Business
Third-quarter earnings are indicating a divided economy
A Taco Bell restaurant in El Cerrito, California, US, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With more consumer companies preparing to report third-quarter earnings this week, Wall Street will be watching for signs of a bifurcated or “K-shaped” economy as consumers diverge in their spending behaviors.
There have been increasing signals that wealthier Americans are spending more while lower-income Americans are significantly paring back their spending. Lower-income consumers have been hit hardest by rising inflation and escalating prices on essentials, with September’s consumer price index report indicating a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%.
Shortly after the CPI report was released, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its second straight interest rate cut, lowering its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
Meanwhile, the country is entering the fifth week of the government shutdown, with many federal workers going without pay.
The Census Bureau estimated there were 35.9 million people in poverty in 2024, the most recent available data, with the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four coming in at $32,130. The median household income, meanwhile was $83,730 last year, according to the bureau.
The top 10% of households saw their income increase 4.2% between 2023 and 2024, but there was no meaningful change for the bottom 10% of households, the bureau said in September. There were approximately 33 million households in the top 10% of earners and another 33 million in the bottom 10% of earners as of last year.
Consumers with the highest purchasing power have benefited from stock market rallies and rising home values. Data from JPMorgan‘s Cost of Living Survey found that higher-income consumers reported stronger economic confidence readings for the next year.
Recent earnings reports from companies touching all corners of the economy have indicated the K-shaped trend is beginning to take hold. This week, companies like Yum Brands, McDonald’s, E.l.f. Beauty, Tapestry and Under Armour are preparing to release quarterly earnings reports and could report similar trends.
Last week, Chipotle reported it’s seeing consumers who make less than $100,000 a year, which represents roughly 40% of the company’s customer base, spending less frequently due to concerns about the economy and inflation. CEO Scott Boatwright said the company is seeing “consistent macroeconomic pressures” with a 0.8% decline in traffic for the quarter.
Coca-Cola said in its third-quarter earnings that pricier products like Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes are driving its growth. Procter & Gamble reported similar results, saying wealthier customers are buying more from club retailers, which sell bigger pack sizes, while lower-income shoppers are significantly pulling back.
And some of the companies reporting this week have already indicated they may be seeing similar behaviors. In early September, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the chain’s expansion of its value menu was due to a “two-tier economy.”
“Traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal … or they’re choosing to just eat at home,” he said.
The trend isn’t limited to just food and beverage, either. In the autos world, consumers who can afford to buy new vehicles are on a spree, while those who are more price constrained are sitting out. Defaults and repossessions are on the rise while the average price for a new vehicle is setting records.
And in the service industry, Hilton earlier this month reported that it saw a drop in revenue for its affordable brands while its luxury offerings performed exceedingly well. Still, CEO Christopher Nassetta told CNBC last month that he doesn’t expect bifurcation to last much longer.
“My own belief is that as we look into the fourth quarter and particularly into next year, we’re going to see a very big shift in those dynamics, meaning, I don’t think you’re going to continue to have this bifurcation,” Nassetta said. “That’s not to say I think the high end is going to get worse or bad. I just think the middle and the low end [are] going to move up.”
Correction: This article has been updated to correct the month of the CPI report.
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Sensex Gains 2,072 Points, Nifty Above 25,700; US-India Trade Deal Among Key Factors Behind Rally
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Indian benchmark indices staged a powerful rally, with the Nifty and Sensex surging up to 4.7% and 4.4% respectively; Know key reasons
Nifty50
Indian benchmark indices staged a powerful rally, with the Nifty and Sensex surging up to 4.7% and 4.4%, respectively, marking one of their strongest single-day advances. The sharp upswing followed the announcement of a long-awaited India–US trade agreement, which helped ease tariff-related worries that had weighed on domestic equities for months.
The benchmark BSE Sensex ended 2072.67 points higher or 2.54% to end at 83,739.13. The Nifty 50 climbed 639.15 points, or 2.55%, to end at 25,727.55 during the session.
Earlier in the day, the BSE Sensex jumped 5.1% during the session to hit an intraday peak of 85,871.73. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 advanced by 1,252 points, or 5%, climbing to 26,341.2 as buying intensified across the board.
The sharp move also led to a massive rise in investor wealth. The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies increased to Rs 467.35 lakh crore from ₹455 lakh crore in the previous session, translating into a gain of more than Rs 12.5 lakh crore in a single day as participation broadened across sectors.
Highlighting the reasons that are fueling the Indian stock market today, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, “The Indian stock market today is in a bull trend due to the announcement of the India-US trade deal. The much-awaited trade deal has the potential to significantly improve sentiment across markets and among FIIs. After a strong gap-up opening during the Opening Bell, the possibility of the Nifty 50 index hitting fresh all-time highs in the near term cannot be ruled out. The Indian rupee is also expected to strengthen meaningfully.”
On segments that may benefit in upcoming sessions after the India-US trade deal, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart, said, “Export-oriented sectors are likely to be the key beneficiaries—textiles and apparel, gems & jewellery, leather, marine/seafood (shrimp), auto ancillaries, engineering goods, speciality chemicals, and select electronics and consumer goods. Pharma and IT/services may also witness an indirect sentiment boost.”
What’s driving the rally
India–US trade deal
After prolonged negotiations, India and the US sealed a trade agreement under which Washington cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. In return, India will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products. The breakthrough removes a major uncertainty that had kept foreign investors cautious and contributed to Indian equities’ underperformance. Through January, the Nifty had slumped over 1,000 points at its worst, even as foreign portfolio investors sold heavily.
Rupee strength adds comfort
A stronger rupee also supported sentiment, easing some pressure from global volatility. The currency opened at 90.40 against the dollar versus its previous close. Analysts believe the combined effect of the India–US deal, progress on the EU trade front and a growth-focused Budget could lift sentiment and revive risk appetite across markets.
FII short covering
Short covering by foreign institutional investors amplified the rebound. With bearish positions estimated to be close to 90%, traders rushed to unwind shorts as indices rebounded from oversold levels and the Nifty reclaimed the 26,000 mark. Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said a sustained move above 25,000 opens the door to 25,800 and possibly 26,200, though failure to hold above 25,800 could trigger consolidation toward the 25,430–25,340 zone.
Heavyweights power gains
Large-cap stocks led from the front. Reliance Industries climbed nearly 4%, while Adani Ports surged about 8%, giving strong momentum to the benchmarks. HDFC Bank, L&T, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Eternal gained up to 5%. Optimism around the Union Budget 2026’s capital expenditure push further strengthened expectations of better order flows.
Buzz for strong quarterly numbers
On how the India-US trade deal may benefit the Indian stock market in the medium to long term, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said, “The India-US deal is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, especially the auto, IT, textile, pharma, gems and jewellery. So, companies from these segments are expected to report strong quarterly numbers in the upcoming quarters.” She said that the market would try to discount that buzz much before the companies start reporting such robust quarterly numbers.
Supportive global cues
Global markets also offered tailwinds. The Dow Jones rose roughly 515 points (1.05%), the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq advanced about 0.6%. Asian equities rallied, with Japan’s Nikkei jumping around 3% and South Korea’s Kospi soaring over 5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 posted modest gains, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.3% after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, its first hike since November 2023.
Stocks to buy after India-US trade deal
On stocks to buy in the wake of the India-US trade deal and the reduction of Trump’s tariffs on India, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, recommended 21 stocks to buy today from the auto, IT, pharma, textile, and defence sectors.
Pharma: Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla, and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals.
Defence: BEL, HAL, and Cochin Shipyard.
IT: TechM, HCL Tech, Wipro, and Infosys.
Textile: Trident and Welspun Living.
Auto and Auto Ancillary: Eicher Motors, Tata Motors, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, JBM Auto, Bosch, Amara Raja, and Exide Industries.
February 03, 2026, 11:30 IST
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Mumbai: Hyundai Motor India Limited on Monday reported a solid performance in the third quarter (Q3) of FY26, with its consolidated net profit rising 6.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,234.4 crore. The growth was supported by steady demand in the domestic market, strong export numbers and higher sales during the festive season, the company said in its stock exchange filing.
Revenue from operations during the quarter increased 8 percent compared to last year to Rs 17,973.5 crore. Operating performance also improved, with EBITDA rising 7.6 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,018.3 crore. The EBITDA margin stood at 11.2 percent, remaining broadly stable compared to the same period last financial year.
The company said domestic demand during the quarter benefited from GST 2.0-related advantages and festive-season momentum.
Wholesale volumes rose 5 per cent sequentially, supported by strong retail sales across key models.
Exports played an important role in overall growth, with export volumes jumping 21 per cent year-on-year in the December quarter.
Exports contributed around 25 per cent to Hyundai Motor India’s total sales during the period.
On the product front, the Creta once again emerged as a key growth driver. The SUV reclaimed its position as India’s best-selling SUV and achieved its highest-ever annual sales of more than 2 lakh units in calendar year 2025.
The newly launched Venue also saw healthy demand, with nearly 80,000 bookings so far. The company said first-time buyers accounted for 48 per cent of the total bookings for the model.
For the nine months ended December 31, 2025, Hyundai Motor India reported EBITDA of Rs 6,632.5 crore, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.3 per cent.
EBITDA margins expanded to 12.8 per cent despite higher costs related to capacity stabilisation and commodity prices. Net profit for the nine-month period rose to Rs 4,175.9 crore.
Commenting on the results, Managing Director and CEO Tarun Garg said the company delivered healthy growth in volumes, revenue and profitability during the quarter.
He added that an improved sales mix and disciplined cost management helped support margins on a year-to-date basis.
Garg also highlighted strong sales in January 2026 as a positive sign for the rest of the financial year.
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