026, the reconciliation act’s effects boosting growth dominate the effects slowing it that stem from the reduction in net immigration. Waning of the elevated uncertainty about trade policy provides modest support to economic growth next year as supply chains begin to adjust to the higher tariffs.

Growth next year would be 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous projections, reflecting the reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the diminishing effects of uncertainty about US trade policy.

In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration on the labour force and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would act as a drag on growth.

Partially offsetting those effects, an increase in domestic production, driven by higher tariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth in those years is roughly the same as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections.

In addition to boosting aggregate demand in the near term, the reconciliation act will, in CBO’s assessment, raise real potential output by increasing the supply of labour, the capital stock and the and total factor productivity (TFP), the average real output per combined unit of labour and capital, excluding the effects of cyclical changes in the economy.

Meanwhile, the CBO estimated that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would shrink the US economy and add to inflation while reducing the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion.

In a published letter to Senate Democrats, the CBO estimated the budgetary and economic effects of tariff increases that were implemented through executive actions between January 6 and May 13.

The analysis found that shrinking of the US economy would vary but said that tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 0.06 per cent each year, adding that real GDP will be 0.6 per cent lower in a decade than CBO’s earlier forecasts.

“In CBO’s assessment, the changes in tariffs will reduce the size of the US economy—in part because of tariffs imposed by other countries in response to the increases in US tariffs. After accounting for that change in the size of the economy, CBO estimates that the changes in tariffs will reduce total federal deficits by $2.8 trillion,” the letter said.

“Reductions in investment and productivity stemming from higher tariffs will be partially offset by increases in resources available for private investment resulting from the reduction in federal borrowing. CBO estimates that, on net, real (inflation-adjusted) economic output in the United States will fall as a result,” it added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Fashion

South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand

Published

on

South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand



In the Mumbai market, cotton yarn prices remained unchanged as the loom sector slowed production. Although spinning mills are looking to raise their selling rates, they have not found sufficient demand. A Mumbai-based trader told Fibre*Fashion, “Power and auto looms are facing limited fabric buying from the garment industry. Export prospects are still unclear. Domestic demand is also insufficient to support any price rise. Mills are comfortable with falling cotton prices, while buyers remain silent on yarn purchases.”

In Mumbai, ** carded yarn of warp and weft varieties were traded at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.**) and ****;*,****,*** per * kg (~$**.****.**) (excluding GST), respectively. Other prices include ** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, ** carded weft at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.** per *.* kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg and **/** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, according to trade sources.



Source link

Continue Reading

Fashion

Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India

Published

on

Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India



The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding, which could allow near zero-tariff access for Bangladeshi garments to the American market subject to specific riders, has triggered debate within India’s textile and apparel industry. The real gains from zero tariffs may be limited due to high freight costs, longer lead times, and insufficient capacity in Bangladesh’s spinning and weaving/knitting sectors.

Bangladesh is already among the top suppliers of apparel to the US, particularly in basic knit and woven categories such as T-shirts, trousers and sweaters. A tariff advantage, even if modest, could sharpen its price competitiveness in high-volume, price-sensitive segments dominated by mass retailers.

The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding offering near zero-tariff access for garments has sparked debate in India’s textile sector.
While Bangladesh may gain a price edge in basic apparel, industry leaders believe the effective advantage could be limited to 2–3 per cent due to raw material dependence, capacity constraints and logistics costs.

However, Indian industry leaders argue that the net gain for Bangladesh may be restricted to around 2–3 per cent in effective competitiveness. They point to structural constraints, including Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. A significant share of its fabric and yarn requirements is sourced from China and India, limiting flexibility in rules-of-origin compliance if strict value-addition conditions are attached to the deal.

Capacity limitations in spinning, weaving and man-made fibre processing are also seen as bottlenecks. While Bangladesh has built scale in garmenting, its upstream integration remains narrower than India’s diversified fibre-to-fashion base. Indian exporters emphasise that integrated supply chains offer advantages in speed, customisation and smaller batch production.

Logistics and lead times may further temper expectations. Distance from major US ports, coupled with infrastructure pressures and global shipping volatility, could offset part of the tariff benefit. In contrast, Indian suppliers have been investing in port connectivity, digital compliance systems and flexible production models to strengthen reliability.

Industry representatives also highlight that US buyers are increasingly factoring in sustainability, traceability and geopolitical risk. India’s growing adoption of renewable energy in textile clusters, compliance with global standards and broader product depth may help it retain strategic sourcing partnerships.

While some diversion of orders in basic categories cannot be ruled out, exporters believe the overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive. The consensus view is that tariff preference alone is unlikely to override considerations of scale, compliance, diversification and long-term supply-chain resilience.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



Source link

Continue Reading

Fashion

US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole

Published

on

US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole



United States (US) Senator Bill Cassidy, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, have introduced the ‘Last Sale Valuation Act,’ legislation aimed at closing a long-standing customs loophole that allows importers to underpay duties by declaring goods at artificially low values. The act would require tariffs to be assessed on the final sale value of imported goods rather than earlier transactions in complex overseas supply chains.

“This bill protects Louisiana workers and American businesses, ensuring loopholes don’t hold them back,” Dr Cassidy said in a press release.

US Senators Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse have introduced the Last Sale Valuation Act to close the ‘first sale’ customs loophole that lets importers underpay duties.
The bipartisan bill would base tariffs on final sale values, strengthen US Customs enforcement and curb duty evasion.
Supporters say it will protect American manufacturers, workers and federal revenue.

If passed, the bipartisan measure would grant clearer enforcement authority to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), streamline valuation reviews and reduce disputes over documentation, while curbing mis-invoicing and related-party pricing schemes linked to tariff evasion and illicit financial activity.

The legislation has drawn support from the American Compass, the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

“Cassidy’s ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ strengthens customs valuation by assessing duties on the final transaction value of goods entering the US,” said Mark A DiPlacido, senior political economist at the American Compass, adding that closing the judicially created ‘first sale’ loophole would reduce duty evasion, simplify enforcement and increase customs revenue.

Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, said the bill is “an important first step in restoring customs integrity,” ensuring duties are paid on the true commercial value of imported goods and helping level the playing field for American manufacturers and workers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending