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Will Crude Oil Become Cheaper Than Water? Experts See A Massive Price Fall By March 2027

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Will Crude Oil Become Cheaper Than Water? Experts See A Massive Price Fall By March 2027


New Delhi: Crude oil prices in the international market could soon fall below the cost of a bottle of drinking water, and this is not an exaggeration. According to projections by global brokerage giant JP Morgan, Brent crude could drop to $30 per barrel by March 2027.

If converted to Indian rupees at an estimated exchange rate of Rs 95 per dollar, the price of one barrel would come to roughly Rs 2,850. Given that a barrel contains 159 litres, this would bring the cost of one litre of crude to just Rs 17.90, cheaper than the average price of bottled water in Delhi, which presently ranges between Rs 18 and Rs 20 per litre.

A Major Price Drop

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JP Morgan’s forecast is significant for countries that rely heavily on crude imports. The firm estimates that Brent crude could fall more than 50% from present levels, which are hovering just above $62 per barrel. The expected decline is primarily due to a surge in global supply that could exceed demand.

Even though global oil consumption is projected to rise steadily over the next three years, supply growth, particularly from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan & South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore), is expected to outpace demand. This supply glut is likely to put considerable downward pressure on prices.

Global Demand, Supply Dynamics

In 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd), reaching a total consumption of 105.5 mbpd. Growth is predicted to remain steady in 2026 and could rise to 1.2 mbpd in 2027.

However, JP Morgan forecasts that supply growth will significantly exceed these demand hikes. In 2025 and 2026, supply could expand nearly three times faster than demand. By 2027, supply will continue to outpace consumption, creating an oversupply that could depress prices further.

Non-OPEC+ Drives Oil Supply Boom

One of the key drivers of this oversupply will be production from non-OPEC+ countries. JP Morgan highlights that roughly half of the expected supply surplus by 2027 will come from outside the traditional OPEC+ coalition (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea), fuelled by steady offshore growth and global shale production.

Once considered a high-cost cyclical sector, offshore oil has now become a reliable low-cost growth engine. JP Morgan projects offshore additions of 0.5 mbpd in 2025, 0.9 mbpd in 2026 and 0.4 mbpd in 2027.

Most floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) units required for this expansion have already been approved, making this growth highly probable.

Shale, Other Key Supply Sources

Shale oil remains the most flexible lever in global supply. While US shale growth is slowing, efficiency and productivity improvements continue to support output. In addition, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region has emerged as a low-cost scalable source thanks to improvements in export infrastructure.

Global shale supply is expected to increase by 0.8 mbpd in 2025. Assuming prices remain around $50 per barrel, production could grow by another 0.4 mbpd in 2026 and 0.5 mbpd in 2027. This surge in supply has already contributed to a rise in global inventories, which increased by 1.5 mbpd this year alone, including roughly 1 mbpd in floating storage and Chinese stockpiles.

JP Morgan expects this surplus layer to continue through 2026, with inventories potentially reaching 2.8 mbpd in 2026 and 2.7 mbpd in 2027 if no supply adjustments are made.

How $30 Per Barrel Could Happen

This imbalance could push Brent crude below $60 in 2026, possibly dropping to around $50 in the final quarter of the year. Average prices could fall to $42 by 2027, with end-of-year levels approaching $30 per barrel.

While supply cuts could be used to stabilise prices, hitting $30 would be challenging. The forecast suggests Brent could trade around $58 per barrel in 2026, slightly below current levels above $60.

Impact On Petrol, Diesel Prices In India

Such a dramatic fall in crude prices would be a major benefit for India. Petrol and diesel prices could drop substantially, easing the burden on consumers.

At present, Brent crude imports cost India over Rs 5,600 per barrel due to both price and rupee depreciation. By 2027, even if the rupee weakens to Rs 100 per dollar, the cost per barrel would still fall to around Rs 3,000 (roughly Rs 2,600 cheaper than current levels).

This provides ample room for the government and oil companies to reduce retail fuel prices.



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Key Financial Deadlines That Have Been Extended For December 2025; Know The Last Date

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Key Financial Deadlines That Have Been Extended For December 2025; Know The Last Date


New Delhi: Several crucial deadlines have been extended in December 2025, including ITR for tax audit cases, ITR filing and PAN and Aadhaar linking. These deadlines will be crucial in ensuring that your financial affairs operate smoothly in the months ahead.

Here is a quick rundown of the important deadlines for December to help you stay compliant and avoid last-minute hassles.

ITR deadline for tax audit cases

The Central Board of Direct Taxes has extended the due date of furnishing of return of income under sub-Section (1) of Section 139 of the Act for the Assessment Year 2025-26 which is October 31, 2025 in the case of assessees referred in clause (a) of Explanation 2 to sub-Section (1) of Section 139 of the Act, to December 10, 2025.

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Belated ITR filing deadline

A belated ITR filing happens when an ITR is submitted after the original due date which is permitted by Section 139(4) of the Income Tax Act. Filing a belated return helps you meet your tax obligations, but it involves penalties. You can only file a belated return for FY 2024–25 until December 31, 2025. However, there will be a late fee and interest charged.

PAN and Aadhaar linking deadline

The Income Tax Department has extended the deadline to link their PAN with Aadhaar card to December 31, 2025 for anyone who acquired their PAN using an Aadhaar enrolment ID before October 1, 2024. If you miss this deadline your PAN will become inoperative which will have an impact on your banking transactions, income tax return filing and other financial investments.



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Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty Hit Record Highs; Bank Nifty Climbs 60,000 For The First Time

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Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty Hit Record Highs; Bank Nifty Climbs 60,000 For The First Time


Stock Market News Live Updates: Indian equity benchmarks opened with a strong gap-up on Monday, December 1, touching fresh record highs, buoyed by a sharp acceleration in Q2FY26 GDP growth to a six-quarter peak of 8.2%. Positive cues from Asian markets further lifted investor sentiment.

The BSE Sensex was trading at 85,994, up 288 points or 0.34%, after touching an all-time high of 86,159 in early deals. The Nifty 50 stood at 26,290, higher by 87 points or 0.33%, after scaling a record intraday high of 26,325.8.

Broader markets also saw gains, with the Midcap index rising 0.27% and the Smallcap index advancing 0.52%.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty Bank hit a historic milestone by crossing the 60,000 mark for the first time, gaining 0.4% to touch a fresh peak of 60,114.05.

Meanwhile, the Metal and PSU Bank indices climbed 0.8% each in early trade.

Global cues

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on Monday as traders assessed fresh Chinese manufacturing data and increasingly priced in the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now assigning an 87.4 per cent probability to a rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting.

China’s factory activity unexpectedly slipped back into contraction in November, with the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI by S&P Global easing to 49.9, below expectations of 50.5, as weak domestic demand persisted.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1.6 per cent, while the broader Topix declined 0.86 per cent. In South Korea, the Kospi dropped 0.30 per cent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.31 per cent.

US stock futures were steady in early Asian trade after a positive week on Wall Street. On Friday, in a shortened post-Thanksgiving session, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.65 per cent to 23,365.69, its fifth consecutive day of gains.

The S&P 500 rose 0.54 per cent to 6,849.09, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 289.30 points, or 0.61 per cent, to close at 47,716.42.



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Global Conflicts Drive Arms Industry to $679 Billion Record Revenues – SUCH TV

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Global Conflicts Drive Arms Industry to 9 Billion Record Revenues – SUCH TV



Sales by the world’s top 100 arms makers reached a record $679 billion last year, as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza fueled demand, according to researchers. Production challenges, however, continued to hamper timely deliveries.

The figure represents a 5.9 percent increase from the previous year, and over the 2015–2024 period, revenues for the top 100 arms makers have grown by 26 percent, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“Last year, global arms revenues reached the highest level ever recorded by SIPRI, as producers capitalized on strong demand,” said Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher with the SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme.

Regional Trends

According to SIPRI researcher Jade Guiberteau Ricard, the growth is mostly driven by Europe, though all regions saw increases except Asia and Oceania.

The surge in Europe is linked to the war in Ukraine and heightened security concerns regarding Russia.

Countries supporting Ukraine and replenishing their stockpiles have also contributed to rising demand.

Ricard added that many European nations are now seeking to modernize and expand their militaries, creating a new source of demand.

US and European Arms Makers

The United States hosts 39 of the world’s top 100 arms makers, including the top three: Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), and Northrop Grumman. US companies saw combined revenues rise 3.8 percent to $334 billion, nearly half of the global total.

European arms makers (26 companies in the top 100) recorded aggregate revenues of $151 billion, a 13 percent increase.

The Czech company Czechoslovak Group recorded the sharpest rise, with revenues jumping 193 percent to $3.6 billion, benefiting from the Czech Ammunition Initiative, which supplies artillery shells to Ukraine.

However, European producers face challenges in meeting increased demand, as sourcing raw materials has become more difficult.

Companies like Airbus and France’s Safran previously sourced half of their titanium from Russia before 2022 and have had to identify new suppliers.

Additionally, Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals have forced firms such as France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall to restructure supply chains, raising costs.

Russian Arms Industry

Two Russian arms makers, Rostec and United Shipbuilding Corporation, are among the top 100, with combined revenues rising 23 percent to $31.2 billion, despite component shortages caused by international sanctions.

Domestic demand largely offset the decline in exports. However, Russia’s arms industry faces a shortage of skilled labor, limiting its ability to sustain production rates necessary for ongoing military operations.

Israeli weapons still popular

The Asia and Oceania region was the only region to see the overall revenues of the 23 companies based there go down — their combined revenues dropped 1.2 percent to $130 billion.

But the authors stressed that the picture across Asia was varied and the overall drop was the result of by a larger drop among Chinese arms makers.

“A host of corruption allegations in Chinese arms procurement led to major arms contracts being postponed or cancelled in 2024,” Nan Tian, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme, said in a statement.

Tian added that the drop deepened “uncertainty” around China’s efforts to modernise its military.

In contrast, Japanese and South Korean weapons makers saw their revenues increase, also driven by European demand.

Meanwhile, nine of the top 100 arms companies were based in the Middle East, with combined revenues of $31 billion.

The three Israeli arms companies in the ranking accounted for more than half of that, as their combined revenues grew by 16 percent to $16.2 billion.

SIPRI researcher Zubaida Karim noted in a statement that “the growing backlash over Israel’s actions in Gaza seems to have had little impact on interest in Israeli weapons”.



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