Sports
Who’s ready for Thanksgiving Day football? Picks, predictions and X factors for all three games
The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.
Ahead of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside each locker room with key storylines and a look back at each team’s history playing on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research provides optimistic stats for all six teams, along with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes bold predictions, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for the three games.
Let’s start with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record 23rd time.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: They are underdogs for the first time this season. They are the only team in the NFL that has been favored in each of their games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already won more division games (two) than they did all of last season, when they were swept by the Lions and Vikings and split with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit will be looking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his team are looking forward to another shot at facing their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, where the Lions lead the all-time series versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are thankful for: Their defense has generated pressure 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. That will be especially helpful against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 points when he has faced pressure this season (most in the NFL).
Stat the Lions are thankful for: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since entering the NFL in 2023, and he has the chance to join rare company Thursday. With one touchdown, Gibbs would become the fifth player in NFL history to record 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three NFL seasons. The other four are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Hutchinson will be held to two or fewer pass-rush wins. He has just a 13% pass rush win rate at edge this season — his pressure tends to come later in the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles both rank in the top 15 in pass block win rate at the position. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in a great spot against the Lions. He has quietly become the safest option in a Packers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, clearing 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury and seeing at least four targets each week. Detroit has also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and their past four road games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to history — the 1962 game against the Lions might be the most significant even though it was the Packers’ only loss in a championship season — recency bias gives the nod to this game. The Packers were 8.5-point underdogs yet pulled off a 29-22 win. It was part of a closing stretch in which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after starting 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving game memory for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell finally ended the team’s seven-year holiday drought last season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions also got off to their best start in franchise history. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” moment, as he enjoyed a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes. — Woodyard
Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The Chiefs might’ve saved their season — and their chances of reaching the postseason — in their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday will be wasted if they cannot back it up in Dallas. “Now we just have to build off that momentum,” Mahomes said. “We’re playing a good team in the Cowboys. They can score some points and they have a lot of great players. It’s about rebounding fast. It’s going to be a lot of fun going to Dallas and getting to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has put up its best two efforts of the season in the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the challenge of Mahomes. While some consider the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they are still in the top 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go against Patrick Mahomes, you’ve got to have all your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “That boy, he’s elite. You can’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, because that’s where he’s at his best.” — Todd Archer
Stat the Chiefs are thankful for: They just broke their streak of not winning one-score games this season, defeating the Colts by a field goal in overtime despite trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Stat the Cowboys are thankful for: Their offense has usually been at its best when establishing the run and working out of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he’s tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for the most touchdown passes (13) on that play type. This Chiefs’ defense has allowed the worst completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Mahomes will record a 90-plus QBR for the first time this season. The Chiefs have been the best offense in the league versus zone coverage (0.27 EPA per play, much higher than their 0.10 against man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most in the NFL). — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs should lean on Mahomes and their pass catchers against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This obviously helps Rashee Rice, but managers in a bind should also consider Xavier Worthy, who has seen at least seven targets in three of his past four games despite averaging just 7.9 fantasy points during that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-3 ATS in their past three). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs don’t have many fond memories on Thanksgiving, but Allen passed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdowns list in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th score on a 1-yard dive into the end zone in the first quarter. His performance, including 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving game memory for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback came out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out in the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with less than 30 seconds to play when Longley, known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard touchdown to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Extra stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
1:23
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team’s success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” safety Geno Stone said. — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place on the NFL all-time rushing list. He is going against a Bengals defense that is allowing 156 yards rushing per game, which is the second worst in the league. “How many game balls can you give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh said. “Maybe we’ll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don’t know. But he’s going to get more yards.” In his past five games against Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game and scored four touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley
Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That’s currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson might be 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals’ defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. — Walder
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should play
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most to running backs and the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one of four teams with just one Thanksgiving game in their franchise history. That game at the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was full of eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby
Thanksgiving game memory for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the first time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming one of the most controversial plays in league history. With the Ravens leading 13-7 in the third quarter, Jones was running back a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted area that separates the sideline from the playing field, with his back turned to the action and his right foot squarely in the field of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the end zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It’s just one of those unfortunate moments of life,” Tomlin said five years ago. “I was watching the jumbotron and lost track of where I was. Such is life.” — Hensley
Extra stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe injury … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday
Semi-final hero Finn Allen said New Zealand’s thumping demi-final win over South Africa was a “huge confidence booster” ahead of going for their maiden T20 World Cup title in Sunday’s final.
Opener Allen hit the fastest-ever T20 World Cup century, off 33 balls, to give his side a crushing nine-wicket win over South Africa and set up a final against India or England in Ahmedabad on Sunday.
Allen blasted 10 fours and eight sixes as New Zealand raced to their victory target of 170 with 7.1 overs to spare at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens.
It was a bruising defeat for 2024 runners-up South Africa, who had been unbeaten in the tournament.
“They fight hard, they come hard at us, they’ve got good tall, fast bowlers and it makes it challenging for us,” Allen said of Aiden Markram’s South Africa.
“Their boys hit the ball hard, so to get one over them is a huge confidence booster for us going into Sunday. They’ve been the in-form team the whole tournament.”
The Auckland-born Allen rose to the occasion in the knockout match after ordinary outings in the tournament apart from his unbeaten 84 against the UAE in a group fixture.
Allen said his heroics in India would have kept his parents and the nation awake to cheer the team.
“I’m sure my parents are up watching the whole game. Hopefully they’re proud.
“But I think as a nation, I think hopefully everyone gets behind us and rallies around us for Sunday,” said Allen.
The final will begin at around 2.30am on Monday in New Zealand.
“Obviously, difficult time for people to watch back home but I’m sure people were keeping tabs on the game and hopefully they can get up and have a Monday off at work and watch the final.”
Allen put on 117 with opening partner Tim Seifert, who made 58, to pummel the opposition attack that included high-quality pacemen Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi.
‘Best seat in the house’
Seifert was the early aggressor as he raced to 41 off 21 balls before Allen took over and finished with two fours, two sixes and a four to raise his hundred and seal victory.
Allen said batting with Seifert makes life easy.
“He’s in incredible form, he’s an incredible player and I think he’s just showing the world what he can do,” said Allen.
“And I think that makes it easy for me to sit back and have the best seat in the house. So, yeah, it’s good fun batting with Timmy.”
New Zealand squeaked into the semi-finals on net run-rate ahead of Pakistan and lost to South Africa by seven wickets in the group stage.
But Allen said a five-match T20 series in India that the visitors lost 4-1 ahead of the World Cup prepared them for the grind.
“I think it shows the importance of that India series that the boys played before the World Cup,” he said.
“Five games on all black soil (pitches) and I think it just shows that as a team we get up for the fight (in) those important fixtures.”
A number of prominent basketball coaches, including NBA champions Steve Kerr and Doc Rivers, signed a public letter released Wednesday contending that political interference in universities threatens to undermine college athletics.
“College sports unite us as a nation, drawing out team spirit and shared values of fair play,” the letter said. “Campuses – big and small, public and private, two- and four-year – are a bedrock foundation for the role sports play in American life. Protecting university independence safeguards this proud tradition.”
Kerr and Rivers are joined in signing the letter by former coaches Jim Boeheim and Muffet McGraw (both of whom have won NCAA basketball titles), former Michigan coach John Beilein, Harvard coach and former Duke All-American Tommy Amaker, and Phil Martelli, who coached perennial NCAA tournament teams at St. Joseph’s. Head men’s basketball coach James Jones of Yale and Judith Sweet, the first woman elected as president of the NCAA, are also among the signees for the group.
The coaches and other athletic administrators who signed the letter said that political interference harms university culture, and that includes college athletics. They point to cuts to funding for research, censorship, intimidation of university leaders and faculty and having federal officers deployed to college campuses as examples of that interference.
“Right now, at both the federal and state levels, acts of political interference threaten the independence of our colleges and universities,” the letter said.
The letter asks that leaders and fans of college sports urge elected officials to support academic independence.
“When students are afraid to speak their minds, they cannot give their all,” the coaches wrote. “When campuses are polarized, it’s hard to maintain the ‘one team’ spirit we instill in the locker room. Unprecedented political pressure on colleges and universities undercuts the values we have sought to instill in student-athletes.”
The letter is on the website of Stand For Campus Freedom, an organization that describes itself as a nonpartisan project “that holds universities accountable to their highest ideals, resists political coercion and strengthens America’s leadership on the world stage.”
The United States women’s national team’s 1-0 victory over Canada on Wednesday was not as dominant of a display as eight months ago, when the Americans ran their northern neighbors off the pitch in Washington, D.C. It was, however, an equally important benchmark for the Americans as they turn the corner toward the 2027 Women’s World Cup.
Experimentation and inexperience have been the operative words for the USWNT over the past year as head coach Emma Hayes trotted out new players — 32 debuts awarded in her first 32 games in charge heading into this tournament. But Wednesday, and this SheBelieves Cup, have been about refinement — about depth and maturity developing before the world’s eyes.
“It was one of my favorite performances, because they’re growing up,” Hayes said of her team after Wednesday’s victory.
Forward Ally Sentnor scored the game’s lone goal 10 minutes into the second half on Wednesday, taking advantage of her start in the wide-open battle for the USWNT’s No. 9 role. She now has three goals in four games this calendar year.
– Do USWNT newbies at SheBelieves Cup have a shot at World Cup next year?
– Women’s Asian Cup talking points: Japan looking ominously good
– Dove: What are CAF and Morocco doing with WAFCON 2026?
Sentnor was one of the USWNT’s starters with the most to prove on Wednesday in Columbus, Ohio, as Hayes aims to figure out who she can rely on as the 2027 World Cup creeps closer. She earned Hayes’ praise after the game for a wise performance.
Sentnor nearly scored in the first half on corner kick setup identical to the one that led to her goal. She also led the USWNT’s waves of successful high pressure that forced mistakes from Canada, and that pressure led to Sentnor creating a one-on-one opportunity moments before half-time.
She missed that shot at the near post, but Hayes’ noted the forward’s resolve in forgetting about the mistake and burying her goal shortly after halftime.
Gisele Thompson also started at fullback for the USWNT and was asked to frequently join the attack in another major cap early in the 20-year-old’s career. Thompson went the full 90 minutes for the second time in four days, which Hayes said was intentional because she told Thompson that she needs to be more durable to play regularly for the USWNT.
Thompson and Sentnor were two of four changes from the U.S. lineup that beat Canada 3-0 last July. Wednesday’s USWNT was imperfect, especially in the first half, when the Americans looked disconnected in the final third and failed to capitalize on the pressure that they successfully applied high up the field. There were errors in the back too early on, which allowed Canada to briefly build confidence.
There was a mature undertone to the USWNT’s win on Wednesday, however. Canada’s struggles to create opportunities aside, the USWNT had the mark of a team on a journey from what has felt like open tryouts to a more established group that is finding the best version of itself in a tournament setting.
Hayes offered a peek into this vision the day before the game, when she gushed about the progress of Emma Sears.
Sears was a second-round pick in the 2024 NWSL Draft by Racing Louisville FC who wasn’t on many radars to be a breakout professional, let alone international.
It was around the time of that Canada game last year that Hayes spoke about the progress that she needed to see from Sears. Ahead of Wednesday’s rematch against Canada, Hayes said she just told Sears this week that if the World Cup started today, she would be one of the first players off the bench.
Sears entered Wednesday’s match in the 69th minute and almost immediately progressed the ball from penalty box to penalty box to earn a corner kick. The question for Sears and several teammates is now less about whether they will make the roster and more about how much and in which scenarios they will play.
Sears, for example, now has 16 caps for the USWNT; Sentnor has 17 caps.
They, along with the likes of budding midfielder Claire Hutton — who started again on Wednesday, as she did against Canada in July — blended in well with the established players like midfielders Sam Coffey and Rose Lavelle, and defender Naomi Girma. Alyssa Thompson, one of the in-betweeners who isn’t new but isn’t a veteran, continued to be dynamic and dangerous on the wing.
Just like last July, Lavelle was electric in the middle of the park on Wednesday. She was such a menacing force that Canada coach Casey Stoney admitted Lavelle was the reason that Canada needed to change its shape to two holding midfielders.
Lavelle, whose international breakout came in the SheBelieves Cup nearly a decade ago, is now the 30-year-old veteran in the squad. She has had her best (and healthiest) year in recent memory since returning from ankle surgery last spring.
“Everybody respects Rose for so many reasons, and I love that she is leaning into being this [leader] too, because the team needs it,” Hayes said. “If you think about the players from Ally Sentnor to Gisele — even Alyssa, Claire Hutton — they are really progressing, their maturity is developing because of players like Rose ensuring that they feel the high challenge of the environment, but most importantly the high challenge of veteran leadership.”
Hayes might have rolled out her best available lineup on Wednesday, give or take a player. It was a mix of newly minted veterans and young players who are mostly now trying to prove that they can handle games like this — tournament soccer on short rest against a solid opponent.
The Americans comfortably saw out the 1-0 victory with no signs of panic or fatigue in sight. That resolve, as much as the victory or any set piece success, will have Hayes smiling her way to New Jersey for Saturday’s SheBelieves Cup finale against Colombia. It will also bring her one step closer to a clearer vision of what next year’s World Cup team might look like.
US’ Wolverine Worldwide 2025 revenue rises 6.8% on Active Group growth
Brooklyn Beckham finally reacts to special birthday wish
Extreme heat threatens health, jobs in Indian textile sector: Report
India Us Trade Deal: Fresh look at India-US trade deal? May be ‘rebalanced’ if circumstances change, says Piyush Goyal – The Times of India
What are Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities?
Attock Cement’s acquisition approved | The Express Tribune
-
Business6 days ago
India Us Trade Deal: Fresh look at India-US trade deal? May be ‘rebalanced’ if circumstances change, says Piyush Goyal – The Times of India
-
Business7 days ago
Attock Cement’s acquisition approved | The Express Tribune
-
Politics7 days agoWhat are Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities?
-
Politics1 week agoUS arrests ex-Air Force pilot for ‘training’ Chinese military
-
Business1 week agoHouseholds set for lower energy bills amid price cap shake-up
-
Fashion1 week agoOECD GDP growth slows to 0.3% in Q4 amid mixed trends
-
Fashion7 days agoPolicy easing drives Argentina’s garment import surge in 2025
-
Sports6 days agoLPGA legend shares her feelings about US women’s Olympic wins: ‘Gets me really emotional’