New Delhi: Crude oil prices in the international market could soon fall below the cost of a bottle of drinking water, and this is not an exaggeration. According to projections by global brokerage giant JP Morgan, Brent crude could drop to $30 per barrel by March 2027.

If converted to Indian rupees at an estimated exchange rate of Rs 95 per dollar, the price of one barrel would come to roughly Rs 2,850. Given that a barrel contains 159 litres, this would bring the cost of one litre of crude to just Rs 17.90, cheaper than the average price of bottled water in Delhi, which presently ranges between Rs 18 and Rs 20 per litre.

A Major Price Drop

JP Morgan’s forecast is significant for countries that rely heavily on crude imports. The firm estimates that Brent crude could fall more than 50% from present levels, which are hovering just above $62 per barrel. The expected decline is primarily due to a surge in global supply that could exceed demand.

Even though global oil consumption is projected to rise steadily over the next three years, supply growth, particularly from non-OPEC+ countries (Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Malaysia, Sudan & South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei and Singapore), is expected to outpace demand. This supply glut is likely to put considerable downward pressure on prices.

Global Demand, Supply Dynamics

In 2025, global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbpd), reaching a total consumption of 105.5 mbpd. Growth is predicted to remain steady in 2026 and could rise to 1.2 mbpd in 2027.

However, JP Morgan forecasts that supply growth will significantly exceed these demand hikes. In 2025 and 2026, supply could expand nearly three times faster than demand. By 2027, supply will continue to outpace consumption, creating an oversupply that could depress prices further.

Non-OPEC+ Drives Oil Supply Boom

One of the key drivers of this oversupply will be production from non-OPEC+ countries. JP Morgan highlights that roughly half of the expected supply surplus by 2027 will come from outside the traditional OPEC+ coalition (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Gabon, Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea), fuelled by steady offshore growth and global shale production.

Once considered a high-cost cyclical sector, offshore oil has now become a reliable low-cost growth engine. JP Morgan projects offshore additions of 0.5 mbpd in 2025, 0.9 mbpd in 2026 and 0.4 mbpd in 2027.

Most floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) units required for this expansion have already been approved, making this growth highly probable.

Shale, Other Key Supply Sources

Shale oil remains the most flexible lever in global supply. While US shale growth is slowing, efficiency and productivity improvements continue to support output. In addition, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region has emerged as a low-cost scalable source thanks to improvements in export infrastructure.

Global shale supply is expected to increase by 0.8 mbpd in 2025. Assuming prices remain around $50 per barrel, production could grow by another 0.4 mbpd in 2026 and 0.5 mbpd in 2027. This surge in supply has already contributed to a rise in global inventories, which increased by 1.5 mbpd this year alone, including roughly 1 mbpd in floating storage and Chinese stockpiles.

JP Morgan expects this surplus layer to continue through 2026, with inventories potentially reaching 2.8 mbpd in 2026 and 2.7 mbpd in 2027 if no supply adjustments are made.

How $30 Per Barrel Could Happen

This imbalance could push Brent crude below $60 in 2026, possibly dropping to around $50 in the final quarter of the year. Average prices could fall to $42 by 2027, with end-of-year levels approaching $30 per barrel.

While supply cuts could be used to stabilise prices, hitting $30 would be challenging. The forecast suggests Brent could trade around $58 per barrel in 2026, slightly below current levels above $60.

Impact On Petrol, Diesel Prices In India

Such a dramatic fall in crude prices would be a major benefit for India. Petrol and diesel prices could drop substantially, easing the burden on consumers.

At present, Brent crude imports cost India over Rs 5,600 per barrel due to both price and rupee depreciation. By 2027, even if the rupee weakens to Rs 100 per dollar, the cost per barrel would still fall to around Rs 3,000 (roughly Rs 2,600 cheaper than current levels).

This provides ample room for the government and oil companies to reduce retail fuel prices.