The Nobel literature prize to be announced on Thursday is likely to go to a Western male author this year, experts predict, after South Korea’s Han Kang last year became the first Asian woman to win.

Awarding the prize to another woman this year would make history: it has never gone to a woman two years in a row, and women are vastly under-represented among its laureates — just 18 out of 121 since it was first awarded in 1901.

But literary critics in Stockholm told AFP they therefore expect a Western man to get the nod this year, citing Australia’s Gerald Murnane, Romania’s Mircea Cartarescu, Hungary’s Laszlo Krasznahorkai and Peter Nadas as possibilities, as well as Swiss postmodernist Christian Kracht.

Murnane and Krasznahorkai meanwhile, have the lowest odds on betting sites, along with India’s Amitav Ghosh, whose name sailed up just two days before the announcement.

The 18-member Swedish Academy that awards the prize insists it does not take gender, nationality, or language into consideration.

But “even if they say that they don’t think in terms of representation, you can still look at the list (of past laureates) and see that it’s kind of ‘OK, this year was a European, now we can look a little further afield. And now we go back to Europe. Last year was a woman, let’s choose a man this year’,” Sveriges Radio culture critic Lina Kalmteg told AFP.

After a #MeToo scandal that rocked the Academy in 2018, every other laureate has been a woman, suggesting an effort to right past wrongs and improve the gender imbalance.

‘Bizarre masterpiece’

Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Swedish paper of reference Dagens Nyheter, told AFP he thought this year’s winner would be a man “from the Anglo-Saxon, German or French-language world”.

Christian Kracht, a 58-year-old German-language postmodernist author who writes about pop culture and consumerism, is a favourite in literary circles, he said.

At this year’s Gothenburg Book Fair, held annually a few weeks before the Nobel announcement, “many members of the Swedish Academy were there, sitting in the front row during his event”, Wiman said.

“And that is usually a sure sign,” he said, adding that the same thing happened when Austrian playwright Elfriede Jelinek won the prize in 2004.

Another writer getting a lot of attention in the run-up this year is Australia’s Gerald Murnane.

Born in 1939 in Melbourne, his work draws heavily on his own life experiences.

His novel “The Plains” (1982) delves into Australian landowners’ culture, described by the New Yorker as a “bizarre masterpiece” that feels more like a dream than a book.

“The question is whether he’ll answer the phone (when the Academy calls), I don’t know if he even has one,” joked Josefin de Gregorio, literary critic at Sweden’s other main daily Svenska Dagbladet.

“He’s never left Australia. He lives in the countryside, he doesn’t make himself very accessible,” she said.

“I hope he wins, I want more people to discover his wonderful work,” de Gregorio said.

Australian Aboriginal writer Alexis Wright has also been mentioned.

‘Unthinkable’

Other names that regularly make the rounds are Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, Canada’s Anne Carson, Chilean’s Raul Zurita, and Argentina’s Cesar Aira.

The last South American to win was Peru’s Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010, and the region could be overdue, Kalmteg told AFP.

She also mentioned Mexican authors Cristina Rivera Garza and Fernanda Melchor.

With no public shortlist and the prize committee’s deliberations sealed for 50 years, it is always difficult to predict which way the Academy is leaning.

It has a penchant for shining a spotlight on writers relatively unknown to a wider public, with Wiman noting that it was previously known for being “openly elitist, artistically”.

“Authors like Han Kang would have been unthinkable five or six years ago,” he said, noting that she was well-established internationally and only 53, while the Academy previously tended to honour older men.

The 2025 winner, who will take home a $1.2 million cheque, will be announced on Thursday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).

Israel and Hamas have agreed on  to the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza, a ceasefire and hostage deal that could be a first step toward ending a bloody two-year-old war that has roiled the Middle East.

Here are some details of what is known and not known so far:

20-point framework

The agreement on the initial stage of Trump’s 20-point framework resulted from indirect talks in Egypt, just a day after the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas’s attack on Israel.

Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas had signed off on the first phase of the plan and this would bring the release of all hostages, alive and dead, “very soon” and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the so-called yellow line in Gaza.

According to a senior Israeli security source, that is a boundary for an initial Israeli pullback under the Trump plan.

Hamas confirmed it had reached an agreement to end the war, that includes an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a hostage-prisoner exchange, but the group called on Trump and guarantor states to ensure Israel fully implements the ceasefire.

Key unknowns

Despite the hopes raised for ending the war, crucial details are yet to be spelled out.

These include the timing, a post-war administration for the Gaza Strip and the fate of Hamas.

There is no clear indication who will rule Gaza when the war ends. Netanyahu, Trump, Western and Arab states have ruled out a role for Hamas, which has run Gaza 2007.

Trump’s original 20-point plan envisions a role for the Palestinian Authority but only after it has undergone major reforms.

What’s next?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government on Thursday to approve the agreement.

A Hamas source said the living hostages would be handed over within 72 hours of the Israeli government approving the deal. Israel said the hostage release was expected to begin on Saturday. Of the 48 hostages, 20 are still thought to be alive.

A senior White House official said once Israel approves the deal it has to withdraw to the agreed line, which should take under 24 hours, after which the 72-hour clock would begin. The White House expects the hostages will begin getting released on Monday.

Hamas said earlier on Wednesday it had handed over its lists of the hostages it held and the Palestinian prisoners held by Israel that it wanted to be exchanged.

Trump is expected to travel to Egypt in the coming days as the White House said he was considering going to the region on Friday. Netanyahu has invited Trump to address Israel’s parliament and Trump told Axios he would be willing to do that.

The next phase of Trump’s plan calls for an international body, called the “Board of Peace,” to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration. It is to be led by Trump and include former British PM Tony Blair.

Risks

Successful completion of the deal would mark the biggest foreign policy achievement so far for Trump, who took office in January promising to quickly end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, only to find that they were more difficult to resolve than he had hoped.

Hamas has so far refused to discuss Israel’s demand that the group give up its arms. A Palestinian source said Hamas would reject this as long as Israeli troops occupy Palestinian land.

Two sources familiar with the talks confirmed that sticking points included the mechanism for the Israeli withdrawal, with Hamas seeking a clear timeline linked to the release of hostages and guarantees of a complete pullout by Israeli forces.

Within Gaza, Israel has dialled down its military campaign at Trump’s behest, but it has not halted strikes altogether.

Arab countries which back the plan say it must lead to eventual independence for a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu says will never happen.

Hamas has said it would relinquish Gaza governance only to a Palestinian technocrat government supervised by the Palestinian Authority and backed by Arab and Muslim countries. It rejects any role for Blair or foreign rule of Gaza.

The list of Palestinians that Hamas wants freed was expected to include some of the most prominent prisoners ever jailed by Israel, whose release had been off limits in previous ceasefires.

According to a Palestinian source close to the talks, the list includes Marwan al-Barghouti, a leader of the Fatah movement, and Ahmed Saadat, head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Both are serving multiple life sentences.

US President Donald Trump says Israel and Hamas have agreed the first phase of a Gaza peace plan after more than two years of war that killed tens of thousands and unleashed a major humanitarian crisis.

Here are some of the key moments in the conflict:

Hamas attacks

Hundreds of Hamas fighters infiltrate Israel at dawn on October 7, 2023, storming southern Israeli communities and a desert music festival with gunfire, rockets and grenades.

It results in the deaths of 1,219 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

They seize 251 hostages and take them back to Gaza. Israel´s military says 47 remain, many of them dead.

Ground offensive

Israel begins bombing and besieging Gaza. On October 13, it calls on civilians in the territory´s north to move south.

Almost all Gazans have been displaced during the war, according to the UN.

Israel begins a ground offensive on October 27.

More than two years later, Israel’s military campaign has killed at least 67,183 people, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, figures the United Nations considers credible.

The data does not distinguish between civilians and combatants but indicates that more than half of the dead are women and children.

Truce and hostage swap

A week-long truce between Israel and Hamas begins on November 24.

Hamas releases 105 hostages, mostly Israeli but also Thai workers, in return for 240 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

When the war resumes, Israel expands its operations into southern Gaza.

Regional spillover

Iran pounds Israel on April 13, 2024, with drones and missiles — its first-ever direct assault on Israel´s soil. The strikes are retaliation for an attack on its Damascus consulate, blamed on Israel.

Israel bombards a Yemeni port on July 20 after a drone attack on Tel Aviv by Iran-backed Huthi rebels who have been targeting shipping since November 2023 in solidarity with Gaza.

On September 17 and 18, hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Lebanese group Hezbollah exploded in an Israeli operation that Lebanese authorities say killed 39 and wounded thousands.

Israel escalates its air campaign in Lebanon and, on September 27, kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in southern Beirut.

Israel launches days later a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

On October 1, Iran fired a barrage of 200 missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Nasrallah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, assassinated on Iranian territory in July.

ICC warrants

On November 14, a United Nations Special Committee says Israel´s warfare in Gaza is consistent with the characteristics of “genocide”. Israel accuses the UN of bias.

The International Criminal Court issues on November 21 arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former defence minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif (likely already dead, as Hamas will confirm months later). Israel appeals.

Second ceasefire begins

A long-awaited truce between Israel and Hamas begins on January 19, 2025, allowing hundreds of thousands of war-weary displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.

When the first six-week phase ends on March 1, 33 Israeli hostages — including eight bodies — have been freed in exchange for some 1,800 Palestinians.

Israel allows more humanitarian aid into Gaza, which the UN says faces famine, but then cuts it off on March 2.

Israel-Iran war

Israel strikes Iranian nuclear and military installations on June 13, starting a 12-day conflict.

Washington enters the fray on June 22, hitting three nuclear sites. Two days later, a fragile ceasefire announced by Trump comes into effect.

Israel hits Qatar

Israel targets Hamas officials on September 9 in strikes on the capital of Qatar, a key mediator in the conflict in Gaza.

The strikes are condemned by the international community.

Shortly afterwards, Israel´s army launches a major ground operation in Gaza City.

Trump announces deal

Trump announces on October 8 that  Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of his peace plan.

The deal will see all hostages released and Israel redeploying troops to an agreed-upon line, with aid also entering the famine-stricken region.