Business
Key economic data and trends that will shape Rachel Reeves’ Budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget on Wednesday against a backdrop of rising unemployment and higher-than-forecast Government borrowing, but amid signs this year’s spike in inflation may have peaked.
Here, the PA news agency looks at five key economic indicators that are likely to shape both the content and the tone of Ms Reeves’ speech.
– Borrowing
Government borrowing for the current financial year is running at a higher level than forecast and is the highest on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic.
Borrowing stood at £116.8 billion for the seven months from April to October 2025, according to figures published last week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is £9.9 billion more than the £106.9 billion forecast for this period by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March.
It is also the second-highest borrowing figure for April-October since comparable data began in 1993, behind only 2020.
The Government has overshot forecasts this year due to “a combination of lower-than-expected tax receipts and higher-than-expected borrowing by councils and other bodies outside of central government control”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank.
It means that when the OBR publishes its new economic forecasts alongside the Budget on Wednesday, total borrowing for the current financial year is likely to be revised up, as it may be for subsequent years.
It is not unusual for a government to borrow in order to spend more than it receives in taxes and other income.
The last time the government spent less than it received was 25 years ago, in 2000/01.
However, borrowing is now running at a comparatively high level and the latest figures are a reminder of how economic forecasts can be subject to a lot of uncertainty.
Should borrowing continue to be higher than expected, Rachel Reeves may need to find additional ways to ensure she has enough “headroom” in her Budget to balance the nation’s finances.
– Economic growth
The OBR’s new forecasts on Wednesday are also likely to include revised estimates for economic growth in the UK.
Growth in 2025 has slowed as the year has gone on.
The size of the economy grew by 0.7% in January-March, by 0.3% in April-June and by just 0.1% in July-September, according to estimates by the ONS.
In addition, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% in September, driven by a fall in motor manufacturing due partly to the cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover.
The OBR’s current forecast for growth across the whole of 2025 – published back in March – is 1.0%, rising to 1.9% in 2026.
The UK has recorded annual growth of less than 1% only five times in the past 30 years: in 2008 and 2009 (zero and -4.6% respectively, during the financial crash); 2011 (0.9%), 2020 (-10.0%, during the pandemic) and 2023 (0.3%).
The Chancellor already knows the new GDP forecast for 2025 and this will undoubtedly shape some of the tone of her Budget speech.
Responding earlier this month to the GDP figures for July-September, Ms Reeves said: “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working people.
“At my Budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt and cut the cost of living.”
– Inflation
The UK’s overall rate of inflation stood at 3.6% last month, down from 3.8% in September, but above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
It was the first time the rate had fallen month on month since May, suggesting inflation this year may have peaked.
The figure – based on the ONS Consumer Prices Index – is a measure of how much prices have risen on average year on year.
A fall from 3.8% to 3.6% means prices are not rising quite as fast as they were.
Any evidence that the cost of living is easing is good news for the Government and the latest figures will almost certainly be welcomed by Ms Reeves during her speech.
It could also mean the Bank of England is more likely cut interest rates from their current level of 4%, when it makes its next decision in December.
The Bank of England’s own forecasts suggest inflation is on track to fall to the 2% target by 2027.
This would mark a return to relatively low inflation in the UK and the end of a turbulent few years that saw the rate hit 11.1% in autumn 2022.
– Unemployment
Estimates of unemployment in the UK are produced by the ONS but are currently not classed as official statistics.
This is because the figures are based on a survey that has had a low response rate since the pandemic, meaning the data is unreliable and has to be treated with caution.
The trend suggested by the latest figures is that unemployment has risen over the past year, from 4.3% of people aged 16 and over in July-September 2024 to 5.0% in July-September 2025.
This is the highest rate outside the Covid-19 pandemic since 2016.
The OBR’s current forecast for the unemployment rate across 2025 is 4.5% and, given the data from the ONS, it seems likely this figure will be revised upwards on Wednesday.
Rising unemployment is not a backdrop any chancellor would choose for a Budget speech, especially given the confusion over how many people may or may not be out of work.
The unreliability of the unemployment figures has been criticised by many economists and statisticians – including Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.
Ms Reeves is also facing other signs that point to a weakening jobs market, with the number of people on employee payrolls falling in most of the last 12 months, along with a slowdown in wage growth.
However, the proportion of the workforce classed as economically inactive – who are of working age and not in employment but not currently looking for work – has fallen slightly.
It stood at an estimated 21.0% in July-September 2025, down from 21.6% in the same period a year earlier.
– Retail sales
Lastly, the Chancellor is sure to have noted the latest retail sales figures.
The volume of sales fell 1.1% in October, the first monthly drop since May, according to the ONS.
It follows a strong rise of 0.7% in September, but the fall was larger than economists had forecast and could point to consumers being cautious with their money ahead of the Budget.
There was some feedback from retailers that people were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals, the ONS added.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “We expect retail sales volumes growth to remain subdued in November as pre-Budget speculation reaches a fever pitch.
“We still think consumers should return to the high street when the Budget is passed and there is a little more clarity over fiscal policy.”
Some clarity should come on Wednesday, when the Chancellor gets to her feet in the House of Commons to deliver one of the most keenly-awaited Budgets in recent years.
Business
Leave, holidays and encashment: What India’s changing labour laws mean for employees – The Times of India
Leave is often seen as a simple workplace benefit – an approved absence from work. In reality, it is one of the more structured and regulated aspects of employment in India. With the implementation of new labour codes, questions around leave entitlement, holidays and leave encashment have drawn renewed attention. This matters because these rules affect not just everyday working life, but also what happens when an employee leaves an organisation.For employers and employees, understanding how leave works today is not always straightforward. This is because two legal systems operate side by side: the new central labour codes and the older State-level Shops and Establishments (S&E) laws. While the intent is to move towards a simpler and more uniform system, the actual position still depends on job role, location and which law applies.Different types of statutory leaveIndian labour laws recognise several types of statutory leave. The most important is earned leave (also called privilege leave). This leave builds up over time based on how many days an employee works. In addition, there are provisions for sick leave, casual leave, and national and festival holidays.Earned leave is different from other types of leave because it has both time-off value and financial value. If it is not used, it can build up and may be paid out in cash – either during employment or when the employee leaves, subject to carry forward limits – depending on the applicable law and company policy.Sick leave and casual leave, on the other hand, are meant for short-term or urgent needs and are usually not designed to be encashed.National and festival holidays form a separate category. These ensure paid holidays on important national or regional days, based on State notifications and local rules.Labour codes vs Shops and Establishments lawsA frequent point of confusion is the interface between the labour codes and State Shops and Establishments Acts.The Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code introduces a common framework for leave, but for people classified as “workers” under that law. At the same time, State S&E laws continue to apply to many salaried employees working in offices, shops and service-sector businesses.Because of this, uniformity has not fully arrived yet. Different State laws and leave rules may still apply for employees depending on where they are employed and work. Those who fall under the labour code framework move towards a more standard national system. Where both laws could apply, guidance from authorities suggests that the more beneficial provision would generally continue to apply.

Employers are expected to apply these frameworks together and ensure consistency as the new system takes shape.How earned leave builds upEarned leave generally depends on how long an employee has worked.Under the labour codes, earned leave accrues at a standard rate of one day for every twenty days of work, subject to certain eligibility conditions. This is meant to create a common reference point across the country.State Shops and Establishments laws, however, follow different approaches. Some States grant a fixed number of leave days each year, while others link leave closely to days worked. States also differ on how much unused leave can be carried forward.Sick leave, casual leave and holidaysSick leave and casual leave are mainly meant for short-term protection rather than long-term accumulation. Sick leave helps employees during illness, while casual leave allows flexibility for sudden personal needs.These types of leave are mostly governed by State law and internal company policy, with limited direct impact from the labour codes. Usually, unused sick or casual leave does not carry forward.National and festival holidays are largely decided at the State level. Employers are expected to follow notified holiday lists or compensate employees who work on those days, as per State rules.Carrying forward unused earned leaveHow unused earned leave is treated is one area where the labour codes bring more structure.Earlier, State laws allowed different levels of leave accumulation. Under the labour code approach, carry-forward is subject to clear limits, after which settlement mechanisms may apply. This is intended to avoid unlimited build-up of leave while still protecting employee interests.If leave could not be taken because of work requirements, safeguards exist to ensure such leave is not lost automatically.Annual leave encashment under labour codesAnother change under the labour codes is clearer recognition of leave encashment during ongoing employment.Earlier, in many States, leave was typically encashed only when an employee resigned, retired or was terminated. Under the new labour codes framework, employees may be entitled to encash leave exceeding permissible carry forward limits even while they remain in service. As per provisions under labour codes, a worker shall be entitled on his / her demand for encashment of leave at the end of calendar year. Worker shall be entitled, where the total number of leave exceeds 30 days, to encash such exceeded leave.Leave encashment when employment endsAcross Indian labour laws, one position has remained largely consistent. Unused earned leave is expected to be settled when employment comes to an end, whether the employee resigns, retires, is retrenched or is terminated.How this amount is calculated depends on the applicable law. State S&E laws refer to specific wage definitions, while the labour codes require calculation using the definition of “wages” under the Code. This may differ from earlier practice.

What employees and employers should keep in mindFor employees, the key point is that leave is not only a company benefit but part of a legal framework. How it applies depends on role, location and legal coverage.For employers, the focus remains on aligning internal policies with both Central and State laws, while ensuring smooth implementation. Clear communication and regular policy reviews will continue to be important during this transition.Leave rules may not attract the same attention as pay or job security, but they play a quiet role in work-life balance and financial certainty. As India’s labour framework evolves, earned leave is increasingly seen not just as time away from work, but as a regulated employment benefit with defined outcomes.(The author, Puneet Gupta is Partner, People Advisory Services Tax at EY India)
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Electricity bills targeted in planned shakeup to energy pricing
The war in the Middle East has brought renewed attention to Britain’s vulnerability to energy price shocks.
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Gadkari urges shift to 100% ethanol blending, flags energy security and import risks – The Times of India
India should aim for 100 per cent ethanol blending in the near future to strengthen energy self-reliance, road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari said on Tuesday. He said that vulnerabilities in oil supplies due to the ongoing crisis in West Asia have made it essential for the country to reduce dependence on imports.Speaking at the Indian Federation of Green Energy’s Green Transport Conclave, Gadkari said, “In the near future, India should aspire to achieve 100 per cent ethanol blending… Today, we are facing an energy crisis due to the war in West Asia, so it is necessary for us to become self-reliant in the energy sector,” as quoted by PTI.India currently allows vehicles to run on E20 petrol, which contains 20 per cent ethanol, with minor engine modifications to avoid corrosion and related issues. In 2023, PM Modi launched petrol blended with 20 per cent ethanol. Countries such as Brazil have already achieved 100 per cent ethanol blending.Gadkari noted that India imports 87 per cent of its oil requirements, adding, “We import fossil fuels worth Rs 22 lakh crore, which is also causing pollution… so we need to work on increasing production of alternative fuel and bio-fuel.”On future energy solutions, he stressed the importance of green hydrogen but pointed out challenges in cost and transport. “Transport of hydrogen fuel is a problem. Also, we need to produce 1 kg of hydrogen at $1 dollar, to make India an exporter of energy,” he said, adding that hydrogen production from waste should be explored.The minister also emphasised the role of a circular economy in generating employment opportunities. While calling for reduced reliance on petrol and diesel vehicles, he clarified, “But we can not force people to stop buying petrol and diesel vehicles.”Addressing concerns about E20 fuel, Gadkari said the petroleum sector is lobbying against the move. He also urged automobile manufacturers to prioritise quality over cost to expand into new markets.Last year, Gadkari dismissed criticism against E20 (ethanol-blended petrol), saying a “paid” social media campaign is being run to “target me politically.” He said Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers and Automotive Research Association of India have shared their findings on ethanol blending in petrol. He added that India’s ethanol programme has benefited farmers, noting that ethanol made from maize has helped them get better prices and led to gains of Rs 45,000 crore.
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