Business
Will Crude Oil Become Cheaper Than Water? Experts See A Massive Price Fall By March 2027
New Delhi: Crude oil prices in the international market could soon fall below the cost of a bottle of drinking water, and this is not an exaggeration. According to projections by global brokerage giant JP Morgan, Brent crude could drop to $30 per barrel by March 2027.
If converted to Indian rupees at an estimated exchange rate of Rs 95 per dollar, the price of one barrel would come to roughly Rs 2,850. Given that a barrel contains 159 litres, this would bring the cost of one litre of crude to just Rs 17.90, cheaper than the average price of bottled water in Delhi, which presently ranges between Rs 18 and Rs 20 per litre.
A Major Price Drop
JP Morgan’s forecast is significant for countries that rely heavily on crude imports. The firm estimates that Brent crude could fall more than 50% from present levels, which are hovering just above $62 per barrel. The expected decline is primarily due to a surge in global supply that could exceed demand.
Even though global oil consumption is projected to rise steadily over the next three years, supply growth, particularly from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan & South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore), is expected to outpace demand. This supply glut is likely to put considerable downward pressure on prices.
Global Demand, Supply Dynamics
In 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd), reaching a total consumption of 105.5 mbpd. Growth is predicted to remain steady in 2026 and could rise to 1.2 mbpd in 2027.
However, JP Morgan forecasts that supply growth will significantly exceed these demand hikes. In 2025 and 2026, supply could expand nearly three times faster than demand. By 2027, supply will continue to outpace consumption, creating an oversupply that could depress prices further.
Non-OPEC+ Drives Oil Supply Boom
One of the key drivers of this oversupply will be production from non-OPEC+ countries. JP Morgan highlights that roughly half of the expected supply surplus by 2027 will come from outside the traditional OPEC+ coalition (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea), fuelled by steady offshore growth and global shale production.
Once considered a high-cost cyclical sector, offshore oil has now become a reliable low-cost growth engine. JP Morgan projects offshore additions of 0.5 mbpd in 2025, 0.9 mbpd in 2026 and 0.4 mbpd in 2027.
Most floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) units required for this expansion have already been approved, making this growth highly probable.
Shale, Other Key Supply Sources
Shale oil remains the most flexible lever in global supply. While US shale growth is slowing, efficiency and productivity improvements continue to support output. In addition, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region has emerged as a low-cost scalable source thanks to improvements in export infrastructure.
Global shale supply is expected to increase by 0.8 mbpd in 2025. Assuming prices remain around $50 per barrel, production could grow by another 0.4 mbpd in 2026 and 0.5 mbpd in 2027. This surge in supply has already contributed to a rise in global inventories, which increased by 1.5 mbpd this year alone, including roughly 1 mbpd in floating storage and Chinese stockpiles.
JP Morgan expects this surplus layer to continue through 2026, with inventories potentially reaching 2.8 mbpd in 2026 and 2.7 mbpd in 2027 if no supply adjustments are made.
How $30 Per Barrel Could Happen
This imbalance could push Brent crude below $60 in 2026, possibly dropping to around $50 in the final quarter of the year. Average prices could fall to $42 by 2027, with end-of-year levels approaching $30 per barrel.
While supply cuts could be used to stabilise prices, hitting $30 would be challenging. The forecast suggests Brent could trade around $58 per barrel in 2026, slightly below current levels above $60.
Impact On Petrol, Diesel Prices In India
Such a dramatic fall in crude prices would be a major benefit for India. Petrol and diesel prices could drop substantially, easing the burden on consumers.
At present, Brent crude imports cost India over Rs 5,600 per barrel due to both price and rupee depreciation. By 2027, even if the rupee weakens to Rs 100 per dollar, the cost per barrel would still fall to around Rs 3,000 (roughly Rs 2,600 cheaper than current levels).
This provides ample room for the government and oil companies to reduce retail fuel prices.
Business
Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty Hit Record Highs; Bank Nifty Climbs 60,000 For The First Time
Stock Market News Live Updates: Indian equity benchmarks opened with a strong gap-up on Monday, December 1, touching fresh record highs, buoyed by a sharp acceleration in Q2FY26 GDP growth to a six-quarter peak of 8.2%. Positive cues from Asian markets further lifted investor sentiment.
The BSE Sensex was trading at 85,994, up 288 points or 0.34%, after touching an all-time high of 86,159 in early deals. The Nifty 50 stood at 26,290, higher by 87 points or 0.33%, after scaling a record intraday high of 26,325.8.
Broader markets also saw gains, with the Midcap index rising 0.27% and the Smallcap index advancing 0.52%.
On the sectoral front, the Nifty Bank hit a historic milestone by crossing the 60,000 mark for the first time, gaining 0.4% to touch a fresh peak of 60,114.05.
Meanwhile, the Metal and PSU Bank indices climbed 0.8% each in early trade.
Global cues
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on Monday as traders assessed fresh Chinese manufacturing data and increasingly priced in the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now assigning an 87.4 per cent probability to a rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting.
China’s factory activity unexpectedly slipped back into contraction in November, with the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI by S&P Global easing to 49.9, below expectations of 50.5, as weak domestic demand persisted.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1.6 per cent, while the broader Topix declined 0.86 per cent. In South Korea, the Kospi dropped 0.30 per cent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.31 per cent.
US stock futures were steady in early Asian trade after a positive week on Wall Street. On Friday, in a shortened post-Thanksgiving session, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.65 per cent to 23,365.69, its fifth consecutive day of gains.
The S&P 500 rose 0.54 per cent to 6,849.09, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 289.30 points, or 0.61 per cent, to close at 47,716.42.
Osmond ChiaBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesSouth Korea’s largest online retailer, Coupang, has apologised for a massive data breach potentially involving nearly 34 million local customer accounts.
The country’s internet authority said that it is investigating the breach and that details from the millions of accounts have likely been exposed.
Coupang is often described as South Korea’s equivalent of Amazon.com. The breach marks the latest in a series of data leaks at major firms in the country, including its telecommunications giant, SK Telecom.
Coupang told the BBC it became aware of the unauthorised access of personal data of about 4,500 customer accounts on 18 November and immediately reported it to the authorities.
But later checks found that some 33.7 million customer accounts – all in South Korea – were likely exposed, said Coupang, adding that the breach is believed to have begun as early as June through a server based overseas.
The exposed data is limited to name, email address, phone number, shipping address and some order histories, Coupang said.
No credit card information or login credentials were leaked. Those details remain securely protected and no action is required from Coupang users at this point, the firm added.
The number of accounts affected by the incident represents more than half of South Korea’s roughly-52 million population.
Coupang, which is founded in South Korea and headquartered in the US, said recently that it had nearly 25 million active users.
Coupang apologised to its customers and warned them to stay alert to scams impersonating the company.
The firm did not give details on who is behind the breach.
South Korean media outlets reported on Sunday that a former Coupang employee from China was suspected of being behind the breach.
The authorities are assessing the scale of the breach as well as whether Coupang had broken any data protection safety rules, South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT said in a statement.
“As the breach involves the contact details and addresses of a large number of citizens, the Commission plans to conduct a swift investigation and impose strict sanctions if it finds a violation of the duty to implement safety measures under the Protection Act.”
The incident marks the latest in a series of breaches affecting major South Korean companies this year, despite the country’s reputation for stringent data privacy rules.
SK Telecom, South Korea’s largest mobile operator, was fined nearly $100m (£76m) over a data breach involving more than 20 million subscribers.
In September, Lotte Cards also said the data of nearly three million customers was leaked after a cyber-attack on the credit card firm.
Agency workers hired to cover Birmingham bin strikers will join them on picket lines on Monday, a union has said.
A rally will be held by Unite The Union at Smithfield Depot on Pershore Street, Birmingham, on Monday morning to mark the first day of strike action by agency refuse workers.
Unite said the Job & Talent agency workers had voted in favour of strike action “over bullying, harassment and the threat of blacklisting at the council’s refuse department two weeks ago”.
The union said the number of agency workers who will join the strike action is “growing daily”.
Strikes by directly-employed bin workers, which have been running since January, could continue beyond May’s local elections.
The directly-employed bin workers voted in favour of extending their industrial action mandate earlier this month.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said: “Birmingham council will only resolve this dispute when it stops the appalling treatment of its workforce.
“Agency workers have now joined with directly-employed staff to stand up against the massive injustices done to them.
“Instead of wasting millions more of council taxpayers’ money fighting a dispute it could settle justly for a fraction of the cost, the council needs to return to talks with Unite and put forward a fair deal for all bin workers.
“Strikes will not end until it does.”
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Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty Hit Record Highs; Bank Nifty Climbs 60,000 For The First Time
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