Business
US tariffs impact on jobs: Nearly 3 lakh workers at risk in textiles and gems? Here’s what experts say – Times of India
The steep tariffs imposed on Indian exports to the US have triggered sharp debate among staffing specialists, with some flagging the risk of immediate job losses and others suggesting that India’s domestic demand and trade diversification could soften the blow.“The recent imposition of additional US tariffs is expected to have a direct and substantial impact on India’s employment landscape. This will especially impact those industries relying heavily on the US market for business continuity and growth,” Genius HRTech founder, chairman and managing director R P Yadav told PTI.
Yadav identified textiles, auto components, agriculture, and gems and jewellery as the most vulnerable sectors, warning that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will absorb the heaviest shock. He estimated that 2,00,000 to 3,00,000 jobs are at immediate risk, with textiles alone—being labour-intensive—potentially losing as many as 1,00,000 positions if the tariff regime remains in force for over six months.He further cautioned that gems and jewellery hubs in Surat and SEEPZ, Mumbai, could also face widespread job losses due to shrinking demand and rising costs in the US market.However, not all experts foresee an employment crisis. TeamLease Services Senior Vice President Balasubramanian Anantha Narayanan argued that India’s reliance on domestic consumption makes its job market less vulnerable than China’s.“At this point in time, we aren’t seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. This also by extension means that our jobs are largely in service of domestic demand too, with the exception of some sectors like ITeS among others. Our exports to the USA are USD 87 billion, which is roughly about 2.2 per cent of our overall GDP. Largely pharma, electronics etc. won’t be affected for now, which will further limit the export exposure to industries such as textiles, gems and jewellery among others,” he said, quoted PTI.He also noted that the tariffs are yet to take effect, leaving space for possible negotiations. “On the other side, we’ve also had several positives by way of the recently closed FTA with the UK and other countries. Even if these US tariffs do come about, we’ll definitely figure out a way of redirecting or diversifying our trade to other markets. Therefore, at this point in time, we aren’t seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. It’s an evolving situation and we’ll get to know more in due course of time,” Narayanan said.According to him, the broader drag on employment stems from global consumption slowdown, tariff uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.CIEL HR MD and CEO Aditya Mishra said the tariff scenario is unsettling exporters in sectors deeply tied to the American market—including electronics, textiles, gems and jewellery, auto components, leather, footwear, shrimp and engineering goods.“Even industries outside the direct tariff ambit, like pharmaceuticals, are feeling the ripple effect through costlier upstream chemicals and materials,” Mishra said. He added that uncertainty could persist through the third quarter of this financial year as negotiations unfold.While Mishra does not expect widespread layoffs, he noted that companies are already adopting cost-control measures—cutting discretionary spends, streamlining production, freezing hiring, and putting pressure on temporary and contractual roles. “The immediate pressure will be on temporary and contract roles, particularly shop-floor workers, artisans, sales and logistics staff, and some mid-level managers in export-led units. This will have a cascading effect on thousands of MSMEs in the supply chain, which collectively account for a large share of employment,” he warned.Mishra also pointed to potential spillover risks for IT and global capability centres (GCCs). “The IT sector is already experiencing slow spending and hiring, and this additional uncertainty could delay its recovery further. GCCs are likely to take a cautious approach to hiring and investments until there is greater clarity on trade negotiations and market stability. If the tariff situation persists, India’s market share in the US could shrink, leading to longer-term repercussions for exporters and the industries that depend on them,” he said.
New Delhi: Central government employees across India are eagerly waiting for the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission, which is expected to revise salaries, pensions, and allowances. These revisions are decided based on the fitment factor, a key multiplier that takes into account inflation, employee needs, and the government’s financial capacity. Inflation plays an important role in these revisions, as it directly affects cost of living and the real value of salaries.
The history of pay commissions shows how inflation and wages have moved together over the years. The 5th Pay Commission was implemented in 1997, when average inflation stood at 7 percent and the minimum monthly pay was fixed at Rs 2,550. While this commission simplified pay scales and introduced dearness relief, salaries eventually lagged behind inflation. In 2008, during the 6th Pay Commission, inflation was around 8–10 percent and the minimum monthly pay was raised to Rs 7,000, an increase of Rs 4,450. This commission brought in structural reforms by introducing pay bands and grade pay, resulting in sharper salary hikes.
The 7th Pay Commission came into effect in 2016, with inflation averaging 5–6 percent. At this time, the minimum salary was set at Rs 18,000, a jump of Rs 11,000 from the previous commission. The 7th Pay Commission introduced the pay matrix system, made pension rules more generous, and even sparked conversations about work-life balance.
Looking ahead, the 8th Pay Commission is tentatively expected to be implemented in 2026, with inflation projected at around 6–7 percent. According to Ambit Institutional Equities, salaries could rise by 30–34 percent under the new commission. However, the government has not yet released official details. Reports suggest that the revised pay scale will account for inflation, economic growth, and a push towards fairer compensation across different roles.
The structure of government salaries typically includes four major components. Basic pay makes up about 51.5 percent of total income, while dearness allowance accounts for nearly 30.9 percent. House rent allowance contributes around 15.4 percent, and transport allowance adds another 2.2 percent. Together, these allowances and revisions are designed to cushion employees against inflation and help maintain their standard of living.
With the 8th Pay Commission on the horizon, government employees are hopeful of a significant salary revision that reflects rising costs and economic realities. While projections hint at a 30–34 percent hike, the final decision rests with the government, and employees across the country are waiting keenly for an official announcement.
Mumbai: Tata Motors on Monday reported a 2% year-on-year (YoY) decline in total domestic sales, which fell to 68,482 units in August from 70,006 units in the same month last year. According to the company’s statement, overall sales, including exports, stood at 73,178 units, slightly higher than the 71,693 units recorded in August 2024.
The decline in domestic performance was primarily driven by the passenger vehicle (PV) segment, where sales fell 7% to 41,001 units, down from 44,142 units a year ago. In contrast, the commercial vehicle (CV) segment performed strongly, with domestic CV sales rising 6 per cent to 27,481 units, while total CV sales, including exports, jumped 10 per cent YoY to 29,863 units.
Medium and heavy commercial vehicles, including trucks and buses, also recorded growth, with domestic sales at 13,405 units against 12,008 units in August 2024. Despite the dip in overall passenger vehicle numbers, Tata Motors’ electric vehicle (EV) portfolio continued to shine.
The company recorded its highest-ever monthly EV sales at 8,540 units, marking a 44 per cent jump compared to August previous year. Tata Motors said the record reflects growing consumer confidence in EVs and the accelerating shift towards green, zero-emission mobility.
Total passenger vehicle sales, including exports and EVs, stood at 43,315 units in August 2025, down 3 per cent from 44,486 units in the year-ago period. Tata Motors said it remains focused on expanding its EV offerings and strengthening its commercial vehicle business, even as passenger car demand saw some moderation during the month.
Meanwhile, last month, the Indian automobile manufacturer announced that it has re-entered South Africa’s passenger vehicle market after six years, launching three SUVs and an entry-level compact hatchback.
“Our return to South Africa marks a significant milestone in Tata Motors’ global journey. We are excited to bring our new-generation of vehicles — engineered with cutting-edge technology, uncompromising safety, and modern design — to a market that values safety, quality and innovation. With Motus as our preferred partner, we are confident in delivering a superior ownership experience that resonates with South African consumers and contributes meaningfully to the local economy,” Shailesh Chandra, Managing Director, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle Ltd. and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility Ltd., said on August 20.
Debbie JacksonBBC Scotland News
Getty ImagesPeak rail fares have been scrapped on ScotRail trains, meaning passengers will no longer pay higher prices for travelling on busy weekday trains.
Until now, many ScotRail tickets were based on the time of travel. Edinburgh to Glasgow peak times will be almost 50% cheaper, with trips between Perth and Dundee a third lower.
The Scottish government-owned operator said its aim was to get more commuters out of cars and onto trains.
Season tickets and fares on routes with peak time prices are unchanged. Multi-journey flexipass tickets have been adjusted with smaller savings.
Peak ScotRail fares used to cover tickets bought for travel before 09:15 on weekdays and certain services between 16:42 and 18:30.
A pilot scheme scrapping peak-time fares, a policy championed by the Scottish Greens, was introduced in 2023 but ended in September 2024 after ministers said the costs of the subsidy could not be justified.
However, in his programme for government speech in May, First Minister John Swinney announced that peak fares would again be scrapped.
Speaking at the launch of the scheme in Edinburgh on Monday, he said it would help people to move “from their cars onto trains”, which would provide environmental benefits.
He added: “This is financially sustainable because it’s an investment in the rail network and it’s an investment in the people of Scotland.
“People in Scotland simply travelling from Edinburgh to Glasgow on a daily basis will see their travel costs fall by almost 50%. That’s a massive saving when people are struggling financially.”
ScotRail ticketing will also be more straightforward and flexible under the new system, the firm has said.
How is scrapping peak fares being paid for?
ScotRail has been owned and run by the Scottish government since 2022.
In October 2023 the rail firm started a year-long trial of scrapping peak fares with the aim of persuading more people to swap car journeys for rail travel.
Last year, Scottish ministers announced the trial had “limited success” and would not be extended.
An evaluation of the first nine months of the trial found passenger levels increased by a maximum of about 6.8%.
This represented around four million extra rail journeys, of which two million are journeys that would previously have been made by private car.
However, the scheme required a 10% rise to be self-financing.
Scotland’s Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop also said at the time that the pilot “primarily benefited existing train passengers and those with medium to higher incomes”.
The evaluation found the estimated cost of the scheme was “in the annual range of £25m to £30m per annum (in 2024 prices) with the possibility of being as large as £40m”.
Swinney said he expected the annual cost to be between £40m to £45m each year and lead to a “huge saving” for individuals.
If the new scheme does not become self-financing through an increase in passenger numbers, the costs will be met from the ScotRail budget.
This is made up of revenue from passenger fares and the £1.6bn the Scottish government puts into rail services every year.
Getty ImagesJoanne Maguire, managing director at ScotRail told BBC Scotland News: “We are really excited at the opportunity to get more customers out of their cars and onto the railway.
“If you are travelling from Edinburgh to Glasgow you will see a saving of about 50%.
“From Inverkeithing to Edinburgh, you will save 40% and between Inverness and Elgin it is 35% – so it’s great news for our passengers.”
Ms Maguire said the trial period had seen an increase in passenger numbers and that ScotRail had enjoyed a successful summer of moving customers around to numerous big leisure events.
She added that the goal now was to grow the commuter passenger base.
‘Deeply unfair tax’
Several passengers at Glasgow’s Queen Street station told BBC Scotland News they were unaware that peak time fares had been dropped – but welcomed the move.
Student Robbie McCormack said: “I commute every day for college and it’s quite expensive.
“I’ll be able to save throughout the week, save more college money and get something else for lunch.”
Passenger Tommy Whitelaw travels across Scotland giving talks to charities and care homes.
He said the end of peak fares removed the limits on when many people could travel.
He added: “It makes a difference to everybody, its our duty to make everything achievable for people.
“The cost of living shrinks our world, this is one way to open it up a wee bit.”
Susan Watts, from Leeds, told BBC Your Voice that peak fares should be scrapped UK-wide.
She said: “Our complicated fare system is enough to put anyone off using trains.
“In Italy, I paid the same price for a ticket when I turned up an hour before as if I’d booked months earlier – the price is just the price.”
Green MSP Mark Ruskell said peak rail fares were a “deeply unfair tax” on people who had no say over when they needed to travel.
“I am delighted that we are finally rid of them,” he said.
“I’m glad that the Scottish government has finally listened to the Greens, the trade unions and the rail users who were responsible for securing the initial pilot.”
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