Business
A new AI cold war is emerging and Pakistan must avoid becoming collateral damage | The Express Tribune
Proposals to restrict high-end chips to cloud rental could leave AI use dependent on US servers
ISLAMABAD:
Though the recently released US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report offers interesting insights into the love-hate dynamics of the US-China relationship, it also highlights concerns that could affect Pakistan in the long run.
The report acknowledges military cooperation between China and Pakistan and recognises the supremacy of Beijing’s HQ-9 air defence system, PL-15 missiles and J-10 aircraft. However, the commission did not raise any concerns regarding China’s offer to sell 40 J-35 fighter jets, KJ-500 aircraft and missiles to Pakistan in June 2025, showing that the US views Pakistan as a responsible stakeholder that is not fully aligned with either camp.
The report mentions that Pakistan imports surveillance technologies from China, including facial recognition systems, AI-driven monitoring platforms and digital ID systems, under China’s Digital Silk Road strategy to support initiatives such as “safe cities.” This should not raise an alarm, as Pakistan has legitimate security needs arising from two decades of terrorist threats.
Nevertheless, the fact that Pakistan is not explicitly discussed, unlike countries such as Russia and Iran, indicates that our strategy of maintaining strategic balance to extract benefits from both powers is working in our favour. However, what should concern Pakistan is the growing hostility between the two nations over cutting-edge AI technology and enabling computer chips.
The committee proposed that the US should shift from selling AI chips to renting them via cloud services when the performance capabilities of these chips exceed a given threshold. This means that, in future, developing countries like Pakistan won’t be able to build independent GPU-powered data centres and would instead be forced to rely on servers in the US.
Access to such cloud-based AI compute would then be subject to use-case authorisation, with quotas varying by country. Even commercial entities outside the US would face FATF-style know-your-customer requirements to prevent AI computing from being used for military research or surveillance projects.
The committee also expressed concern over China’s acquisition of German company Kuka, a leading manufacturer of robotic arms and automation solutions. This signals that advanced AI-powered robotics will become another battlefield in global technology competition.
The semiconductor trap
The commission’s recommendation to shift high-end AI chips from sale to cloud-based rental reflects a fundamental shift in thinking: technology access is no longer about commerce but control. If implemented, it would create a two-tier world, countries capable of developing their own AI infrastructure and those perpetually dependent on foreign servers, with their data, algorithms and applications subject to US scrutiny.
The USCC report makes clear that technology competition between major powers will intensify, with export controls tightening, supply chains fragmenting and access to advanced technologies becoming increasingly conditional.
Pakistan may soon find itself forced to choose between dependence on China’s technology ecosystem and reliance on Western, primarily American, technology. At the government level, Pakistan often procures Chinese solutions, yet our research institutions and universities remain heavily dependent on US-based chips for critical research and development.
Pakistan’s National AI Policy and ongoing data centre investments could be rendered obsolete if this rental-only regime is implemented before the country secures essential hardware. Pakistan must recognise this threat early. We should immediately stockpile existing-generation AI chips, particularly Nvidia A100/H100-class GPUs and their equivalents, which are still available for purchase but may soon face export restrictions.
At the same time, we must invest in AI chip design capabilities using open architectures such as RISC-V, though not in manufacturing, which requires tens of billions of dollars. Pakistan should also negotiate technology-transfer agreements for semiconductor packaging and testing, and build relationships with emerging chip makers. We should also join regional technology cooperation consortia, such as the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation, of which Pakistan is a member.
The alternative is a future where Pakistan’s AI ambitions require American permission, our manufacturing competitiveness depends on Chinese goodwill, and our economic development is constrained by technologies controlled by others. This is not merely an economic threat; it is an existential challenge to sovereignty in an era where technology is power.
The next two to three years represent a critical window. Technologies and capabilities available today may be restricted tomorrow. The USCC report is a roadmap of the technological fault lines that will define the 21st century. Pakistan cannot match the technology superpowers in resources or scale, but we can build a resilient and diversified technology ecosystem that maintains access to multiple sources. Our focus should be to avoid being caught on the wrong side of those fault lines while the window for action remains open. That window is closing faster than most realise.
The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a strategy consultant
Business
India’s $5 Trillion Economy Push Explained: Why Modi Govt Wants To Merge 12 Banks Into 4 Mega ‘World-Class’ Lending Giants
India’s Public Sector Banks Merger: The Centre is mulling over consolidating public-sector banks, and officials involved in the process say the long-term plan could eventually bring down the number of state-owned lenders from 12 to possibly just 4. The goal is to build a banking system that is large enough in scale, has deeper capital strength and is prepared to meet the credit needs of a fast-growing economy.
The minister explained that bigger banks are better equipped to support large-scale lending and long-term projects. “The country’s economy is moving rapidly toward the $5 trillion mark. The government is active in building bigger banks that can meet rising requirements,” she said.
Why India Wants Larger Banks
Sitharaman recently confirmed that the government and the Reserve Bank of India have already begun detailed conversations on another round of mergers. She said the focus is on creating “world-class” banks that can support India’s expanding industries, rising infrastructure investments and overall credit demand.
She clarified that this is not only about merging institutions. The government and RBI are working on strengthening the entire banking ecosystem so that banks grow naturally and operate in a stable environment.
According to her, the core aim is to build stronger, more efficient and globally competitive banks that can help sustain India’s growth momentum.
At present, the country has a total of 12 public sector banks: the State Bank of India (SBI), the Punjab National Bank (PNB), the Bank of Baroda, the Canara Bank, the Union Bank of India, the Bank of India, the Indian Bank, the Central Bank of India, the Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and the UCO Bank.
What Happens To Employees After Merger?
Whenever bank mergers are discussed, employees become anxious. A merger does not only combine balance sheets; it also brings together different work cultures, internal systems and employee expectations.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, several mergers caused discomfort among staff, including dissatisfaction over new roles, delayed promotions and uncertainty about reporting structures. Some officers who were promoted before mergers found their seniority diluted afterward, which created further frustration.
The finance minister addressed the concerns, saying that the government and the RBI are working together on the merger plan. She stressed that earlier rounds of consolidation had been successful. She added that the country now needs large, global-quality banks “where every customer issue can be resolved”. The focus, she said, is firmly on building world-class institutions.
‘No Layoffs, No Branch Closures’
She made one point unambiguous: no employee will lose their job due to the upcoming merger phase. She said that mergers are part of a natural process of strengthening banks, and this will not affect job security.
She also assured that no branches will be closed and no bank will be shut down as part of the consolidation exercise.
India last carried out a major consolidation drive in 2019-20, reducing the number of public-sector banks from 21 to 12. That round improved the financial health of many lenders.
With the government preparing for the next phase, the goal is clear. India wants large and reliable banks that can support a rapidly growing economy and meet the needs of a country expanding faster than ever.
Business
Stock market holidays in December: When will NSE, BSE remain closed? Check details – The Times of India
Stock market holidays for December: As November comes to a close and the final month of the year begins, investors will want to know on which days trading sessions will be there and on which days stock markets are closed. are likely keeping a close eye on year-end portfolio adjustments, global cues, and corporate earnings.For this year, the only major, away from normal scheduled market holidays in December is Christmas, observed on Thursday, December 25. On this day, Indian stock markets, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), will remain closed across equity, derivatives, and securities lending and borrowing (SLB) segments. Trading in currency and interest rate derivatives segments will continue as usual.Markets are expected to reopen on Friday, December 26, as investors return to monitor global developments and finalize year-end positioning. Apart from weekends, Christmas is the only scheduled market holiday this month, making December relatively quiet compared with other festive months, with regards to stock markets.The last trading session in November, which was November 28 (next two days being the weekend) ended flat. BSE Sensex slipped 13.71 points, or 0.02 per cent, to settle at 85,706.67, after hitting an intra-day high of 85,969.89 and a low of 85,577.82, a swing of 392.07 points. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty fell 12.60 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 26,202.95, halting its two-day rally.
Business
North Tyneside GP says debt stress causing mental health issues
A GP says patients are presenting with mental health problems because of stress they feel over their levels of personal debt.
According to Citizens Advice, north-east England has the second highest number of people who require professional assistance with debt problems – only London is higher.
Debt charity StepChange said in 2024 the highest concentration of their clients were in the North East, with 37 clients per 10,000 adults.
Dr Kamlesh Sreekissoon, who works as a GP in North Tyneside, said people were juggling “three or four jobs” in the build up to Christmas in order to manage and subsequently struggling with their mental health.
The most common reason for personal debt as reported by Stepchange’s North East clients is a rise in the cost of living (19.3%) and a lack of control over finances (19%).
Both these statistics outstrip the UK figures of 17.7% and 17.9% respectively.
Citizens Advice said thousands of people were falling deeper into debt to meet the cost of basic essentials such as food and fuel, rather than luxuries, but that people also felt under pressure to provide for Christmas.
Dr Sreekissoon said the stress caused by the debt people faced was compounded by issues relating to their family situations.
“At this time of year you will see people juggling three or four jobs, also after caring for elderly relatives, parents, [they’re] stressed out and unfortunately struggling with their mental health,” said Dr Sreekissoon.
He said the debt his patients described was not caused by buying unnecessary things, but by simply struggling to make ends meet.
“It’s more the basics,” he said. “I see people taking on working long hours, doing two or three jobs, and just being kind of stretched out, not being able to see their kids, and that just burns people out which is really sad to see”.
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