Business
Will Crude Oil Become Cheaper Than Water? Experts See A Massive Price Fall By March 2027
New Delhi: Crude oil prices in the international market could soon fall below the cost of a bottle of drinking water, and this is not an exaggeration. According to projections by global brokerage giant JP Morgan, Brent crude could drop to $30 per barrel by March 2027.
If converted to Indian rupees at an estimated exchange rate of Rs 95 per dollar, the price of one barrel would come to roughly Rs 2,850. Given that a barrel contains 159 litres, this would bring the cost of one litre of crude to just Rs 17.90, cheaper than the average price of bottled water in Delhi, which presently ranges between Rs 18 and Rs 20 per litre.
A Major Price Drop
JP Morgan’s forecast is significant for countries that rely heavily on crude imports. The firm estimates that Brent crude could fall more than 50% from present levels, which are hovering just above $62 per barrel. The expected decline is primarily due to a surge in global supply that could exceed demand.
Even though global oil consumption is projected to rise steadily over the next three years, supply growth, particularly from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan & South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore), is expected to outpace demand. This supply glut is likely to put considerable downward pressure on prices.
Global Demand, Supply Dynamics
In 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd), reaching a total consumption of 105.5 mbpd. Growth is predicted to remain steady in 2026 and could rise to 1.2 mbpd in 2027.
However, JP Morgan forecasts that supply growth will significantly exceed these demand hikes. In 2025 and 2026, supply could expand nearly three times faster than demand. By 2027, supply will continue to outpace consumption, creating an oversupply that could depress prices further.
Non-OPEC+ Drives Oil Supply Boom
One of the key drivers of this oversupply will be production from non-OPEC+ countries. JP Morgan highlights that roughly half of the expected supply surplus by 2027 will come from outside the traditional OPEC+ coalition (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea), fuelled by steady offshore growth and global shale production.
Once considered a high-cost cyclical sector, offshore oil has now become a reliable low-cost growth engine. JP Morgan projects offshore additions of 0.5 mbpd in 2025, 0.9 mbpd in 2026 and 0.4 mbpd in 2027.
Most floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) units required for this expansion have already been approved, making this growth highly probable.
Shale, Other Key Supply Sources
Shale oil remains the most flexible lever in global supply. While US shale growth is slowing, efficiency and productivity improvements continue to support output. In addition, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region has emerged as a low-cost scalable source thanks to improvements in export infrastructure.
Global shale supply is expected to increase by 0.8 mbpd in 2025. Assuming prices remain around $50 per barrel, production could grow by another 0.4 mbpd in 2026 and 0.5 mbpd in 2027. This surge in supply has already contributed to a rise in global inventories, which increased by 1.5 mbpd this year alone, including roughly 1 mbpd in floating storage and Chinese stockpiles.
JP Morgan expects this surplus layer to continue through 2026, with inventories potentially reaching 2.8 mbpd in 2026 and 2.7 mbpd in 2027 if no supply adjustments are made.
How $30 Per Barrel Could Happen
This imbalance could push Brent crude below $60 in 2026, possibly dropping to around $50 in the final quarter of the year. Average prices could fall to $42 by 2027, with end-of-year levels approaching $30 per barrel.
While supply cuts could be used to stabilise prices, hitting $30 would be challenging. The forecast suggests Brent could trade around $58 per barrel in 2026, slightly below current levels above $60.
Impact On Petrol, Diesel Prices In India
Such a dramatic fall in crude prices would be a major benefit for India. Petrol and diesel prices could drop substantially, easing the burden on consumers.
At present, Brent crude imports cost India over Rs 5,600 per barrel due to both price and rupee depreciation. By 2027, even if the rupee weakens to Rs 100 per dollar, the cost per barrel would still fall to around Rs 3,000 (roughly Rs 2,600 cheaper than current levels).
This provides ample room for the government and oil companies to reduce retail fuel prices.
Business
UK inflation rises to 3.4%, driven by tobacco and airfares
Inflation has risen to 3.4% in the year to December, driven by higher tobacco prices and airfares, according to official figures.
The increase in average prices across the UK economy – the first in five months – was just above expectations, with many economists predicting only a slight uptick to 3.3%.
The cost of airfares was a contributor “likely because of the timing of return flights over the Christmas and New Year period”, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. It also reflected an increase in tobacco duty introduced in late November.
It is the last set of monthly inflation figures released before the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates in February.
In addition to tobacco and transport prices, “rising food costs, particularly for bread and cereals, were also an upward driver,” said ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner.
“These were partially offset by a fall in rents inflation and lower prices for a range of recreational and cultural purchases.”
In response to the figures, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said her priority was cutting the cost of living, citing measures in her November Budget including a freeze to rail fares and prescription charges.
“Money off bills and into the pockets of working people is my choice.
“There’s more to do, but this is the year that Britain turns a corner,” Reeves said.
Inflation in the UK is a measure of the Consumer Prices Index, which is a virtual basket of hundreds of everyday goods and services selected by the ONS that includes things like bread, fruit, furniture and different items of clothing.
The prices of these items are tracked by the ONS over the previous 12 months, and the basket is regularly updated to reflect shopping trends.
Business
AU Small Finance Bank net up 26% to Rs 667 crore – The Times of India
MUMBAI: AU Small Finance Bank, which has received RBI nod to convert into a commercial bank, reported a net profit of Rs 667.66 crore for the December 2025 quarter, up 26.3% from Rs 528.45 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The improvement was driven by strong growth in core earnings and a sharp reduction in credit costs, which offset higher operating expenses.Net interest income (NII) rose 15.8% year-on-year to Rs 2,341.27 crore, compared with Rs 2,022.71 crore in the December 2024 quarter. Interest earned increased to Rs 4,727.47 crore from Rs 4,113.48 crore, while interest expended rose to Rs 2,386.20 crore from Rs 2,090.77 crore. On a sequential basis, NII increased 9.2% from Rs 2,144.42 crore in the September 2025 quarter, reflecting improved yields on advances and relatively stable funding costs.During the quarter, the bank also announced a series of board and senior management changes as part of a broader leadership realignment. The board approved the appointment of Phani Shankar as non-executive independent director for a three-year term. It also cleared the appointment of Vivek Tripathi, chief credit officer, as whole-time director, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Uttam Tibrewal, who will complete his current term as whole-time director in April 2026, will continue as deputy CEO, while Divya Sehgal, non-executive non-independent director, resigned after completion of the integration of Fincare Small Finance Bank. V G Kannan is set to complete his second term as independent director in January 2026.Other income increased 17.0% year-on-year to Rs 723.80 crore from Rs 618.41 crore a year earlier, supporting overall revenue growth. Total income for the quarter rose to Rs 5,451.26 crore, compared with Rs 4,731.89 crore in the corresponding period last year.Operating expenses climbed 28.8% year-on-year to Rs 1,849.75 crore from Rs 1,436.21 crore, driven by higher employee costs and expansion-related spending, including regulatory-linked adjustments. Despite this, operating profit before provisions remained broadly stable at Rs 1,215.31 crore, compared with Rs 1,204.91 crore in the year-ago quarter.Provisions (other than tax) declined 34.0% year-on-year to Rs 331.14 crore from Rs 501.68 crore, reflecting lower credit costs. Tax expense increased to Rs 216.51 crore from Rs 174.78 crore, in line with higher profitability.Asset quality remained stable, with gross NPAs at Rs 2,880.54 crore, compared with Rs 2,335.51 crore a year earlier, while the gross NPA ratio was largely unchanged at 2.30% against 2.31% in the corresponding quarter last year. The bank’s capital position strengthened, with the capital adequacy ratio improving to 19.01% from 18.01%, providing headroom for future growth.
Business
‘Our refineries are robust!’: India can process Venezuelean crude oil when available; here’s what IOCL chairman said – The Times of India
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) said that the country’s refineries are capable of processing Venezuelan crude if supplies resume. “If at all things start settling down, if at all a lot of crude starts coming out of Venezuela, then can’t we import oil from Venezuela?” he said.The executive further added that the company, used to process Venezuelean crude a decade back and can do so again. “Venezuelan crude earlier when it was available, like 10 years back or eight years back when it used to be there in the market,” Sahney said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Speaking about the capabilities of the refineries, the chairman highlighted that they are strong and can process the supplies. “So our refineries are varied, our refineries are robust. They can process in an admixed manner, but we can process Venezuelan crude if and when it is made available.”The remarks follow the US’s capture of outsted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military operation and an agreement to send 50 million barrels of oil, worth $5.2 billion, to the interim Venezuelan government.Sahney also highlighted India’s favourable economic and energy landscape. “India is growing at a phenomenal rate, and everybody is interested in talking about doing business with India,” he said.Commenting on global crude prices, he noted, “Crude has been trading in the range of $60-65 per barrel over the past several months. For the better part of the last six months, they were at $60 or below. This is a good zone where economic growth is also happening and sellers of crude are comfortable.”Pointing out India’s reliance on imports, he said, “India remains heavily dependent on imports to meet its energy needs, with IOCL importing about 85-87% of its crude oil requirements. The current price band is supportive for economic stability.”Sahney explained that refining margins depend on more than crude prices. “Refining margin is a very broad term. It is finally affected by the cracks in the international market. Today, cracks are working fine. They have returned to normalcy but are still in a healthy zone,” he said.He added that government policy has also supported the sector. “There is no problem on the policy side. Whatever support is required has already been given. It is up to us to improve profitability by increasing efficiency, reducing costs and optimising the supply chain,” Sahney said.Moving forward, Indian Oil plans to continue investing across the energy value chain, including downstream petrochemicals and cleaner energy solutions.The WEF’s 56th Annual Meeting runs from January 19 to 23, 2026, in Davos-Klosters, with around 3,000 participants from over 130 countries, including world leaders, CEOs, innovators and policymakers, under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue.”
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