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Is Pakistan ready to seize US export opportunity? | The Express Tribune

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Is Pakistan ready to seize US export opportunity? | The Express Tribune



ISLAMABAD:

The United States is undergoing a major overhaul of its trade policies, triggering a broader reshaping of global supply chains. Steep tariff hikes on key exporters like China, India and Brazil are forcing US importers to rethink their sourcing strategies.

This disruption presents a rare and valuable opening for countries like Pakistan to step in and gain market share. With Chinese and Indian exports facing average tariffs of 50% or more, Pakistan’s comparatively low 19% tariff offers a clear competitive edge. The critical question is whether Pakistan is prepared to seize this moment.

American importers are already shifting supply chains away from high-tariff countries, creating new opportunities for agile exporters. Pakistan, with its recent economic reforms reducing input costs and facilitating capital goods imports, is uniquely positioned to capitalise on this trade realignment.

After years of stagnant exports, this market disruption presents a critical window to gain foothold in vacated market segments, particularly where Pakistan’s newly enhanced cost competitiveness can deliver immediate advantages.

Pakistan’s current strongest export position in the US lies in textiles and apparel, where it ships over $5 billion of goods annually. By comparison, China exports $40 billion — apparel about $24 billion and textiles $16 billion — and India $9 billion with a balanced 50-50 split between apparel and textiles.

Even a modest redirection of orders from these countries to Pakistan could generate significant gains. The textile sector, given its existing base and infrastructure, remains the most immediate area where Pakistan could scale up exports quickly.

In addition to textiles and clothing, several other sectors show promise. Pakistan’s leather exports to the US currently stand at $171 million, while its global leather exports total $710 million, highlighting that the country is competitive in this sector.

Similarly, the sports goods industry, known for its world-class football manufacturing, has exports nearing $400 million and is well-positioned to grow with improved branding and market access. The recent emergence of truck and bus radial tyres as an export item to the US is another bright spot. With exports surpassing $100 million last year and over 20% year-on-year growth, it reflects the kind of momentum that can be built with the right focus.

Pakistan’s mobile assembly sector represents one of its most glaring missed industrial opportunities. While India’s mobile exports to the US surged to $7.5 billion in FY 2024-25, fuelled by China tariff diversions, Pakistan’s $160 million in annual exports remain confined to low-end markets, despite sharing similar starting conditions.

The 2020 Mobile Device Manufacturing Policy attracted 26 assemblers through component duty exemptions and local market protection, driving import substitution (90% of domestic demand). However, this inward-focused model, which failed spectacularly in the auto sector, continues to stifle export potential. Component imports now consume $1.5-2 billion annually without generating meaningful foreign exchange as assemblers prioritise lucrative domestic sales over competitive global integration.

The need for change is particularly critical in the engineering goods sector where Indian exports to the US are about $18 billion, or 28% of their exports, as compared to Pakistan’s less than $0.5 billion, or about 7% of its exports. This sector must be freed from the outdated import substitution mindset still embedded within the relevant government institutions.

This is a missed opportunity not just economically but also strategically, as engineering-led exports can help Pakistan diversify its trade base and reduce over-reliance on traditional low value-added sectors. If this sector is freed from micromanagement of government agencies, it could become a key driver of export growth and industrial upgrading.

The global trade order is experiencing its most profound transformation in a generation, presenting Pakistan with a critical opportunity to reshape its economic future. Bold reforms in this year’s budget, particularly tariff rationalisation, are already yielding promising results: a record 17% monthly export surge and 42% growth in customs and other taxes on imports, marking the highest single-month gains in recent history.

While it’s premature to draw long-term conclusions from one month’s data, these early indicators align with economic modelling that predicted benefits from greater openness, validating the reform direction. Critics who focus narrowly on deficits overlook a fundamental truth of development economics: strategic short-term deficits have consistently served as necessary investments for emerging economies to achieve lasting prosperity, as demonstrated by the trajectories of China, Vietnam and other success stories.

The writer is a member of the steering committee on US tariffs. Previously he served as Pakistan’s ambassador to WTO and FAO’s representative to the United Nations



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John Swinney under fire over ‘smallest tax cut in history’ after Scottish Budget

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John Swinney under fire over ‘smallest tax cut in history’ after Scottish Budget



John Swinney has been pressed over whether this week’s Scottish Budget gives some workers the “smallest tax cut in history” – with Tory leader Russell Findlay branding the reduction “miserly” and “insulting”.

The Scottish Conservative leader challenged the First Minister after Tuesday’s Holyrood Budget effectively cut taxes for lower earners, by increasing the threshold for the basic and intermediate bands of income tax.

But Mr Findlay said that would leave workers at most £31.75 a year better off – saying this amounts to a saving of just £61p a week

“That wouldn’t even buy you a bag of peanuts,” the Scottish Tory leader said.

“John Swinney’s Budget might even have broken a world record, because a Scottish Government tax adviser says it ‘maybe the smallest tax cut in history’.”

Raising the “miserly cut” at First Minister’s Questions in the Scottish Parliament, Mr Findlay demanded to know if the SNP leader believed his “insulting tax cut will actually help Scotland’s struggling households”.

The attack came as the Tory accused the SNP government of increasing taxes on higher earners, with its freeze on higher income tax thresholds, which will pull more Scots into these brackets.

This is needed to pay for the “SNP’s out of control, unaffordable benefits bill”, the Conservative added.

Mr Findlay said: “The Scottish Conservatives will not back and cannot back a Budget that does nothing to help Scotland’s workers and businesses.

“It hammers people with higher taxes to fund a bloated benefits system.”

Hitting out at Labour – whose leader Anas Sarwar has already declared they will not block the government’s Budget – Mr Findlay said: “It is absolutely mind-blowing that Labour and other so-called opposition parties will let this SNP boorach of a budget pass.

“Don’t the people of Scotland deserve lower taxes, fairer benefits and a government focused on economic growth?”

Mr Swinney said the Budget “delivers on the priorities of the people of Scotland” by “strengthening our National Health Service and supporting people and businesses with the challenges of the cost of living”.

He insisted income tax decisions in the Budget would mean that in 2026-27 “55% of Scottish taxpayers are now expected to pay less income tax than if they lived in England”.

The First Minister went on to say that showed “the people of Scotland have a Government that is on their side”.

Referring to polls putting his party on course to win the Holyrood elections in May, the SNP leader added that “all the current indications show the people of Scotland want to have this Government here for the long term”.

Benefits funding is “keeping children out of poverty”, he told MSPs, adding the Budget contained a “range of measures” that would build on existing support.

The First Minister said: “What that is a demonstration of is a Government that is on the side of the people of Scotland and I am proud of the measures we set out in the Budget on Tuesday.”

Meanwhile he said the Tories wanted to make tax cuts that would cost £1 billion, with “not a scrap of detail about how that would be delivered”.

With the weekly leaders’ question time clash coming less than 48 hours after the draft 2026-27 Budget was unveiled, the First Minister also faced questions from Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar, who insisted that the proposals “lacks ambition for Scotland”.

Pressing his SNP rival, the Scottish Labour leader said: “While he brags about his £6 a year tax cut for the lowest paid, one million Scots including nurses, teachers and police officers face being forced to pay more.

“Even his own tax adviser says this is a political stunt. So why does John Swinney believe that someone earning £33,500 has the broadest shoulders and therefore should pay more tax in Scotland?”

Mr Swinney, however, said that many public sector workers would be better off in Scotland.

He told the Scottish Labour leader: “A band six nurse at the bottom of the scale will take home an additional £1,994 after tax compared to the same band in England.

“A qualified teacher at the bottom of the band will take home £6,365 more after tax in Scotland than the equivalent in England. There are the facts for Mr Sarwar.”



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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs



BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.

The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.

BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.

Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.

In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.

But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.

It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.

Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.

Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.

Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.



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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India

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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India


Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.



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