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US–Venezuela Conflict: What It Could Mean For Crude Oil Prices And India’s Economy
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US forces captured Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores on drug charges. India faces minimal impact due to reduced Venezuelan oil imports.
US action against Venezuela has put crude oil markets on alert, with potential ripple effects for India’s economy.
US–Venezuela Conflict: The conflict between the United States of America and Venezuela has escalated after the former’s military raided and captured the latter’s President, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife.
US President Donald Trump said that Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were captured in Caracas during a US military operation on January 03, have been indicted on charges of alleged “drug trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracies” in the Southern District of New York, and will face trial.
Trump said that Maduro and his wife “will soon face the full might of American justice and stand trial on American soil”. According to an unsealed indictment shared by Attorney General Pamela Bondi on X, Maduro and Flores face multiple counts of statutory allegations related to “drug trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracies”.
A plane carrying Maduro landed near New York City on Saturday night, and he was helicoptered to the city before being taken by a large convoy to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn under a heavy police guard.
Venezuela’s Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to assume the powers and duties of acting president after the US removed Nicolas Maduro, CNN reported.
With a sudden geopolitical turmoil and being a major oil supplier country, there are concerns regarding the spike in crude oil prices, which could have an impact on the Indian economy.
Will the US-Venezuela Crisis Have an Impact On India?
Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), in a note, said that India is unlikely to be affected by the ongoing crisis in Venezuela in terms of material economy or energy.
The trade body said that India has been reducing crude shipments from Venezuela in recent years. It added that since 2019, when US sanctions took effect, the country reduced imports and commercial activity, and curbed trade from the South American nation.
In 2024–25, India’s imports from Venezuela declined sharply to $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million of the total. This represented a steep 81.3 percent fall from imports worth $1.4 billion in 2023–24.
India’s exports to Venezuela remained modest at $95.3 million during the year, led by pharmaceutical shipments valued at $41.4 million.
Given the limited trade exposure, ongoing sanctions and the significant geographical distance, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said the latest developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any material impact on India’s economy or its energy security.
India May Benefit If Sanctions Ease
India is expected to re-emerge as a key buyer if Venezuelan supplies return. “If sanctions are eased… trade flows can resume rapidly,” said Kpler analyst Nikhil Dubey, noting that Indian refineries are technically well suited to process Venezuelan heavy crude, as quoted by PTI.
Crude Oil Prices May Jump In Near Future
Crude oil prices is likely to see a gap-up opening when the market opens on Monday, January 5, according to market experts told LiveMint.
“The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities,” said Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth.
January 04, 2026, 16:14 IST
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Business
Tehran accused of ‘weaponising’ Hormuz as oil gains ahead of US-Iran talks
The Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open despite the US–Iran ceasefire, according to the head of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company.
Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive officer of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said in a post on LinkedIn that “access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled” through the world’s most critical waterway.
“The weaponisation of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand. This would set a dangerous precedent for the world – undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy,” Mr Al Jaber wrote.
“An estimated 230 vessels sit loaded with oil and ready to sail. They, and every vessel that follows, must be free to navigate this corridor without condition. No country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms. Iran has made clear – through both its statements and actions – that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.”
Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, after US and Israeli attacks in late February, leaving around 1,400 ships stranded on either side.
However, despite the US–Iran truce agreed on Wednesday, which supposedly included reopening the strait, very few ships have actually moved.
This uncertainty has pushed energy prices higher and caused stock markets across Asia and Europe to fall, as fears grow that the truce may already be breaking down and tensions could escalate again.
“Every day the strait remains restricted, the consequences compound. Supply is delayed, markets tighten, prices rise. The impact is felt beyond energy markets, in economies, industries and households worldwide. Every day matters. Every delay deepens the disruption,” Mr Al Jaber wrote.
Asian stocks mostly rose on Friday, following gains on Wall Street, while oil prices also edged higher amid a fragile Iran ceasefire and upcoming US-Iran talks. Major indices, including South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted strong gains, with Japanese retailer Fast Retailing surging after raising profit forecasts.
London’s FTSE 100, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite Index also climbed, even as China reported softer-than-expected inflation.
Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped, while Taiwan and India saw moderate gains.
Oil and gas prices have swung sharply amid the ongoing uncertainty. Brent crude jumped more than 4 per cent to above $99 (£74) a barrel on Thursday, while US crude surged 8 per cent to over $102, reversing a steep drop the previous day when Brent had fallen more than 13 per cent to a four-week low.
“The initial wave of relief following president Trump’s two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts,” IG Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
“All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan.”
Gas markets showed a similar pattern: UK gas prices edged up after a 15 per cent plunge, and European natural gas futures rebounded from recent lows.
Tensions remained high as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon, which have already caused heavy casualties.
Business
OpenAI halts UK data centre project over energy costs and red tape
ChatGPT developer OpenAI has halted plans for a significant UK data centre project, citing high energy costs and regulatory challenges as barriers to investment.
The US technology giant had intended to establish its “Stargate” data centre initiative within a new artificial intelligence growth zone in the north-east of England.
The venture was slated for multiple sites, including Cobalt Park near Newcastle and Blyth.
However, OpenAI said the plans are now on hold, awaiting “the right conditions” to facilitate long-term infrastructure investment across the UK.
A spokesman for OpenAI said: “We see huge potential for the UK’s AI future. London is home to our largest international research hub, and we support the Government’s ambition to be an AI leader.
“AI compute is foundational to that goal – we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”
The reference to energy costs come at a time when prices are being pushed higher by the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in March that the UK was one of the nations particularly exposed to soaring wholesale costs because of its reliance on gas-fired power, as opposed to sources such as nuclear and renewable energy.
Data centres are powered by very large amounts of energy so are more likely to be exposed to volatile prices.
OpenAI added: “In the meantime, we are investing in talent and expanding our local presence, while also delivering on the commitments under our MOU (memorandum of understanding) with the Government to adopt frontier AI in UK public services.”
Its Stargate project aims to invest billions of dollars into AI infrastructure in the US, with funding from OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX and partnering with tech giants including Nvidia and Microsoft.
Building it into the UK came as part of a landmark tech deal between Britain and the US, announced last September amid President Donald Trump’s second state visit.
The deal also included a 30 billion US dollar (£22.3 billion) pledge from Microsoft, the largest ever made by the company in the UK, to fund the expansion of Britain’s AI infrastructure.
Conservative MP and shadow science minister Ben Spencer said: “When global firms cite high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty as reasons to walk away, it tells you everything about the direction of travel.
“For too long, Labour have prioritised courting big tech headlines while neglecting our domestic start-ups, but also the fundamentals that actually attract investment at home.”
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