Business
When is the Budget and what might be in it?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged she is considering tax rises and spending cuts ahead of her autumn Budget on 26 November.
Before the 2024 general election, Labour promised not to increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT for working people.
But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says she will “almost certainly” have to raise taxes to make up a £22bn shortfall in the government’s finances.
The chancellor of the exchequer’s Budget statement outlines government plans for raising or cutting taxes. It also includes big decisions about spending on public services such as health, schools and police.
The statement is made to MPs in the House of Commons. It usually starts at about 12:30 UK time – after Prime Minister’s Questions – and lasts for about an hour.
The Leader of the Opposition, Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch, will give an immediate response. MPs will then debate the measures for four days, before voting on them.
There has been a lot of speculation that Reeves will have to raise taxes because she needs more money in order to meet her self-imposed rules for government finances.
She has two main rules, which she describes as “non-negotiable”:
- Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
- To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament
The IFS said finding £22bn would allow the government to maintain the £10bn buffer it currently has, but argued there was a “strong case” for trying to increase it further.
The £10bn margin Reeves left herself after her Spring Statement in March was one of the lowest a chancellor has given themselves since 2010, with the average for the period standing at £30bn.
Income Tax and National Insurance (NI)
The government could extend the current freeze on income tax and NI thresholds, which is due to end in 2028.
Freezing the thresholds means that, as salaries rise over time, more people reach an income level at which they start paying tax or qualify for higher rates. This is often referred to as a “stealth tax”.
Speaking to the BBC in September, Reeves did not rule out extending the freeze.
The Resolution Foundation think tank – which has close links to some members of the government – believes some personal taxes will have to rise.
As part of a package of measures, it recommended cutting 2p from the employee NI rate, while adding the same amount to income tax.
Such a move would potentially affect pensioners, landlords and the self-employed more than workers. Their tax would increase but they wouldn’t benefit from a matched cut to NI.
Reeves has signalled that she is likely to focus on wealthy individuals, arguing “those with the broadest shoulders should pay their fair share”.
She may change the rules for limited liability partnerships (LLPs), which are sometimes used by high earning professionals such as lawyers and accountants.
Those who operate as LLPs are treated as self-employed and do not have to pay employers’ NI. The Times reported that changing this could raise £2bn.
Help with the cost of living
In October, Reeves told the BBC that she would take “targeted action to deal with cost of living challenges” while inflation remains high.
The BBC understands that the government could intervene to bring down gas and electricity bills. This could happen by reducing some regulatory levies currently added to bills, or by cutting the current 5% rate of VAT charged on energy.
The Sunday Times previously reported that it might fall to zero.
Property taxes
Reports suggest the government may reform property taxes. This could include replacing stamp duty – a tax buyers pay on properties above a certain value in England and Northern Ireland – with a property tax.
Landlords could have to pay more taxes, and council tax could be replaced.
Some people selling their main residence may have to pay capital gains tax.
Youth employment guarantee
In September, Reeves said that young people who have been out of work for 18 months will be given paid placements to help them secure full-time employment.
Isa reform
In July, the chancellor ruled out any immediate reform to cash Isas (Individual Savings Accounts). There had been speculation that she wanted to reduce the annual allowance to push people into investing in shares instead.
However, the FT has reported that she may announce a cut in the cash ISA limit from the current £20,000 to £10,000.
Pension changes
There has also been speculation about possible changes to pension rules, such as the level of tax relief available to savers and the size of the cash lump sum which can be withdrawn.
Cutting the higher rate tax relief on pension contributions would save the Treasury money, but may make pension savings less attractive.
Business taxes
The TUC, the umbrella group for trade unions in the UK, has called for higher taxes on online gaming companies and on banks’ profits.
In September, the chancellor told ITV News that “there is a case for gambling firms paying more”.
The Sunday Times reported that William Hill owner Evoke could close up to 200 of the chain’s betting shops in an attempt to stem losses, with the exact number being influenced by any changes to taxes on the sector.
Inheritance tax
In last year’s Budget, the government said that from April 2026, inherited agricultural assets worth more than £1m, which were previously exempt from inheritance tax, would be taxed at a rate of 20%.
In October, the Sunday Times reported that ministers were exploring changes to this, However, Farming Minister Dame Angela Eagle told the BBC’s Farming Today programme there was “no likelihood” of the policy being changed.
The Labour government says that boosting the economy is a key priority.
A growing economy usually means people spend more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid and workers get better pay rises.
The UK economy has been slowing in recent months after a strong start to 2025.
The latest figures show that the economy grew by 0.1% in August, after a 0.1% contraction in July.
Over the three months to August, UK GDP grew by 0.3%, down from the 0.6% growth seen between March and May.
Meanwhile, government borrowing – the difference between public spending and tax income – reached £20.2bn in September. That was the highest level seen for the month in five years, driven by an increase in debt interest payments.
Prices are also still rising faster than expected.
Inflation held steady at 3.8% in the year to September, the same as in July and August, which was lower than expected, but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
In August, the Bank cut interest rates for the fifth time in a year, taking the cost of borrowing to the lowest level for more than two years.
It made the cut because of concerns that the jobs market was weakening, with data showing job vacancies were continuing to fall and wage growth was slowing.
However, the Bank held rates at its next meeting in September, arguing the UK was “not out of the woods” on inflation.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the UK was set to be the second-fastest-growing major economy in 2025.
However, it also predicted that the UK will face the highest rate of inflation among G7 nations in both 2025 and 2026, driven by rising energy and utility bills.
Business
Stock market today (March 20, 2026): Nifty50 opens above 23,200; BSE Sensex up over 700 points – The Times of India
Stock market today: Benchmark indices Nifty50 and BSE Sensex opened in green on Friday after a big selloff on Thursday that saw markets tank over 3%. While Nifty50 opened above 23,200, BSE Sensex rose over 700 points, just shy of 75,000. At 9:16 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 23,229.15, up 227 points or 0.99%. BSE Sensex was at 74,945.45, up 738 points or 0.99%.Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “Market has been oscillating between some hope and fear during the last four days. The gains which Nifty accumulated in the previous three days have been completely wiped out with the 775 point loss yesterday. This oscillation between hope and fear is likely to continue in the near-term.Today there is potential for the market to move up since hope of de-escalation is back. Israel PM’s remarks yesterday indicate that there won’t be further attacks on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. This has cooled the Brent crude to $ 106 from the peak of $118 yesterday. The HDFC issue impacted Nifty Bank significantly yesterday and it also contributed to the crash in Nifty. This is likely to be a storm in a tea cup. Even though the uncertainty continues, the market construct is ripe for a bounce back today. Beaten down financials and autos are set for a bounce back.”Indian equity markets tumbled sharply on Thursday, breaking a three-day gaining streak, as escalating tensions in West Asia sparked a global risk-off sentiment. Analysts said the market is entering a phase of heightened vulnerability, with investor confidence increasingly influenced by fast-moving geopolitical developments and a surge in crude oil prices.Asian markets opened higher on Friday after US equities recovered from their intraday lows and oil prices eased. However, Wall Street had closed lower on Thursday, dragged down by declines in Micron Technology and Tesla, as rising oil prices stoked inflation worries and dampened expectations of future interest rate cuts.Gold prices edged up on Friday but were still set for a third straight weekly decline, pressured by a strong dollar and the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which has reduced hopes of near-term monetary easing. Oil prices, meanwhile, fell on Friday after major European countries and Japan signalled their willingness to support measures to ensure safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US outlined steps to boost supply.Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 7,558 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors provided some support, purchasing shares worth Rs 3,864 crore.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises
Britain is to “step up” defensive support for Gulf states after Iran attacked energy sites across the region in a “serious escalation” of the war that could push up inflation and interest rates.
The price of Brent crude climbed as high as $119 a barrel and European gas prices briefly surged by 35 per cent after Iran pounded Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure with missiles.
Interest rates were held at 3.75 per cent instead of the previously expected cut, as the Bank of England warned that the war could push inflation as high as 3.5 per cent by July on the back of rising energy bills, and that rates could rise – creating misery for homeowners.
It came as:
- US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “ungrateful” European allies should be thanking Donald Trump for the war
- Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
- Oman called the US/Israel attacks a “grave miscalculation”
- Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares
Iran’s attacks were in retaliation to an Israeli strike on the vital South Pars gas field, which drew condemnation from the Gulf states as well as Tehran. It was the first attack of the war so far on an energy production facility. Tehran fired missiles at multiple energy sites across the Gulf, including a Saudi oil refinery, Qatari gas facilities and two more oil refineries in Kuwait.
While Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron called for de-escalation, President Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars facility if Iran did not halt its retaliatory attacks, repeating his claim that US forces had “obliterated” Iran’s navy and military, adding that the war was “substantially ahead of schedule”. He denied that plans were being made to send more American troops to the region.
John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Tehran’s tit-for-tat responses threatened to further destabilise the region and Europe’s economies. He called them a “serious escalation”, adding: “They further destabilise the region and we will step up the defensive support that we can offer to those Gulf states.”
British forces are already deployed to the Middle East, with RAF jets flying defensive sorties against Iranian drones across the Gulf and British air defence systems protecting critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. UK military planners have also joined US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for the world’s oil and gas.But there were signs of growing frustration towards Washington’s war aims in the Gulf states, with Oman’s foreign minister claiming that the conflict was President Trump’s “greatest miscalculation”.
In the most scathing attack on Washington’s foreign policy yet by a Gulf state, Badr Albusaidi said “this is not America’s war” and criticised Mr Trump for supporting Israel. Writing in The Economist, he called on American allies to help extricate it from the conflict, which has continued for a third week despite failing to achieve the US and Israel’s stated aim of instigating regime change in Tehran or stopping its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has warned that it may have to put up interest rates if the war continues to drive up inflation and unemployment. Its governor, Andrew Bailey, said the impact was already being felt by consumers as petrol prices surge and that he is “ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2 per cent target”. That would pave the way for a rate hike as early as the end of April.
Bets on the financial markets suggest a 50/50 chance that Britain will face higher interest rates from next month – and the possibility of two more rises by the end of the year.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Markets are now pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance that April’s meeting will see rates rise to 4 per cent with the potential for two additional rate hikes by the end of the year. But no one has a crystal ball. No one knows how long the conflict will last or the amount of damage that could be inflicted on crucial energy infrastructure by the time it ends.”
Business
Watch: How oil and gas prices are pushing up the cost of living
From fuel to mortgages, the BBC looks at how oil and gas prices could push up the cost of living.
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