Business
India’s Retail Inflation Likely To Ease Further In October: Report
New Delhi: India’s retail inflation is expected to fall further in October, supported by a high base effect, easing food prices, and the full impact of recent GST reforms, a new report has said. The data compiled by Union Bank of India suggests that inflationary pressures will only rise gradually in the coming months.
The bank said its projection for October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is currently tracking below 0.50 per cent. It also expects food inflation to drop sharply and remain in the negative zone during the winter months, as the impact of recent floods has been limited.
Inflation has already eased to an eight-year low, helped by lower food prices and the rationalisation of GST rates. The report lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 2.6 per cent from the earlier estimate of 3.1 per cent.
It added that inflation is likely to stay below the RBI’s target range for most of the year and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter due to base effects. In September, CPI — which measures the average change in retail prices of goods and services –showed a notable decline compared to the previous month, highlighting a broad moderation in price growth.
The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) stood at -2.28 per cent, indicating that food prices have been falling since June 2025. Data also showed that inflation in rural areas was 1.07 per cent, while urban inflation was slightly higher at 2.04 per cent.
Food inflation remained negative in both segments, at -2.17 per cent in rural areas and -2.47 per cent in urban regions, reflecting the impact of falling prices of vegetables and edible oils. The government attributed this decline to “favourable base effects” and lower prices of key food items such as vegetables, oils, fruits, cereals, pulses, eggs, and fuel.
Economists believe that if the current trend continues, India could maintain a low-inflation environment through the festive and winter seasons, supporting consumer demand and overall economic stability.
Business
Diwali 2025: Gold & silver likely to consolidate next week; Here’s what analysts said – The Times of India
After a record-breaking surge in both domestic and global markets, gold and silver prices are likely to see some consolidation and mild correction next week as festive demand tapers off and profit-booking sets in, analysts said.“Gold prices are likely to see some corrections/ consolidation as ongoing fundamentals are already priced in and physical demand wanes post mid-week,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd told PTI.He added that traders will closely track key global cues such as Chinese data, UK inflation, PMI releases, US consumer confidence, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the October 28–29 Fed policy meeting.Gold ended last week higher, supported by festive buying in India and strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, Mer noted that a “sharp corrective move was seen on Friday amid profit-booking as the rally looks overstretched now.”On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures rose Rs 5,644 or 4.65% last week, with December contracts hitting a record Rs 1,32,294 per 10 grams on Friday before settling at Rs 1,27,008, snapping a five-day record streak.According to Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One, “The shine in gold prices just does not stop as momentum has been on the rising side throughout 2025, supported by policy uncertainty, US tariffs, and a slowdown in the American economy.”Echoing similar sentiment, Karthick Jongadla, Investment Manager on smallcase and Founder of Quantace Research, said the rally was fueled by a softer dollar, easing bond yields, and safe-haven demand amid “lingering US-China trade noise and a US data/shutdown fog.”“Gold jumped to a new record this week. The MCX gold futures printed an intraday high of Rs 1,32,294 per 10 grams on October 17 and stayed firm into Dhanteras,” Jongadla said, adding that India’s gold reserves with the RBI have now crossed $100 billion, reflecting robust institutional interest.On the global front, Comex gold futures for December delivery hit a record $4,392 per ounce on Friday before settling at $4,213.30, down 2.12%.“Gold extended its meteoric rally to fresh record highs this week as investors rushed into safe-haven assets amid renewed fears about cracks in the US financial system after two regional banks disclosed loan irregularities linked to potential fraud,”said Riya Singh, Research Analyst – Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services.Silver too mirrored gold’s movement. MCX silver futures for December delivery hit a record Rs 1,70,415 per kilogram before closing at Rs 1,56,604, posting a weekly gain of Rs 10,138 or 6.92%.“Silver prices extended their bull run along with gold and were up over 15% in the week till Thursday, supported by reports of a supply crunch in the physical market and sustained ETF buying,” Mer of JM Financial said.“However, prices pared more than half the gains in a sharp sell-off on Friday which triggered profit-booking by investors. The rally in both bullions looks over-stretched and may see more correction ahead.”Globally, Comex silver futures hit $53.76 per ounce before retreating to $50.10, down 6% on Friday.“Silver prices touched record highs on Friday before retracing slightly, marking a remarkable run of nearly 87% for 2025,”Singh of Emkay Global noted. She added that ETF holdings have expanded by 117 million ounces this year to 833 million ounces, though accumulation appears to be plateauing.She also pointed out tight supply conditions in London, where more than 15 million ounces were withdrawn from Comex warehouses in New York last week to ease local shortages, even as ETF inflows of 11 million ounces further tightened supply.Analysts expect volatility to persist next week but maintain that the broader trend for precious metals remains positive, underpinned by macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank buying, and strong investor appetite for safe-haven assets.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Pritti MistryBusiness reporter
The government has announced plans to train and recruit more workers for the UK’s clean energy sector, promising to create 400,000 extra jobs by 2030.
Plumbers, electricians and welders are among 31 priority occupations that are “particularly in demand”, with employment in renewable, wind, solar and nuclear expected to double to 860,000 in five years, ministers have said.
Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said thousands of jobs were needed to develop Britain’s clean energy sector to “get bills down for good”.
Welcoming the proposals, Unite the union said: “Well-paid, secure work must be at the heart of any green transition.”
As part of the government’s strategy, five “technical excellence colleges” will be set up to train workers with clean energy skills, with £2.5m in funding going towards pilot schemes in Cheshire, Lincolnshire, and Pembrokeshire, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).
A new programme is to be launched to match veterans with careers in solar panel installation, wind turbine factories and nuclear power stations, while oil and gas workers could benefit from up to £20m from the UK and Scottish governments for bespoke careers training in clean energy roles.
PA MediaThere would be also be tailored schemes for ex-offenders, school leavers and the unemployed.
He said 10,000 extra jobs would be needed to support the construction of the Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk and described how the Siemen’s wind turbine factory in Hull was “booming”.
Miliband also told the BBC he stood by his pledge to reduce energy bills by £300 by 2030, after bills went up by 2% for millions across the UK under Ofgem’s latest price cap, which sets the maximum price that can be charged for each unit of gas and electricity for millions of househoulds in England, Scotland and Wales.
The increase for October to the end of December means a household using a typical amount of energy will pay £1,755 a year, up £35 a year.
In a statement, Miliband said the plan would bring “a new generation of good industrial jobs” to communities across the UK.
“Our plans will help create an economy in which there is no need to leave your hometown just to find a decent job.
“Thanks to this government’s commitment to clean energy, a generation of young people in our industrial heartlands can have well-paid, secure jobs, from plumbers to electricians and welders.”
According to DESNZ, jobs in the clean energy sector command average salaries of more than £50,000, compared to the UK average of £37,000.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said: “We’re giving workers the skills needed to switch to clean energy, which is good for them, good for industry, and will drive growth across the nation.
“Our new jobs plan will unlock real opportunities and ensure everyone has access to the training and support to secure the well-paid jobs that will power our country’s future.”
Christina McAnea, general secretary of Unison, said the government’s strategy could “help create a UK workforce with highly skilled, fairly paid and secure jobs”.
“Additional funding for apprenticeships and opportunities for young people are crucial too if the UK is to have a bright and clean energy future,” she added.
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted that Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and air fare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
On Friday, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the Pension Triple Lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
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