Business
Third-quarter earnings are indicating a divided economy
A Taco Bell restaurant in El Cerrito, California, US, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With more consumer companies preparing to report third-quarter earnings this week, Wall Street will be watching for signs of a bifurcated or “K-shaped” economy as consumers diverge in their spending behaviors.
There have been increasing signals that wealthier Americans are spending more while lower-income Americans are significantly paring back their spending. Lower-income consumers have been hit hardest by rising inflation and escalating prices on essentials, with September’s consumer price index report indicating a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%.
Shortly after the CPI report was released, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its second straight interest rate cut, lowering its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
Meanwhile, the country is entering the fifth week of the government shutdown, with many federal workers going without pay.
The Census Bureau estimated there were 35.9 million people in poverty in 2024, the most recent available data, with the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four coming in at $32,130. The median household income, meanwhile was $83,730 last year, according to the bureau.
The top 10% of households saw their income increase 4.2% between 2023 and 2024, but there was no meaningful change for the bottom 10% of households, the bureau said in September. There were approximately 33 million households in the top 10% of earners and another 33 million in the bottom 10% of earners as of last year.
Consumers with the highest purchasing power have benefited from stock market rallies and rising home values. Data from JPMorgan‘s Cost of Living Survey found that higher-income consumers reported stronger economic confidence readings for the next year.
Recent earnings reports from companies touching all corners of the economy have indicated the K-shaped trend is beginning to take hold. This week, companies like Yum Brands, McDonald’s, E.l.f. Beauty, Tapestry and Under Armour are preparing to release quarterly earnings reports and could report similar trends.
Last week, Chipotle reported it’s seeing consumers who make less than $100,000 a year, which represents roughly 40% of the company’s customer base, spending less frequently due to concerns about the economy and inflation. CEO Scott Boatwright said the company is seeing “consistent macroeconomic pressures” with a 0.8% decline in traffic for the quarter.
Coca-Cola said in its third-quarter earnings that pricier products like Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes are driving its growth. Procter & Gamble reported similar results, saying wealthier customers are buying more from club retailers, which sell bigger pack sizes, while lower-income shoppers are significantly pulling back.
And some of the companies reporting this week have already indicated they may be seeing similar behaviors. In early September, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the chain’s expansion of its value menu was due to a “two-tier economy.”
“Traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal … or they’re choosing to just eat at home,” he said.
The trend isn’t limited to just food and beverage, either. In the autos world, consumers who can afford to buy new vehicles are on a spree, while those who are more price constrained are sitting out. Defaults and repossessions are on the rise while the average price for a new vehicle is setting records.
And in the service industry, Hilton earlier this month reported that it saw a drop in revenue for its affordable brands while its luxury offerings performed exceedingly well. Still, CEO Christopher Nassetta told CNBC last month that he doesn’t expect bifurcation to last much longer.
“My own belief is that as we look into the fourth quarter and particularly into next year, we’re going to see a very big shift in those dynamics, meaning, I don’t think you’re going to continue to have this bifurcation,” Nassetta said. “That’s not to say I think the high end is going to get worse or bad. I just think the middle and the low end [are] going to move up.”
Correction: This article has been updated to correct the month of the CPI report.
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Ofcom is facing calls for an “outright ban” on “absurd” mid-contract price hikes after the Government separately asked the regulator to revisit its rules on the practice.
The calls follow O2 unexpectedly announcing it was raising prices by £2.50 a month for existing customers.
On Monday, Technology Secretary Liz Kendall wrote an open letter to Ofcom bosses asking them to review mid-contract price rises again.
She wrote: “As we discussed when we met earlier this month, driving down inflationary costs and protecting consumers are vitally important for this government.
“As such, I welcome both the action you took in January to increase transparency on how in-contract prices are presented in new contracts, and your statement yesterday expressing disappointment with O2’s price rises.
“I strongly agree they are against the spirit of your previous changes on pricing, and all the more disappointing given the current pressures on consumers.”
She added: “Nevertheless, I believe we need to go further, faster. I am keen that we look at in-contract price rises again.”
Ofcom has been given until November 7 to respond to Ms Kendall’s letter.
Ofcom said: “We share the Government’s concern that customers who face price rises must be treated fairly by mobile providers and they are empowered to exercise their right to switch penalty-free if they didn’t agree to them upfront.
“We will respond to the Secretary of State’s specific queries shortly.”
O2 said in a statement: “We appreciate that price changes are never welcome, but we have been fully transparent with our customers about this change, writing directly to them and providing the right to exit without penalty if they wish.”
Ofcom introduced new rules in January to crack down on phone and broadband providers increasing prices in the middle of a contract without warning.
But last week, O2 announced it would be raising its monthly prices by more than originally promised.
It was able to do this because the increase was not linked to inflation, and it has given customers 30 days to leave without penalty providing they continue to pay off the cost of their device.
O2 said it has not gone against the regulation and Ofcom’s rules do not stop providers from raising prices.
The firm said: “A price increase equivalent to 8p per day is greatly outweighed by the £700 million we invest each year into our mobile network, with UK consumers benefitting from an extremely competitive market and some of the lowest prices compared to international peers.”
Alex Tofts, broadband spokesman from comparison site Broadband Genie, said: “What we’re seeing from O2 and price rises from other major providers is a direct result of crude regulation that has been poorly thought out, with its implications not given enough consideration.
“The only real way to protect customers is to outright ban these absurd mid-contract price hikes. Some providers already offer fixed prices, so why can’t those with the biggest profit margins do the same?
“We fully back the call for Ofcom to revisit these regulations. Until then, we urge all consumers to check whether they’re still in contract.
“To be fair to Ofcom, the broadband switching process has become much easier thanks to the One Touch Switch system. One-in-three households are currently free to switch, and with many providers offering competitive new-customer discounts, now could be the best opportunity to protect your budget before further price rises take effect.”
Jennifer Meierhans,Business reporter and
Henry Zeffman,Chief political correspondent
PA MediaChancellor Rachel Reeves has said she will make “necessary choices” in the Budget after the “world has thrown more challenges our way”.
Her Downing Street speech did not rule out a U-turn on Labour’s general election manifesto pledge not to hike income tax, VAT or National Insurance.
When journalists explicitly asked if the government was set to break that pledge she did not answer directly but said she was “setting the context for the Budget”.
Ahead of the speech, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride dubbed it an “emergency press conference”, adding “higher taxes are on the way” and called for Reeves to be sacked if she “breaks her promises yet again”.
If there was any doubt about tax rises before this speech, there isn’t now.
Yet Reeves repeatedly refused to get into the specifics of which taxes might go up.
Instead she began the work of explaining why a year after delivering a tax-raising Budget and vowing not to come back for more, she is in fact coming back for more.
The chancellor said she would do what is necessary, not what is popular.
The reasons she gave were poor productivity, for which she blamed Conservative government policy including Brexit, austerity and short-sighted decisions to cut infrastructure spending, persistently high global inflation and the uncertainty unleashed by Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In short, Reeves’ argument is that the failings of others are being visited upon this government, and that it falls to her to confront decisions her predecessors ducked.
She pledged to come up with a “Budget for growth with fairness at its heart” aimed at bringing down NHS waiting lists, the national debt and the cost of living.
“It is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices – and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country,” she said.
There are some in government who want this to be a one-and-done Budget, in that they do not want to come back again and again every year, eking out a bit more money in tax to meet the requirements of the independent forecast.
That is seen as an argument for raising billions of pounds through increasing at least one of the income tax rates.
However, no chancellor has increased the basic rate in 50 years and it would be a big risk politically, especially with public trust in politics in general, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in particular, so low.
There is also the question of whether the prime minister and chancellor could land the argument that none of this was foreseeable before last year’s Budget.
The message from Reeves echoed comments made by Sir Keir to a group of Labour MPs on Monday night.
He told those gathered that the Budget would be “a Labour Budget built on Labour values” and that the government would “make the tough but fair decisions to renew our country and build it for the long term”.
It comes as the Resolution Foundation, which has close links to Labour and was previously run by Treasury minister Torsten Bell, said avoiding changes to VAT, NI or income tax “would do more harm than good”.
Hiking income tax would be the “best option” for raising cash, it said, but suggested it should be offset by a 2p cut to employee national insurance, which would “raise £6 billion overall while protecting most workers from this tax rise”.
Extending the freeze in personal tax thresholds for two more years beyond April 2028 would also raise £7.5 billion, its pre-Budget analysis suggested.
The government’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), is widely expected to downgrade its productivity forecasts for the UK at the end of the month. That could add as much as £20bn to the amount the chancellor will need to find if she is to meet her self-imposed “non-negotiable” rules for government finances.
The two main rules are:
- Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
- To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament
The Treasury declined to comment on “speculation” ahead of the OBR’s final forecast, which will be published on 26 November alongside the Budget.
However, the chancellor confirmed last week that both tax rises and spending cuts are options as she aims to give herself “sufficient headroom” against future economic shocks.
Reeves said in her speech on Tuesday that her commitment to her fiscal rules was “iron-clad”.
The Resolution Foundation urged the chancellor to use the Budget to give herself more fiscal headroom, meaning how much leeway she has to increase spending or cut taxes without being forced to break her own rules.
After the last Budget, Reeves had £9.9bn of headroom – but the think tank said subsequent policy U-turns and changes in the economic outlook have turned that into a £4bn black hole.
The group said Reeves should double the level of headroom to £20bn in order to “send a clear message to markets that she is serious about fixing the public finances, which in turn should reduce medium-term borrowing costs and make future fiscal events less fraught”.
Last month, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said there was a “strong case” to increase fiscal headroom.
The think tank said the lack of a bigger buffer created instability, and could leave the chancellor “limping from one forecast to the next”.
BP has said it is ramping up overhaul efforts with aims to sell off more parts of the business and strip out further costs as it posted a smaller-than-feared drop in quarterly profits.
The oil giant reported underlying replacement cost profits, the group’s preferred earnings measure, of 2.21 billion US dollars (£1.68 billion) for the three months to September 30.
This was 3% lower than a year earlier, and 6% down on the previous quarter, but better than the 2.02 billion US dollars (£1.54 billion) expected by most analysts.
Murray Auchincloss, chief executive of BP, said: “We are looking to accelerate delivery of our plans, including undertaking a thorough review of our portfolio to drive simplification and targeting further improvements in cost performance and efficiency.”
The energy giant recently revealed a major cost-cutting drive, with thousands of roles to be axed as it comes under pressure to boost profits.
BP has also been selling off parts of the business to raise cash and said it now expects proceeds from divestment in 2025 to be more than four billion US dollars (£3.05 billion) and completed or announced asset sale agreements to reach around five billion US dollars (£3.81 billion) this year.
Mr Auchincloss said: “There is much more to do but we are moving at pace, and demonstrating that BP can and will do better for our investors.”
BP group said it would buy back another 750 million US dollars (£572 million) before reporting full-year figures, in line with the buybacks seen in the third quarter.
The business earlier this year unveiled a new growth strategy focused on extracting more oil and gas, pivoting away from a focus on green energy and heavily reducing spending on renewables.
It has come under pressure from shareholders to boost profits and cut costs, with activist investor Elliott Management recently taking a 5% stake in the group.
In August, it revealed it expects 6,200 jobs to go – about 15% of its office-based workforce – which is higher than the 4,700 cuts announced at the start of the year, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) to help drive cost efficiencies.
BP also said at the time it had already slashed 3,200 contractor roles since January, with another 1,200 to go by the end of 2025.
The third-quarter figures come after fellow FTSE 100 oil giant Shell also saw profits fall amid lower oil prices, although Shell likewise saw profits come in higher than expected, amid a boost from higher sales volumes and trading margins.
Benchmark Brent crude average prices fell 13% year-on-year in the third quarter.
BP’s half-year results in August showed profits tumbled by nearly a third as weaker oil prices weighed on earnings, although it posted a better-than-expected performance for the second quarter.
On Tuesday, it said its customers and products division was helped by higher refining margins, with better-than-expected profit before interest and tax of 1.72 billion US dollars (£1.31 billion), up from 381 million US dollars (£290 million) last year.
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