Business
When is the Budget and what might be in it?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged she is considering tax rises and spending cuts ahead of her autumn Budget on 26 November.
Before the 2024 general election, Labour promised not to increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT for working people.
But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says she will “almost certainly” have to raise taxes to make up a £22bn shortfall in the government’s finances.
The chancellor of the exchequer’s Budget statement outlines government plans for raising or cutting taxes. It also includes big decisions about spending on public services such as health, schools and police.
The statement is made to MPs in the House of Commons. It usually starts at about 12:30 UK time – after Prime Minister’s Questions – and lasts for about an hour.
The Leader of the Opposition, Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch, will give an immediate response. MPs will then debate the measures for four days, before voting on them.
There has been a lot of speculation that Reeves will have to raise taxes because she needs more money in order to meet her self-imposed rules for government finances.
She has two main rules, which she describes as “non-negotiable”:
- Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
- To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament
The IFS said finding £22bn would allow the government to maintain the £10bn buffer it currently has, but argued there was a “strong case” for trying to increase it further.
The £10bn margin Reeves left herself after her Spring Statement in March was one of the lowest a chancellor has given themselves since 2010, with the average for the period standing at £30bn.
Income Tax and National Insurance (NI)
The government could extend the current freeze on income tax and NI thresholds, which is due to end in 2028.
Freezing the thresholds means that, as salaries rise over time, more people reach an income level at which they start paying tax or qualify for higher rates. This is often referred to as a “stealth tax”.
Speaking to the BBC in September, Reeves did not rule out extending the freeze.
The Resolution Foundation think tank – which has close links to some members of the government – believes some personal taxes will have to rise.
As part of a package of measures, it recommended cutting 2p from the employee NI rate, while adding the same amount to income tax.
Such a move would potentially affect pensioners, landlords and the self-employed more than workers. Their tax would increase but they wouldn’t benefit from a matched cut to NI.
Reeves has signalled that she is likely to focus on wealthy individuals, arguing “those with the broadest shoulders should pay their fair share”.
She may change the rules for limited liability partnerships (LLPs), which are sometimes used by high earning professionals such as lawyers and accountants.
Those who operate as LLPs are treated as self-employed and do not have to pay employers’ NI. The Times reported that changing this could raise £2bn.
Help with the cost of living
In October, Reeves told the BBC that she would take “targeted action to deal with cost of living challenges” while inflation remains high.
The BBC understands that the government could intervene to bring down gas and electricity bills. This could happen by reducing some regulatory levies currently added to bills, or by cutting the current 5% rate of VAT charged on energy.
The Sunday Times previously reported that it might fall to zero.
Property taxes
Reports suggest the government may reform property taxes. This could include replacing stamp duty – a tax buyers pay on properties above a certain value in England and Northern Ireland – with a property tax.
Landlords could have to pay more taxes, and council tax could be replaced.
Some people selling their main residence may have to pay capital gains tax.
Youth employment guarantee
In September, Reeves said that young people who have been out of work for 18 months will be given paid placements to help them secure full-time employment.
Isa reform
In July, the chancellor ruled out any immediate reform to cash Isas (Individual Savings Accounts). There had been speculation that she wanted to reduce the annual allowance to push people into investing in shares instead.
However, the FT has reported that she may announce a cut in the cash ISA limit from the current £20,000 to £10,000.
Pension changes
There has also been speculation about possible changes to pension rules, such as the level of tax relief available to savers and the size of the cash lump sum which can be withdrawn.
Cutting the higher rate tax relief on pension contributions would save the Treasury money, but may make pension savings less attractive.
Business taxes
The TUC, the umbrella group for trade unions in the UK, has called for higher taxes on online gaming companies and on banks’ profits.
In September, the chancellor told ITV News that “there is a case for gambling firms paying more”.
The Sunday Times reported that William Hill owner Evoke could close up to 200 of the chain’s betting shops in an attempt to stem losses, with the exact number being influenced by any changes to taxes on the sector.
Inheritance tax
In last year’s Budget, the government said that from April 2026, inherited agricultural assets worth more than £1m, which were previously exempt from inheritance tax, would be taxed at a rate of 20%.
In October, the Sunday Times reported that ministers were exploring changes to this, However, Farming Minister Dame Angela Eagle told the BBC’s Farming Today programme there was “no likelihood” of the policy being changed.
The Labour government says that boosting the economy is a key priority.
A growing economy usually means people spend more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid and workers get better pay rises.
The UK economy has been slowing in recent months after a strong start to 2025.
The latest figures show that the economy grew by 0.1% in August, after a 0.1% contraction in July.
Over the three months to August, UK GDP grew by 0.3%, down from the 0.6% growth seen between March and May.
Meanwhile, government borrowing – the difference between public spending and tax income – reached £20.2bn in September. That was the highest level seen for the month in five years, driven by an increase in debt interest payments.
Prices are also still rising faster than expected.
Inflation held steady at 3.8% in the year to September, the same as in July and August, which was lower than expected, but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
In August, the Bank cut interest rates for the fifth time in a year, taking the cost of borrowing to the lowest level for more than two years.
It made the cut because of concerns that the jobs market was weakening, with data showing job vacancies were continuing to fall and wage growth was slowing.
However, the Bank held rates at its next meeting in September, arguing the UK was “not out of the woods” on inflation.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the UK was set to be the second-fastest-growing major economy in 2025.
However, it also predicted that the UK will face the highest rate of inflation among G7 nations in both 2025 and 2026, driven by rising energy and utility bills.
Business
Oil prices drop below 100 dollars a barrel on renewed hopes over peace deal
Oil prices have fallen sharply to below 100 US dollars a barrel on fresh hopes of an end to the Iran war and unblocking of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
The cost of benchmark Brent crude dropped 11% to under 98 dollars a barrel in afternoon trading on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump said he was pausing efforts to guide stranded ships out of the strait to finalise a deal with Iran on ending the conflict.
But he confirmed a US blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place while talks were held to end the war.
Stock markets across the UK and Europe surged in response, with London’s FTSE 100 Index soaring 2.6% to 10485.9.
In France, the Cac 40 was 3.3% higher and Germany’s Dax was 2.8% higher.
Investor sentiment was boosted on reports that Iranian officials were travelling to China ahead of a summit between Mr Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
A ceasefire with Iran is already in place, but it has been increasingly fragile.
The US military is trying to reopen a path in the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow oil tankers to resume shipments from the Persian Gulf.
The blockage of the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is carried, has sent oil and energy prices soaring worldwide.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG, said: “There does seem to have been some real progress on key issues, and perhaps a pathway has been found that strikes a deal amenable to both sides.
“Such a result would allow markets to go back to focusing on earnings growth and a recovery in economic momentum, putting the worries of the last two months behind them.”
Long-term UK government borrowing costs also eased back, as gilts recovered from Tuesday’s sell-off thanks to optimism over inflation concerns should the Iran war come to an end.
The yield on 30-year UK government bonds, also known as gilts, fell back to 5.63%, having reached their highest level since 1998 on Tuesday, at 5.798%.
Ten-year gilt yields fell to 4.94%, having hit a six-week high of 5.102% on Tuesday.
Gilt yields move counter to the value of the bonds, meaning their prices fall when yields rise.
Business
Sebi sets Rs 20,000 crore threshold for ‘significant indices’; Sensex, Nifty among benchmarks covered – The Times of India
Markets regulator Sebi has introduced a new framework to classify stock market benchmarks as “significant indices” if mutual fund schemes tracking them have a daily average cumulative assets under management (AUM) of more than Rs 20,000 crore for each of the preceding six months, PTI reported.The move is aimed at strengthening transparency, governance and accountability in the index ecosystem.“It is specified that a Benchmark or Index (including index of indices) based on listed securities shall be considered as ‘significant Indices’, if the daily average cumulative AUM tracking the Benchmark or Index across schemes of Mutual Fund(s) exceeds Rs 20,000 crore for each of the past six months, ending on June 30 and December 31 each year,” Sebi said in a circular.The regulator said the threshold will be reviewed on a half-yearly basis, and once classified as significant, an index will continue in that category unless its tracked AUM falls below the threshold for three consecutive years.The framework follows the introduction of the Sebi (Index Providers) Regulations, 2024, which govern entities administering such indices.Sebi also released an initial list of indices that qualify under the new norms. These include major benchmarks such as the BSE Sensex, Nifty 50, Nifty 500 and BSE 500, along with several sectoral, debt and hybrid indices managed by NSE Indices Ltd, BSE Index Services Pvt Ltd and CRISIL.Under the new rules, index providers offering significant indices must apply for Sebi registration within six months.However, indices already notified or authorised as benchmarks by the Reserve Bank of India under relevant RBI provisions have been exempted from this requirement.Existing index providers can continue operations during the transition phase if they file registration applications within the stipulated timeline.Sebi also said entities already registered in another category with the regulator but engaged in index-related activities will have to create a separate legal entity within two years to undertake index provider operations.The regulator clarified that grievance redressal mechanisms under the new regulations will apply only to significant indices administered by Sebi-registered index providers.
Business
UK services industry faces ‘short-lived’ rebound as costs rise sharply
Growth in the UK’s services sector rebounded last month with business activity picking up, but firms face a “short-lived” recovery amid surging costs and lower demand linked to war in the Middle East, a new survey has shown.
Experts cautioned that the outlook for firms may be weaker after a rush of activity in April.
The S&P Global UK services PMI survey showed a reading of 52.7 in April, up from 50.5 the previous month.
Any reading above 50.0 means the sector is growing while any reading below signals it is contracting.
Activity across the industry, which spans businesses from hospitality and leisure to healthcare and transport, has been increasing for almost a year.
But while the latest reading marked an improvement from March – when the US-Israel’s conflict with Iran escalated – it signals a slower rate of growth than at the start of the year.
Businesses taking part in the survey, which is watched closely by economists, cited worries about intensifying pressures on inflation, global supply shortages and elevated borrowing costs as factors holding back business and consumer demand in April.
Some firms said export sales were lower due to disruptions to business travel and weaker demand in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, others pointed out resilient global demand for technology services while backlogs of work also decreased.
But the survey revealed that cost pressures ramped up for businesses in the service industry last month.
Costs for companies rose at the fastest pace since November 2022, with firms widely attributing the increased bills to fuel costs and higher prices for raw materials including metals and plastics, which have been driven up by soaring energy prices since the start of the war.
Many firms also cited pressure from higher wages, following the increase to the national minimum wage at the start of April.
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said April’s “modest recovery” for the industry could “easily prove short-lived as new business intakes remained subdued in comparison to the start of 2026”.
Mr Moore said: “Survey respondents widely noted that the Middle East conflict and subsequent global supply chain disruptions had weighed heavily on business and consumer confidence.”
Matt Swannell, chief economist for the Item Club, agreed that there were “already some signs that this jump will be short-lived as businesses reported little improvement in new work amidst weak domestic and foreign demand”.
“We think that the outlook for private sector activity is gloomier,” he went on.
“A sharp rise in inflation will cause households’ real incomes to fall and spending growth to slow.
“Supply chain disruption, rising costs and lingering geopolitical uncertainty will cause some businesses to put their investment plans on hold.”
Mr Swannell added that the survey suggests the Bank of England will prefer to keep interest rates held steady for the rest of the year, but that there was the potential for a hike in the summer.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said firms showed “resilience” last month, adding: “However, the rebound is partly fuelled by a rush of activity before price rises and supply shortages start to bite.”
He said future interest rate hikes were “more likely” as a result, but that “everything depends on how energy prices move going forward”.
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