The Miami Dolphins announced Monday they will release quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at the start of the new league year on Wednesday, and it didn’t take long for signs to point to Tagovailoa heading to the Atlanta Falcons.

With Michael Penix Jr., who was the No. 8 pick in 2024, nursing a torn left ACL that makes him questionable to start the season, the Falcons turned to another left-handed quarterback who battled criticism last season.

Tagovailoa was 25th in QBR the last two seasons since signing a $112.4 million extension in 2024, but the Falcons are hoping he reverts back to his pre-extension performance, when he had the fifth-highest QBR from 2022-23.

Ever since he was hired in January, Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has been noncommittal about Tagovailoa’s potential return to the team. He said at the NFL combine that “everything is on the table” with the quarterback, including the possibility of a trade. The Dolphins tried to facilitate one, but with no buyers, they decided to outright release the 2023 NFL passing yards leader.

The start to Sullivan’s tenure in Miami has been punctuated by high-profile releases, with Tagovailoa following Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. All signs are pointing toward a reset year for the Dolphins — if not an outright rebuild, even if Sullivan said he doesn’t like to use either word.

NFL Nation Falcons reporter Marc Raimondi, Dolphins reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques, NFL insiders Ben Solak and Dan Graziano break down what’s next for the Dolphins and Falcons.

Why did the Dolphins release Tua? And why now?

As Sullivan and first-year head coach Jeff Hafley look to reset the team’s culture with their own vision, Tagovailoa was a looming relic of the previous regime, and an expensive one who was guaranteed $54 million this season.

After battling through multiple injuries in 2024, Tagovailoa was benched after throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in 14 games last season, casting doubt over his future with the team. His season was also marred by multiple faux pas in his dealings with the media, and he angered teammates when he publicly called unnamed players out for being late to player-led film sessions.

Releasing Tagovailoa now, albeit with a post-June 1 designation, allowed the Dolphins to begin their new quarterback search — a short one, as they agreed to terms with Malik Willis. — Louis-Jacques

How will Tagovailoa fit with the Falcons?

Tagovailoa is an interesting fit in Atlanta. He’s a left-handed quarterback, like Penix, which matters more than you’d think for keeping the playbook consistent and helping receivers adjust to the opposite spin on the ball.

Tagovailoa is not the sort of aggressive passer who works well with a jump-ball specialist like Drake London, but he is a quick-distribution underneath thrower who will execute Kevin Stefanski’s offense well. The Falcons need more after-the-catch playmakers, and they have already begun that search with the signing of free agent receiver Olamide Zaccheaus. — Solak

Will it be an open competition for the starting QB spot?

Everything will hinge on the health of Penix. If he is back from that torn ACL, then he and Tagovailoa will compete for the starting job.

If Penix is not healthy by August, then it figures to be Tagovailoa’s job to start the season and the Falcons will figure things out once Penix is back. Expect a competition at some point, if not right away. — Raimondi

What does this mean for Penix’s development and future?

It means this Falcons regime is not as committed to Penix as was the previous one, which is not surprising.

Former coach Raheem Morris and former general manager Terry Fontenot shocked the NFL by taking Penix at No. 8 overall in 2024, a month after guaranteeing Kirk Cousins a $100 million contract.

They had to tie their proverbial wagon to Penix. New coach Kevin Stefanski, new GM Ian Cunningham and new president of football Matt Ryan do not share that obligation.

Signing Tagovailoa does not mean the new-look Falcons don’t believe in Penix. But Atlanta is now hedging its bets, especially since Penix is coming off his third torn ACL in eight seasons. He tore his right ACL twice in college. Tagovailoa certainly has his own injury issues after several concussions, but at the veteran minimum, he can at the very least be a bridge.— Raimondi

How does releasing Tagovailoa affect the Dolphins’ salary cap space?

Significantly, and not in a good way. Releasing Tagovailoa will cost Miami $99.2 million in dead-money salary cap charges. The components of that are his $54 million in fully guaranteed 2026 salary plus an additional $45.2 million in prorated bonus money left over from the $42 million signing bonus he got in 2024 (three years left at $8.4 million per year) and the $25 million option bonus he got in 2025 (four years left at $5 million per year).

The Dolphins can break up the salary cap hit between this year and next year, but the $54 million salary all hits the 2026 cap. So if they designate Tagovailoa as a post-June 1 release, the Dolphins can take half of the $45.2 million bonus proration this year and half in 2027. So their choices are a) take the entire $99.2 million dead-money hit this year and be done with it, or b) take a $76.6 million dead-money hit this year and a $22.6 million dead-money hit in 2027.

When the Broncos cut Russell Wilson in 2024, the dead-money charge was $85 million, which was an all-time record until now. The Broncos absorbed $53 million of that on their 2024 cap and $32 million on their 2025 cap. Denver has made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and was the top seed in the AFC playoffs in 2025. That’s mainly because the Broncos found their starting quarterback in the 2024 draft with Bo Nix, but the point is that these numbers don’t need to be devastating for Miami.

The $53 million dead-money charge the Broncos took in 2024 for Wilson was about 21% of that year’s salary cap. The $76.6 million the Dolphins would take for Tua (if they designate him a post-June 1 cut) represents about 25% of this year’s cap. — Graziano