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US reconciliation act to raise real potential output: CBO

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US reconciliation act to raise real potential output: CBO



At the end of 2028, the level of US real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to be about 0.1 per cent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration, according to the ‘CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028’ published this month.

Real GDP is the nation’s economic output adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices.

In the near term, the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration on aggregate demand and the labour supply drive most of the changes in the agency’s forecast. The reconciliation act reduced taxes for the vast majority of US households.

US growth in 2026 would be 0.4 pp higher than in the last projections by the non-partisan CBO, reflecting the 2025 reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the reducing impact of uncertainty about US trade policy.
In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would drag growth.

In 2025, the growth of real GDP is projected to be 0.5 percentage points lower in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January 2025 projections, primarily because the negative effects on output stemming from new tariffs and lower net immigration more than offset the positive effects of provisions of the reconciliation act this year.

In 2026, the reconciliation act’s effects boosting growth dominate the effects slowing it that stem from the reduction in net immigration. Waning of the elevated uncertainty about trade policy provides modest support to economic growth next year as supply chains begin to adjust to the higher tariffs.

Growth next year would be 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous projections, reflecting the reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the diminishing effects of uncertainty about US trade policy.

In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration on the labour force and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would act as a drag on growth.

Partially offsetting those effects, an increase in domestic production, driven by higher tariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth in those years is roughly the same as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections.

In addition to boosting aggregate demand in the near term, the reconciliation act will, in CBO’s assessment, raise real potential output by increasing the supply of labour, the capital stock and the and total factor productivity (TFP), the average real output per combined unit of labour and capital, excluding the effects of cyclical changes in the economy.

Meanwhile, the CBO estimated that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would shrink the US economy and add to inflation while reducing the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion.

In a published letter to Senate Democrats, the CBO estimated the budgetary and economic effects of tariff increases that were implemented through executive actions between January 6 and May 13.

The analysis found that shrinking of the US economy would vary but said that tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 0.06 per cent each year, adding that real GDP will be 0.6 per cent lower in a decade than CBO’s earlier forecasts.

“In CBO’s assessment, the changes in tariffs will reduce the size of the US economy—in part because of tariffs imposed by other countries in response to the increases in US tariffs. After accounting for that change in the size of the economy, CBO estimates that the changes in tariffs will reduce total federal deficits by $2.8 trillion,” the letter said.

“Reductions in investment and productivity stemming from higher tariffs will be partially offset by increases in resources available for private investment resulting from the reduction in federal borrowing. CBO estimates that, on net, real (inflation-adjusted) economic output in the United States will fall as a result,” it added.

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Sweden’s H&M’s Q1 FY26 sales dip but margins improve on cost control

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Sweden’s H&M’s Q1 FY26 sales dip but margins improve on cost control



Swedish clothing house H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB has reported net sales of SEK 49,607 million (~$4.72 billion) in the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal 2026 (FY26) ended February 28, with sales in local currencies declining by 1 per cent year-on-year (YoY), alongside a roughly 4 per cent reduction in store count.

The gross profit reached SEK 25,138 million (~$2.39 billion), with the gross margin improving to 50.7 per cent from 49.1 per cent a year earlier, supported by lower markdown costs and more efficient sourcing.

H&M has reported net sales of SEK 49,607 million (~$4.72 billion) in Q1 FY26, with sales down 1 per cent in local currencies.
Improved cost control lifted gross margin to 50.7 per cent and operating profit rose 26 per cent.
The net profit increased to SEK 704 million (~$75.05 million), while inventory fell 16 per cent.
Currency effects weighed on revenue despite stronger margins and improving sales.

The operating profit rose by 26 per cent to SEK 1,512 million, lifting the operating margin to 3 per cent from 2.2 per cent. Selling and administrative expenses declined by 1 per cent in local currencies and by 9 per cent in SEK terms, reflecting continued cost discipline, H&M said in a press release.

The net profit after tax (PAT) increased to SEK 704 million (~$75.05 million), with earnings per share (EPS) improving to SEK 0.45 from SEK 0.37. Inventory management also showed progress, with stock-in-trade falling 16 per cent to SEK 34,608 million, indicating improved inventory productivity.

However, sales in SEK terms were impacted by a currency translation effect of just over 9 percentage points due to the strengthened Swedish krona. The quarter began with weaker demand following strong Black Friday trading, though sales trends improved towards the end, supported by spring collections.

“Good cost control and improved gross margin contributed to strengthened profitability in a quarter marked by cautious consumption and large currency translation effects,” said Daniel Erver, CEO at H&M.

Looking ahead, H&M expects March 2026 sales to rise by 1 per cent in local currencies. The company also highlighted its sustainability progress, noting that 32 per cent of materials used in 2025 were recycled, while 91 per cent were either recycled or sustainably sourced.

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EU-funded RegioGreenTex pushes 25 SME pilots to commercialisation

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EU-funded RegioGreenTex pushes 25 SME pilots to commercialisation



A total of 25 pilot investments led by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have progressed from the lab to near-market stage under RegioGreenTex, a three-year European Union (EU)-funded project that recently concluded. Most of these are expected to be commercialised within one to three years.

Twenty five pilot investments led by SMEs moved from lab to near‑market under RegioGreenTex, an EU-funded project that ended recently.
Most of these are expected to commercialise in one to three years.
Five regional hubs mapped SME needs and developed services and value chains as well as tools to help SMEs.
These are now open for collaboration and the pilot portfolio is primed for investors and adopters.

At least 70 per cent of the EU grant was allocated to SMEs. A total of 43 partners from 11 regions across eight countries participated in the project, leveraging their expertise towards a common goal of advancing industry and research.

RegioGreenTex was one of the first projects funded under the Interregional Innovation Investments (I3) Instrument programme that focused on process, service and business model innovation, developing advanced textile recycling technologies, regional recycling hubs, and a digital ecosystem for matchmaking and capacity building.

Five regional hubs mapped SME needs and developed services and value chains as well as tools that keep helping SMEs, an official release said.

The RegioGreenTex Digital Tool keeps matchmaking, sharing trainings and hosting the participants’ knowledge base.

The Waste Wizard shows how artificial intelligence-enhanced matchmaking can link leftover textiles with the right reuse or recycling routes.

From recycled-content yarn processes (Tintex) to Recycrom low-impact dyeing (Officina39), ultrasonic quilting for full recyclability (Rovitex) and hybrid recycled-fibre yarns (Hilaturas Mar), the pilots showed concrete, repeatable ways to cut impact without losing performance.

The hubs are now open for collaboration, the digital tools are live and the pilot portfolio is primed for investors and adopters.

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Higher energy costs to slow India FY27 growth to 6.5%: ICRA

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Higher energy costs to slow India FY27 growth to 6.5%: ICRA



India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to moderate to 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026-27 (FY27) from the projected 7.5 per cent in FY26 owing to the adverse impact of elevated energy prices and concerns around energy availability, according to ICRA Ratings.

While trends in high frequency indicators for January-February 2026 appear favourable, the heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Middle East conflict casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India amid high import dependency for items like crude oil, natural gas and fertilisers, it noted.

India’s FY27 GDP growth is likely to slow to 6.5 per cent from the projected 7.5 per cent in FY26 owing to the impact of higher energy prices and concerns around energy availability, ICRA Ratings said.
The heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Iran war casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India.
If the conflict lasts longer, the adverse effects could widen across sectors.

If the conflict lasts for an extended period, the adverse implications of the same could widen across sectors, amid an uptick in input costs and the consequent impact on profitability of the India corporate sector.

Amid the projected uptrend in the consumer price index-based inflation in FY27 with risks tilted to the upside, ICRA Ratings expects an extended pause on the policy rates by the central bank’s monetary policy committee in the fiscal despite the anticipated softening in the GDP growth. However, it expects the Reserve Bank of India to continue to intervene on the liquidity front during FY27.

The available data for January–February FY2026 indicate a positive trend across most non-agricultural indicators, with the year-on-year performance of 12 out of 18 indicators improving compared to the third quarter of FY26, while the remaining six deteriorated.

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